Dynamic landscapes and human dispersal patterns : tectonics, coastlines, and the reconstruction of human habitats

Studies of the impact of physical environment on human evolution usually focus on climate as the main external forcing agent of evolutionary and cultural change. In this paper we focus on changes in the physical character of the landscape driven by geophysical processes as an equally potent factor. Most of the landscapes where finds of early human fossils and artefacts are concentrated are ones that have been subjected to high levels of geological instability, either because of especially active tectonic processes associated with faulting and volcanic activity or because of proximity to coastlines subject to dramatic changes of geographical position and physical character by changes of relative sea level. These processes can have both beneficial effects, creating ecologically attractive conditions for human settlement, and deleterious or disruptive ones, creating barriers to movement, disruption of ecological conditions, or hazards to survival. Both positive and negative factors can have powerful selective effects on human behaviour and patterns of settlement and dispersal. We consider both these aspects of the interaction, develop a framework for the reconstruction and comparison of landscapes and landscape change at a variety of scales, and illustrate this with selected examples drawn from Africa and Arabia

International Trade and Investment Sanctions

The purpose of this paper is to clarify the theory of international economic sanctions and to provide estimates of the short-run economic impact on South Africa of externally imposed reductions of the imports and capital flows into that country. A macroeconomic picture of South Africa's "dependence" is drawn, and the economy's vulnerability in the short run is seen to be in its capacity to import, not in exports or capital flows. Trade and capital sanctions most clearly damage South Afnca's growth potential; the short-run impact is harder to quantify. A static linear programming model of the South African economy is constructed in an attempt at this quantification. This model estimates that small sanctions would have small impact—i.e., if imports were reduced by less than one-fourth, GDP would be cut by only about one half as large a percentage as imports. Larger import reductions cause greater damage. If imports were to be cut in half, not only would GDP be seriously reduced but massive unemployment and relocation of white labor would occur.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/68182/2/10.1177_002200277902300401.pd

MCMC implementation for Bayesian hidden semi-Markov models with illustrative applications

Copyright © Springer 2013. The final publication is available at Springer via http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11222-013-9399-zHidden Markov models (HMMs) are flexible, well established models useful in a diverse range of applications. However, one potential limitation of such models lies in their inability to explicitly structure the holding times of each hidden state. Hidden semi-Markov models (HSMMs) are more useful in the latter respect as they incorporate additional temporal structure by explicit modelling of the holding times. However, HSMMs have generally received less attention in the literature, mainly due to their intensive computational requirements. Here a Bayesian implementation of HSMMs is presented. Recursive algorithms are proposed in conjunction with Metropolis-Hastings in such a way as to avoid sampling from the distribution of the hidden state sequence in the MCMC sampler. This provides a computationally tractable estimation framework for HSMMs avoiding the limitations associated with the conventional EM algorithm regarding model flexibility. Performance of the proposed implementation is demonstrated through simulation experiments as well as an illustrative application relating to recurrent failures in a network of underground water pipes where random effects are also included into the HSMM to allow for pipe heterogeneity

Measurement of the partial widths of the Z into up- and down-type quarks

Using the entire OPAL LEP1 on-peak Z hadronic decay sample, Z -> qbarq gamma decays were selected by tagging hadronic final states with isolated photon candidates in the electromagnetic calorimeter. Combining the measured rates of Z -> qbarq gamma decays with the total rate of hadronic Z decays permits the simultaneous determination of the widths of the Z into up- and down-type quarks. The values obtained, with total errors, were Gamma u = 300 ^{+19}_{-18} MeV and Gamma d = 381 ^{+12}_{-12} MeV. The results are in good agreement with the Standard Model expectation.Comment: 22 pages, 5 figures, Submitted to Phys. Letts.

Search for R-Parity Violating Decays of Scalar Fermions at LEP

A search for pair-produced scalar fermions under the assumption that R-parity is not conserved has been performed using data collected with the OPAL detector at LEP. The data samples analysed correspond to an integrated luminosity of about 610 pb-1 collected at centre-of-mass energies of sqrt(s) 189-209 GeV. An important consequence of R-parity violation is that the lightest supersymmetric particle is expected to be unstable. Searches of R-parity violating decays of charged sleptons, sneutrinos and squarks have been performed under the assumptions that the lightest supersymmetric particle decays promptly and that only one of the R-parity violating couplings is dominant for each of the decay modes considered. Such processes would yield final states consisting of leptons, jets, or both with or without missing energy. No significant single-like excess of events has been observed with respect to the Standard Model expectations. Limits on the production cross- section of scalar fermions in R-parity violating scenarios are obtained. Constraints on the supersymmetric particle masses are also presented in an R-parity violating framework analogous to the Constrained Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model.Comment: 51 pages, 24 figures, Submitted to Eur. Phys. J.

Measurement of the Strong Coupling alpha s from Four-Jet Observables in e+e- Annihilation

Data from e+e- annihilation into hadrons at centre-of-mass energies between 91 GeV and 209 GeV collected with the OPAL detector at LEP, are used to study the four-jet rate as a function of the Durham algorithm resolution parameter ycut. The four-jet rate is compared to next-to-leading order calculations that include the resummation of large logarithms. The strong coupling measured from the four-jet rate is alphas(Mz0)= 0.1182+-0.0003(stat.)+-0.0015(exp.)+-0.0011(had.)+-0.0012(scale)+-0.0013(mass) in agreement with the world average. Next-to-leading order fits to the D-parameter and thrust minor event-shape observables are also performed for the first time. We find consistent results, but with significantly larger theoretical uncertainties.Comment: 25 pages, 15 figures, Submitted to Euro. Phys. J.