Model Matematika Penyebaran Penyakit Demam Berdarah Dengue Tipe Seir Infeksi Ganda

Dengue adalah salah satu penyakit infeksi yang ditularkan ke manusia oleh gigitan nyamuk Aedes aegypti atau Aedes albopictus. Infeksi virus dengue berupa demam dengue, demam berdarah dengue dan Dengue Shock Syndrome (DSS). Virus dengue mempunyai empat jenis serotipe yaitu: DEN_1, DEN_2, DEN_3, DEN_4. Pada model, akan dipelajari dinamika penyebaran penyakit demam berdarah dengue yang terjadi akibat adanya infeksi ganda yang disebut infeksi I dan infeksi II. Dari model kemudian akan ditentukan titik tetap. Selanjutnya dianalisis kestabilan dari masing-masing titik tetap dengan mempertimbangkan bilangan reproduksi dasar (ℛ0). Untuk menunjukkan perilaku populasi yang muncul dalam proses infeksi I dan infeksi II pada kondisi ℛ0<1 dan ℛ0>1, maka dilakukan simulasi. Selain itu, simulasi juga dilakukan untuk melihat pengaruh laju kematian nyamuk dan vaksinasi terhadap penyebaran penyakit. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan dengan meningkatnya laju kematian nyamuk, populasi manusia dan nyamuk pada kelas rentan semakin meningkat dan populasi manusia dan nyamuk pada kelas lainya semakin menurun. Sementara untuk vaksinasi, semakin meningkatnya efektivitas vaksin, manusia pada kelas rentan sudah semakin berkurang sehingga menyebabkan manusia pada kelas terpapar dan terinfeksi semakin berkurang. Hal ini disebabkan karena sudah banyak manusia yang sembu

Antimicrobial susceptibility to zinc bacitracin of Clostridium perfringens of rabbit origin

Zinc bacitracin is widely used in Italian rabbit farms to control both Epizootic Rabbit Enteropathy (ERE) and clostridiosis, and field results demonstrate useful activity. Nevertheless, data regarding the in vitro efficacy of zinc bacitracin against clostridia of rabbit origin are not available. In this study, the minimal inhibitory concentrations (MICs) of zinc bacitracin were evaluated in 123 C. perfringens strains isolated from rabbits in Italian fattening units. The agar dilution method was performed in Brucella Agar supplemented with laked sheep blood, haemin and vitamin K1, as recommended in NCCLS document M11-A6. Most strains (94.3%) had low MIC values (£ 0.5 mg/ml), and a few strains (4%) were inhibited by a concentration of 1 mg/ml. Two isolates (1.6%) had a MIC value of 16mg/ml. The MIC values of ATCC reference strains showed a good fit between each batch. MIC required to inhibit the 90% of organisms was 0.5 mg/ml and the presence of only two strains with MIC=16 mg/ml revealed the susceptibility to zinc bacitracin of Italian isolates of C. perfringens from rabbit and the absence of acquired resistance.Agnoletti, F.; Bacchin, C.; Bano, L.; Passera, A.; Favretti, M.; Mazzolini, E. (2007). Antimicrobial susceptibility to zinc bacitracin of Clostridium perfringens of rabbit origin. World Rabbit Science. 15(1):19-22. doi:10.4995/wrs.2007.609192215

MODEL MATEMATIKA PENYEBARAN PENYAKIT DEMAM BERDARAH DENGUE TIPE SEIR INFEKSI GANDA

Dengue adalah salah satu penyakit infeksi yang ditularkan ke manusia oleh gigitan nyamuk Aedes aegypti atau Aedes albopictus. Infeksi virus dengue berupa demam dengue, demam berdarah dengue dan Dengue Shock Syndrome (DSS). Virus dengue mempunyai empat jenis serotipe yaitu: DEN_1, DEN_2, DEN_3, DEN_4. Pada model, akan dipelajari dinamika penyebaran penyakit demam berdarah dengue yang terjadi akibat adanya infeksi ganda yang disebut infeksi I dan infeksi II. Dari model kemudian akan ditentukan titik tetap. Selanjutnya dianalisis kestabilan dari masing-masing titik tetap dengan mempertimbangkan bilangan reproduksi dasar (ℛ0). Untuk menunjukkan perilaku populasi yang muncul dalam proses infeksi I dan infeksi II pada kondisi ℛ0<1 dan ℛ0>1, maka dilakukan simulasi. Selain itu, simulasi juga dilakukan untuk melihat pengaruh laju kematian nyamuk dan vaksinasi terhadap penyebaran penyakit. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan dengan meningkatnya laju kematian nyamuk, populasi manusia dan nyamuk pada kelas rentan semakin meningkat dan populasi manusia dan nyamuk pada kelas lainya semakin menurun. Sementara untuk vaksinasi, semakin meningkatnya efektivitas vaksin, manusia pada kelas rentan sudah semakin berkurang sehingga menyebabkan manusia pada kelas terpapar dan terinfeksi semakin berkurang. Hal ini disebabkan karena sudah banyak manusia yang sembu

Solving heterogeneous-agent models with parameterized cross-sectional distributions

A new algorithm is developed to solve models with heterogeneous agents and aggregate uncertainty. Projection methods are the main building blocks of the algorithm and – in contrast to the most popular solution procedure – simulations only play a very minor role. The paper also develops a new simulation procedure that not only avoids cross-sectional sampling variation but is 10 (66) times faster than simulating an economy with 10,000 (100,000) agents. Because it avoids cross-sectional sampling variation, it can generate an accurate representation of the whole cross-sectional distribution. Finally, the paper outlines a set of accuracy tests

Muallim Mustel

Alexander Dumas (fils)'nin Tercüman-ı Hakikat'te yayımlanan Muallim Mustel adlı romanının ilk ve son tefrikalar

Substantial and sustained reduction in under-5 mortality, diarrhea, and pneumonia in Oshikhandass, Pakistan : Evidence from two longitudinal cohort studies 15 years apart

Funding Information: Study 1 was funded through the Applied Diarrheal Disease Research Program at Harvard Institute for International Development with a grant from USAID (Project 936–5952, Cooperative Agreement # DPE-5952-A-00-5073-00), and the Aga Khan Health Service, Northern Areas and Chitral, Pakistan. Study 2 was funded by the Pakistan US S&T Cooperative Agreement between the Pakistan Higher Education Commission (HEC) (No.4–421/PAK-US/HEC/2010/955, grant to the Karakoram International University) and US National Academies of Science (Grant Number PGA-P211012 from NAS to the Fogarty International Center). The funding bodies had no role in the design of the study, data collection, analysis, interpretation, or writing of the manuscript. Publisher Copyright: © 2020 The Author(s).Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Cultural Adaptation and Validation of the Urdu Version of the Cognitive Emotion Regulation Questionnaire (CERQ) in Male Patients With Substance Use Disorders (SUDs) in Pakistan

Background Adults with substance use disorders (SUDs) often have co-occurring mental health problems. Emotion regulation may play a vital role in mental health problems. The Cognitive Emotion Regulation Questionnaire (CERQ) is a widely used measure for assessing cognitive emotion regulation. However, it has not been used in Pakistan on patients with co-occurring SUDs and mental health issues. The present study aims to translate and adapt the CERQ into the Urdu language and to determine its reliability and convergent validity in a sample of male patients with SUDs in Pakistan. Method Participants completed a demographic information form, the CERQ, the Depression, Anxiety, and Stress Scale Short Form [DASS-21)], and the Rosenberg Self-Esteem Scale [RSES)] in Urdu. Results Male participants (N = 237) 18–50 years of age (M = 29.8, SD = 8.1) were recruited from four substance use disorder treatment centers and hospitals in Karachi. The reliability of the Urdu version of the CERQ was based on an examination of its internal consistency reliability (Cronbach's α) and test–retest reliability for both the total scale and its subscales. Internal consistency for the CERQ total (α = 0.80) was adequate, as it was for subscales of self-blame, (0.76) acceptance (0.78), rumination (0.72), positive refocusing (0.79), focus on planning (0.89), positive reappraisal (0.81), putting into perspective (0.83), catastrophizing (0.73), and other blame (0.70). The 10–14 day test–retest reliability of the CERQ total score was 0.86. Higher CERQ scores were significantly (ps < 0.001) negatively associated with DASS-21depression (r = –0.24), anxiety (r = –0.23), and stress (r = –0.27) subscales, as well as the DASS-21 total score (r = –0.26) and positively associated with the RSES self-esteem score (r = 0.30). Conclusion The Urdu version of the CERQ is a reliable measure for investigating cognitive emotion regulation strategies related to mental health and SUDs in Pakistan

Deep learning-based fetoscopic mosaicking for field-of-view expansion

PURPOSE: Fetoscopic laser photocoagulation is a minimally invasive surgical procedure used to treat twin-to-twin transfusion syndrome (TTTS), which involves localization and ablation of abnormal vascular connections on the placenta to regulate the blood flow in both fetuses. This procedure is particularly challenging due to the limited field of view, poor visibility, occasional bleeding, and poor image quality. Fetoscopic mosaicking can help in creating an image with the expanded field of view which could facilitate the clinicians during the TTTS procedure. METHODS: We propose a deep learning-based mosaicking framework for diverse fetoscopic videos captured from different settings such as simulation, phantoms, ex vivo, and in vivo environments. The proposed mosaicking framework extends an existing deep image homography model to handle video data by introducing the controlled data generation and consistent homography estimation modules. Training is performed on a small subset of fetoscopic images which are independent of the testing videos. RESULTS: We perform both quantitative and qualitative evaluations on 5 diverse fetoscopic videos (2400 frames) that captured different environments. To demonstrate the robustness of the proposed framework, a comparison is performed with the existing feature-based and deep image homography methods. CONCLUSION: The proposed mosaicking framework outperformed existing methods and generated meaningful mosaic, while reducing the accumulated drift, even in the presence of visual challenges such as specular highlights, reflection, texture paucity, and low video resolution

Association of Patients’ Epidemiological Characteristics and Comorbidities with Severity and Related Mortality Risk of SARS-CoV-2 Infection: Results of an Umbrella Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

The objective of this study was to assess the association between patients’ epidemiological characteristics and comorbidities with SARS-CoV-2 infection severity and related mortality risk. An umbrella systematic review, including a meta-analysis examining the association between patients’ underlying conditions and severity (defined as need for hospitalization) and mortality of COVID-19, was performed. Studies were included if they reported pooled risk estimates of at least three underlying determinants for hospitalization, critical disease (ICU admission, mechanical ventilation), and hospital mortality in patients diagnosed with SARS-CoV-2 infection. Evidence was summarized as pooled odds ratios (pOR) for disease outcomes with 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). Sixteen systematic reviews investigating the possible associations of comorbidities with severity or death from COVID-19 disease were included. Hospitalization was associated with age &gt; 60 years (pOR 3.50; 95% CI 2.97–4.36), smoking habit (pOR 3.50; 95% CI 2.97–4.36), and chronic pulmonary disease (pOR 2.94; 95% CI 2.14–4.04). Chronic pulmonary disease (pOR 2.82; 95% CI 1.92–4.14), cerebrovascular disease (pOR 2.74; 95% CI 1.59–4.74), and cardiovascular disease (pOR 2.44; 95% CI 1.97–3.01) were likely to be associated with increased risk of critical COVID-19. The highest risk of mortality was associated with cardiovascular disease (pOR 3.59; 95% CI 2.83–4.56), cerebrovascular disease (pOR 3.11; 95% CI 2.35–4.11), and chronic renal disease (pOR 3.02; 95% CI 2.61–3.49). In conclusion, this umbrella systematic review provides a comprehensive summary of meta-analyses examining the impact of patients’ characteristics on COVID-19 outcomes. Elderly patients and those cardiovascular, cerebrovascular, and chronic renal disease should be prioritized for pre-exposure and post-exposure prophylaxis and early treatment

Dynamic bacterial and viral response to an algal bloom at subzero temperatures

New evidence suggests that cold‐loving (psychrophilic) bacteria may be a dynamic component of the episodic bloom events of high‐latitude ecosystems. Here we report the results of an unusually early springtime study of pelagic microbial activity in the coastal Alaskan Arctic. Heterotrophic bacterioplankton clearly responded to an algal bloom by doubling cell size, increasing the fraction of actively respiring cells (up to an unprecedented 84% metabolically active using redox dye CTC), shifting substrate‐uptake capabilities from kinetic parameters better adapted to lower substrate concentrations to those more suited for higher concentrations, and more than doubling cell abundance. Community composition (determined by polymerase chain reaction/DGGE and nucleotide sequence analysis) also shifted over the bloom. Results support, for the first time with modern molecular methods, previous culture‐based observations of bacterial community succession during Arctic algal blooms and confirm that previously observed variability in pelagic microbial activity can be linked to changes in community structure. During early bloom stages, virioplankton and bacterial abundance were comparable, suggesting that mortality due to phage infection was low at that time. The virus‐to‐bacteria ratio (VBR) increased 10‐fold at the height of the bloom, however, suggesting an increased potential for bacterioplankton mortality resulting from viral infection. The peak in VBR coincided with observed shifts in both microbial activity and community structure. These early‐season data suggest that substrate and virioplankton interactions may control the active microbial carbon cycling of this region