Fitting Age-Period-Cohort Models Using the Intrinsic Estimator: Assumptions and Misapplications

We thank Demography’s editorial office for the opportunity to respond to te Grotenhuis et al.’s commentary regarding the methods used and the results presented in our earlier paper (Masters et al. 2014). In this response, we briefly reply to three general themes raised in the commentary: (1) the presentation and discussion of APC results, (2) the fitting of full APC models to data for which a simpler model holds, and (3) the variation in the estimated age, period, and cohort coefficients produced by the intrinsic estimator (IE) (i.e., the “non-uniqueness property” of the IE, as referred to by Pelzer et al. (2015))

'An Apotheosis of Well-Being': Durkheim on austerity and double-dip recessions

This article is an attempt to contribute a view on the economic crisis from classical sociology, a voice often missing from the sociological response to the crisis. The work of Émile Durkheim provides a unique perspective here centred on morality and inequality produced in a historical context akin to our neoliberal times. It is argued there are four key points to take from Durkheim’s work. Firstly, that the initial credit crunch can be more fully understood with reference to the economic anomie which Durkheim sees as ‘chronic’ in a time of marketization. Secondly, that this creates an antagonistic relationship between a supposedly self-dependent rich and lazy poor. Thirdly, this conception of self-dependency and individual initiative makes any attempt to regulate the economy akin to sacrilege. Finally, the state is unwilling to intervene due to the emergence of ‘pseudo-democracies’. Therefore, Durkheim’s theory accounts for the initial crisis, austerity and double-dip recessions in a sociological framework. The article concludes by returning to the centrality of morality to the crisis for Durkheim and highlighting the omission of this in contemporary debates

SLS Trade Study 0058: Day of Launch (DOL) Wind Biasing

SLS heritage hardware and legacy designs have shown load exceedances at several locations during Design Analysis Cycles (DAC): MPCV Z bending moments; ICPS Electro-Mechanical Actuator (EMA) loads; Core Stage loads just downstream of Booster forward interface. SLS Buffet Loads Mitigation Task Team (BLMTT) tasked to study issue. Identified low frequency buffet load responses are a function of the vehicle's total angle of attack (AlphaTotal). SLS DOL Wind Biasing Trade team to analyze DOL wind biasing methods to limit maximum AlphaTotal in the M0.8 - 2.0 altitude region for EM-1 and EM-2 missions through investigating: Trajectory design process; Wind wavelength filtering options; Launch availability; DOL process to achieve shorter processing/uplink timeline. Trade Team consisted of personnel supporting SLS, MPCV, GSDO programs

V1647 Orionis: Reinvigorated Accretion and the Re-Appearance of McNeil's Nebula

In late 2003, the young eruptive variable star V1647 Orionis optically brightened by over 5 magnitudes, stayed bright for around 26 months, and then decline to its pre-outburst level. In August 2008 the star was reported to have unexpectedly brightened yet again and we herein present the first detailed observations of this new outburst. Photometrically, the star is now as bright as it ever was following the 2003 eruption. Spectroscopically, a pronounced P Cygni profile is again seen in Halpha with an absorption trough extending to -700 km/s. In the near-infrared, the spectrum now possesses very weak CO overtone bandhead absorption in contrast to the strong bandhead emission seen soon after the 2003 event. Water vapor absorption is also much stronger than previously seen. We discuss the current outburst below and relate it to the earlier event.Comment: 6 pages, 3 figure

Epidemic space

The aim of this article is to highlight the importance of 'spatiality' in understanding the materialization of risk society and cultivation of risk sensibilities. More specifically it provides a cultural analysis of pathogen virulence (as a social phenomenon) by means of tracing and mapping the spatial flows that operate in the uncharted zones between the microphysics of infection and the macrophysics of epidemics. It will be argued that epidemic space consists of three types of forces: the vector, the index and the vortex. It will draw on Latour's Actor Network Theory to argue that epidemic space is geared towards instability when the vortex (of expanding associations and concerns) displaces the index (of finding a single cause)

Adapting Low-Cost Drone Technology to CubeSats for Environmental Monitoring and Management: Harmful Algal Bloom Satellite-1 (HABsat-1)

HABsat-1 is designed to improve our understanding of algal bloom dynamics and their causes on land by addressing several current limiting factors for this application using existing satellites. For example, there is suboptimal imager design for water, insufficient spatial resolution for precise co-registration of surface observations, and too few satellites with such capabilities to defeat cloud cover in maritime, tropical and temperate climates. We will overcome these problems by merging a new low-cost multispectral imaging technology with a low-cost CubeSat bus. CubeSats cost roughly 1/100th to 1/1000th of most current long-life imaging satellites. Such cost decreases are necessary to improve upon the temporal coverage (number of appropriate satellites) and spatial resolution of current imaging satellites, such as Landsat-8, Sentinel-2 and Sentinel-3 (MERIS/OLCI). Numerous low-cost satellites reduce both overall mission cost and individual launch risks associated with large production satellites, such as Landsat, while providing the temporal and spatial resolution necessary for the study of highly dynamic and spatially variable algal blooms. A team of undergraduate aerospace engineers (the UC CubeCats), computer scientists and aerospace and geographic information science faculty have been funded by the Ohio Department of Higher Education and NOAA to adapt low-cost multispectral imagers designed for use on small drones to 3U CubeSats to further reduce the cost of environmental monitoring. This team will create a working on-orbit prototype for a constellation of CubeSat’s for routine drinking water monitoring known as Harmful Algal Bloom Satellite 1 (HABsat-1)

Daily Preventive Zinc Supplementation Decreases Lymphocyte and Eosinophil Concentrations in Rural Laotian Children from Communities with a High Prevalence of Zinc Deficiency: Results of a Randomized Controlled Trial.

BACKGROUND:Zinc deficiency impairs immune function and is common among children in South-East Asia. OBJECTIVES:The effect of zinc supplementation on immune function in young Laotian children was investigated. METHODS:Children (n = 512) aged 6-23 mo received daily preventive zinc tablets (PZ; 7 mg Zn/d), daily multiple micronutrient powder (MNP; 10 mg Zn/d, 6 mg Fe/d, plus 13 other micronutrients), therapeutic dispersible zinc tablets only in association with diarrhea episodes (TZ; 20 mg Zn/d for 10 d after an episode), or daily placebo powder (control). These interventions continued for 9 mo. Cytokine production from whole blood cultures, the concentrations of T-cell populations, and a complete blood count with differential leukocyte count were measured at baseline and endline. Endline means were compared via ANCOVA, controlling for the baseline value of the outcome, child age and sex, district, month of enrollment, and baseline zinc status (below, or above or equal to, the median plasma zinc concentration). RESULTS:T-cell cytokines (IL-2, IFN-γ, IL-13, IL-17), LPS-stimulated cytokines (IL-1β, IL-6, TNF-α, and IL-10), and T-cell concentrations at endline did not differ between intervention groups, nor was there an interaction with baseline zinc status. However, mean ± SE endline lymphocyte concentrations were significantly lower in the PZ than in the control group (5018 ± 158 compared with 5640 ± 160 cells/μL, P = 0.032). Interactions with baseline zinc status were seen for eosinophils (Pixn = 0.0036), basophils (Pixn = 0.023), and monocytes (P = 0.086) but a significant subgroup difference was seen only for eosinophils, where concentrations were significantly lower in the PZ than in the control group among children with baseline plasma zinc concentrations below the overall median (524 ± 44 compared with 600 ± 41 cells/μL, P = 0.012). CONCLUSIONS:Zinc supplementation of rural Laotian children had no effect on cytokines or T-cell concentrations, although zinc supplementation affected lymphocyte and eosinophil concentrations. These cell subsets may be useful as indicators of response to zinc supplementation.This trial was registered at clinicaltrials.gov as NCT02428647

A tale of two societies : The doing of qualitative comparative research in Hong Kong and Britain

This article explores the challenges and opportunities for methodological innovation arising from an exploratory, cross-national, qualitative study of women’s lives in Hong Kong and Britain. We begin by briefly outlining the aims of our study and its original research design, based on life history interviews with young adult women and their mothers in each location.We then turn to a discussion of how this was modified as we recruited participants and conducted the interviews, including the use of vignettes. We aim to be transparent about some of the problems of implementing a symmetrical approach to generating qualitative data in very different socio-cultural settings compounded by the practical difficulties of geographical distance between team members. We argue for a flexible approach that takes account of local cultural sensibilities rather than trying to follow rigidly identical procedures, recognising also that, in any qualitative research team, there will be differences in approach that affect the data produced. We highlight some of the insights yielded by the problems we encountered and, in particular, an accidental innovation that occurred through an ad hoc decision to conduct focus groups with the young women, which we call ‘cross-cultural data feedback’. This innovation involved our participants in contributing to cross cultural comparison and also brought taken-for-granted assumptions in each setting into sharp relief, as well as sensitising us to issues that proved important in analysing our data. This leads us to raise issues of interpreting and analysing data from differing socio-cultural locations and translating between cultures. We conclude with some recommendations including the potential for the future development of our method of cross-cultural data feedback

Patterns of wood carbon dioxide efflux across a 2,000-m elevation transect in an Andean moist forest

During a 1-year measurement period, we recorded the CO2 efflux from stems (RS) and coarse woody roots (RR) of 13–20 common tree species at three study sites at 1,050, 1,890 and 3,050 m a.s.l. in an Andean moist forest. The objective of this work was to study elevation changes of woody tissue CO2 efflux and the relationship to climate variation, site characteristics and growth. Furthermore, we aim to provide insights into important respiration–productivity relationships of a little studied tropical vegetation type. We expected RS and RR to vary with dry and humid season conditions. We further expected RS to vary more than RR due to a more stable soil than air temperature regime. Seasonal variation in woody tissue CO2 efflux was indeed mainly attributable to stems. At the same time, temperature played only a small role in triggering variations in RS. At stand level, the ratio of C release (g C m−2 ground area year−1) between stems and roots varied from 4:1 at 1,050 m to 1:1 at 3,050 m, indicating the increasing prevalence of root activity at high elevations. The fraction of growth respiration from total respiration varied between 10 (3,050 m) and 14% (1,050 m) for stems and between 5 (1,050 m) and 30% (3,050 m) for roots. Our results show that respiratory activity and hence productivity is not driven by low temperatures towards higher elevations in this tropical montane forest. We suggest that future studies should examine the limitation of carbohydrate supply from leaves as a driver for the changes in respiratory activity with elevation

Erasmus Language students in a British University – a case study

Students’ assessment of their academic experience is actively sought by Higher Education institutions, as evidenced in the National Student Survey introduced in 2005. Erasmus students, despite their growing numbers, tend to be excluded from these satisfaction surveys, even though they, too, are primary customers of a University. This study aims to present results from bespoke questionnaires and semi-structured interviews with a sample of Erasmus students studying languages in a British University. These methods allow us insight into the experience of these students and their assessment as a primary customer, with a focus on language learning and teaching, university facilities and student support. It investigates to what extent these factors influence their levels of satisfaction and what costs of adaptation if any, they encounter. Although excellent levels of satisfaction were found, some costs affect their experience. They relate to difficulties in adapting to a learning methodology based on a low number of hours and independent learning and to a guidance and support system seen as too stifling. The results portray this cohort’s British University as a well-equipped and well-meaning but ultimately overbearing institution, which may indicate that minimising costs can eliminate some sources of dissatisfaction