Using the past to constrain the future: how the palaeorecord can improve estimates of global warming

Climate sensitivity is defined as the change in global mean equilibrium temperature after a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration and provides a simple measure of global warming. An early estimate of climate sensitivity, 1.5-4.5{\deg}C, has changed little subsequently, including the latest assessment by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The persistence of such large uncertainties in this simple measure casts doubt on our understanding of the mechanisms of climate change and our ability to predict the response of the climate system to future perturbations. This has motivated continued attempts to constrain the range with climate data, alone or in conjunction with models. The majority of studies use data from the instrumental period (post-1850) but recent work has made use of information about the large climate changes experienced in the geological past. In this review, we first outline approaches that estimate climate sensitivity using instrumental climate observations and then summarise attempts to use the record of climate change on geological timescales. We examine the limitations of these studies and suggest ways in which the power of the palaeoclimate record could be better used to reduce uncertainties in our predictions of climate sensitivity.Comment: The final, definitive version of this paper has been published in Progress in Physical Geography, 31(5), 2007 by SAGE Publications Ltd, All rights reserved. \c{opyright} 2007 Edwards, Crucifix and Harriso

The provenance of Borneo's enigmatic alluvial diamonds:A case study from Cempaka, SE Kalimantan

Gem-quality diamonds have been found in several alluvial deposits across central and southern Borneo. Borneo has been a known source of diamonds for centuries, but the location of their primary igneous source remains enigmatic. Many geological models have been proposed to explain their distribution, including: the diamonds were derived from a local diatreme; they were brought to the surface through ophiolite obduction or exhumation of UHP metamorphic rocks; they were transported long distances southward via major Asian river systems; or, they were transported from the Australian continent before Borneo was rifted from its northwestern margin in the Late Jurassic. To assess these models, we conducted a study of the provenance of heavy minerals from Kalimantan's Cempaka alluvial diamond deposit. This involved collecting U–Pb isotopic data, fission track and trace element geochemistry of zircon as well as major element geochemical data of spinels and morphological descriptions of zircon and diamond. The results indicate that the Cempaka diamonds were likely derived from at least two sources, one which was relatively local and/or involved little reworking, and the other more distal which records several periods of reworking. The distal diamond source is interpreted to be diamond-bearing pipes that intruded the basement of a block that: (1) rifted from northwest Australia (East Java or SW Borneo) and the diamonds were recycled into its sedimentary cover, or: (2) were emplaced elsewhere (e.g. NW Australia) and transported to a block (e.g. East Java or SW Borneo). Both of these scenarios require the diamonds to be transported with the block when it rifted from NW Australia in the Late Jurassic. The local source could be diamondiferous diatremes associated with eroded Miocene high-K alkaline intrusions north of the Barito Basin, which would indicate that the lithosphere beneath SW Borneo is thick (~ 150 km or greater). The ‘local’ diamonds could also be associated with ophiolitic rocks that are exposed in the nearby Meratus Mountains

They are young, and they are many: dating freshwater lineages in unicellular dinophytes

Dinophytes are one of few protist groups that have an extensive fossil record and are therefore appropriate for time estimations. However, insufficient sequence data and strong rate heterogeneity have been hindering to put dinophyte evolution into a time frame until now. Marine‐to‐freshwater transitions within this group are considered geologically old and evolutionarily exceptional due to strong physiological constraints that prevent such processes. Phylogenies based on concatenated rRNA sequences (including 19 new GenBank entries) of two major dinophyte lineages, Gymnodiniaceae and Peridiniales, were carried out using an uncorrelated molecular clock and five calibration points based on fossils. Contrarily to previous assumptions, marine‐to‐freshwater transitions are more frequent in dinophytes (i.e. five marine‐freshwater transitions in Gymnodiniaceae, up to ten but seven strongly supported transitions in Peridiniales), and none of them occurred as early as 140 MYA. Furthermore, most marine‐to‐freshwater transitions, and the followed diversification, took place after the Cretaceous–Paleogene boundary. Not older than 40 MYA, the youngest transitions within Gymnodiniaceae and Peridiniales occurred under the influence of the Eocene climate shift. Our evolutionary scenario indicates a gradual diversification of dinophytes without noticeable impact of catastrophic events, and their freshwater lineages have originated several times independently at different points in time

Psychological stress and other potential triggers for recurrences of herpes simplex virus eye infections

Objective To assess psychological stress and other factors as possible triggers of ocular herpes simplex virus (HSV) recurrences. Design A prospective cohort study nested in a randomized, placebo-controlled, clinical trial. Setting Fifty-eight community-based or university sites. Participants Immunocompetent adults (N = 308), aged 18 years or older, with a documented history of ocular HSV disease in the prior year and observed for up to 15 months. Exposure Variables Psychological stress, systemic infection, sunlight exposure, menstrual period, contact lens wear, and eye injury recorded on a weekly log. The exposure period was considered to be the week before symptomatic onset of a recurrence. Main Outcome Measure The first documented recurrence of ocular HSV disease, with exclusion of cases in which the exposure week log was completed late after the onset of symptoms. Results Thirty-three participants experienced a study outcome meeting these criteria. Higher levels of psychological stress were not associated with an increased risk of recurrence (rate ratio, 0.58; 95% confidence interval, 0.32-1.05; P = .07). No association was found between any of the other exposure variables and recurrence. When an analysis was performed including only the recurrences (n = 26) for which the exposure week log was completed late and after symptom onset, there was a clear indication of retrospective overreporting of high stress (P = .03) and systemic infection (P = .01). Not excluding these cases could have produced incorrect conclusions due to recall bias. Conclusions Psychological stress does not appear to be a trigger of recurrences of ocular HSV disease. If not accounted for, recall bias can substantially overestimate the importance of factors that do not have a causal association with HSV infection

Search for single vector-like B quark production and decay via B → bH(b¯b) in pp collisions at √s = 13 TeV with the ATLAS detector

A search is presented for single production of a vector-like B quark decaying into a Standard Model b-quark and a Standard Model Higgs boson, which decays into a b¯b pair. The search is carried out in 139 fb−1 of √s = 13 TeV proton-proton collision data collected by the ATLAS detector at the LHC between 2015 and 2018. No significant deviation from the Standard Model background prediction is observed, and mass-dependent exclusion limits at the 95% confidence level are set on the resonance production cross-section in several theoretical scenarios determined by the couplings cW, cZ and cH between the B quark and the Standard Model W, Z and Higgs bosons, respectively. For a vector-like B occurring as an isospin singlet, the search excludes values of cW greater than 0.45 for a B resonance mass (mB) between 1.0 and 1.2 TeV. For 1.2 TeV < mB < 2.0 TeV, cW values larger than 0.50–0.65 are excluded. If the B occurs as part of a (B, Y) doublet, the smallest excluded cZ coupling values range between 0.3 and 0.5 across the investigated resonance mass range 1.0 TeV < mB < 2.0 TeV

Search for resonances decaying into photon pairs in 139 fb−1 of pp collisions at √s = 13 TeV with the ATLAS detector

Searches for new resonances in the diphoton final state, with spin 0 as predicted by theories with an extended Higgs sector and with spin 2 using a warped extra-dimension benchmark model, are presented using 139 fb−1 of √s = 13 TeV pp collision data collected by the ATLAS experiment at the LHC. No significant deviation from the Standard Model is observed and upper limits are placed on the production cross-section times branching ratio to two photons as a function of the resonance mass