Forecasting financial short time series

We study the application of time series forecasting methods to massive datasets of short financial time series. In our example, the time series arise from analyzing monthly expenses and incomes in personal financial records. Differently from traditional time series forecasting applications, we work with series of very short depth (as short as 24 data points), which prevents fromusing classical exponential smoothing methods. However, this shortcoming is compensated by the the size of our dataset: millions of time series. The latter allows tackling the problem of time series prediction from a pattern recognition perspective. Specifically, we propose a method for short time seriesprediction based on time series clustering and distance-based regression. We experimentally show that this strategy leads to improved accuracy compared to exponential smoothing methods. We additionally describe the underlying big data platform developed to carry out the forecasts in an efficient manner (comparisons to millions of elements in near real-time)

Validation and calibration of models to estimate photosynthetically active radiation considering different time scales and sky conditions

Photosynthetically Active Radiation (PAR) is a fundamental parameter for developing plant productivity models. Nevertheless, instrumentation for measuring PAR and to record it is scarce at conventional meteorological stations. Several procedures have therefore been proposed for PAR estimation. In this work, 21 previously published analytical models that correlate PAR with easily available meteorological parameters are collected. Although longer time scales were considered in the original publications, a minute range was applied in this work to calibrate the PAR models. In total, more than 10 million input records were gathered from the SURFRAD station network from a 10-year long time series with data frequencies recorded every 1 min. The models were calibrated both globally, using data from all stations and locally, with data from each station. After calibration, the models were validated for minute, hourly and daily data, obtaining low fitting errors at the different stations in all cases, both when using the globally calibrated models and with the models calibrated for each location. Although the PAR results in general improved for locally calibrated models, the use of local models is not justified, since the global models presented offered very satisfactory PAR results for the different climatic conditions where the meteorological stations are located. Thus, PAR estimation model should then be selected, solely considering the meteorological variables available at the specific location. When applying the globally calibrated models to input data classified according to sky conditions (from clear to overcast), the PAR models continued to perform satisfactorily, although the error statistics of some models for overcast skies worsened.The authors gratefully acknowledge the financial support provided by the Spanish Ministry of Science & Innovation under the I + D+i state program “Challenges Research Projects” (Ref. RTI2018-098900-B-I00)

La escuela semilla de desarrollo comunitario: mejora de la red educativa. Región de Savanes, Togo. ASF

Se trata de un proyecto de mejora de la red de escuelas rurales en la región de Savanes, a través de la propuesta del diseño de un prototipo de escuela, el cuál pudiese ser experimentado en dos o tres de las poblaciones meta identificadas y sirviese de modelo replicable en futuras actuaciones e incluso proponerse como modelo de escuela nacional. El presente documento se redacta tomando como modelo la última convocatoria de financiación de la AExCID (Agencia Extremeña de Cooperación Internacional al Desarrollo). Aunque se tienen identificadas trece escuelas para dicha convocatoria se pide financiación para la construcción de tres escuelas en tres comunidades rurales de la Prefectura de Tone (Gbatanague, Nampante y Djapernague). La priorización de dichas escuelas se explicará más adelante

Reducción de los tiempos de observación en la evaluación del observación en la evaluación del comportamiento de conejas en producción. Análisis metodológico.

El objetivo de este trabajo fue evaluar diferentes técnicas de muestreo que redujeran el tiempo total de observación necesario para estimar el comportamiento de conejas alojadas en dos tipos de jaulas (convencionales vs. enriquecidas) y en dos estados fisiológicos distintos (gestantes vs. lactantes). Para ello, se compararon grabaciones completas de 24 h (método control de referencia) con estimaciones obtenidas a partir de grabaciones de diferente duración y frecuencia (métodos regular corto y regular largo y métodos irregulares de 6h y de 8h). A partir de los resultados obtenidos se observa que los métodos regulares se ajustaron mejor al método de referencia de 24h que los irregulares. Desde un punto de vista práctico el método regular corto sería el ideal, al reducir considerablemente el número total de horas de observación y análisi

Efecto del tipo de jaula sobre el comportamiento de conejas

El objetivo de este ensayo fue evaluar el efecto del tipo de jaula (convencional vs. enriquecida) y el estado fisiológico de las conejas (gestación vs. lactación) sobre su comportamiento. Se realizaron grabaciones de 12 conejas multíparas durante 24 h en dos momentos distintos. Los comportamientos observados se clasificaron en tres grupos independientes (localización, locomoción y acciones). Se observó una predominancia clara por el uso del reposapatas (principalmente en la fase de lactación), pero este tiempo disminuyó significativamente en jaulas enriquecidas debido al uso de la plataforma (67,1 vs. 48,2%; Pmenor que0,05). Las conejas permanecieron tumbadas y sentadas el 78,4 y 20,7% del día, respectivamente, sin tener efecto ni el tipo de jaula ni el estado fisiológico. Las conejas se ponían de pie únicamente para comer u oler las heces retenidas sobre la plataforma. Las conejas se mostraron más nerviosas en la fase de lactación tratando de huir de los gazapos, siendo esta huida exitosa cuando las conejas tenían la posibilidad de utilizar la plataforma. Las conejas gestantes estuvieron significativamente más tiempo que las lactantes acicalándose, mordiendo barrotes e interaccionando con las vecinas (Pmenor que0,01; 0,05 y 0,05, respectivamente). Las conejas lactantes dedicaron más tiempo a beber (Pmenor que0,05) que las gestantes. De este trabajo se desprende que el aumento del espacio disponible con la colocación de una plataforma elevada podría ser una buena alternativa para la mejora del bienestar de las conejas, sobre todo en la fase final de la lactación, aunque la retención de heces sobre la plataforma y las deyecciones pueden ocasionar problemas de higiene

Involvement of nitric oxide in the mitochondrial action of efavirenz: a differential effect on neurons and glial cells

The anti-human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) drug efavirenz (EFV) alters mitochondrial function in cultured neurons and glial cells. Nitric oxide (NO) is a mediator of mitochondrial dysfunction associated with HIV central nervous system symptoms. We show that EFV promotes inducible nitric oxide synthase (iNOS) expression in cultured glial cells and generated NO undermines their mitochondrial function, as inhibition of NOS partially reverses this effect. EFV inhibits mitochondrial Complex I in both neurons and glia; however, when the latter cells are treated for longer periods, other mitochondrial complexes are also affected in accordance with the increased NO production. These findings shed light on the mechanisms responsible for the frequent EFV-associated neurotoxicity

Ethical considerations in elderly patients with acute coronary syndrome

Acute coronary syndrome (ACS) is one of the main causes of mortality and morbidity in the elderly. The prevalence of ACS increases with age and patients with advanced age have some co-morbidities that require an individualized approach, which includes a comprehensive geriatric assessment. Ageism is a matter of great concern. In this scenario, some ethical conflicts may arise which should be anticipated, considered, and solved. Clinicians will need to prioritize and allocate resources, to avoid futility/proportionality, which is not always easy to assess in these patients. This review aims to summarize the evidence regarding ethical conflicts that may arise in the management of patients with ACS and advanced age. We will discuss how to choose the best option (which frequently is not the only one) with the lowest risk for harm, considering and respecting the patients' decision. The four basic principles of bioethics (beneficence, non-maleficence, autonomy, and justice) are thoroughly reviewed, and discussed, regarding their role in the decision making process

Industrial Low-Clinker Precast Elements Using Recycled Aggregates

ABSTRACT: ncreasing amounts of sustainable concretes are being used as society becomes more aware of the environment. This paper attempts to evaluate the properties of precast concrete elements formed with recycled coarse aggregate and low clinker content cement using recycled additions. To this end, six different mix proportions were characterized: a reference concrete; 2 concretes with 25%wt. and 50%wt. substitution of coarse aggregate made using mixed construction and demolition wastes; and others with recycled cement with low clinker content. The compressive strength, the elastic modulus, and the durability indicator decrease with the proportions of recycled aggregate replacing aggregate, and it is accentuated with the incorporation of recycled cement. However, all the precast elements tested show good performance with slight reduction in the mechanical properties. To confirm the appropriate behaviour of New Jersey precast barriers, a test that simulated the impact of a vehicle was carried out.This research was funded by SODERCAN, S.A. (SODERCAN/FEDER) and BIA2013-48876-C3-2-R awarded by the Ministry of Science and Innovation

Significado de la celularidad peritoneal basal: más allá del diagnóstico de infección peritoneal en diálisis peritoneal

Resume

Engineering biocatalysts for the anaerobic recycling of toxic aromatic hydrocarbons

En: 1st Spanish National Conference on Advances in Materials Recycling and Eco – Energy Madrid, 12-13 November 2009.-- Editors: F. A. López, F. Puertas, F. J. Alguacil and A. Guerrero.-- 3 pages.Azoarcus sp. CIB is a denitrifying betaproteobacterium that uses different aromatic compounds, including toxic hydrocarbons such as toluene and m-xylene, as sole carbon sources, and is susceptible of genetic manipulation. To acquire a global view of all the genetic determinants involved in the anaerobic catabolism of aromatic compounds in strain CIB, and to accelerate and complete our understanding about this anaerobic catabolism, we have performed a genomic survey in the recently sequenced genome of this strain. This information paves the way for a pathway engineering approach within the field of anaerobic degradation of aromatics.Peer reviewe