Sahel decadal rainfall variability and the role of model horizontal resolution

Substantial low-frequency rainfall fluctuations occurred in the Sahel throughout the twentieth century, causing devastating drought. Modeling these low-frequency rainfall fluctuations has remained problematic for climate models for many years. Here we show using a combination of state-of-the-art rainfall observations and high-resolution global climate models that changes in organized heavy rainfall events carry most of the rainfall variability in the Sahel at multiannual to decadal time scales. Ability to produce intense, organized convection allows climate models to correctly simulate the magnitude of late-twentieth century rainfall change, underlining the importance of model resolution. Increasing model resolution allows a better coupling between large-scale circulation changes and regional rainfall processes over the Sahel. These results provide a strong basis for developing more reliable and skilful long-term predictions of rainfall (seasons to years) which could benefit many sectors in the region by allowing early adaptation to impending extremes

Indoor CO2 and Thermal Conditions in Twenty Scottish Primary School Classrooms with Different Ventilation Systems during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Healthy indoor environments influence the comfort, health and wellbeing of the occupants. Monitoring the indoor temperature, relative humidity and CO2 levels in primary schools during the COVID-19 pandemic was mandated by a local authority in Scotland. The aim was to investigate the comfort and safety of the teachers and their pupils. This paper presents the measurements of indoor climate in 20 classrooms in four different primary schools in Scotland. The schools were of different architypes. The classrooms were of different sizes, orientations and occupancy, and had different ventilation systems. Ventilation was achieved either by manually opening the windows, or by a mechanical ventilation system. Indoor air temperature, relative humidity and carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations were continuously monitored for one week during the heating season 2020/21. Occupancy and opening of the windows were logged in by the teachers. The ventilation rates in the classrooms were estimated by measuring the CO2 concentrations. On the 20 classrooms of the study, data of 19 were analysed. The results show that four of the five mechan-ically ventilated classrooms performed better than natural ventilation, which indicates that opening the windows depended on the customs and habits. Classrooms in naturally ventilated Victorian buildings have the worst average ventilation rate (4.38 L/s per person) compared to the other classrooms (5.8 L/s per person for the more recent naturally ventilated ones, and 6.08 L/s per person for the mechanically ventilated ones). The results of this preliminary study will be used as the basis to find ways to ensure adequate ventilation in natural ventilated classrooms

Palmitoleic acid prevents palmitic acid-induced macrophage activation and consequent p38 MAPK-mediated-skeletal muscle insulin resistance

Obesity and saturated fatty acid (SFA) treatment are both associated with skeletal muscle insulin resistance (IR) and increased macrophage infiltration. However, the relative effects of SFA and unsaturated fatty acid (UFA)-activated macrophages on muscle are unknown. Here, macrophages were treated with palmitic acid, palmitoleic acid or both and the effects of the conditioned medium (CM) on C2C12 myotubes investigated. CM from palmitic acid-treated J774s (palm-mac-CM) impaired insulin signalling and insulin-stimulated glycogen synthesis, reduced Inhibitor κBα and increased phosphorylation of p38 mitogen-activated protein kinase (MAPK) and c-Jun N-terminal kinase in myotubes. p38 MAPK inhibition or siRNA partially ameliorated these defects, as did addition of tumour necrosis factor-α blocking antibody to the CM. Macrophages incubated with both FAs generated CM that did not induce IR, while palmitoleic acid-mac-CM alone was insulin sensitising. Thus UFAs may improve muscle insulin sensitivity and counteract SFA-mediated IR through an effect on macrophage activation

Globally Gridded Satellite (GridSat) Observations for Climate Studies

Geostationary satellites have provided routine, high temporal resolution Earth observations since the 1970s. Despite the long period of record, use of these data in climate studies has been limited for numerous reasons, among them: there is no central archive of geostationary data for all international satellites, full temporal and spatial resolution data are voluminous, and diverse calibration and navigation formats encumber the uniform processing needed for multi-satellite climate studies. The International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project set the stage for overcoming these issues by archiving a subset of the full resolution geostationary data at approx.10 km resolution at 3 hourly intervals since 1983. Recent efforts at NOAA s National Climatic Data Center to provide convenient access to these data include remapping the data to a standard map projection, recalibrating the data to optimize temporal homogeneity, extending the record of observations back to 1980, and reformatting the data for broad public distribution. The Gridded Satellite (GridSat) dataset includes observations from the visible, infrared window, and infrared water vapor channels. Data are stored in the netCDF format using standards that permit a wide variety of tools and libraries to quickly and easily process the data. A novel data layering approach, together with appropriate satellite and file metadata, allows users to access GridSat data at varying levels of complexity based on their needs. The result is a climate data record already in use by the meteorological community. Examples include reanalysis of tropical cyclones, studies of global precipitation, and detection and tracking of the intertropical convergence zone

The West African Monsoon Onset: a concise comparison of definitions

The onset of the West African Monsoon (WAM) marks a vital time for local and regional stakeholders. Whilst the seasonal progression of monsoon winds and the related migration of precipitation from the Guinea Coast towards the Soudan/Sahel is apparent, there exist contrasting man-made definitions of what the WAM onset means. Broadly speaking, onset can be analyzed regionally, locally or over a designated intermediate scale. There are at least eighteen distinct definitions of the WAM onset in publication with little work done on comparing observed onset from different definitions or comparing onset realizations across different datasets and resolutions. Here, nine definitions have been calculated using multiple datasets of different metrics at different resolution. It is found that mean regional onset dates are consistent across multiple datasets and different definitions. There is low inter-annual variability in regional onset suggesting that regional seasonal forecasting of the onset provides few benefits over climatology. In contrast, local onsets show high spatial, inter-annual and inter-definition variability. Furthermore it is found that there is little correlation between local onset dates and regional onset dates across West Africa implying a disharmony between regional measures of onset and the experience on a local scale. The results of this study show that evaluation of seasonal monsoon onset forecasts is far from straightforward. Given a seasonal forecasting model, it is possible to simultaneously have a good and bad prediction of monsoon onset simply through selection of onset definition and observational dataset used for comparison

Do convection-permitting ensembles lead to more skilful short-range probabilistic rainfall forecasts over tropical East Africa?

Convection-permitting ensemble prediction systems (CP-ENS) have been implemented in the mid-latitudes for weather forecasting timescales over the past decade, enabled by the increase in computational resources. Recently, efforts are being made to study the benefits of CP-ENS for tropical regions. This study examines CP-ENS forecasts produced by the UK Met Office over tropical East Africa, for 24 cases in the period April-May 2019. The CP-ENS, an ensemble with parametrized convection (Glob-ENS), and their deterministic counterparts are evaluated against rainfall estimates derived from satellite observations (GPM-IMERG). The CP configurations have the best representation of the diurnal cycle, although heavy rainfall amounts are overestimated compared to observations. Pairwise comparisons between the different configurations reveal that the CP-ENS is generally the most skilful forecast for both 3-h and 24-h accumulations of heavy rainfall (97th percentile), followed by the CP deterministic forecast. More precisely, probabilistic forecasts of heavy rainfall, verified using a neighbourhood approach, show that the CP-ENS is skilful at scales greater than 100 km, significantly better than the Glob-ENS, although not as good as found in the mid-latitudes. Skill decreases with lead time and varies diurnally, especially for CP forecasts. The CP-ENS is under-spread both in terms of forecasting the locations of heavy rainfall and in terms of domain-averaged rainfall. This study demonstrates potential benefits in using CP-ENS for operational forecasting of heavy rainfall over tropical Africa and gives specific suggestions for further research and development, including probabilistic forecast guidance