Validation of a model to investigate the effects of modifying cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors on the burden of CVD: The rotterdam ischemic heart disease and stroke computer simulation (RISC) model

Background: We developed a Monte Carlo Markov model designed to investigate the effects of modifying cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors on the burden of CVD. Internal, predictive, and external validity of the model have not yet been established.Methods: The Rotterdam Ischemic Heart Disease and Stroke Computer Simulation (RISC) model was developed using data covering 5 years of follow-up from the Rotterdam Study. To prove 1) internal and 2) predictive validity, the incidences of coronary heart disease (CHD), stroke, CVD death, and non-CVD death simulated by the model over a 13-year period were compared with those recorded for 3,478 participants in the Rotterdam Study with at least 13 years of follow-up. 3) External validity was verified using 10 years of follow-up data from the European Prospective Investigation of Cancer (EPIC)-Norfolk study of 25,492 participants, for whom CVD and non-CVD mortality was compared.Results: At year 5, the observed incidences (with simulated incidences in brackets) of CHD, stroke, and CVD and non-CVD mortality for the 3,478 Rotterdam Study participants were 5.30% (4.68%), 3.60% (3.23%), 4.70% (4.80%), and 7.50% (7.96%), respectively. At year 13, these percentages were 10.60% (10.91%), 9.90% (9.13%), 14.20% (15.12%), and 24.30% (23.42%). After recalibrating the model for the EPIC-Norfolk population, the 10-year observed (simulated) incidences of CVD and non-CVD mortality were 3.70% (4.95%) and 6.50% (6.29%). All observed incidences fell well within the 95% credibility intervals of the simulated incidences.Conclusions: We have confirmed the internal, predictive, and external validity of the RISC model. These findings provide a basis for analyzing the effects of modifying cardiovascular disease risk factors on the burden of CVD with the RISC model

Novel Loci for Adiponectin Levels and Their Influence on Type 2 Diabetes and Metabolic Traits : A Multi-Ethnic Meta-Analysis of 45,891 Individuals

J. Kaprio, S. Ripatti ja M.-L. Lokki työryhmien jäseniä.Peer reviewe

Hybrid myocardial perfusion SPECT/CT coronary angiography and invasive coronary angiography in patients with stable angina pectoris lead to similar treatment decisions

Objectives: To evaluate to what extent treatment decisions for patients with stable angina pectoris can be made based on hybrid myocardial perfusion single-photon emission CT (SPECT) and CT coronary angiography (CCTA). It has been shown that hybrid SPECT/CCTA has good performance in the diagnosis of significant coronary artery disease (CAD). The question remains whether these imaging results lead to similar treatment decisions as compared to standalone SPECT and invasive coronary angiography (CA). Methods: We prospectively included 107 patients (mean age 62.8±10.0 years, 69% male) with stable anginal complaints and an intermediate to high pre-test likelihood for CAD. Hybrid SPECT/CCTA was performed prior to CA in all patients. The study outcome was the treatment decision categorised as: no revascularisation, percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) or coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG). Treatment decisions were made by two interventional cardiologists and one cardiothoracic surgeon in two steps: first, based on the results of hybrid SPECT/CCTA; second, based on SPECT and CA. Results: Revascularisation (PCI or CABG) was indicated in 54 (50%) patients based on SPECT and CA. Percentage agreement of treatment decisions in all patients based on hybrid SPECT/CCTA versus SPECT and CA on the necessity of revascularisation was 92%. Percentage agreement of treatment decisions in patients with matched, unmatched and normal hybrid SPECT/CCTA findings was 95%, 84% and 100%, respectively. Conclusions: Panel evaluation shows that patients could be accurately indicated for and deferred from revascularisation based on hybrid SPECT/CCTA

Triglyceride-mediated pathways and coronary disease: collaborative analysis of 101 studies

<p><b>Background</b> <br>Whether triglyceride-mediated pathways are causally relevant to coronary heart disease is uncertain. We studied a genetic variant that regulates triglyceride concentration to help judge likelihood of causality.</br></p> <p><b>Methods</b> <br>We assessed the −1131T>C (rs662799) promoter polymorphism of the apolipoprotein A5 (APOA5) gene in relation to triglyceride concentration, several other risk factors, and risk of coronary heart disease. We compared disease risk for genetically-raised triglyceride concentration (20 842 patients with coronary heart disease, 35 206 controls) with that recorded for equivalent differences in circulating triglyceride concentration in prospective studies (302 430 participants with no history of cardiovascular disease; 12 785 incident cases of coronary heart disease during 2·79 million person-years at risk). We analysed −1131T>C in 1795 people without a history of cardiovascular disease who had information about lipoprotein concentration and diameter obtained by nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy.</br></p> <p><b>Findings</b> <br>The minor allele frequency of −1131T>C was 8% (95% CI 7—9). −1131T>C was not significantly associated with several non-lipid risk factors or LDL cholesterol, and it was modestly associated with lower HDL cholesterol (mean difference per C allele 3·5% [95% CI 2·6—4·6]; 0·053 mmol/L [0·039—0·068]), lower apolipoprotein AI (1·3% [0·3—2·3]; 0·023 g/L [0·005—0·041]), and higher apolipoprotein B (3·2% [1·3—5·1]; 0·027 g/L [0·011—0·043]). By contrast, for every C allele inherited, mean triglyceride concentration was 16·0% (95% CI 12·9—18·7), or 0·25 mmol/L (0·20—0·29), higher (p=4·4×10−24). The odds ratio for coronary heart disease was 1·18 (95% CI 1·11—1·26; p=2·6×10−7) per C allele, which was concordant with the hazard ratio of 1·10 (95% CI 1·08—1·12) per 16% higher triglyceride concentration recorded in prospective studies. −1131T>C was significantly associated with higher VLDL particle concentration (mean difference per C allele 12·2 nmol/L [95% CI 7·7—16·7]; p=9·3×10−8) and smaller HDL particle size (0·14 nm [0·08—0·20]; p=7·0×10−5), factors that could mediate the effects of triglyceride.</br></p> <p><b>Interpretation</b> <br>These data are consistent with a causal association between triglyceride-mediated pathways and coronary heart disease.</br></p> <p><b>Funding</b> <br>British Heart Foundation, UK Medical Research Council, Novartis.</br></p&gt

Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm Is Associated with a Variant in Low-Density Lipoprotein Receptor-Related Protein 1

Abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) is a common cause of morbidity and mortality and has a significant heritability. We carried out a genome-wide association discovery study of 1866 patients with AAA and 5435 controls and replication of promising signals (lead SNP with a p value < 1 × 10−5) in 2871 additional cases and 32,687 controls and performed further follow-up in 1491 AAA and 11,060 controls. In the discovery study, nine loci demonstrated association with AAA (p < 1 × 10−5). In the replication sample, the lead SNP at one of these loci, rs1466535, located within intron 1 of low-density-lipoprotein receptor-related protein 1 (LRP1) demonstrated significant association (p = 0.0042). We confirmed the association of rs1466535 and AAA in our follow-up study (p = 0.035). In a combined analysis (6228 AAA and 49182 controls), rs1466535 had a consistent effect size and direction in all sample sets (combined p = 4.52 × 10−10, odds ratio 1.15 [1.10–1.21]). No associations were seen for either rs1466535 or the 12q13.3 locus in independent association studies of coronary artery disease, blood pressure, diabetes, or hyperlipidaemia, suggesting that this locus is specific to AAA. Gene-expression studies demonstrated a trend toward increased LRP1 expression for the rs1466535 CC genotype in arterial tissues; there was a significant (p = 0.029) 1.19-fold (1.04–1.36) increase in LRP1 expression in CC homozygotes compared to TT homozygotes in aortic adventitia. Functional studies demonstrated that rs1466535 might alter a SREBP-1 binding site and influence enhancer activity at the locus. In conclusion, this study has identified a biologically plausible genetic variant associated specifically with AAA, and we suggest that this variant has a possible functional role in LRP1 expression

Novel loci for adiponectin levels and their influence on type 2 diabetes and metabolic traits: A multi-ethnic meta-analysis of 45,891 individuals

Circulating levels of adiponectin, a hormone produced predominantly by adipocytes, are highly heritable and are inversely associated with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2D) and other metabolic traits. We conducted a meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies in 39,883 individuals of European ancestry to identify genes associated with metabolic disease. We identified 8 novel loci associated with adiponectin levels and confirmed 2 previously reported loci (P = 4.5×10−8- 1.2 ×10−43). Using a novel method to combine data across ethnicities (N = 4,232 African Americans, N = 1,776 Asians, and N = 29,347 Europeans), we identified two additional novel loci. Expression analyses of 436 human adipocyte samples revealed that mRNA levels of 18 genes at candidate regions were associated with adiponectin concentrations after accounting for multiple testing (p<3×10−4). We next developed a multi-SNP genotypic risk score to test the association of adiponectin decreasing risk alleles on metabolic traits and diseases using consortia-level meta-analytic data. This risk score was associated with increased risk of T2D (p = 4.3×10−3, n = 22,044), increased triglycerides (p = 2.6×10−14, n = 93,440), increased waist-to-hip ratio (p = 1.8×10−5, n = 77,167), increased glucose two hours post oral glucose tolerance testing (p = 4.4×10−3, n = 15,234), increased fasting insulin (p = 0.015, n = 48,238), but with lower in HDL- cholesterol concentrations (p = 4.5×10−13, n = 96,748) and decreased BMI (p = 1.4×10−4, n = 121,335). These findings identify novel genetic determinants of adiponectin levels, which, taken together, influence risk of T2D and markers of insulin resistance

Genome-wide association identifies nine common variants associated with fasting proinsulin levels and provides new insights into the pathophysiology of type 2 diabetes

OBJECTIVE - Proinsulin is a precursor of mature insulin and C-peptide. Higher circulating proinsulin levels are associated with impaired b-cell function, raised glucose levels, insulin resistance, and type 2 diabetes (T2D). Studies of the insulin processing pathway could provide new insights about T2D pathophysiology. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS - We have conducted a meta-analysis of genome-wide association tests of ;2.5 million genotyped or imputed single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and fasting proinsulin levels in 10,701 nondiabetic adults of European ancestry, with follow-up of 23 loci in up to 16,378 individuals, using additive genetic models adjusted for age, sex, fasting insulin, and study-specific covariates. RESULTS - Nine SNPs at eight loci were associated with proinsulin levels (P < 5 × 10-8). Two loci (LARP6 and SGSM2) have not been previously related to metabolic traits, one (MADD) has been associated with fasting glucose, one (PCSK1) has been implicated in obesity, and four (TCF7L2, SLC30A8, VPS13C/ C2CD4A/B, and ARAP1, formerly CENTD2) increase T2D risk. The proinsulin-raising allele of ARAP1 was associated with a lower fasting glucose (P = 1.7 3 10-4), improved b-cell function (P = 1.1 × 10-5), and lower risk of T2D (odds ratio 0.88; P = 7.8 × 10-6). Notably, PCSK1 encodes the protein prohormone convertase 1/3, the first enzyme in the insulin processing pathway. A genotype score composed of the nine proinsulin-raising alleles was not associated with coronary disease in two large case-control datasets. CONCLUSIONS - We have identified nine genetic variants associated with fasting proinsulin. Our findings illuminate the biology underlying glucose homeostasis and T2D development in humans and argue against a direct role of proinsulin in coronary artery disease pathogenesis