Identifying key controls on storm formation over the Lake Victoria Basin

The Lake Victoria region in East Africa is a hotspot for intense convective storms that are responsible for the deaths of thousands of fisherman each year. The processes responsible for the initiation, development and propagation of the storms are poorly understood and forecast skill is limited. Key processes for the lifecycle of two storms are investigated using Met Office Unified Model convection-permitting simulations with 1.5 km horizontal gridspacing. The two cases are analysed alongside a simulation of a period with no storms to assess the roles of the lake–land breeze, downslope mountain winds, prevailing large-scale winds and moisture availability. Whilst seasonal changes in large-scale moisture availability play a key role in storm development, the lake–land breeze circulation is a major control on the initiation location, timing and propagation of convection. In the dry season, opposing offshore winds form a bulge of moist air above the lake surface overnight that extends from the surface to ~1.5 km and may trigger storms in high CAPE/low CIN environments. Such a feature has not been explicitly observed or modelled in previous literature. Storms over land on the preceding day are shown to alter the local atmospheric moisture and circulation to promote storm formation over the lake. The variety of initiation processes and differing characteristics of just two storms analysed here show that the mean diurnal cycle over Lake Victoria alone is inadequate to fully understand storm formation. Knowledge of daily changes in local-scale moisture variability and circulations are key for skilful forecasts over the lake

On what scale can we predict the agronomic onset of the West African Monsoon?

Accurate prediction of the commencement of local rainfall over West Africa can provide vital information for local stakeholders and regional planners. However, in comparison with analysis of the regional onset of the West African Monsoon, the spatial variability of the local monsoon onset has not been extensively explored. One of the main reasons behind the lack of local onset forecast analysis is the spatial noisiness of local rainfall. A new method that evaluates the spatial scale at which local onsets are coherent across West Africa is presented. This new method can be thought of as analogous to a regional signal against local noise analysis of onset. This method highlights regions where local onsets exhibit a quantifiable degree of spatial consistency (denoted local onset regions or LORs). It is found that local onsets exhibit a useful amount of spatial agreement, with LORs apparent across the entire studied domain; this is in contrast to previously found results. Identifying local onset regions and understanding their variability can provide important insight into the spatial limit of monsoon predictability. Whilst local onset regions can be found over West Africa, their size is much smaller than the scale found for seasonal rainfall homogeneity. A potential use of local onset regions is presented that shows the link between the annual Inter-Tropical Front progression and local agronomic onset

TGFβR signalling determines CD103⁺CD11b⁺ dendritic cell development in the intestine

CD103+CD11b+ dendritic cells (DCs) are unique to the intestine, but the factors governing their differentiation are unclear. Here we show that transforming growth factor receptor 1 (TGFβR1) has an indispensable, cell intrinsic role in the development of these cells. Deletion of Tgfbr1 results in markedly fewer intestinal CD103+CD11b+ DCs and a reciprocal increase in the CD103−CD11b+ dendritic cell subset. Transcriptional profiling identifies markers that define the CD103+CD11b+ DC lineage, including CD101, TREM1 and Siglec-F, and shows that the absence of CD103+CD11b+ DCs in CD11c-Cre.Tgfbr1fl/fl mice reflects defective differentiation from CD103−CD11b+ intermediaries, rather than an isolated loss of CD103 expression. The defect in CD103+CD11b+ DCs is accompanied by reduced generation of antigen-specific, inducible FoxP3+ regulatory T cells in vitro and in vivo, and by reduced numbers of endogenous Th17 cells in the intestinal mucosa. Thus, TGFβR1-mediated signalling may explain the tissue-specific development of these unique DCs

To respond or not to respond - a personal perspective of intestinal tolerance

For many years, the intestine was one of the poor relations of the immunology world, being a realm inhabited mostly by specialists and those interested in unusual phenomena. However, this has changed dramatically in recent years with the realization of how important the microbiota is in shaping immune function throughout the body, and almost every major immunology institution now includes the intestine as an area of interest. One of the most important aspects of the intestinal immune system is how it discriminates carefully between harmless and harmful antigens, in particular, its ability to generate active tolerance to materials such as commensal bacteria and food proteins. This phenomenon has been recognized for more than 100 years, and it is essential for preventing inflammatory disease in the intestine, but its basis remains enigmatic. Here, I discuss the progress that has been made in understanding oral tolerance during my 40 years in the field and highlight the topics that will be the focus of future research

Inhibitor of DNA Binding 3 Limits Development of Murine Slam-Associated Adaptor Protein-Dependent “Innate” γδ T cells

Id3 is a dominant antagonist of E protein transcription factor activity that is induced by signals emanating from the alphabeta and gammadelta T cell receptor (TCR). Mice lacking Id3 were previously shown to have subtle defects in positive and negative selection of TCRalphabeta+ T lymphocytes. More recently, Id3(-/-) mice on a C57BL/6 background were shown to have a dramatic expansion of gammadelta T cells.Here we report that mice lacking Id3 have reduced thymocyte numbers but increased production of gammadelta T cells that express a Vgamma1.1+Vdelta6.3+ receptor with restricted junctional diversity. These Vgamma1.1+Vdelta6.3+ T cells have multiple characteristics associated with "innate" lymphocytes such as natural killer T (NKT) cells including an activated phenotype, expression of the transcription factor PLZF, and rapid production of IFNg and interleukin-4. Moreover, like other "innate" lymphocyte populations, development of Id3(-/-) Vgamma1.1+Vdelta6.3+ T cells requires the signaling adapter protein SAP.Our data provide novel insight into the requirements for development of Vgamma1.1+Vdelta6.3+ T cells and indicate a role for Id3 in repressing the response of "innate" gammadelta T cells to SAP-mediated expansion or survival

Carbon Pricing in Climate Policy: Seven Reasons, Complementary Instruments, and Political Economy Considerations

Carbon pricing is a recurrent theme in debates on climate policy. Discarded at the 2009 COP in Copenhagen, it remained part of deliberations for a climate agreement in subsequent years. As there is still much misunderstanding about the many reasons to implement a global carbon price, ideological resistance against it prospers. Here, we present the main arguments for carbon pricing, to stimulate a fair and well-informed discussion about it. These include considerations that have received little attention so far. We stress that a main reason to use carbon pricing is environmental effectiveness at a relatively low cost, which in turn contributes to enhance social and political acceptability of climate policy. This includes the property that corrected prices stimulate rapid environmental innovations. These arguments are underappreciated in the public debate, where pricing is frequently downplayed and the erroneous view that innovation policies are sufficient is widespread. Carbon pricing and technology policies are, though, largely complementary and thus are both needed for effective climate policy. We also comment on the complementarity of other instruments to carbon pricing. We further discuss distributional consequences of carbon pricing and present suggestions on how to address these. Other political economy issues that receive attention are lobbying, co-benefits, international policy coordination, motivational crowding in/out, and long-term commitment. The overview ends with reflections on implementing a global carbon price, whether through a carbon tax or emissions trading. The discussion goes beyond traditional arguments from environmental economics by including relevant insights from energy research and innovation studies as well

Understanding How University Students Use Perceptions of Consent, Wantedness, and Pleasure in Labeling Rape.

While the lack of consent is the only determining factor in considering whether a situation is rape or not, there is sufficient evidence that participants conflate wantedness with consent and pleasurableness with wantedness. Understanding how people appraise sexual scenarios may form the basis to develop appropriate educational packages. We conducted two large-scale qualitative studies in two UK universities in which participants read vignettes describing sexual encounters that were consensual or not, wanted or unwanted and pleasurable or not pleasurable. Participants provided free-text responses as to whether they perceived the scenarios to be rape or not and why they made these judgments. The second study replicated the results of the first and included a condition where participants imagined themselves as either the subject or initiator of the sexual encounter. The results indicate that a significant portion of our participants held attitudes reflecting rape myths and tended to blame the victim. Participants used distancing language when imagining themselves in the initiator condition. Participants indicated that they felt there were degrees of how much a scenario reflected rape rather than it simply being a dichotomy (rape or not). Such results indicate a lack of understanding of consent and rape and highlight avenues of potential educational materials for schools, universities or jurors

Initial response of young people with thyrotoxicosis to block and replace or dose titration thionamide

\ua9 2022 The authors Published by Bioscientifica Ltd.Objective: Patients with thyrotoxicosis are treated with anti-thyroid drug (ATD) using block and replace (BR) or a smaller, titrated dose of ATD (dose titration, DT). Design: A multi-centre, phase III, open-label trial of newly diagnosed paediatric thyrotoxicosis patients randomised to BR/DT. We compared the biochemical response to BR/DT in the first 6 months of therapy. Methods: Patients commenced 0.75 mg/kg carbimazole (CBZ) daily with randomisation to BR/DT. We examined baseline patient characteristics, CBZ dose, time to serum thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH)/free thyroxine (FT4) normalisation and BMI Z-score change. Results: There were 80 patients (baseline) and 78 patients (61 female) at 6 months. Mean CBZ dose was 0.9 mg/kg/day (BR) and 0.5 mg/kg/day (DT). There was no difference in time to non-suppressed TSH concentration; 16 of 39 patients (BR) and 11 of 39 (DT) had suppressed TSH at 6 months. Patients with suppressed TSH had higher mean baseline FT4 levels (72.7 vs 51.7 pmol/L; 95% CI for difference 1.73, 31.7; P = 0.029). Time to normalise FT4 levels was reduced in DT (log-rank test, P = 0.049) with 50% attaining normal FT4 at 28 days (95% CI 25, 32) vs 35 days in BR (95% CI 28, 58). Mean BMI Z-score increased from 0.10 to 0.81 at 6 months (95% CI for difference 0.57, 0.86; P < 0.001) and was greatest in patients with higher baseline FT4 concentrations. Conclusions: DT-treated patients normalised FT4 concentrations more quickly than BR. Overall, 94% of patients have normal FT4 levels after 6 months, but 33% still have TSH suppression. Excessive weight gain occurs with both BR and DT therapy

Integrated Ecosystem Assessment: Lake Ontario Water Management

BACKGROUND: Ecosystem management requires organizing, synthesizing, and projecting information at a large scale while simultaneously addressing public interests, dynamic ecological properties, and a continuum of physicochemical conditions. We compared the impacts of seven water level management plans for Lake Ontario on a set of environmental attributes of public relevance. METHODOLOGY AND FINDINGS: Our assessment method was developed with a set of established impact assessment tools (checklists, classifications, matrices, simulations, representative taxa, and performance relations) and the concept of archetypal geomorphic shoreline classes. We considered each environmental attribute and shoreline class in its typical and essential form and predicted how water level change would interact with defining properties. The analysis indicated that about half the shoreline of Lake Ontario is potentially sensitive to water level change with a small portion being highly sensitive. The current water management plan may be best for maintaining the environmental resources. In contrast, a natural water regime plan designed for greatest environmental benefits most often had adverse impacts, impacted most shoreline classes, and the largest portion of the lake coast. Plans that balanced multiple objectives and avoided hydrologic extremes were found to be similar relative to the environment, low on adverse impacts, and had many minor impacts across many shoreline classes. SIGNIFICANCE: The Lake Ontario ecosystem assessment provided information that can inform decisions about water management and the environment. No approach and set of methods will perfectly and unarguably accomplish integrated ecosystem assessment. For managing water levels in Lake Ontario, we found that there are no uniformly good and bad options for environmental conservation. The scientific challenge was selecting a set of tools and practices to present broad, relevant, unbiased, and accessible information to guide decision-making on a set of management options

Jet energy measurement with the ATLAS detector in proton-proton collisions at root s=7 TeV

The jet energy scale and its systematic uncertainty are determined for jets measured with the ATLAS detector at the LHC in proton-proton collision data at a centre-of-mass energy of √s = 7TeV corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 38 pb-1. Jets are reconstructed with the anti-kt algorithm with distance parameters R=0. 4 or R=0. 6. Jet energy and angle corrections are determined from Monte Carlo simulations to calibrate jets with transverse momenta pT≥20 GeV and pseudorapidities {pipe}η{pipe}<4. 5. The jet energy systematic uncertainty is estimated using the single isolated hadron response measured in situ and in test-beams, exploiting the transverse momentum balance between central and forward jets in events with dijet topologies and studying systematic variations in Monte Carlo simulations. The jet energy uncertainty is less than 2. 5 % in the central calorimeter region ({pipe}η{pipe}<0. 8) for jets with 60≤pT<800 GeV, and is maximally 14 % for pT<30 GeV in the most forward region 3. 2≤{pipe}η{pipe}<4. 5. The jet energy is validated for jet transverse momenta up to 1 TeV to the level of a few percent using several in situ techniques by comparing a well-known reference such as the recoiling photon pT, the sum of the transverse momenta of tracks associated to the jet, or a system of low-pT jets recoiling against a high-pT jet. More sophisticated jet calibration schemes are presented based on calorimeter cell energy density weighting or hadronic properties of jets, aiming for an improved jet energy resolution and a reduced flavour dependence of the jet response. The systematic uncertainty of the jet energy determined from a combination of in situ techniques is consistent with the one derived from single hadron response measurements over a wide kinematic range. The nominal corrections and uncertainties are derived for isolated jets in an inclusive sample of high-pT jets. Special cases such as event topologies with close-by jets, or selections of samples with an enhanced content of jets originating from light quarks, heavy quarks or gluons are also discussed and the corresponding uncertainties are determined. © 2013 CERN for the benefit of the ATLAS collaboration