Looking ahead: forecasting and planning for the longer-range future, April 1, 2, and 3, 2005

This repository item contains a single issue of the Pardee Conference Series, a publication series that began publishing in 2006 by the Boston University Frederick S. Pardee Center for the Study of the Longer-Range Future. This was the Center's spring Conference that took place during April 1, 2, and 3, 2005.The conference allowed for many highly esteemed scholars and professionals from a broad range of fields to come together to discuss strategies designed for the 21st century and beyond. The speakers and discussants covered a broad range of subjects including: long-term policy analysis, forecasting for business and investment, the National Intelligence Council Global Trends 2020 report, Europe’s transition from the Marshal plan to the EU, forecasting global transitions, foreign policy planning, and forecasting for defense

Liberal Warfare: A Crusade Twice Removed

Since the 1990s, liberal warfare has attracted a good deal of debate and commentary, virtually all of which has been framed in the secular language of rights, sovereignty, power, and legitimacy. This article, in contrast, makes religion its central analytic category. Treating liberalism as a political religion, it argues that, insofar as liberal wars are fought primarily to uphold “universal” Western values, their motivation has something in common with medieval crusades. But, because that universalist ideal is vitiated by the self-interest of states, liberal wars in fact bear closer resemblance to anachronistic attempts to revive the crusading ideal in the late Middle Ages. Thus, they represent a distant, secularized echo of a pale imitation of the Crusades—or “a crusade twice removed.

The underlying causes of military outsourcing in the USA and UK: bridging the persistent gap between ends, ways and means since the beginning of the Cold War

This article reappraises the two most-studied country cases of military outsourcing: the USA and the UK. It argues that the contemporary wave of military contracting stretches back to the beginning of the cold war and not only to the demobilisation of armies in the 1990s or the neoliberal reforms introduced since the 1980s. It traces the political, technological and ideational developments that laid the groundwork for these reforms and practices since the early cold war and account for its endurance today. Importantly, it argues that a persistent gap between strategic objectives and resources, i.e. the challenge to reconcile ends and means, is an underlying driver of military contracting in both countries. Contemporary contracting is thus most closely tied to military support functions in support of wider foreign and defence political objectives. Security services in either state may not have been outsourced so swiftly, if at all, without decades of experience in outsourcing military logistics functions and the resultant vehicles, processes and familiarities with public-private partnerships. The article thus provides a wider and deeper understanding of the drivers of contractualisation, thereby improving our understanding of both its historical trajectory and the determinants of its present and potential futures

Energy and Climate Implications for Agricultural Nutrient Use Efficiency

Energy and climate change are beginning to dominate the global political agenda and will drive policy formation that will shape the future of agriculture. Energy issues threaten national security and economic stability, as well as access to low-cost nutrient inputs for agriculture. Climate change has the potential to cause serious disruption to agricultural productivity. Paradoxically, nutrient use in agriculture to increase crop yields has the potential to negatively impact climate. This chapter will discuss recent and future energy and climate trends, the relationships between agricultural nutrient use efficiency and biofuels, and how global land limitations will shape agriculture in the future. Comparative gross energy yield and nitrogen use efficiency for ethanol production from crop residue, switchgrass, grain sorghum, sweet sorghum, and corn grain is presented, showing small differences in nitrogen use efficiency, but large differences in gross energy yields. In addition to considering the need to increase crop productivity to meet the demands of a growing population and bioenergy, agricultural nutrient use efficiency must be reconsidered with respect to the important energy and climate challenges shaping agriculture today

’Pentagon Ju-Jitsu' - reshaping the field of propaganda

This article presents qualitative research examining adaptation to global asymmetric threats and a modern media environment of US Government propaganda systems by planners following 9-11, which proceeded largely unhindered by public debate. It draws on interviews with US elite sources including foreign policy, defense and intelligence personnel and documentary sources to explore how dissent was contained. A ‘merging’ of Psychological Operations and Public Affairs has been identified as a point of concern elsewhere and is argued to have facilitated the extension of US hegemony. It will present an account of the struggles between 2005 and 2009 when planners sought to alter ‘foreign’ and ‘domestic’ audience targeting norms that emerged in an old-media system of sovereign states with more stable populations. It focuses on a key example of transformation: the pressing through of internet policy changes for military Psychological Operations and Public Affairs, against resistance. Policies were brought in to coordinate and overcome discordance in foreign-domestic messaging by Psychological Operations and Information Operations personnel. Viewed as operational necessity for Psychological Operations, these resulted in a ‘terf war’ with Public Affairs who constructed a defense using discourses of legitimacy and credibility with domestic audiences. This article will show how concerns raised by Public Affairs were met by the reduction of their planning role, until a culture change and new orthodoxy emerged. Challenges raised by evolving media demand a reappraisal of propaganda governance and governments must allow greater transparency for public debate, legal judgement and independent academic enquiry to occur

The private military industry and neoliberal imperialism: Mapping the terrain

Despite the international reach, and increasing global importance, of the free market provision of military and security services—which we label the Private Security Industry (PSI)—management and organization studies has yet to pay significant attention to this industry. Taking up Grey’s (2009) call for scholarship at the boundaries between security studies and organization studies and building on Banerjee’s (2008) treatment of the PSI as a key element in necrocapitalism, in this article we aim to trace the long history of the PSI and argue that it has re-emerged over the last two decades against, and as a result of, a very specific politico-economic backdrop. We then suggest that the PSI operates as a mechanism for neoliberal imperialism; demonstrate its substitution for and supplementing of the state; and count some of the costs of this privatization of war. Finally, we take seriously Hughes’s (2007) thesis of the growth of a new security-industrial complex, and of the intersecting elites who benefit from this phenomenon

Official Discrepancies: Kosovo Independence and Western European Rhetoric

This article examines approaches and official discrepancies characterising Western European rhetoric with regard to the Kosovo status question. Since the early 1980s, Kosovo has been increasingly present in European debates, culminating with the 1999 international intervention in the region and subsequent talks about its final status. Although the Kosovo Albanians proclaimed independence in February 2008 and the majority of EU Member States decided to recognise Kosovo as an independent state, Western European rhetoric has been rather divided. This article shows that in addition to five EU members who have decided not to recognise Kosovo from the very beginning, and thus are powerful enough to affect its further progress, both locally and internationally, some of the recognisers, although having abandoned the policy of ‘standards before status’, have also struggled to develop full support for the province – a discrepancy that surely questions the overall Western support for Kosovo’s independence

The deep, historical-roots of Cuban anti-imperialism

Colonialism, imperialism and anti-imperialism have been decisive in shaping Cuban political identity for 150 years. US determination to control Cuba, consistent with the Monroe Doctrine, had a strong economic rationale even before Spain was defeated in the War of Independence in 1898. Debate raged between Cubans who aspired to true independence and an annexationalist minority, who favoured union with the US. The Platt Amendment imposed on Cuba by the US in 1903 ‘reduced the independence and sovereignty of the Cuban republic to a myth’. Between then and the Revolution of 1959 Cuba was effectively first a protectorate and then neo-colony of the US, which dominated the Cuban economy, politics and foreign policy. Tackling the terrible socioeconomic and political effects of Cuba’s subjugation under the Spanish empire and then US imperialism necessitated a radical transformation of the Cuban economy, political institutions and power structures. The transition to socialism inevitably meant confronting US imperialism – and vice versa. Since 1959, US imperialism, with its powerful allies in the right-wing exile community based in Miami, have relentlessly tried to destroy the Revolution and Cuban socialism. The issue of imperialism remains key today, in the post-Fidel, President Trump era