Why didn't the Global Financial Crisis hit Latin America?

Latin America has a rich history of financial crises. However, it was relatively unharmed by the 2007-2009 Global Financial Crisis (GFC). This paper investigates why, and in particular the role of commodity prices and its institutional framework - in line with the fourth generation financial crisis model. We set up Early Warning Systems (EWS) for Argentina, Brazil and Mexico. These consist of an ordered logit model for currency crises for the period 1990-2007 with a dynamic factor model to deal with the large number of explanatory variables. We present forecasts for the period 2008-2009. We find that international indicators play an important role in explaining currency crises in Mexico, while banking indicators and commodities explain the currency crisis in Argentina and Brazil. Furthermore, debt and domestic economy indicators are relevant for Argentina and Mexico. Finally, we observe that currency crises in all three countries are related to institutional indicators. For none of the countries the Early Warning System would have issued an early warning for the GFC.Financial crises, Early Warning Systems, Latin America, dynamic factor models, ordered logit model,

Advantages and Disadvantages of Techniques for Transforming and Analyzing Chiropteran Echolocation Calls

Bat researchers currently use a variety of techniques that transform echolocation calls into audible frequencies and allow the spectral content of a signal to be viewed and analyzed. All techniques have limitations and an understanding of how each works and the effect on the signal being analyzed are vital for correct interpretation. The 3 most commonly used techniques for transforming frequencies of a call are heterodyne, frequency division, and time expansion. Three techniques for viewing spectral content of a signal are zero-crossing, Fourier analysis, and instantaneous frequency analysis. It is important for bat researchers to be familiar with the advantages and disadvantages of each techniqu

Astrochemistry of Sub-Millimeter Sources in Orion: Studying the Variations of Molecular Tracers with Changing Physical Conditions

Cornerstone molecules (CO, H_2CO, CH_3OH, HCN, HNC, CN, CS, SO) were observed toward seven sub-millimeter bright sources in the Orion molecular cloud in order to quantify the range of conditions for which individual molecular line tracers provide physical and chemical information. Five of the sources observed were protostellar, ranging in energetics from 1 - 500L_sun, while the other two sources were located at a shock front and within a photodissociation region (PDR). Statistical equilibrium calculations were used to deduce from the measured line strengths the physical conditions within each source and the abundance of each molecule. In all cases except the shock and the PDR, the abundance of CO with respect to H_2 appears significantly below (factor of ten) the general molecular cloud value of 10^-4. {Formaldehyde measurements were used to estimate a mean temperature and density for the gas in each source. Evidence was found for trends between the derived abundance of CO, H_2CO, CH_3OH, and CS and the energetics of the source, with hotter sources having higher abundances.} Determining whether this is due to a linear progression of abundance with temperature or sharp jumps at particular temperatures will require more detailed modeling. The observed methanol transitions require high temperatures (T>50 K), and thus energetic sources, within all but one of the observed protostellar sources. The same conclusion is obtained from observations of the CS 7-6 transition. Analysis of the HCN and HNC 4-3 transitions provides further support for high densities n> 10^7 cm^-3 in all the protostellar sources.Comment: 36 pages, 8 figures, Astronomy and Astrophysics in pres

Infrared Observations of Hot Gas and Cold Ice toward the Low Mass Protostar Elias 29

We have obtained the full 1-200 um spectrum of the low luminosity (36 Lsun) Class I protostar Elias 29 in the Rho Ophiuchi molecular cloud. It provides a unique opportunity to study the origin and evolution of interstellar ice and the interrelationship of interstellar ice and hot core gases around low mass protostars. We see abundant hot CO and H2O gas, as well as the absorption bands of CO, CO2, H2O and ``6.85 um'' ices. We compare the abundances and physical conditions of the gas and ices toward Elias 29 with the conditions around several well studied luminous, high mass protostars. The high gas temperature and gas/solid ratios resemble those of relatively evolved high mass objects (e.g. GL 2591). However, none of the ice band profiles shows evidence for significant thermal processing, and in this respect Elias 29 resembles the least evolved luminous protostars, such as NGC 7538 : IRS9. Thus we conclude that the heating of the envelope of the low mass object Elias 29 is qualitatively different from that of high mass protostars. This is possibly related to a different density gradient of the envelope or shielding of the ices in a circumstellar disk. This result is important for our understanding of the evolution of interstellar ices, and their relation to cometary ices.Comment: 18 pages and 14 figures, accepted for publication in A&

Water and ammonia abundances in S140 with the Odin satellite

We have used the Odin satellite to obtain strip maps of the ground-state rotational transitions of ortho-water and ortho-ammonia, as well as CO(5-4) and 13CO(5-4) across the PDR, and H218O in the central position. A physi-chemical inhomogeneous PDR model was used to compute the temperature and abundance distributions for water, ammonia and CO. A multi-zone escape probability method then calculated the level populations and intensity distributions. These results are compared to a homogeneous model computed with an enhanced version of the RADEX code. H2O, NH3 and 13CO show emission from an extended PDR with a narrow line width of ~3 kms. Like CO, the water line profile is dominated by outflow emission, however, mainly in the red wing. The PDR model suggests that the water emission mainly arises from the surfaces of optically thick, high density clumps with n(H2)>10^6 cm^-3 and a clump water abundance, with respect to H2, of 5x10^-8. The mean water abundance in the PDR is 5x10^-9, and between ~2x10^-8 -- 2x10^-7 in the outflow derived from a simple two-level approximation. Ammonia is also observed in the extended clumpy PDR, likely from the same high density and warm clumps as water. The average ammonia abundance is about the same as for water: 4x10^-9 and 8x10^-9 given by the PDR model and RADEX, respectively. The similarity of water and ammonia PDR emission is also seen in the almost identical line profiles observed close to the bright rim. Around the central position, ammonia also shows some outflow emission although weaker than water in the red wing. Predictions of the H2O(110-101) and (111-000) antenna temperatures across the PDR are estimated with our PDR model for the forthcoming observations with the Herschel Space Observatory.Comment: 13 pages, 14 figures, 10 tables. Accepted for publication in Astronomy & Astrophysics 14 November 200

The Global Financial Crisis and currency crises in Latin America

The Global Financial Crisis (GFC) has aected many regions including Latin America. This paper focuses on currency crises in Argentina, Brazil and Mexico. We estimate an Early Warning System, consisting of a dynamic factor model and an ordered logit model, with monthly data for 1990-2007. Ex ante forecasts for 2008-2009 do not produce currency crises in the fall of 2008, in sharp contrast with reality. Our model only predicts an increased probability of a currency crisis for Argentina in 2009