Risk Model Development and Validation for Prediction of Coronary Artery Aneurysms in Kawasaki Disease in a North American Population.

Background Accurate prediction of coronary artery aneurysms ( CAAs ) in patients with Kawasaki disease remains challenging in North American cohorts. We sought to develop and validate a risk model for CAA prediction. Methods and Results A binary outcome of CAA was defined as left anterior descending or right coronary artery Z score ≥2.5 at 2 to 8 weeks after fever onset in a development cohort (n=903) and a validation cohort (n=185) of patients with Kawasaki disease. Associations of baseline clinical, laboratory, and echocardiographic variables with later CAA were assessed in the development cohort using logistic regression. Discrimination (c statistic) and calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow) of the final model were evaluated. A practical risk score assigning points to each variable in the final model was created based on model coefficients from the development cohort. Predictors of CAAs at 2 to 8 weeks were baseline Z score of left anterior descending or right coronary artery ≥2.0, age <6 months, Asian race, and C-reactive protein ≥13 mg/ dL (c=0.82 in the development cohort, c=0.93 in the validation cohort). The CAA risk score assigned 2 points for baseline Z score of left anterior descending or right coronary artery ≥2.0 and 1 point for each of the other variables, with creation of low- (0-1), moderate- (2), and high- (3-5) risk groups. The odds of CAA s were 16-fold greater in the high- versus the low-risk groups in the development cohort (odds ratio, 16.4; 95% CI , 9.71-27.7 [ P<0.001]), and >40-fold greater in the validation cohort (odds ratio, 44.0; 95% CI, 10.8-180 [ P<0.001]). Conclusions Our risk model for CAA in Kawasaki disease consisting of baseline demographic, laboratory, and echocardiographic variables had excellent predictive utility and should undergo prospective testing

Treatment Intensification in Patients With Kawasaki Disease and Coronary Aneurysm at Diagnosis.

BackgroundCoronary artery aneurysms (CAA) are a serious complication of Kawasaki disease. Treatment with intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIg) within 10 days of fever onset reduces the risk of CAA from 25% to <5%. Corticosteroids and infliximab are often used in high-risk patients or those with CAA at diagnosis, but there are no data on their longer-term impact on CAA.MethodsRetrospective multicenter study including children who had CAA with a z score ≥2.5 and <10 at time of diagnosis and who received primary therapy with IVIg alone or in combination with either corticosteroids or infliximab within 10 days of onset of fever.ResultsOf 121 children, with a median age of 2.8 (range 0.1-15.5) years, 30 (25%) received primary therapy with corticosteroids and IVIg, 58 (48%) received primary therapy with infliximab and IVIg, and 33 (27%) received primary therapy with IVIg only. Median coronary z scores at the time of diagnosis did not differ among treatment groups (P = .39). Primary treatment intensification with either corticosteroids or infliximab were independent protective factors against progression of coronary size on follow-up (coefficient: -1.31 [95% confidence interval: -2.33 to -0.29]; coefficient: -1.07 [95% confidence interval: -1.95 to -0.19], respectively).ConclusionsAmong a high-risk group of patients with Kawasaki disease with CAA on baseline echocardiography, those treated with corticosteroids or infliximab in addition to IVIg had less progression in CAA size compared with those treated with IVIg alone. Prospective randomized trials are needed to determine the best adjunctive treatment of patients who present with CAA

Understanding Caregiver Strain in Parkinsonism—A Mixed Methods Approach

Background: Parkinsonism, including Parkinson’s disease (PD) are progressive neurological conditions. As these condition progress, individuals will need more support with their care needs to maintain independent community-living. Care needs are mainly met by unpaid, informal caregivers, usually close family members or friends. Caregiver strain is thought to lead to the need for care home placement when the caregiver can no longer cope. Objective: To understand predictors of caregiver strain and its influence on care home placement for people with moderate to advanced Parkinsonism. Methods: This is a convergent mixed methods study. Quantitative data, following an adapted stress-appraisal model, were collected on caregiver profile, tasks performed and causes of caregiver strain. Semi-structured, in-depth interviews were conducted with caregivers of people with PD (PwP) who went into a care home during the study period, to develop a deeper understanding of the caregiver role and the factors influencing caregiver strain. Results: Quantitative data were collected from 115 patient caregiver dyads. Interviews were conducted with 10 caregivers. A model to predict caregiver strain was developed and predictors of caregiver strain were identified, such as functional disability and poor caregiver sleep. Conclusion: Our findings further demonstrate the complexity of carer strain. Particular dimensions are identified that need to be addressed within clinical practice to reduce carer strain and support people with Parkinsonism to remain within their own home for as long as possible

Genome-wide linkage and association mapping identify susceptibility alleles in ABCC4 for Kawasaki disease

BACKGROUND: Kawasaki disease (KD) is a self limited vasculitis in which host genetics plays a prominent role. To further the understanding of the role of host genetics in KD, a three-stage genetic study was conducted that began with a family linkage study and ultimately involved more than 3000 individuals to identify new genetic contributions to KD susceptibility. METHODS AND RESULTS: A 26-family linkage study followed by fine mapping was performed in a cohort of 1284 KD subjects and their family members (total 3248 individuals). Suggestive evidence of disease linkage (logarithm of odds (LOD) ≥3.0, p<1.00×10(-4)) was found for five genomic locations (Chr 3q, 4q, 10p, 13q, 21q). Two of these loci (Chr 4q and Chr 13q) overlapped with validated findings from a recent KD genome-wide association study. Fine mapping analysis revealed three single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in ATP-binding cassette, subfamily C, member 4 (ABCC4) underlying the Chr 13q linkage peak showing evidence of association to KD (lowest p=8.82×10(-5); combined OR 2.00, 95% CI 1.41 to 2.83). ABCC4 is a multifunctional cyclic nucleotide transporter that stimulates the migratory capacity of dendritic cells. It is also a mediator of prostaglandin efflux from human cells and is inhibited by non-steroidal anti-inflammatory medications such as aspirin. CONCLUSION: These genetic data suggest that ABCC4 could play a fundamental role in KD pathogenesis with effects on immune activation and vascular response to injury

Predicting Coronary Artery Aneurysms in Kawasaki Disease at a North American Center: An Assessment of Baseline z Scores

Background: Accurate risk prediction of coronary artery aneurysms (CAAs) in North American children with Kawasaki disease remains a clinical challenge. We sought to determine the predictive utility of baseline coronary dimensions adjusted for body surface area (z scores) for future CAAs in Kawasaki disease and explored the extent to which addition of established Japanese risk scores to baseline coronary artery z scores improved discrimination for CAA development. Methods and Results: We explored the relationships of CAA with baseline z scores; with Kobayashi, Sano, Egami, and Harada risk scores; and with the combination of baseline z scores and risk scores. We defined CAA as a maximum z score (zMax) ≥2.5 of the left anterior descending or right coronary artery at 4 to 8 weeks of illness. Of 261 patients, 77 patients (29%) had a baseline zMax ≥2.0. CAAs occurred in 15 patients (6%). CAAs were strongly associated with baseline zMax ≥2.0 versus <2.0 (12 [16%] versus 3 [2%], respectively, P<0.001). Baseline zMax ≥2.0 had a C statistic of 0.77, good sensitivity (80%), and excellent negative predictive value (98%). None of the risk scores alone had adequate discrimination. When high‐risk status per the Japanese risk scores was added to models containing baseline zMax ≥2.0, none were significantly better than baseline zMax ≥2.0 alone. Conclusions: In a North American center, baseline zMax ≥2.0 in children with Kawasaki disease demonstrated high predictive utility for later development of CAA. Future studies should validate the utility of our findings

Genetic risk and a primary role for cell-mediated immune mechanisms in multiple sclerosis.

Multiple sclerosis is a common disease of the central nervous system in which the interplay between inflammatory and neurodegenerative processes typically results in intermittent neurological disturbance followed by progressive accumulation of disability. Epidemiological studies have shown that genetic factors are primarily responsible for the substantially increased frequency of the disease seen in the relatives of affected individuals, and systematic attempts to identify linkage in multiplex families have confirmed that variation within the major histocompatibility complex (MHC) exerts the greatest individual effect on risk. Modestly powered genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have enabled more than 20 additional risk loci to be identified and have shown that multiple variants exerting modest individual effects have a key role in disease susceptibility. Most of the genetic architecture underlying susceptibility to the disease remains to be defined and is anticipated to require the analysis of sample sizes that are beyond the numbers currently available to individual research groups. In a collaborative GWAS involving 9,772 cases of European descent collected by 23 research groups working in 15 different countries, we have replicated almost all of the previously suggested associations and identified at least a further 29 novel susceptibility loci. Within the MHC we have refined the identity of the HLA-DRB1 risk alleles and confirmed that variation in the HLA-A gene underlies the independent protective effect attributable to the class I region. Immunologically relevant genes are significantly overrepresented among those mapping close to the identified loci and particularly implicate T-helper-cell differentiation in the pathogenesis of multiple sclerosis

Above-ground biomass and structure of 260 African tropical forests.

We report above-ground biomass (AGB), basal area, stem density and wood mass density estimates from 260 sample plots (mean size: 1.2 ha) in intact closed-canopy tropical forests across 12 African countries. Mean AGB is 395.7 Mg dry mass ha⁻¹ (95% CI: 14.3), substantially higher than Amazonian values, with the Congo Basin and contiguous forest region attaining AGB values (429 Mg ha⁻¹) similar to those of Bornean forests, and significantly greater than East or West African forests. AGB therefore appears generally higher in palaeo- compared with neotropical forests. However, mean stem density is low (426 ± 11 stems ha⁻¹ greater than or equal to 100 mm diameter) compared with both Amazonian and Bornean forests (cf. approx. 600) and is the signature structural feature of African tropical forests. While spatial autocorrelation complicates analyses, AGB shows a positive relationship with rainfall in the driest nine months of the year, and an opposite association with the wettest three months of the year; a negative relationship with temperature; positive relationship with clay-rich soils; and negative relationships with C : N ratio (suggesting a positive soil phosphorus-AGB relationship), and soil fertility computed as the sum of base cations. The results indicate that AGB is mediated by both climate and soils, and suggest that the AGB of African closed-canopy tropical forests may be particularly sensitive to future precipitation and temperature changes