Blue Nile Runoff Sensitivity to Climate Change

This study describes implementation of hydrological climate change impact assessment tool utilising a combination of statistical spatiotemporal downscaling and an operational hydrological model known as the Nile Forecasting System. A spatial rainfall generator was used to produce high-resolution (daily, 20km) gridded rainfall data required by the distributed hydrological model from monthly GCM outputs. The combined system was used to assess the sensitivity of upper Blue Nile flows at Diem flow gauging station to changes in future rainfall during the June-September rainy season based on output from three GCMs. The assessment also incorporated future evapotranspiration changes over the basin. The climate change scenarios derived in this study were broadly in line with other studies, with the majority of scenarios indicating wetter conditions in the future. Translating the impacts into runoff in the basin showed increased future mean flows, although these would be offset to some degree by rising evapotranspiration. Impacts on extreme runoff indicated the possibility of more severe floods in future. These are likely to be exacerbated by land-use changes including overgrazing, deforestation, and improper farming practices. Blue Nile basin flood managers therefore need to continue to prepare for the possibility of more frequent floods by adopting a range of measures to minimise loss of life and guard against other flood damage

Quantitative Precipitation Nowcasting: A Lagrangian Pixel-Based Approach

Short-term high-resolution precipitation forecasting has important implications for navigation, flood forecasting, and other hydrological and meteorological concerns. This article introduces a pixel-based algorithm for Short-term Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting (SQPF) using radar-based rainfall data. The proposed algorithm called Pixel- Based Nowcasting (PBN) tracks severe storms with a hierarchical mesh-tracking algorithm to capture storm advection in space and time at high resolution from radar imagers. The extracted advection field is then extended to nowcast the rainfall field in the next 3. hr based on a pixel-based Lagrangian dynamic model. The proposed algorithm is compared with two other nowcasting algorithms (WCN: Watershed-Clustering Nowcasting and PER: PERsistency) for ten thunderstorm events over the conterminous United States. Object-based verification metric and traditional statistics have been used to evaluate the performance of the proposed algorithm. It is shown that the proposed algorithm is superior over comparison algorithms and is effective in tracking and predicting severe storm events for the next few hours. © 2012 Elsevier B.V

Consistency of cruise data of the CARINA database in the Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean

Initially a North Atlantic project, the CARINA carbon synthesis was extended to include the Southern Ocean. Carbon and relevant hydrographic and geochemical ancillary data from cruises all across the Arctic Mediterranean Seas, Atlantic and Southern Ocean were released to the public and merged into a new database as part of the CARINA synthesis effort. Of a total of 188 cruises, 37 cruises are part of the Southern Ocean, including 11 from the Atlantic sector. The variables from all Southern Ocean cruises, including dissolved inorganic carbon (TCO2), total alkalinity, oxygen, nitrate, phosphate and silicate, were examined for cruise-to-cruise consistency in one collective effort. Seawater pH and chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) are also part of the database, but the pH quality control (QC) is described in another Earth System Science Data publication, while the complexity of the Southern Ocean physics and biogeochemistry prevented a proper QC analysis of the CFCs. The area-specific procedures of quality control, including crossover analysis between stations and inversion analysis of all crossover data (i.e. secondary QC), are briefly described here for the Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean. Data from an existing, quality controlled database (GLODAP) were used as a reference for our computations – however, the reference data were included into the analysis without applying the recommended GLODAP adjustments so the corrections could be independently verified. The outcome of this effort is an internally consistent, high-quality carbon data set for all cruises, including the reference cruises. The suggested corrections by the inversion analysis were allowed to vary within a fixed envelope, thus accounting for natural variability. The percentage of cruises adjusted ranged from 31% (for nitrate) to 54% (for phosphate) depending on the variable

Pelagic community production and carbon-nutrient stoichiometry under variable ocean acidification in an Arctic fjord

Net community production (NCP) and carbon to nutrient uptake ratios were studied during a large-scale mesocosm experiment on ocean acidification in Kongsfjorden, western Svalbard, during June–July 2010. Nutrient depleted fjord water with natural plankton assemblages, enclosed in nine mesocosms of ~ 50 m3 in volume, was exposed to pCO2 levels ranging initially from 185 to 1420 μatm. NCP estimations are the cumulative change in dissolved inorganic carbon concentrations after accounting for gas exchange and total alkalinity variations. Stoichiometric coupling between inorganic carbon and nutrient net uptake is shown as a ratio of NCP to a cumulative change in inorganic nutrients. Phytoplankton growth was stimulated by nutrient addition half way through the experiment and three distinct peaks in chlorophyll a concentration were observed during the experiment. Accordingly, the experiment was divided in three phases. Cumulative NCP was similar in all mesocosms over the duration of the experiment. However, in phases I and II, NCP was higher and in phase III lower at elevated pCO2. Due to relatively low inorganic nutrient concentration in phase I, C : N and C : P uptake ratios were calculated only for the period after nutrient addition (phase II and phase III). For the total post-nutrient period (phase II + phase III) ratios were close to Redfield, however they were lower in phase II and higher in phase III. Variability of NCP, C : N and C : P uptake ratios in different phases reflects the effect of increasing CO2 on phytoplankton community composition and succession. The phytoplankton community was composed predominantly of haptophytes in phase I, prasinophytes, dinoflagellates, and cryptophytes in phase II, and haptophytes, prasinophytes, dinoflagellates and chlorophytes in phase III (Schulz et al., 2013). Increasing ambient inorganic carbon concentrations have also been shown to promote primary production and carbon assimilation. For this study, it is clear that the pelagic ecosystem response to increasing CO2 is more complex than that represented in previous work, e.g. Bellerby et al. (2008). Carbon and nutrient uptake representation in models should, where possible, be more focused on individual plankton functional types as applying a single stoichiometry to a biogeochemical model with regard to the effect of increasing pCO2 may not always be optimal. The phase variability in NCP and stoichiometry may be better understood if CO2 sensitivities of the plankton's functional type biogeochemical uptake kinetics and trophic interactions are better constrained

Effect of increased pCO2 on the planktonic metabolic balance during a mesocosm experiment in an Arctic fjord

The effect of ocean acidification on the balance between gross community production (GCP) and community respiration (CR) (i.e., net community production, NCP) of plankton communities was investigated in summer 2010 in Kongsfjorden, west of Svalbard. Surface water, which was characterized by low concentrations of dissolved inorganic nutrients and chlorophyll a (a proxy of phytoplankton biomass), was enclosed in nine mesocosms and subjected to eight pCO2 levels (two replicated controls and seven enhanced pCO2 treatments) for one month. Nutrients were added to all mesocosms on day 13 of the experiment, and thereafter increase of chlorophyll a was provoked in all mesocosms. No clear trend in response to increasing pCO2 was found in the daily values of NCP, CR, and GCP. For further analysis, these parameters were cumulated for the following three periods: phase 1 – end of CO2 manipulation until nutrient addition (t4 to t13); phase 2 – nutrient addition until the second chlorophyll a minimum (t14 to t21); phase 3 – the second chlorophyll a minimum until the end of this study (t22 to t28). A significant response was detected as a decrease of NCP with increasing pCO2 during phase 3. CR was relatively stable throughout the experiment in all mesocosms. As a result, the cumulative GCP significantly decreased with increasing pCO2 during phase 3. After the nutrient addition, the ratios of cumulative NCP to cumulative consumption of NO3 and PO4 showed a significant decrease during phase 3 with increasing pCO2. The results suggest that elevated pCO2 influenced cumulative NCP and stoichiometric C and nutrient coupling of the plankton community in a high-latitude fjord only for a limited period. However provided that there were some differences or weak correlations between NCP data based on different methods in the same experiment, this conclusion should be taken with caution

Overview of the Nordic Seas CARINA data and salinity measurements

Water column data of carbon and carbon relevant hydrographic and hydrochemical parameters from 188 previously non-publicly available cruises in the Arctic, Atlantic, and Southern Ocean have been retrieved and merged into a new database: CARINA (CARbon IN the Atlantic). The data have been subject to rigorous quality control (QC) in order to ensure highest possible quality and consistency. The data for most of the parameters included were examined in order to quantify systematic biases in the reported values, i.e. secondary quality control. Significant biases have been corrected for in the data products, i.e. the three merged files with measured, calculated and interpolated values for each of the three CARINA regions; the Arctic Mediterranean Seas (AMS), the Atlantic (ATL) and the Southern Ocean (SO). With the adjustments the CARINA database is consistent both internally as well as with GLODAP (Key et al., 2004) and is suitable for accurate assessments of, for example, oceanic carbon inventories and uptake rates and for model validation. The Arctic Mediterranean Seas include the Arctic Ocean and the Nordic Seas, and the quality control was carried out separately in these two areas. This contribution provides an overview of the CARINA data from the Nordic Seas and summarises the findings of the QC of the salinity data. One cruise had salinity data that were of questionable quality, and these have been removed from the data product. An evaluation of the consistency of the quality controlled salinity data suggests that they are consistent to at least ±0.005

Spectrophotometric Calibration of pH Electrodes in Seawater Using Purified m-Cresol Purple

This work examines the use of purified meta-cresol purple (mCP) for direct spectrophotometric calibration of glass pH electrodes in seawater. The procedures used in this investigation allow for simple, inexpensive electrode calibrations over salinities of 20–40 and temperatures of 278.15–308.15 K without preparation of synthetic Tris seawater buffers. The optimal pH range is ∼7.0–8.1. Spectrophotometric calibrations enable straightforward, quantitative distinctions between Nernstian and non-Nernstian electrode behavior. For the electrodes examined in this study, both types of behavior were observed. Furthermore, calibrations performed in natural seawater allow direct determination of the influence of salinity on electrode performance. The procedures developed in this study account for salinity-induced variations in liquid junction potentials that, if not taken into account, would create pH inconsistencies of 0.028 over a 10-unit change in salinity. Spectrophotometric calibration can also be used to expeditiously determine the intercept potential (i.e., the potential corresponding to pH 0) of an electrode that has reliably demonstrated Nernstian behavior. Titrations to ascertain Nernstian behavior and salinity effects can be undertaken relatively infrequently (∼weekly to monthly). One-point determinations of intercept potential should be undertaken frequently (∼daily) to monitor for stable electrode behavior and ensure accurate potentiometric pH determinations

Ocean Acidification-Induced Food Quality Deterioration Constrains Trophic Transfer

Our present understanding of ocean acidification (OA) impacts on marine organisms caused by rapidly rising atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration is almost entirely limited to single species responses. OA consequences for food web interactions are, however, still unknown. Indirect OA effects can be expected for consumers by changing the nutritional quality of their prey. We used a laboratory experiment to test potential OA effects on algal fatty acid (FA) composition and resulting copepod growth. We show that elevated CO2 significantly changed the FA concentration and composition of the diatom Thalassiosira pseudonana, which constrained growth and reproduction of the copepod Acartia tonsa. A significant decline in both total FAs (28.1 to 17.4 fg cell−1) and the ratio of long-chain polyunsaturated to saturated fatty acids (PUFA:SFA) of food algae cultured under elevated (750 µatm) compared to present day (380 µatm) pCO2 was directly translated to copepods. The proportion of total essential FAs declined almost tenfold in copepods and the contribution of saturated fatty acids (SFAs) tripled at high CO2. This rapid and reversible CO2-dependent shift in FA concentration and composition caused a decrease in both copepod somatic growth and egg production from 34 to 5 eggs female−1 day−1. Because the diatom-copepod link supports some of the most productive ecosystems in the world, our study demonstrates that OA can have far-reaching consequences for ocean food webs by changing the nutritional quality of essential macromolecules in primary producers that cascade up the food web

Enhanced biological carbon consumption in a high CO2 ocean

The oceans have absorbed nearly half of the fossil-fuel carbon dioxide (CO2) emitted into the atmosphere since pre-industrial times1, causing a measurable reduction in seawater pH and carbonate saturation2. If CO2 emissions continue to rise at current rates, upper-ocean pH will decrease to levels lower than have existed for tens of millions of years and, critically, at a rate of change 100 times greater than at any time over this period3. Recent studies have shown effects of ocean acidification on a variety of marine life forms, in particular calcifying organisms4, 5, 6. Consequences at the community to ecosystem level, in contrast, are largely unknown. Here we show that dissolved inorganic carbon consumption of a natural plankton community maintained in mesocosm enclosures at initial CO2 partial pressures of 350, 700 and 1,050 μatm increases with rising CO2. The community consumed up to 39% more dissolved inorganic carbon at increased CO2 partial pressures compared to present levels, whereas nutrient uptake remained the same. The stoichiometry of carbon to nitrogen drawdown increased from 6.0 at low CO2 to 8.0 at high CO2, thus exceeding the Redfield carbon:nitrogen ratio of 6.6 in today’s ocean7. This excess carbon consumption was associated with higher loss of organic carbon from the upper layer of the stratified mesocosms. If applicable to the natural environment, the observed responses have implications for a variety of marine biological and biogeochemical processes, and underscore the importance of biologically driven feedbacks in the ocean to global change