Sudden change in long-term ocean climate fluctuations corresponds with ecosystem alterations and reduced recruitment in Norwegian spring-spawning herring (Clupea harengus, Clupeidae)

Fish stocks vary in abundance. The causes behind the fluctuations may be difficult to determine, especially ones caused by natural fluctuations, but long‐term data series may provide indications of the mechanisms. Assessments show that the recruitment to the Norwegian spring‐spawning herring (Clupea harengus, Clupeidae) has remained low since 2004, a year which produced the last really rich year‐class. Long time‐series of estimated recruitment and mean winter temperature in the ocean showed a significant positive correlation for the period 1921–2004. Here, we show that this positive correlation did not continue from 2005 onwards as the winter temperature increased to high levels while herring recruitment decreased and has remained low. The density of zooplankton in the drift route of the herring larvae dropped significantly after 2004, and their centre of gravity shifted northwards. There may currently be heavy predation on the larvae by Atlanic mackerel (Scomber scombrus, Scombridae), and top‐down regulation is suggested to hamper successful recruitment. Our analysis indicates that the presence of food and overlap with high food concentrations are likely important regulators of survival in herring larvae. The findings may be important for future management and planning of fisheries of this stock because recruitment failure may continue if temperature remains high and food abundance remains low.publishedVersio

Modelling the population size and dynamics of the British grey seal

Funding: part-funded by the UK Natural Environment Research Council to SMRU (Grant no. SMRU1001).1. Grey seals (Halichoerus grypus) were the first mammals to be protected by an Act of Parliament in the UK and are currently protected under UK, Scottish, and EU conservation legislation. Reporting requirements under each of these statutes requires accurate and timely population estimates. Monitoring is principally conducted by aerial surveys of the breeding colonies; these are used to produce estimates of annual pup production. Translating these data to estimates of adult population size requires information about demographic parameters such as fecundity and sex ratio. 2. An age‐structured population dynamics model is presented, which includes density dependence in pup survival, with separate carrying capacities in each of the four breeding regions considered (North Sea, Inner Hebrides, Outer Hebrides, and Orkney). This model is embedded within a Bayesian state–space modelling framework, allowing the population model to be linked to available data and the use of informative prior distributions on demographic parameters. A computer‐intensive fitting algorithm is presented based on particle filtering methods. 3. The model is fitted to region‐level pup production estimates from 1984 to 2010 and an independent estimate of adult population size, derived from aerial surveys of hauled‐out seals in 2008. The fitted model is used to estimate total population size from 1984 to 2010. 4. The population in the North Sea region has increased at a near‐constant rate; growth in the other three regions began to slow in the mid‐1990s and these populations appear to have reached carrying capacity. The total population size of seals aged 1 year or older in 2010 was estimated to be 116 100 (95% CI 98 400–138 600), an increase of <1% on the previous year. 5. The modelling and fitting methods are widely applicable to other wildlife populations where diverse sources of information are available and inference is required for the underlying population dynamics.PostprintPeer reviewe

Growth and mortality estimates of Sardinella brasiliensis in the southeastern Brazilian Bight

Length frequency analisys were applied for sardine data collected from commercial catches throughout the southeastern Brazilian coast in 1977-1987. Age/length keys were obtained by otolith ring countings and utilized to transform length into age composition. Growth parameters were estimated by the von Bertalanffy growth equation using age and length data for each year and for all the period of investigation. The mean growth parameters for the entire period were estimated as L&#8734; = 271 mm and K= 0.59 year-1. Instantaneous total mortality (Z) coefficients per year were estimated using catch curves and methods based on the mean length of the fish caught. Total mortality rate for the entire period was obtained through the average of the annual values. Natural mortality (M) was estimated using the Paul/s empirical equation (1980a), and fishing mortality (F) by the difference between total and natural mortality values.The results were Z = 3.6 year-1; M = 0.96 year-1; and F= 2.6 year-1.Estudo sobre o crescimento e a mortalidade de Sardinella brasiliensis, da costa sudeste do Brasil, foi realizado para o período 1977 a 1987. As análises foram efetuadas a partir de dados existentes sobre distribuições de freqüência de comprimento de amostras da captura comercial. Chaves idade/comprimento, construidas a partir de leitura de anéis de crescimento em otólitos, dentro do Programa Integrado de Estudos Biológicos sobre a Sardinha - PIEBS, foram utilizadas para transformar as distribuiçes de comprimento em idade. Os parâmetros de crescimento da equação de von Bertalanffy foram estimados, anualmente e para o período como um todo, a partir de métodos que utilizam dados de idade e comprimento. Os parâmetros médios encontrados para o período foram: L&#8734; = 271 mm e K= 0,59 ano-1. Os coeficientes instantâneos de mortalidade total (Z) anuais foram calculados pelas curvas de captura e por métodos baseados no comprimento médio dos indivíduos nas capturas. A mortalidade total para todo o período foi obtida pela média dos valores anuais. O coeficiente instantâneo de mortalidade natural (M) foi estimado pela equação empírica de Pauly (1980a), usando um fator de correção de 0,8 para clupeoides, e o coeficiente instantâneo de mortalidade por pesca (F), pela diferença entre a mortalidade total e a natural. Os valores encontrados foram: Z= 3,6 ano-1, M = 0,96 ano-1 e F= 2,6 ano-1

Saturation Behavior: a general relationship described by a simple second-order differential equation

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The numerous natural phenomena that exhibit saturation behavior, <it>e.g</it>., ligand binding and enzyme kinetics, have been approached, to date, via empirical and particular analyses. This paper presents a mechanism-free, and assumption-free, second-order differential equation, designed only to describe a typical relationship between the variables governing these phenomena. It develops a mathematical model for this relation, based solely on the analysis of the typical experimental data plot and its saturation characteristics. Its utility complements the traditional empirical approaches.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>For the general saturation curve, described in terms of its independent (<it>x</it>) and dependent (<it>y</it>) variables, a second-order differential equation is obtained that applies to any saturation phenomena. It shows that the driving factor for the basic saturation behavior is the probability of the interactive site being free, which is described quantitatively. Solving the equation relates the variables in terms of the two empirical constants common to all these phenomena, the initial slope of the data plot and the limiting value at saturation. A first-order differential equation for the slope emerged that led to the concept of the effective binding rate at the active site and its dependence on the calculable probability the interactive site is free. These results are illustrated using specific cases, including ligand binding and enzyme kinetics. This leads to a revised understanding of how to interpret the empirical constants, in terms of the variables pertinent to the phenomenon under study.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The second-order differential equation revealed the basic underlying relations that describe these saturation phenomena, and the basic mathematical properties of the standard experimental data plot. It was shown how to integrate this differential equation, and define the common basic properties of these phenomena. The results regarding the importance of the slope and the new perspectives on the empirical constants governing the behavior of these phenomena led to an alternative perspective on saturation behavior kinetics. Their essential commonality was revealed by this analysis, based on the second-order differential equation.</p

Making the most of survey data: Incorporating age uncertainty when fitting growth parameters

Individual growth is an important parameter and is linked to a number of other biological processes. It is commonly modeled using the von Bertalanffy growth function (VBGF), which is regularly fitted to age data where the ages of the animals are not known exactly but are binned into yearly age groups, such as fish survey data. Current methods of fitting the VBGF to these data treat all the binned ages as the actual ages. We present a new VBGF model that combines data from multiple surveys and allows the actual age of an animal to be inferred. By fitting to survey data for Atlantic herring (Clupea harengus) and Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua), we compare our model with two other ways of combining data from multiple surveys but where the ages are as reported in the survey data. We use the fitted parameters as inputs into a yield-per-recruit model to see what would happen to advice given to management. We found that each of the ways of combining the data leads to different parameter estimates for the VBGF and advice for policymakers. Our model fitted to the data better than either of the other models and also reduced the uncertainty in the parameter estimates and models used to inform management. Our model is a robust way of fitting the VBGF and can be used to combine data from multiple sources. The model is general enough to fit other growth curves for any taxon when the age of individuals is binned into groups

Environmental changes define ecological limits to species richness and reveal the mode of macroevolutionary competition

© 2016 The Authors. Ecology Letters published by CNRS and John Wiley & Sons Ltd. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. [4.0 License] The attached file is the published version of the articl

Demographic Diversity and Sustainable Fisheries

Fish species are diverse. For example, some exhibit early maturation while others delay maturation, some adopt semelparous reproductive strategies while others are iteroparous, and some are long-lived and others short-lived. The diversity is likely to have profound effects on fish population dynamics, which in turn has implications for fisheries management. In this study, a simple density-dependent stage-structured population model was used to investigate the effect of life history traits on sustainable yield, population resilience, and the coefficient of variation (CV) of the adult abundance. The study showed that semelparous fish can produce very high sustainable yields, near or above 50% of the carrying capacity, whereas long-lived iteroparous fish can produce very low sustainable yields, which are often much less than 10% of the carrying capacity. The difference is not because of different levels of sustainable fishing mortality rate, but because of difference in the sensitivity of the equilibrium abundance to fishing mortality. On the other hand, the resilience of fish stocks increases from delayed maturation to early maturation strategies but remains almost unchanged from semelparous to long-lived iteroparous. The CV of the adult abundance increases with increased fishing mortality, not because more individuals are recruited into the adult stage (as previous speculated), but because the mean abundance is more sensitive to fishing mortality than its standard deviation. The magnitudes of these effects vary depending on the life history strategies of the fish species involved. It is evident that any past high yield of long-lived iteroparous fish is a transient yield level, and future commercial fisheries should focus more on fish that are short-lived (including semelparous species) with high compensatory capacity

Population regulation in lake whitefish, Coregonus clupeaformis (Mitchill)

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/73745/1/j.1095-8649.1981.tb03822.x.pd