Mining credit card data

Data mining is the process of finding interesting or valuable structures in large data sets. It is a modern discipline, and takes ideas and methods from statistics, machine learning, data management and other areas. In many ways, it is similar to exploratory data analysis, although the size of current data sets distinguishes between data mining and standard exploratory data analysis. Data mining can pose novel challenges because of the amount of data to be analysed. This thesis is concerned with modelling different aspects of credit card holders' behaviour and detecting patterns in the ways customers use their card accounts. A review of the literature on consumer purchasing behaviour and data mining is given, and for the latter the differing viewpoints of the statistical and the computer science communities are discussed. Two types of models are examined: descriptive models, which describe how customers have been observed to behave; and predictive models, which predict how customers are likely to behave in the future. Both types of model are applied to the main types of credit card use: repayment behaviour and transactional behaviour. Relationships between the two different sorts of behaviour are described, and models are examined which can link the two. Some valuable insights and discoveries of potential commercial value are described. Simple graphical tools are used to illustrate the unearthing of unexpected patterns and relationships, and it is shown how more sophisticated modelling can build on such discoveries

Material Loss at the Head Taper Junction of the Metal-on-Metal Pinnacle Total Hip Replacement

Introduction The ASR XL (DePuy) total hip replacement (THR) is a notable example of a modern metal-on-metal (MOM) implant design that has demonstrated unacceptable survival rates, leading to its recall by the manufacturer; national joint registries have reported revision rates at 7 years of 40% when paired with the Corail stem [1]. The ASR XL THR has a considerably greater risk of revision than the ASR resurfacing hip, which used the same bearing design. This suggests that material loss at the head-stem junction may be responsible for the greater percentage of THR failures observed in this design. The Pinnacle MOM-THR (DePuy) however used the same Corail stem as the ASR XL THR but demonstrated better clinical results, with revision rates of less than 10% at 7 years [1]. The ASR XL and MOM Pinnacle are two designs that have been widely used in hip replacement surgery. The reasons for the differences in the failure rates of the two designs are not fully understood. Comparing the mechanisms of failure of both hips will help surgeons understand whether patients with MOM Pinnacle hips will experience the same types of problems as with those seen with the ASR XL. The aims of this retrieval study were to investigate the significance of differences between the ASR XL and MOM Pinnacle in relation to: (1) pre-revision whole blood Co/Cr ratios, (2) visual evidence of taper corrosion, (3) volumetric material loss at the bearing surfaces and (4) volumetric material loss at the taper surfaces. Methods This study involved a series of failed MOM hips consisting of the ASR XL (n=30) and Pinnacle (n=30), all that had been used with a Corail stem. The bearing material in each design was cobalt-chromium and the Corail stem is of a cementless titanium 12/14 design. The ASR XL and Pinnacle had a median head diameter of 47mm (39-55) and 36mm (36-40) respectively, and a median time to revision of 38.5 months (12-74) and 55 months (14-86) respectively. Pre-revision whole blood metal ion levels were collected for each Table 1 summarises patient and implant data for the hips in this study. The female taper surfaces of all 60 heads were examined macroscopically and microscopically to assess the severity of corrosion. Each surface was graded with a score of between 1 (no corrosion) and 4 (severe corrosion) using a well-published scoring system, which has been shown to be statistically reliable. A Zeiss Prismo (Carl Zeiss Ltd, Rugby, UK) coordinate measuring machine (CMM) was used to determine the volume of material loss at the cup and head bearing surfaces. Up to 300,000 data points were collected using a 2mm ruby stylus that was translated along 400 polar scan lines on the surface. The raw data was used to map regions of material loss by comparing with the unworn geometry of the bearing. A Talyrond 365 (Hobson, Leicester, UK) roundness measuring machine was used to measure the volumetric material loss at each of the head taper surfaces. Published protocols were used to take a series of 180 vertical traces along the taper surface using a 5μm diamond stylus; worn and unworn regions were mapped and used to calculate material loss. Neither the volumetric measurement data nor corrosion scores were normally distributed. Therefore non-parametric tests were performed to assess the statistical significance of differences between the two designs in relation to the parameters under investigation in this study. Results Both the whole blood Co ion levels and the Co/Cr ratios, Figure 1, of the ASR XL hips were significantly greater than the Pinnacles (p<0.05). There was no significant difference between the whole blood Cr ion levels between the two designs (p=0.0542). 18 of the ASR XL hips presented evidence of edge wearing of the cup, compared with 14 Pinnacle hips; this difference was not significant (p=0.438). The length of the stem trunnion contact engagement length with the taper was approximated as being 10.5mm for both designs. The median time to revision of the ASR XL hips was significantly less than the Pinnacle hips (p<0.01). There was visual evidence of corrosion in 93% (n=28) and 90% (n=27) of head tapers for the ASR XLs and Pinnacles respectively. Moderate to severe corrosion was observed in 67% (n=20) of ASR XLs compared to 60% (n=18) of Pinnacles. There was however no statistically significant difference between the scores of the two groups (p=0.927). Figure 2 presents the distribution of material loss rates for the bearing and taper surfaces of the two designs in this study. The median total bearing surface (combined cup and head) rate of material loss for the ASR XL and Pinnacle hips was 4.45mm3/year (0.32-22.85) and 4.03mm3/year (0.87-62.12) respectively. There was no significant difference between the two groups (p=0.928). The median material loss rate at the taper surfaces of the ASR XL and Pinnacle hips was 0.62mm3/year (0-4.20) and 0.30mm3/year (0-3.12); this difference was not significant (p=0.198). Discussion The work of this study presents comparisons of retrieval findings between the ASR XL and Pinnacle MOM-THRs; these hip designs were two of the most commonly implanted in patients worldwide. The significantly greater whole blood Co/Cr ratios found in the ASR XL group compared to the Pinnacle group are of interest. It is speculated that a Co/Cr ratio of greater than 1 may be an indicator of corrosion of an implant whereby more Cr ions are retained on the surface, whilst comparatively more Co ions are released into the blood. In the current study we found wear rates at the bearing surfaces of both designs to be comparable, suggesting that the significantly greater Co/Cr ratios in the ASR XL hips must be due to greater corrosion at the taper junction than the Pinnacles. Although the ASR XL hips had been implanted for a significantly shorter period of time, our visual assessment of the corrosion of the taper junctions found that corrosion scores were comparable between the two designs; indeed, a marginally greater number of ASR XL tapers had evidence of moderate to severe corrosion. This finding, coupled with the elevated Co/Cr ratios suggests that the ASR XL design is more susceptible to corrosion at the taper junction than the Pinnacle hip. We found that the median rate of material loss at the ASR XL taper was over twice that of the Pinnacle taper. Whilst not statistically significant, this difference may be due to a greater risk of corrosion at this interface in the ASR XL design. The differences in material loss and corrosion that were observed at the taper junctions may be explained by considering the larger head sizes of the ASR XL hips in comparison to the Pinnacles. It has previously been shown that increasing head size is correlated with greater visual evidence of corrosion and that increased frictional torque along the taper junction due a larger head diameter can increase the risk of fretting-corrosion. It is suggested therefore that the combination of the larger head sizes of the ASR XLs coupled with the comparatively short, rough surface of the Corail trunnion results in a cumulative effect leading to greater corrosion at the taper junction. Significance The results of the study suggest that the combination of (1) increased frictional torque in the larger ASR XLs and (2) the rough Corail trunnion surface, results in greater corrosion at the taper junction in comparison to the Pinnacle hips; this helps to explain the higher risk of revision in this hip design

Taper wear contributes only a third of the total volumetric material loss in large head metal on metal hip replacement

Abstract It has been speculated that high wear at the head-stem taper may contribute to the high failure rates reported for stemmed large head metal-on-metal (LH-MOM) hips. In this study of 53 retrieved LH-MOM hip replacements, we sought to determine the relative contributions of the bearing and taper surfaces to the total wear volume. Prior to revision, we recorded the relevant clinical variables, including whole blood cobalt and chromium levels. Volumetric wear of the bearing surfaces was measured using a coordinate measuring machine and of the taper surfaces using a roundness measuring machine. The mean taper wear volume was lower than the combined bearing surface wear volume (p = 0.015). On average the taper contributed 32.9% of the total wear volume, and in only 28% cases was the taper wear volume greater than the bearing surface wear volume. Despite contributing less to the total material loss than the bearing surfaces, the head-stem taper junction remains an important source of implant-derived wear debris. Furthermore, material loss at the taper is likely to involve corrosion and it is possible that the material released may be more biologically active than that from the bearing surface

Effectiveness of manual therapies: the UK evidence report

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The purpose of this report is to provide a succinct but comprehensive summary of the scientific evidence regarding the effectiveness of manual treatment for the management of a variety of musculoskeletal and non-musculoskeletal conditions.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The conclusions are based on the results of systematic reviews of randomized clinical trials (RCTs), widely accepted and primarily UK and United States evidence-based clinical guidelines, plus the results of all RCTs not yet included in the first three categories. The strength/quality of the evidence regarding effectiveness was based on an adapted version of the grading system developed by the US Preventive Services Task Force and a study risk of bias assessment tool for the recent RCTs.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>By September 2009, 26 categories of conditions were located containing RCT evidence for the use of manual therapy: 13 musculoskeletal conditions, four types of chronic headache and nine non-musculoskeletal conditions. We identified 49 recent relevant systematic reviews and 16 evidence-based clinical guidelines plus an additional 46 RCTs not yet included in systematic reviews and guidelines.</p> <p>Additionally, brief references are made to other effective non-pharmacological, non-invasive physical treatments.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Spinal manipulation/mobilization is effective in adults for: acute, subacute, and chronic low back pain; migraine and cervicogenic headache; cervicogenic dizziness; manipulation/mobilization is effective for several extremity joint conditions; and thoracic manipulation/mobilization is effective for acute/subacute neck pain. The evidence is inconclusive for cervical manipulation/mobilization alone for neck pain of any duration, and for manipulation/mobilization for mid back pain, sciatica, tension-type headache, coccydynia, temporomandibular joint disorders, fibromyalgia, premenstrual syndrome, and pneumonia in older adults. Spinal manipulation is not effective for asthma and dysmenorrhea when compared to sham manipulation, or for Stage 1 hypertension when added to an antihypertensive diet. In children, the evidence is inconclusive regarding the effectiveness for otitis media and enuresis, and it is not effective for infantile colic and asthma when compared to sham manipulation.</p> <p>Massage is effective in adults for chronic low back pain and chronic neck pain. The evidence is inconclusive for knee osteoarthritis, fibromyalgia, myofascial pain syndrome, migraine headache, and premenstrual syndrome. In children, the evidence is inconclusive for asthma and infantile colic.</p

Global patient outcomes after elective surgery: prospective cohort study in 27 low-, middle- and high-income countries.

BACKGROUND: As global initiatives increase patient access to surgical treatments, there remains a need to understand the adverse effects of surgery and define appropriate levels of perioperative care. METHODS: We designed a prospective international 7-day cohort study of outcomes following elective adult inpatient surgery in 27 countries. The primary outcome was in-hospital complications. Secondary outcomes were death following a complication (failure to rescue) and death in hospital. Process measures were admission to critical care immediately after surgery or to treat a complication and duration of hospital stay. A single definition of critical care was used for all countries. RESULTS: A total of 474 hospitals in 19 high-, 7 middle- and 1 low-income country were included in the primary analysis. Data included 44 814 patients with a median hospital stay of 4 (range 2-7) days. A total of 7508 patients (16.8%) developed one or more postoperative complication and 207 died (0.5%). The overall mortality among patients who developed complications was 2.8%. Mortality following complications ranged from 2.4% for pulmonary embolism to 43.9% for cardiac arrest. A total of 4360 (9.7%) patients were admitted to a critical care unit as routine immediately after surgery, of whom 2198 (50.4%) developed a complication, with 105 (2.4%) deaths. A total of 1233 patients (16.4%) were admitted to a critical care unit to treat complications, with 119 (9.7%) deaths. Despite lower baseline risk, outcomes were similar in low- and middle-income compared with high-income countries. CONCLUSIONS: Poor patient outcomes are common after inpatient surgery. Global initiatives to increase access to surgical treatments should also address the need for safe perioperative care. STUDY REGISTRATION: ISRCTN5181700

Genetic mechanisms of critical illness in COVID-19.

Host-mediated lung inflammation is present1, and drives mortality2, in the critical illness caused by coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Host genetic variants associated with critical illness may identify mechanistic targets for therapeutic development3. Here we report the results of the GenOMICC (Genetics Of Mortality In Critical Care) genome-wide association study in 2,244 critically ill patients with COVID-19 from 208 UK intensive care units. We have identified and replicated the following new genome-wide significant associations: on chromosome 12q24.13 (rs10735079, P = 1.65 × 10-8) in a gene cluster that encodes antiviral restriction enzyme activators (OAS1, OAS2 and OAS3); on chromosome 19p13.2 (rs74956615, P = 2.3 × 10-8) near the gene that encodes tyrosine kinase 2 (TYK2); on chromosome 19p13.3 (rs2109069, P = 3.98 ×  10-12) within the gene that encodes dipeptidyl peptidase 9 (DPP9); and on chromosome 21q22.1 (rs2236757, P = 4.99 × 10-8) in the interferon receptor gene IFNAR2. We identified potential targets for repurposing of licensed medications: using Mendelian randomization, we found evidence that low expression of IFNAR2, or high expression of TYK2, are associated with life-threatening disease; and transcriptome-wide association in lung tissue revealed that high expression of the monocyte-macrophage chemotactic receptor CCR2 is associated with severe COVID-19. Our results identify robust genetic signals relating to key host antiviral defence mechanisms and mediators of inflammatory organ damage in COVID-19. Both mechanisms may be amenable to targeted treatment with existing drugs. However, large-scale randomized clinical trials will be essential before any change to clinical practice

Whole-genome sequencing reveals host factors underlying critical COVID-19

Critical COVID-19 is caused by immune-mediated inflammatory lung injury. Host genetic variation influences the development of illness requiring critical care1 or hospitalization2–4 after infection with SARS-CoV-2. The GenOMICC (Genetics of Mortality in Critical Care) study enables the comparison of genomes from individuals who are critically ill with those of population controls to find underlying disease mechanisms. Here we use whole-genome sequencing in 7,491 critically ill individuals compared with 48,400 controls to discover and replicate 23 independent variants that significantly predispose to critical COVID-19. We identify 16 new independent associations, including variants within genes that are involved in interferon signalling (IL10RB and PLSCR1), leucocyte differentiation (BCL11A) and blood-type antigen secretor status (FUT2). Using transcriptome-wide association and colocalization to infer the effect of gene expression on disease severity, we find evidence that implicates multiple genes—including reduced expression of a membrane flippase (ATP11A), and increased expression of a mucin (MUC1)—in critical disease. Mendelian randomization provides evidence in support of causal roles for myeloid cell adhesion molecules (SELE, ICAM5 and CD209) and the coagulation factor F8, all of which are potentially druggable targets. Our results are broadly consistent with a multi-component model of COVID-19 pathophysiology, in which at least two distinct mechanisms can predispose to life-threatening disease: failure to control viral replication; or an enhanced tendency towards pulmonary inflammation and intravascular coagulation. We show that comparison between cases of critical illness and population controls is highly efficient for the detection of therapeutically relevant mechanisms of disease