Fabricación de bloques de tierra comprimida con adición de residuos de construcción y demolición como reemplazo del agregado pétreo convencional

The present article suggests an alternative that contributes to give a step towards the continuos cycle of Recycling-Fabrication-Use-Recycling from considering the possibility of understating debris as a raw material for new processes, thus reducing the extraction of materials -- To that end this article suggests the fabrication of compressed earth blocks from the use of the resulting earth from construction and demolition (C&D) debris as aggregates, this way substituting the use of traditional aggregates completely -- Blocks with RCD addition comply with the physical and mechanical specifications established by the Colombian technical standardEl presente artículo plantea una alternativa que contribuye a dar un paso hacia el ciclo continuo Reciclaje-Fabricación-Uso-Reciclaje, a partir de contemplar la posibilidad de entender los residuos como materia prima de nuevos procesos, disminuyendo a su vez la extracción de materiales -- Para ello se propone la fabricación de bloques de tierra comprimida a partir de la utilización de la tierra resultante del proceso de excavación y la adición de Residuos de Construcción y Demolición (RCD) como agregado, sustituyendo la totalidad del agregado tradicionalmente utilizado -- Los bloques con adición RCD, cumplieron con las especificaciones físicas y mecánicas establecidas por la Norma Técnica Colombian

De las sinapsis biológicas a las sinapsis sociales

Introduction: Tuberculosis (TB) is the world’s most lethal infectious disease. Actions to prevent and treat TB depend on beliefs about it. The purpose of the paper is to understand the emergence of belief from the perspective of cognitive neuroscience and the role of belief in tuberculosis. Methodology: Narrative review of literature. From a methodological point of view, articles that met the following inclusion criteria were selected: a) published between 1970 and 2017; b) judge beliefs about tuberculosis; c) be retrieved in full text from a peer-reviewed journal; and d) published in English or Spanish. Results: Beliefs about tuberculosis mediate the relationship between health and disease. In different contexts and human groups. Patients and health personnel have opposing theories about TB: intuitive theories in the first case and scientific theories in the second case Discussion: Cultural sensitivity to disease to reveal erroneous beliefs, coupled with a high level of knowledge on the part of health personnel, is a powerful tool for tackling TB disease.PublishedIntroducción: La tuberculosis (TB) es la enfermedad infecciosa más letal del mundo. Las acciones para prevenir y tratar la TB dependen de las creencias sobre ella. El propósito del escrito es comprender el surgimiento de la creencia desde la perspectiva de la neuorociencia cognitiva y el rol de la creencia en la tuberculosis. Metodología: Revisión narrativa de literatura. Desde un punto de vista metodológico los artículos que cumplieron los siguientes criterios de inclusión fueron seleccionados: a) publicados entre 1970 y 2017; b) que juzga las creencias sobre tuberculosis; c) ser recuperado a texto completo de una revista revisada por pares, y d) publicados en inglés o español. Resultados: Las creencias sobre tuberculosis median la relación entre salud y enfermedad en diferentes contextos y grupos humanos. Los pacientes y el personal de salud tienen teorías opuestas sobre la TB: teorías intuitivas en el primer caso y teorías científicas en el segundo caso Discusión: La sensibilidad cultural hacia la enfermedad para develar las creencias erradas, sumado a un alto conocimiento por parte del personal de salud son herramientas potentes para abordar la enfermedad de TB

FUNCIONES EJECUTIVAS EN ADULTOS JÓVENES DE 19 A 24 AÑOS CON CÁNCER DE MAMA: REVISIÓN EXPLORATORIA DE LITERATURA ENTRE 2015 Y 2020

With the growth and aging of the population, along with economic growth and changes in lifestyles associated with increased quality of life, the main burden of disease shifted from infectious diseases to noncommunicable and complex diseases. However, it is cancer that has increased its incidence in the world population, especially in low- and middle-income countries, where 70% of cancer deaths occur.  The research is articulated to sustainable development goal three, in particular on the effect of cancer on cognitive functioning, because cancer pain impairs cognitive functioning. A simple review for executive functions and breast cancer in PROSPERO indicated an absence of reviews on this topic. Reason why, our aim is to describe executive functions and treatment effect by chemotherapy/radiotherapy in young adult breast cancer patients between 2015 and 2020 in the scientific literature. Materials and methods: exploratory literature review according to PRISMA protocol for exploratory reviews. Articles published in Scopus, PubMed, ScienceDirect, scielo, google academic, in Spanish, English, French. With the keywords: ("Executive Function") AND ("Neoplasms") OR "breast cancer" OR "Drug Therapy," AND ("Young Adult"), searches were performed until February 4, 2020. Results: 16 articles included in the review. Clinical and methodological heterogeneity was found on patients' executive functions and treatment. However, we did find executive function impairment among patients assessed by both treatment and cancer. Conclusions: A systematic review on the subject and meta-analysis are suggested to identify the effect size, accompanied by the statistical evidence identified in the studies. Colombia could investigate this topic because there is no Colombian research.Con el crecimiento y envejecimiento de la población, junto al crecimiento económico y los cambios en los estilos de vida asociados al incremento en la calidad de vida, la principal carga de morbilidad pasó de las enfermedades infecciosas a las no transmisibles y complejas. Sin embargo, es el cáncer incrementó su incidencia en la población mundial, especialmente en países de ingresos bajos y medios, dónde el 70% de las muertes por cáncer se presentan.  La investigación se articula al objetivo de desarrollo sostenible tres, en particular sobre el efecto del cáncer sobre el funcionamiento cognitivo, debido a que el dolor por cáncer deteriora el funcionamiento cognitivo. Una revisión sencilla por funciones ejecutivas y cáncer de mama en PROSPERO indicó una ausencia de revisiones en este tema. Razón por la cual, nuestro objetivo es describir las funciones ejecutivas y el efecto del tratamiento por quimioterapia/radioterapia en pacientes con cáncer de mama en adultos jóvenes entre 2015 y 2020 en la literatura científica. Materiales y métodos: Revisión exploratoria de literatura según protocolo PRISMA para revisiones exploratorias. Artículos publicados en Scopus, PubMed, ScienceDirect, scielo, google académico, en idioma español, inglés, francés. Con las palabras clave: ("Executive Function") AND ("Neoplasms") OR “breast cancer” OR “Drug Therapy,” AND ("Young Adult"), las búsquedas se realizaron hasta el 4 de febrero de 2020. Resultados: 16 artículos incluidos en la revisión. Se encontró heterogeneidad clínica y metodológica sobre las funciones ejecutivas de los pacientes y el tratamiento. Sin embargo, sí se encontró afectación de funciones ejecutivas entre los pacientes evaluados tanto por el tratamiento cómo por el cáncer. Conclusiones: Se sugiere una revisión sistemática sobre el tema y meta-análisis para identificar el tamaño del efecto, acompañado de la evidencia estadística identificada en los estudios. Colombia podría investigar sobre esta temática debido a que no hay investigaciones colombianas.Com o crescimento e o envelhecimento da população, juntamente com o desenvolvimento económico e as mudanças nos estilos de vida associadas ao aumento da qualidade de vida, o principal fardo da doença mudou de doenças infecciosas para doenças não transmissíveis e complexas. No entanto, é o câncer que aumentou a sua incidência na população mundial, especialmente nos países de baixa e média renda, onde 70% das mortes por câncer ocorrem. A pesquisa está articulada com o Objectivo de Desenvolvimento Sustentável 3, em particular sobre o efeito do câncer sobre o funcionamento cognitivo, porque a dor do cancro prejudica a função cognitiva. Uma simples revisão para funções executivas e câncer de mama em PROSPERO indicou uma ausência de comentários sobre este tópico. A razão pela qual, nosso objetivo é descrever as funções executivas e o efeito do tratamento por quimioterapia/radioterapia em pacientes jovens adultos com câncer de mama entre 2015 e 2020 na literatura científica. Materiais e métodos: revisão da literatura exploratória de acordo com o protocolo PRISMA para revisões exploratórias. Artigos publicados em Scopus, PubMed, ScienceDirect, scielo, google academic, em espanhol, inglês, francês. Com as palavras-chave: ("Função Executiva") E ("Neoplasmas") OU "câncer de mama" OU" Terapia de drogas," E ("Jovem Adulto"), as pesquisas foram realizadas até 4 de fevereiro de 2020. Resultados: 16 artigos incluídos na revisão. Foi encontrada heterogeneidade clínica e metodológica nas funções executivas e no tratamento dos pacientes. No entanto, descobrimos que a função executiva foi prejudicada entre os pacientes avaliados tanto pelo tratamento como pelo câncer. Conclusões: Sugere-se uma revisão sistemática do assunto e meta-análise para identificar o tamanho do efeito, acompanhada das provas estatísticas identificadas nos estudos. A Colômbia poderia investigar este assunto porque não há pesquisa colombiana

Nutritional Status of Older Adults in Antioquia and its Relationship with Diseases and Medication Use

Introduction: Nutritional status (NS) of older adults (OA) can be affected by aging as well as by diseases and medication use. Objective: To determine the NS of OA in Antioquia and its relationship with diseases and medication use. Methods: A cross-sectional study derived from the 2018-2019 Antioquia Food and Nutrition Profile (PANA) was conducted. Information from 1816 OA was collected regarding sociodemographic aspects, NS, diseases, and medication use. Binary logistic regression was applied to establish the association of NS with multimorbidity and polypharmacy. Results: The majority of OA were female, aged 60-69, and of low educational and socioeconomic status. About 38.5% of OA were overweight, and 20.3% were underweight; according to the Mini Nutritional Assessment (MNA), 33.7% were at risk of malnutrition, and 3.5% were already malnourished. Based on calf circumference, 13.5% were at potential risk of malnutrition, and according to waist circumference, 51.8% had abdominal obesity. Multimorbidity was observed in 49.8% of OA, and polypharmacy in 29.6%. After adjusting for socioeconomic variables, statistically significant associations persisted between multimorbidity and risk of malnutrition (OR = 1.76), malnutrition as per MNA (OR = 5.25), and abdominal obesity (OR = 1.57). Concerning polypharmacy, significant associations were found with the risk of malnutrition as per MNA (OR = 2.04) and abdominal obesity (OR = 1.61). Conclusions: In OA, the risk of malnutrition and abdominal obesity increases multimorbidity and polypharmacy, while malnutrition is only associated with a higher number of diseases

Complicaciones postquirúrgicas de reemplazo de válvula aórtica en personas de mediana edad: una revisión exploratoria de literatura

Introduction: Cardiovascular Disease (CVD) is the world's leading cause of death, claiming the lives of approximately 18 million people each year, 80% of them in low- and middle-income countries . We say that it is the most difficult intervention because of its cardiac and vascular anatomical composition. Its injury would be extremely dangerous because it would compromise the circulatory and respiratory system, which would generate an aggravation of the patient or his death. That is why the WHO in 2016 calculated the number of deaths attributed to cardiovascular diseases for Colombia at 83,987, added to the post-surgical complications derived from them. The causes that affect the heart and especially the aortic valve range from circulatory difficulty to mechanical failure, so we know that every year more people die from cardiovascular diseases (CVD) than from any other cause. This means the high need and demand for a surgical intervention; indispensable to safeguard the life of patients, for this reason we wonder what are the post-surgical complications of aortic valve replacement surgery in middle-aged people? Objective: To identify the types of post-surgical complications of aortic valve replacement in middle-aged people in the first six months after surgery. Methodology: PRISMA protocol for exploratory literature reviews and its extension for exploratory literature reviews. Methodological quality was assessed with PEDro, and study characteristics were extracted independently. Result: 28 studies included in the review, with scores between 6 and 9, of good and excellent methodological quality. The most frequent post-surgical complications were surgical reintervention, post-surgical bleeding, thrombosis or thromboembolism. Conclusion: Complications of aortic valve replacement are frequent in the middle-aged population.Introducción: Las Enfermedades Cardiovasculares (ECV) son la principal causa mundial de muerte, y cobran la vida de aproximadamente 18 millones de personas cada año, el 80% de ellas en países de ingresos bajos y medios . Decimos que es la intervención con mayor dificultad por su compuesto anatómico cardiaco y vascular. Su lesión sería sumamente peligrosa porque comprometería el sistema circulatorio y respiratorio, lo cual generaría un agravamiento del paciente o su fallecimiento. Por eso la OMS en el 2016 calculó el número de muertes atribuidas a enfermedades cardiovasculares para Colombia en 83.987, sumado a las complicaciones postquirúrgicas derivadas de ellas. Las causas que afectan al corazón y especialmente la válvula aórtica van desde una dificultad circulatoria hasta una falla mecánica, por lo que sabemos que cada año mueren más personas por enfermedades cardiovasculares (ECV) que por cualquier otra causa. Lo que significa la alta necesidad y demanda de una intervención quirúrgica, la cual es indispensable para salvaguardar la vida de los pacientes, por esta razón nos preguntamos ¿cuáles son las complicaciones postquirúrgicas de una cirugía de reemplazo de válvula aórtica en personas de mediana edad en el primer semestre post cirugía? Objetivo: Identificar los tipos de complicaciones postquirúrgicas de reemplazo de válvula aórtica en personas de mediana edad en el primer semestre post cirugía Metodología: Protocolo PRISMA para revisiones exploratorias de literatura y su extensión para revisiones exploratorias de literatura. Se evaluó la calidad metodológica con PEDro, y se extrajeron de forma independiente las características de los estudios. Resultado: 28 estudios incluidos en la revisión, con puntuaciones entre 6 y 9, de calidad metodológica buena y excelente. Las complicaciones postquirúrgicas más frecuentes fueron: reintervención quirúrgica, hemorragias post cirugía, trombosis o tromboembolismo. Conclusión: Las complicaciones por reemplazo de válvula aortica son frecuentes entre la población de mediana edad.Introdução: A doença cardiovascular é a principal causa de morte no mundo, causando a morte de cerca de 18 milhões de pessoas a cada ano, 80% dos quais em países de baixa e média renda. Dizemos que é a intervenção mais difícil devido à sua composição anatômica cardíaca e vascular. Sua lesão seria extremamente perigosa porque comprometeria o sistema circulatório e respiratório, o que geraria um agravamento do paciente ou sua morte. É por isso que a OMS calculou em 2016 o número de mortes atribuídas a doenças cardiovasculares para a Colômbia em 83.987, acrescido das complicações pós-cirúrgicas derivadas delas. As causas que afetam o coração e especialmente a válvula aórtica variam de dificuldade circulatória a falha mecânica, por isso sabemos que a cada ano mais pessoas morrem de doenças cardiovasculares (CVD) do que de qualquer outra causa. Isto significa a alta necessidade e demanda de uma intervenção cirúrgica; indispensável para salvaguardar a vida dos pacientes, por esta razão nos perguntamos quais são as complicações pós-cirúrgicas da cirurgia de substituição da válvula aórtica em pessoas de meia-idade? Objectivo: Identificar os tipos de complicações pós-cirúrgicas da substituição da válvula aórtica em pessoas de meia-idade nos primeiros seis meses após a cirurgia. Metodologia: Protocolo PRISMA para a revisão da literatura exploratória e sua extensão para as revisões exploratórias da literatura. A qualidade metodológica foi avaliada com PEDro, e as características do estudo foram extraídas de forma independente. Resultado: 28 estudos incluídos na revisão, com pontuações entre 6 e 9, de boa e excelente qualidade metodológica. As complicações pós-cirúrgicas mais frequentes foram reintervenção cirúrgica, hemorragia pós - cirurgia, trombose ou tromboembolismo. Conclusão: As complicações da substituição da válvula aórtica são frequentes na população de meia-idade

Estudio del modelamiento de la calidad del agua del Río Sinú, Colombia.

En este estudio se presenta la modelación de la calidad del agua en el río Sinú, Colombia, en el tramo central entre la central hidroeléctrica de Urrá y la desembocadura al mar Caribe, usando el modelo QUAL2KW que incorpora el algoritmo genético PIKAIA, que permite la calibración de las constantes cinéticas. Específicamente, se presenta la metodología usada para la caracterización hidráulica, la segmentación de la corriente y el uso del método de muestreo Monte-Carlo para determinar los parámetros de calidad de agua de mayor sensibilidad, y demostrar que el modelo QUAL2KW no pudo ser calibrado para el río Sinú con la información de campo disponible, debido a que varias combinaciones de los parámetros producen soluciones igualmente óptimas

Pensamiento crítico, metacognición y aspectos motivacionales: una educación de calidad

Este artículo propone una revisión sobre: metacognición, motivación y pensamiento crítico como una reflexión a los procesos de enseñanza–aprendizaje en la formación de sujetos. El análisis teórico evidenció que el desarrollo del pensamiento crítico, a partir del fomento de estrategias metacognitivas y aspectos motivacionales del estudiante, garantizan un ambiente flexible para aprender–aprender, y con ello garantizar la calidad en la educación. De esta manera en los ambientes educativos se espera concebir metodologías que conlleven al crecimiento crítico del sujeto, en términos de que cuestionen, analicen y reconozcan la realidad social en la cual están inmersos

Evaluación del neurodesarrollo en niños con exposición intrauterina al virus del Zika: estudio observacional transversal

El virus del Zika produce desenlaces adversos para el desarrollo del sistema nervioso. Este estudio describe el neurodesarrollo cognitivo, adaptativo, comunicativo, social y motor de niños expuestos intrauterinamente al virus del Zika y hace una evaluación del neurodesarrollo con la escala de Battelle a los tres años después del nacimiento. Participaron 30 niños con una media de edad al momento de la evaluación de 37,5 (RIC: 35,7–39,2) meses. Se halló una edad equivalente en meses en las áreas: motora 25,8 (DE: 7,8), adaptativa 26,7 (DE: 5,8), comunicativa 30,2 (DE: 6,9), personal social 33,5 (DE: 8,3) y cognitiva 35,6 (DE: 5,9). Los niños presentaron retraso en el desarrollo para la edad cronológica, 25 niños presentaban retraso en una de las cinco áreas evaluadas. Una alta proporción de niños expuestos al virus del Zika durante la gestación presentaron retraso en el desarrollo, principalmente en el dominio adaptativo y motor

Estudios de la tuberculosis desde la Sucursal del Cielo

PublishedEste libro está dirigido a la comunidad académica, científica y en general a aquellas personas interesadas en ampliar sus conocimientos sobre la tuberculosis. Iniciamos con una revisión general de la evolución de las metodologías diagnósticas. Posteriormente, destacamos diferentes trabajos de investigación realizados en Cali y el Valle del Cauca en torno a la tuberculosis, resaltando herramientas empleadas para la vigilancia epidemiológica de la enfermedad, así como el estudio de la tuberculosis en población vulnerable (tuberculosis infantil y la incidencia de esta enfermedad en trabajadores de la salud en los últimos años en Cali). Este libro resalta la necesidad de entender el enfoque humano que rodea esta enfermedad, en esa dirección los dos últimos capítulos los enfocamos en las creencias sobre la tuberculosis y la interacción del paciente con las entidades prestadoras de servicios de salud. Esperamos que nuestro libro genere importantes aportes a aquellos que se involucran en el estudio de esta enfermedad que ha acompañado al hombre probablemente desde su presencia en el planeta y sea, además, el insumo de futuros investigadores en las diversas áreas del conocimiento que confluyen en el entendimiento de esta enfermedad infecciosa

Burden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories, 2022–2050: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Future trends in disease burden and drivers of health are of great interest to policy makers and the public at large. This information can be used for policy and long-term health investment, planning, and prioritisation. We have expanded and improved upon previous forecasts produced as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) and provide a reference forecast (the most likely future), and alternative scenarios assessing disease burden trajectories if selected sets of risk factors were eliminated from current levels by 2050. Methods: Using forecasts of major drivers of health such as the Socio-demographic Index (SDI; a composite measure of lag-distributed income per capita, mean years of education, and total fertility under 25 years of age) and the full set of risk factor exposures captured by GBD, we provide cause-specific forecasts of mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by age and sex from 2022 to 2050 for 204 countries and territories, 21 GBD regions, seven super-regions, and the world. All analyses were done at the cause-specific level so that only risk factors deemed causal by the GBD comparative risk assessment influenced future trajectories of mortality for each disease. Cause-specific mortality was modelled using mixed-effects models with SDI and time as the main covariates, and the combined impact of causal risk factors as an offset in the model. At the all-cause mortality level, we captured unexplained variation by modelling residuals with an autoregressive integrated moving average model with drift attenuation. These all-cause forecasts constrained the cause-specific forecasts at successively deeper levels of the GBD cause hierarchy using cascading mortality models, thus ensuring a robust estimate of cause-specific mortality. For non-fatal measures (eg, low back pain), incidence and prevalence were forecasted from mixed-effects models with SDI as the main covariate, and YLDs were computed from the resulting prevalence forecasts and average disability weights from GBD. Alternative future scenarios were constructed by replacing appropriate reference trajectories for risk factors with hypothetical trajectories of gradual elimination of risk factor exposure from current levels to 2050. The scenarios were constructed from various sets of risk factors: environmental risks (Safer Environment scenario), risks associated with communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases (CMNNs; Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination scenario), risks associated with major non-communicable diseases (NCDs; Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario), and the combined effects of these three scenarios. Using the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways climate scenarios SSP2-4.5 as reference and SSP1-1.9 as an optimistic alternative in the Safer Environment scenario, we accounted for climate change impact on health by using the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change temperature forecasts and published trajectories of ambient air pollution for the same two scenarios. Life expectancy and healthy life expectancy were computed using standard methods. The forecasting framework includes computing the age-sex-specific future population for each location and separately for each scenario. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for each individual future estimate were derived from the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of distributions generated from propagating 500 draws through the multistage computational pipeline. Findings: In the reference scenario forecast, global and super-regional life expectancy increased from 2022 to 2050, but improvement was at a slower pace than in the three decades preceding the COVID-19 pandemic (beginning in 2020). Gains in future life expectancy were forecasted to be greatest in super-regions with comparatively low life expectancies (such as sub-Saharan Africa) compared with super-regions with higher life expectancies (such as the high-income super-region), leading to a trend towards convergence in life expectancy across locations between now and 2050. At the super-region level, forecasted healthy life expectancy patterns were similar to those of life expectancies. Forecasts for the reference scenario found that health will improve in the coming decades, with all-cause age-standardised DALY rates decreasing in every GBD super-region. The total DALY burden measured in counts, however, will increase in every super-region, largely a function of population ageing and growth. We also forecasted that both DALY counts and age-standardised DALY rates will continue to shift from CMNNs to NCDs, with the most pronounced shifts occurring in sub-Saharan Africa (60·1% [95% UI 56·8–63·1] of DALYs were from CMNNs in 2022 compared with 35·8% [31·0–45·0] in 2050) and south Asia (31·7% [29·2–34·1] to 15·5% [13·7–17·5]). This shift is reflected in the leading global causes of DALYs, with the top four causes in 2050 being ischaemic heart disease, stroke, diabetes, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, compared with 2022, with ischaemic heart disease, neonatal disorders, stroke, and lower respiratory infections at the top. The global proportion of DALYs due to YLDs likewise increased from 33·8% (27·4–40·3) to 41·1% (33·9–48·1) from 2022 to 2050, demonstrating an important shift in overall disease burden towards morbidity and away from premature death. The largest shift of this kind was forecasted for sub-Saharan Africa, from 20·1% (15·6–25·3) of DALYs due to YLDs in 2022 to 35·6% (26·5–43·0) in 2050. In the assessment of alternative future scenarios, the combined effects of the scenarios (Safer Environment, Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination, and Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenarios) demonstrated an important decrease in the global burden of DALYs in 2050 of 15·4% (13·5–17·5) compared with the reference scenario, with decreases across super-regions ranging from 10·4% (9·7–11·3) in the high-income super-region to 23·9% (20·7–27·3) in north Africa and the Middle East. The Safer Environment scenario had its largest decrease in sub-Saharan Africa (5·2% [3·5–6·8]), the Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario in north Africa and the Middle East (23·2% [20·2–26·5]), and the Improved Nutrition and Vaccination scenario in sub-Saharan Africa (2·0% [–0·6 to 3·6]). Interpretation: Globally, life expectancy and age-standardised disease burden were forecasted to improve between 2022 and 2050, with the majority of the burden continuing to shift from CMNNs to NCDs. That said, continued progress on reducing the CMNN disease burden will be dependent on maintaining investment in and policy emphasis on CMNN disease prevention and treatment. Mostly due to growth and ageing of populations, the number of deaths and DALYs due to all causes combined will generally increase. By constructing alternative future scenarios wherein certain risk exposures are eliminated by 2050, we have shown that opportunities exist to substantially improve health outcomes in the future through concerted efforts to prevent exposure to well established risk factors and to expand access to key health interventions