Designing a decision support system for tasting panels

Tasting Panels are used in Sensory Analysis in order to evaluate products according to the way they are perceived by human senses. In this context, the main job of a professional taster is to assess the sensorial characteristics of products, for example in the food industry. Evaluating the individual performance of the tasters is thus essential, so the results produced are as reliable as possible. The tasting process usually generates a large amount of data that is used in decisions about the products and can also be used to evaluate the tasters. The main objective of this work is to specify and conceptualize a Decision Support System (DSS) to help managing and handling the referred data. This is considered a valuable contribution, since there are no known technological decision tools to support the tasting process

The evolution of the Lyman-alpha forest effective optical depth following HeII reionisation

Three independent observational studies have now detected a narrow (\Delta z ~ 0.5) dip centred at z=3.2 in the otherwise smooth redshift evolution of the Lya forest effective optical depth. This feature has previously been interpreted as an indirect signature of rapid photo-heating in the IGM during the epoch of HeII reionisation. We examine this interpretation using a semi-analytic model of inhomogeneous HeII reionisation and high resolution hydrodynamical simulations of the Lya forest. We instead find that a rapid (\Delta z ~ 0.2) boost to the IGM temperature (\Delta T ~ 10^4 K) beginning at z=3.4 produces a well understood and generic evolution in the Lya effective optical depth, where a sudden reduction in the opacity is followed by a gradual, monotonic recovery driven largely by adiabatic cooling in the low density IGM. This behaviour is inconsistent with the narrow feature in the observational data. If photo-heating during HeII reionisation is instead extended over several redshift units, as recent theoretical studies suggest, then the Lya opacity will evolve smoothly with redshift. We conclude that the sharp dip observed in the Lya forest effective optical depth is instead most likely due to a narrow peak in the hydrogen photo-ionisation rate around z=3.2, and suggest that it may arise from the modulation of either reprocessed radiation during HeII reionisation, or the opacity of Lyman limit systems.Comment: 16 pages, 7 figures, accepted to MNRAS with minor revision

How does ethical leadership trickle down? Test of an integrative dual-process model

Although the trickle-down effect of ethical leadership has been documented in the literature, its underlying mechanism still remains largely unclear. To address this gap, we develop a cross-level dual-process model to explain how the effect occurs. Drawing on social learning theory, we hypothesize that the ethical leadership of high-level managers could cascade to middle-level supervisors via its impact on middle-level supervisors’ two ethical expectations. Using a sample of 69 middle-level supervisors and 381 subordinates across 69 sub-branches from a large banking firm in China, we found that middle-level supervisors’ ethical efficacy expectation and unethical behavior–punishment expectation (as one form of ethical outcome expectations) accounted for the trickle-down effect. The explanatory role of middle-level supervisors’ ethical behavior–reward expectation (as the other form of ethical outcome expectations), however, was not supported. The theoretical and practical implications are discussed

Forecasting drug utilization and expenditure in a metropolitan health region

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>New pharmacological therapies are challenging the healthcare systems, and there is an increasing need to assess their therapeutic value in relation to existing alternatives as well as their potential budget impact. Consequently, new models to introduce drugs in healthcare are urgently needed. In the metropolitan health region of Stockholm, Sweden, a model has been developed including early warning (horizon scanning), forecasting of drug utilization and expenditure, critical drug evaluation as well as structured programs for the introduction and follow-up of new drugs. The aim of this paper is to present the forecasting model and the predicted growth in all therapeutic areas in 2010 and 2011.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Linear regression analysis was applied to aggregate sales data on hospital sales and dispensed drugs in ambulatory care, including both reimbursed expenditure and patient co-payment. The linear regression was applied on each pharmacological group based on four observations 2006-2009, and the crude predictions estimated for the coming two years 2010-2011. The crude predictions were then adjusted for factors likely to increase or decrease future utilization and expenditure, such as patent expiries, new drugs to be launched or new guidelines from national bodies or the regional Drug and Therapeutics Committee. The assessment included a close collaboration with clinical, clinical pharmacological and pharmaceutical experts from the regional Drug and Therapeutics Committee.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The annual increase in total expenditure for prescription and hospital drugs was predicted to be 2.0% in 2010 and 4.0% in 2011. Expenditures will increase in most therapeutic areas, but most predominantly for antineoplastic and immune modulating agents as well as drugs for the nervous system, infectious diseases, and blood and blood-forming organs.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The utilisation and expenditure of drugs is difficult to forecast due to uncertainties about the rate of adoption of new medicines and various ongoing healthcare reforms and activities to improve the quality and efficiency of prescribing. Nevertheless, we believe our model will be valuable as an early warning system to start developing guidance for new drugs including systems to monitor their effectiveness, safety and cost-effectiveness in clinical practice.</p

An Imperfect Dopaminergic Error Signal Can Drive Temporal-Difference Learning

An open problem in the field of computational neuroscience is how to link synaptic plasticity to system-level learning. A promising framework in this context is temporal-difference (TD) learning. Experimental evidence that supports the hypothesis that the mammalian brain performs temporal-difference learning includes the resemblance of the phasic activity of the midbrain dopaminergic neurons to the TD error and the discovery that cortico-striatal synaptic plasticity is modulated by dopamine. However, as the phasic dopaminergic signal does not reproduce all the properties of the theoretical TD error, it is unclear whether it is capable of driving behavior adaptation in complex tasks. Here, we present a spiking temporal-difference learning model based on the actor-critic architecture. The model dynamically generates a dopaminergic signal with realistic firing rates and exploits this signal to modulate the plasticity of synapses as a third factor. The predictions of our proposed plasticity dynamics are in good agreement with experimental results with respect to dopamine, pre- and post-synaptic activity. An analytical mapping from the parameters of our proposed plasticity dynamics to those of the classical discrete-time TD algorithm reveals that the biological constraints of the dopaminergic signal entail a modified TD algorithm with self-adapting learning parameters and an adapting offset. We show that the neuronal network is able to learn a task with sparse positive rewards as fast as the corresponding classical discrete-time TD algorithm. However, the performance of the neuronal network is impaired with respect to the traditional algorithm on a task with both positive and negative rewards and breaks down entirely on a task with purely negative rewards. Our model demonstrates that the asymmetry of a realistic dopaminergic signal enables TD learning when learning is driven by positive rewards but not when driven by negative rewards

Relative contributions of crust and mantle to generation of Campanian high-K calc-alkaline I-type granitoids in a subduction setting, with special reference to the Harsit Pluton, Eastern Turkey

We present elemental and Sr-Nd-Pb isotopic data for the magmatic suite (similar to 79 Ma) of the Harsit pluton, from the Eastern Pontides (NE Turkey), with the aim of determining its magma source and geodynamic evolution. The pluton comprises granite, granodiorite, tonalite and minor diorite (SiO(2) = 59.43-76.95 wt%), with only minor gabbroic diorite mafic microgranular enclaves in composition (SiO(2) = 54.95-56.32 wt%), and exhibits low Mg# (&lt;46). All samples show a high-K calc-alkaline differentiation trend and I-type features. The chondrite-normalized REE patterns are fractionated [(La/Yb)(n) = 2.40-12.44] and display weak Eu anomalies (Eu/Eu* = 0.30-0.76). The rocks are characterized by enrichment of LILE and depletion of HFSE. The Harsit host rocks have weak concave-upward REE patterns, suggesting that amphibole and garnet played a significant role in their generation during magma segregation. The host rocks and their enclaves are isotopically indistinguishable. Sr-Nd isotopic data for all of the samples display I(Sr) = 0.70676-0.70708, epsilon(Nd)(79 Ma) = -4.4 to -3.3, with T(DM) = 1.09-1.36 Ga. The lead isotopic ratios are ((206)Pb/(204)pb) = 18.79-18.87, ((207)Pb/(204)Pb) = 15.59-15.61 and ((208)Pb/(204)Pb) = 38.71-38.83. These geochemical data rule out pure crustal-derived magma genesis in a post-collision extensional stage and suggest mixed-origin magma generation in a subduction setting. The melting that generated these high-K granitoidic rocks may have resulted from the upper Cretaceous subduction of the Izmir-Ankara-Erzincan oceanic slab beneath the Eurasian block in the region. The back-arc extensional events would have caused melting of the enriched subcontinental lithospheric mantle and formed mafic magma. The underplating of the lower crust by mafic magmas would have played a significant role in the generation of high-K magma. Thus, a thermal anomaly induced by underplated basic magma into a hot crust would have caused partial melting in the lower part of the crust. In this scenario, the lithospheric mantle-derived basaltic melt first mixed with granitic magma of crustal origin at depth. Then, the melts, which subsequently underwent a fractional crystallization and crustal assimilation processes, could ascend to shallower crustal levels to generate a variety of rock types ranging from diorite to granite. Sr-Nd isotope modeling shows that the generation of these magmas involved similar to 65-75% of the lower crustal-derived melt and similar to 25-35% of subcontinental lithospheric mantle. Further, geochemical data and the Ar-Ar plateau age on hornblende, combined with regional studies, imply that the Harsit pluton formed in a subduction setting and that the back-arc extensional period started by least similar to 79 Ma in the Eastern Pontides.Geochemistry &amp; GeophysicsMineralogySCI(E)33ARTICLE4467-48716