The fine-structure of volatility feedback I: multi-scale self-reflexivity

We attempt to unveil the fine structure of volatility feedback effects in the context of general quadratic autoregressive (QARCH) models, which assume that today's volatility can be expressed as a general quadratic form of the past daily returns. The standard ARCH or GARCH framework is recovered when the quadratic kernel is diagonal. The calibration of these models on US stock returns reveals several unexpected features. The off-diagonal (non ARCH) coefficients of the quadratic kernel are found to be highly significant both In-Sample and Out-of-Sample, but all these coefficients turn out to be one order of magnitude smaller than the diagonal elements. This confirms that daily returns play a special role in the volatility feedback mechanism, as postulated by ARCH models. The feedback kernel exhibits a surprisingly complex structure, incompatible with models proposed so far in the literature. Its spectral properties suggest the existence of volatility-neutral patterns of past returns. The diagonal part of the quadratic kernel is found to decay as a power-law of the lag, in line with the long-memory of volatility. Finally, QARCH models suggest some violations of Time Reversal Symmetry in financial time series, which are indeed observed empirically, although of much smaller amplitude than predicted. We speculate that a faithful volatility model should include both ARCH feedback effects and a stochastic component

Physical Properties of Emission-Line Galaxies at z ~ 2 from Near-Infrared Spectroscopy with Magellan FIRE

We present results from near-infrared spectroscopy of 26 emission-line galaxies at z ~ 2 obtained with the FIRE spectrometer on the Magellan Baade telescope. The sample was selected from the WISP survey, which uses the near-infrared grism of the Hubble Space Telescope Wide Field Camera 3 to detect emission-line galaxies over 0.3 < z < 2.3. Our FIRE follow-up spectroscopy (R~5000) over 1.0-2.5 micron permits detailed measurements of physical properties of the z~2 emission-line galaxies. Dust-corrected star formation rates for the sample range from ~5-100 M_sun yr-1. We derive a median metallicity for the sample of ~0.45 Z_sun, and the estimated stellar masses range from ~10^8.5 - 10^9.5 M_sun. The average ionization parameters measured for the sample are typically much higher than what is found for local star-forming galaxies. We derive composite spectra from the FIRE sample, from which we infer typical nebular electron densities of ~100-400 cm^-3. Based on the location of the galaxies and composite spectra on BPT diagrams, we do not find evidence for significant AGN activity in the sample. Most of the galaxies as well as the composites are offset in the BPT diagram toward higher [O III]/H-beta at a given [N II]/H-alpha, in agreement with other observations of z > 1 star-forming galaxies, but composite spectra derived from the sample do not show an appreciable offset from the local star-forming sequence on the [O III]/H-beta versus [S II]/H-alpha diagram. We infer a high nitrogen-to-oxygen abundance ratio from the composite spectrum, which may contribute to the offset of the high-redshift galaxies from the local star-forming sequence in the [O III]/H-beta versus [N II]/H-alpha diagram. We speculate that the elevated nitrogen abundance could result from substantial numbers of Wolf-Rayet stars in starbursting galaxies at z~2. (Abridged)Comment: Accepted for publication in Ap

Vers une amélioration de la détection des chaleurs dans les troupeaux bovins grâce à une nouvelle méthode de diagnostic et de conseil (DetŒstrus)

La détection des chaleurs est une étape clé de la mise à la reproduction dans les troupeaux pratiquant l'insémination animale (IA). La qualité de la détection est difficile à évaluer rendant délicat le conseil dans ce domaine. "DetŒstrus" est une nouvelle méthode de diagnostic et de conseil centrée sur la détection des chaleurs et utilisable par les conseillers dans les troupeaux bovins où l'IA est pratiquée. L'objectif de ce document est de présenter cette méthode et sa première évaluation sur le terrain. Cette méthode est innovante dans la mesure où elle permet de distinguer les problèmes liés à la vache (défaut de cyclicité post-partum, de niveau d'expression des chaleurs) de ceux liés aux pratiques de l'éleveur (défaut de sensibilité, de spécificité de la détection), et ainsi de proposer des solutions ciblées et adaptées aux contraintes et objectifs de l'éleveur. La méthode se présente sous la forme d'un document Excel® organisé en fiches qui servent de support lors de l'audit et se décline en deux versions (laitière et allaitante). La version laitière comprend une estimation de la sensibilité et de la spécificité de la détection grâce à des équations de prédiction utilisant des données facilement accessibles en exploitation et prenant en compte le niveau d'expression des chaleurs des vaches. La version allaitante comprend un simulateur permettant d'estimer la reprise de cyclicité post-partum dans le troupeau, et donc de planifier la surveillance des chaleurs pour une utilisation facilitée de l'IA. Un premier test en exploitation de la méthode montre que 89% des conseillers (40/45) et la totalité des éleveurs (24/24) ont jugé l'audit satisfaisant. 91% des éleveurs (21/23) se sentent "mieux armés" sur la détection des chaleurs après l'audit. La durée totale de l'audit (préparation et intervention) a été de 3h ± 1h en troupeaux laitiers et 2h10 ± 42min en troupeaux allaitants. Les retours de l'essai ont permis d'optimiser la méthode prochainement disponible en téléchargement gratuit sur le site de l'Institut de l'Elevage

Biogeography of marine giant viruses reveals their interplay with eukaryotes and ecological functions

海洋巨大ウイルスの地理的分布を全球規模で解明 --海域による特異性が明らかに--. 京都大学プレスリリース. 2020-09-08.Nucleocytoplasmic large DNA viruses (NCLDVs) are ubiquitous in marine environments and infect diverse eukaryotes. However, little is known about their biogeography and ecology in the ocean. By leveraging the Tara Oceans pole-to-pole metagenomic data set, we investigated the distribution of NCLDVs across size fractions, depths and biomes, as well as their associations with eukaryotic communities. Our analyses reveal a heterogeneous distribution of NCLDVs across oceans, and a higher proportion of unique NCLDVs in the polar biomes. The community structures of NCLDV families correlate with specific eukaryotic lineages, including many photosynthetic groups. NCLDV communities are generally distinct between surface and mesopelagic zones, but at some locations they exhibit a high similarity between the two depths. This vertical similarity correlates to surface phytoplankton biomass but not to physical mixing processes, which suggests a potential role of vertical transport in structuring mesopelagic NCLDV communities. These results underscore the importance of the interactions between NCLDVs and eukaryotes in biogeochemical processes in the ocean

The Future of Global Water Stress: An Integrated Assessment

We assess the ability of global water systems, resolved at 282 large river basins or Assessment Sub Regions (ASRs), to the meet water requirements over the coming decades under integrated projections of socioeconomic growth and climate change. We employ a Water Resource System (WRS) component embedded within the MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) framework in a suite of simulations that consider a range of climate policies and regional hydroclimatic changes through the middle of this century. We find that for many developing nations water-demand increases due to population growth and economic activity have a much stronger effect on water stress than climate change. By 2050, economic growth and population change alone can lead to an additional 1.8 billion people living in regions with at least moderate water stress. Of this additional 1.8 billion people, 80% are found in developing countries. Uncertain regional climate change can play a secondary role to either exacerbate or dampen the increase in water stress due to socioeconomic growth. The strongest climate impacts on relative changes in water stress are seen over many areas in Africa, but strong impacts also occur over Europe, Southeast Asia and North America. The combined effects of socioeconomic growth and uncertain climate change lead to a 1.0 to 1.3 billion increase of the world's 2050 projected population living in regions with overly exploited water conditions— where total potential water requirements will consistently exceed surface-water supply. Under the context of the WRS model framework, this would imply that adaptive measures would be taken to meet these surface-water shortfalls and would include: water-use efficiency, reduced and/or redirected consumption, recurrent periods of water emergencies or curtailments, groundwater depletion, additional inter-basin transfers, and overdraw from flow intended to maintain environmental requirements.We assess the ability of global water systems, resolved at 282 large river basins or Assessment Sub Regions (ASRs), to the meet water requirements over the coming decades under integrated projections of socioeconomic growth and climate change. We employ a Water Resource System (WRS) component embedded within the MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) framework in a suite of simulations that consider a range of climate policies and regional hydroclimatic changes through the middle of this century. We find that for many developing nations water-demand increases due to population growth and economic activity have a much stronger effect on water stress than climate change. By 2050, economic growth and population change alone can lead to an additional 1.8 billion people living in regions with at least moderate water stress. Of this additional 1.8 billion people, 80% are found in developing countries. Uncertain regional climate change can play a secondary role to either exacerbate or dampen the increase in water stress due to socioeconomic growth. The strongest climate impacts on relative changes in water stress are seen over many areas in Africa, but strong impacts also occur over Europe, Southeast Asia and North America. The combined effects of socioeconomic growth and uncertain climate change lead to a 1.0 to 1.3 billion increase of the world's 2050 projected population living in regions with overly exploited water conditions— where total potential water requirements will consistently exceed surface-water supply. Under the context of the WRS model framework, this would imply that adaptive measures would be taken to meet these surface-water shortfalls and would include: water-use efficiency, reduced and/or redirected consumption, recurrent periods of water emergencies or curtailments, groundwater depletion, additional inter-basin transfers, and overdraw from flow intended to maintain environmental requirements

Spectral Energy Distribution Fitting of Hetdex Pilot Survey Ly-alpha Emitters in Cosmos and Goods-N

We use broadband photometry extending from the rest-frame UV to the near-IR to fit the individual spectral energy distributions of 63 bright (L(Ly-alpha) greater than 10(exp 43) erg s(exp 1) Ly-alpha emitting galaxies (LAEs) in the redshift range 1.9 less than z less than 3.6. We find that these LAEs are quite heterogeneous, with stellar masses that span over three orders of magnitude, from 7.5 greater than logM/solar mass less than 10.5. Moreover, although most LAEs have small amounts of extinction, some high-mass objects have stellar reddenings as large as E(B V ) is approximately 0.4. Interestingly, in dusty objects the optical depths for Ly-alpha and the UV continuum are always similar, indicating that Ly photons are not undergoing many scatters before escaping their galaxy. In contrast, the ratio of optical depths in low-reddening systems can vary widely, illustrating the diverse nature of the systems. Finally, we show that in the star-formation-rate-log-mass diagram, our LAEs fall above the "main-sequence" defined by z is approximately 3 continuum selected star-forming galaxies. In this respect, they are similar to submillimeter-selected galaxies, although most LAEs have much lower mass

Eukaryotic virus composition can predict the efficiency of carbon export in the global ocean

海洋ウイルスの種組成と炭素の鉛直輸送の相関を確認 --ウイルスによる地球環境の制御を示唆. 京都大学プレスリリース. 2021-01-15.The biological carbon pump, in which carbon fixed by photosynthesis is exported to the deep ocean through sinking, is a major process in Earth's carbon cycle. The proportion of primary production that is exported is termed the carbon export efficiency (CEE). Based on in-lab or regional scale observations, viruses were previously suggested to affect the CEE (i.e., viral “shunt” and “shuttle”). In this study, we tested associations between viral community composition and CEE measured at a global scale. A regression model based on relative abundance of viral marker genes explained 67% of the variation in CEE. Viruses with high importance in the model were predicted to infect ecologically important hosts. These results are consistent with the view that the viral shunt and shuttle functions at a large scale and further imply that viruses likely act in this process in a way dependent on their hosts and ecosystem dynamics

The Chemical Evolution Carousel of Spiral Galaxies : Azimuthal Variations of Oxygen Abundance in NGC1365

19 pages, 13 figures. Accepted to ApJThe spatial distribution of oxygen in the interstellar medium of galaxies is the key to understanding how efficiently metals that are synthesized in massive stars can be redistributed across a galaxy. We present here a case study in the nearby spiral galaxy NGC1365 using 3D optical data obtained in the TYPHOON Program. We find systematic azimuthal variations of the HII region oxygen abundance imprinted on a negative radial gradient. The 0.2 dex azimuthal variations occur over a wide radial range of 0.3 to 0.7 R25 and peak at the two spiral arms in NGC1365. We show that the azimuthal variations can be explained by two physical processes: gas undergoes localized, sub-kpc scale self-enrichment when orbiting in the inter-arm region, and experiences efficient, kpc scale mixing-induced dilution when spiral density waves pass through. We construct a simple chemical evolution model to quantitatively test this picture and find that our toy model can reproduce the observations. This result suggests that the observed abundance variations in NGC1365 are a snapshot of the dynamical local enrichment of oxygen modulated by spiral-driven, periodic mixing and dilution.Peer reviewedFinal Published versio