How simple rules determine pedestrian behavior and crowd disasters

With the increasing size and frequency of mass events, the study of crowd disasters and the simulation of pedestrian flows have become important research areas. Yet, even successful modeling approaches such as those inspired by Newtonian force models are still not fully consistent with empirical observations and are sometimes hard to calibrate. Here, a novel cognitive science approach is proposed, which is based on behavioral heuristics. We suggest that, guided by visual information, namely the distance of obstructions in candidate lines of sight, pedestrians apply two simple cognitive procedures to adapt their walking speeds and directions. While simpler than previous approaches, this model predicts individual trajectories and collective patterns of motion in good quantitative agreement with a large variety of empirical and experimental data. This includes the emergence of self-organization phenomena, such as the spontaneous formation of unidirectional lanes or stop-and-go waves. Moreover, the combination of pedestrian heuristics with body collisions generates crowd turbulence at extreme densities-a phenomenon that has been observed during recent crowd disasters. By proposing an integrated treatment of simultaneous interactions between multiple individuals, our approach overcomes limitations of current physics-inspired pair interaction models. Understanding crowd dynamics through cognitive heuristics is therefore not only crucial for a better preparation of safe mass events. It also clears the way for a more realistic modeling of collective social behaviors, in particular of human crowds and biological swarms. Furthermore, our behavioral heuristics may serve to improve the navigation of autonomous robots.Comment: Article accepted for publication in PNA

Information dynamics shape the networks of Internet-mediated prostitution

Like many other social phenomena, prostitution is increasingly coordinated over the Internet. The online behavior affects the offline activity; the reverse is also true. We investigated the reported sexual contacts between 6,624 anonymous escorts and 10,106 sex-buyers extracted from an online community from its beginning and six years on. These sexual encounters were also graded and categorized (in terms of the type of sexual activities performed) by the buyers. From the temporal, bipartite network of posts, we found a full feedback loop in which high grades on previous posts affect the future commercial success of the sex-worker, and vice versa. We also found a peculiar growth pattern in which the turnover of community members and sex workers causes a sublinear preferential attachment. There is, moreover, a strong geographic influence on network structure-the network is geographically clustered but still close to connected, the contacts consistent with the inverse-square law observed in trading patterns. We also found that the number of sellers scales sublinearly with city size, so this type of prostitution does not, comparatively speaking, benefit much from an increasing concentration of people

An Analytical Approach to Neuronal Connectivity

This paper describes how realistic neuromorphic networks can have their connectivity properties fully characterized in analytical fashion. By assuming that all neurons have the same shape and are regularly distributed along the two-dimensional orthogonal lattice with parameter $\Delta$, it is possible to obtain the accurate number of connections and cycles of any length from the autoconvolution function as well as from the respective spectral density derived from the adjacency matrix. It is shown that neuronal shape plays an important role in defining the spatial spread of network connections. In addition, most such networks are characterized by the interesting phenomenon where the connections are progressively shifted along the spatial domain where the network is embedded. It is also shown that the number of cycles follows a power law with their respective length. Morphological measurements for characterization of the spatial distribution of connections, including the adjacency matrix spectral density and the lacunarity of the connections, are suggested. The potential of the proposed approach is illustrated with respect to digital images of real neuronal cells.Comment: 4 pages, 6 figure

On Universality in Human Correspondence Activity

Identifying and modeling patterns of human activity has important ramifications in applications ranging from predicting disease spread to optimizing resource allocation. Because of its relevance and availability, written correspondence provides a powerful proxy for studying human activity. One school of thought is that human correspondence is driven by responses to received correspondence, a view that requires distinct response mechanism to explain e-mail and letter correspondence observations. Here, we demonstrate that, like e-mail correspondence, the letter correspondence patterns of 16 writers, performers, politicians, and scientists are well-described by the circadian cycle, task repetition and changing communication needs. We confirm the universality of these mechanisms by properly rescaling letter and e-mail correspondence statistics to reveal their underlying similarity.Comment: 17 pages, 3 figures, 1 tabl

Persistence and Uncertainty in the Academic Career

Understanding how institutional changes within academia may affect the overall potential of science requires a better quantitative representation of how careers evolve over time. Since knowledge spillovers, cumulative advantage, competition, and collaboration are distinctive features of the academic profession, both the employment relationship and the procedures for assigning recognition and allocating funding should be designed to account for these factors. We study the annual production n_{i}(t) of a given scientist i by analyzing longitudinal career data for 200 leading scientists and 100 assistant professors from the physics community. We compare our results with 21,156 sports careers. Our empirical analysis of individual productivity dynamics shows that (i) there are increasing returns for the top individuals within the competitive cohort, and that (ii) the distribution of production growth is a leptokurtic "tent-shaped" distribution that is remarkably symmetric. Our methodology is general, and we speculate that similar features appear in other disciplines where academic publication is essential and collaboration is a key feature. We introduce a model of proportional growth which reproduces these two observations, and additionally accounts for the significantly right-skewed distributions of career longevity and achievement in science. Using this theoretical model, we show that short-term contracts can amplify the effects of competition and uncertainty making careers more vulnerable to early termination, not necessarily due to lack of individual talent and persistence, but because of random negative production shocks. We show that fluctuations in scientific production are quantitatively related to a scientist's collaboration radius and team efficiency.Comment: 29 pages total: 8 main manuscript + 4 figs, 21 SI text + fig

Feasibility and coexistence of large ecological communities

The role of species interactions in controlling the interplay between the stability of ecosystems and their biodiversity is still not well understood. The ability of ecological communities to recover after small perturbations of the species abundances (local asymptotic stability) has been well studied, whereas the likelihood of a community to persist when the conditions change (structural stability) has received much less attention. Our goal is to understand the effects of diversity, interaction strengths and ecological network structure on the volume of parameter space leading to feasible equilibria. We develop a geometrical framework to study the range of conditions necessary for feasible coexistence. We show that feasibility is determined by few quantities describing the interactions, yielding a nontrivial complexity–feasibility relationship. Analysing more than 100 empirical networks, we show that the range of coexistence conditions in mutualistic systems can be analytically predicted. Finally, we characterize the geometric shape of the feasibility domain, thereby identifying the direction of perturbations that are more likely to cause extinctions

Scaling laws of human interaction activity

Even though people in our contemporary, technological society are depending on communication, our understanding of the underlying laws of human communicational behavior continues to be poorly understood. Here we investigate the communication patterns in two social Internet communities in search of statistical laws in human interaction activity. This research reveals that human communication networks dynamically follow scaling laws that may also explain the observed trends in economic growth. Specifically, we identify a generalized version of Gibrat's law of social activity expressed as a scaling law between the fluctuations in the number of messages sent by members and their level of activity. Gibrat's law has been essential in understanding economic growth patterns, yet without an underlying general principle for its origin. We attribute this scaling law to long-term correlation patterns in human activity, which surprisingly span from days to the entire period of the available data of more than one year. Further, we provide a mathematical framework that relates the generalized version of Gibrat's law to the long-term correlated dynamics, which suggests that the same underlying mechanism could be the source of Gibrat's law in economics, ranging from large firms, research and development expenditures, gross domestic product of countries, to city population growth. These findings are also of importance for designing communication networks and for the understanding of the dynamics of social systems in which communication plays a role, such as economic markets and political systems.Comment: 20+7 pages, 4+2 figure

Making it real: exploring the potential of Augmented Reality for teaching primary school science

The use of Augmented Reality (AR) in formal education could prove a key component in future learning environments that are richly populated with a blend of hardware and software applications. However, relatively little is known about the potential of this technology to support teaching and learning with groups of young children in the classroom. Analysis of teacher-child dialogue in a comparative study between use of an AR virtual mirror interface and more traditional science teaching methods for 10-year-old children, revealed that the children using AR were less engaged than those using traditional resources. We suggest four design requirements that need to be considered if AR is to be successfully adopted into classroom practice. These requirements are: flexible content that teachers can adapt to the needs of their children, guided exploration so learning opportunities can be maximised, in a limited time, and attention to the needs of institutional and curricular requirements

A simple physical model for scaling in protein-protein interaction networks

It has recently been demonstrated that many biological networks exhibit a scale-free topology where the probability of observing a node with a certain number of edges (k) follows a power law: i.e. p(k) ~ k^-g. This observation has been reproduced by evolutionary models. Here we consider the network of protein-protein interactions and demonstrate that two published independent measurements of these interactions produce graphs that are only weakly correlated with one another despite their strikingly similar topology. We then propose a physical model based on the fundamental principle that (de)solvation is a major physical factor in protein-protein interactions. This model reproduces not only the scale-free nature of such graphs but also a number of higher-order correlations in these networks. A key support of the model is provided by the discovery of a significant correlation between number of interactions made by a protein and the fraction of hydrophobic residues on its surface. The model presented in this paper represents the first physical model for experimentally determined protein-protein interactions that comprehensively reproduces the topological features of interaction networks. These results have profound implications for understanding not only protein-protein interactions but also other types of scale-free networks.Comment: 50 pages, 17 figure

Dispensability of Escherichia coli's latent pathways

Gene-knockout experiments on single-cell organisms have established that expression of a substantial fraction of genes is not needed for optimal growth. This problem acquired a new dimension with the recent discovery that environmental and genetic perturbations of the bacterium Escherichia coli are followed by the temporary activation of a large number of latent metabolic pathways, which suggests the hypothesis that temporarily activated reactions impact growth and hence facilitate adaptation in the presence of perturbations. Here we test this hypothesis computationally and find, surprisingly, that the availability of latent pathways consistently offers no growth advantage, and tends in fact to inhibit growth after genetic perturbations. This is shown to be true even for latent pathways with a known function in alternate conditions, thus extending the significance of this adverse effect beyond apparently nonessential genes. These findings raise the possibility that latent pathway activation is in fact derivative of another, potentially suboptimal, adaptive response