Efeitos de mudanças regulatórias no microcrédito no desempenho nanceiro e social de cooperativas de crédito brasileiras

This study investigates whether the performance of credit unions that offer microcredit in Brazil was affected by the advent of Crescer – the National Microcredit Program. This research fills a gap in the literature because few papers investigate credit unions that work with microcredit and also the effects of governmental interventions related to microcredit operations. Studies of this type may help evaluate the impact of governmental interventions on the performance of the institutions that are directly or indirectly affected. Our results add to the debate about microcredit and about the inclusion of credit unions in this market. In particular, our evidence may influence the design of public policies and the strategies of microfinance institutions, which typically combine economic and social objectives. Based on the literature, we calculate fifteen indicators for each credit union, related to their financial and social performance. The inferences are based on the implementation of the difference in differences estimator using the advent of Crescer, in 2011, as the exogenous event of interest and including in the control group the credit unions that did not provide microcredit loans throughout the sample period. This research presents evidence that the volume of clients and microcredit operations performed by Brazilian credit unions was positively affected by regulatory changes that took place in 2011, consistently with the objectives of the governmental intervention. The evidence also suggests that the governmental intervention did not harm the financial sustainability of the credit unions. The main changes are: a substantial reduction of interest rates and transaction costs, the implementation of subsidies to participants in the program, and a push for public banks to enhance their supply of productive and oriented microcredit.Este estudo investiga se e como o desempenho nanceiro e social das cooperativas que ofertam microcrédito no Brasil foi afetado pelo advento do Crescer – Programa Nacional de Microcrédito. A pesquisa preenche lacuna na literatura da área, uma vez que há poucos estudos sobre cooperativas que trabalham com microcrédito e também sobre os efeitos de intervenções governamentais na área de microcrédito. Pesquisas como esta podem auxiliar na avaliação do impacto de intervenções governamentais sobre o desempenho das instituições direta ou indiretamente afetadas. Os resultados do estudo acrescentam novos elementos ao debate sobre o mercado do microcrédito e sobre a inserção das cooperativas de crédito nesse mercado. Em particular, as evidências aqui discutidas oferecem subsídio para o desenho de políticas públicas e para a de nição de estratégias de instituições de micro nanças, as quais tipicamente combinam objetivos econômicos e sociais. Com base na literatura, foram calculados 15 indicadores para cada cooperativa, relacionados ao seu desempenho nanceiro e social. As inferências baseiam-se na implementação do estimador de diferença em diferenças utilizando o advento do Crescer, em 2011, como o evento exógeno de interesse, e incluindo, no grupo de controle, as cooperativas de crédito que não forneceram empréstimos de microcrédito ao longo do período amostral. A pesquisa apresenta evidências de que o volume de clientes e de operações de microcrédito realizadas pelas cooperativas de crédito brasileiras foi positivamente afetado por mudanças regulatórias ocorridas em 2011, de forma compatível com os objetivos da intervenção governamental. As evidências também sugerem que a intervenção governamental enfocada não comprometeu a sustentabilidade nanceira das cooperativas. As mudanças enfocadas são: redução substancial das taxas de juros e custos de transação, implementação de subsídios aos participantes do programa e impulso para bancos públicos para aumentar sua oferta de microcrédito produtivo e orientado

Endogeneity in panel data regressions: methodological guidance for corporate finance researchers

Purpose –To describe the use of specific lags (and/or temporal differences) of the original regressors as instrumental variables in a succinct and practical way, showing, by means of a theoretical discussion illustrated by an original simulation exercise, how combining these with adequate modeling of firm and time fixed effects can address not only the dynamic endogeneity problem, but also those derived from the presence of omitted variables, measurement errors, and simultaneity between dependent and independent variables. Design/methodology/approach – Monte Carlo simulation Findings – The traditional OLS, RE, and FE estimators may be inconsistent in the presence of endogeneity problems that are quite plausible in the context of corporate finance. On the other hand, the estimation methods for panel data based on GMM that use assumptions of sequential exogeneity of the regressors present alternatives that are capable of effectively overcoming all the problems listed (provided these assumptions are valid) even if the researcher does not have good instrumental variables that are external to the model Originality/value –The paper discusses and illustrates a greater number of endogeneity problems, showing how they are addressed by different estimators for panel data, using less technical and more accessible language for researchers not yet initiated in the intricacies of estimating dynamic models for panel data

Wild dogs at stake: deforestation threatens the only Amazon endemic canid, the short-eared dog (Atelocynus microtis)

The persistent high deforestation rate and fragmentation of the Amazon forests are the main threats to their biodiversity. To anticipate and mitigate these threats, it is important to understand and predict how species respond to the rapidly changing landscape. The short-eared dog Atelocynus microtis is the only Amazon-endemic canid and one of the most understudied wild dogs worldwide. We investigated short-eared dog habitat associations on two spatial scales. First, we used the largest record database ever compiled for short-eared dogs in combination with species distribution models to map species habitat suitability, estimate its distribution range and predict shifts in species distribution in response to predicted deforestation across the entire Amazon (regional scale). Second, we used systematic camera trap surveys and occupancy models to investigate how forest cover and forest fragmentation affect the space use of this species in the Southern Brazilian Amazon (local scale). Species distribution models suggested that the short-eared dog potentially occurs over an extensive and continuous area, through most of the Amazon region south of the Amazon River. However, approximately 30% of the short-eared dog's current distribution is expected to be lost or suffer sharp declines in habitat suitability by 2027 (within three generations) due to forest loss. This proportion might reach 40% of the species distribution in unprotected areas and exceed 60% in some interfluves (i.e. portions of land separated by large rivers) of the Amazon basin. Our local-scale analysis indicated that the presence of forest positively affected short-eared dog space use, while the density of forest edges had a negative effect. Beyond shedding light on the ecology of the short-eared dog and refining its distribution range, our results stress that forest loss poses a serious threat to the conservation of the species in a short time frame. Hence, we propose a re-assessment of the short-eared dog's current IUCN Red List status (Near Threatened) based on findings presented here. Our study exemplifies how data can be integrated across sources and modelling procedures to improve our knowledge of relatively understudied species

A relação entre o nível voluntário de transparência e o custo de capital próprio das empresas brasileiras não-financeiras

O objetivo principal desta pesquisa é verificar empiricamente a existência de relação significativa entre o nível de disclosure voluntário de informações e custo de capital próprio de empresas brasileiras não financeiras. É esperado que um maior nível de disclosure esteja relacionado a um menor custo de capital próprio pela redução do risco percebido pelos investidores. A fim de medir o nível de disclosure voluntário das empresas foi utilizado um questionário desenvolvido para este fim. O custo de capital próprio foi obtido com base em informações publicamente disponíveis das empresas. Foi encontrada uma relação negativa e significante entre as variáveis de interesse, indicando que as empresas que mais divulgam informações voluntariamente conseguem captar capital próprio a uma taxa mais barata

Low sensitivity of a urine LAM-ELISA in the diagnosis of pulmonary tuberculosis

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The development and evaluation of rapid and accurate new diagnostic tools is essential to improve tuberculosis (TB) control in developing countries. In a previous study, the first release of a urine LAM-ELISA by Chemogen (Portland, USA) has been evaluated with a promising sensitivity and specificity for the diagnosis of pulmonary TB. In the present study, the now commercially available assay has been clinically assessed regarding its diagnostic value alone and in combination with clinical co-factors.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The test was applied to two urine samples from 291 consecutively enrolled Tanzanian patients with suspected pulmonary tuberculosis. The participants were subsequently assigned to classification groups according to microbiological, clinical and radiological findings at recruitment and during a maximum follow up period of 56 days.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Only 35 out of 69 pulmonary TB cases -confirmed by smear microscopy and/or solid culture and/or liquid culture- showed at least one positive LAM-ELISA result (sensitivity 50.7%). The sensitivity was noticeably higher in females (66.7%) and in HIV positive participants (62.0%). The specificity amounted to 87.8% and was determined in participants with negative results in all microbiological tests and with sustained recovery under antibiotic treatment at day 56. Correlation with urinalysis revealed that proteinuria was significantly and positively associated with LAM-positivity (<it>P </it>= 0.026).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>This commercially available generation of LAM-ELISA does not appear to be useful as an independent diagnostic test for pulmonary tuberculosis. The question whether the assay is suitable as a supplemental device in the diagnosis of HIV-associated TB, requires further investigations.</p

Impact of cross-section uncertainties on supernova neutrino spectral parameter fitting in the Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment

A primary goal of the upcoming Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE) is to measure the $\mathcal{O}(10)$ MeV neutrinos produced by a Galactic core-collapse supernova if one should occur during the lifetime of the experiment. The liquid-argon-based detectors planned for DUNE are expected to be uniquely sensitive to the $\nu_e$ component of the supernova flux, enabling a wide variety of physics and astrophysics measurements. A key requirement for a correct interpretation of these measurements is a good understanding of the energy-dependent total cross section $\sigma(E_\nu)$ for charged-current $\nu_e$ absorption on argon. In the context of a simulated extraction of supernova $\nu_e$ spectral parameters from a toy analysis, we investigate the impact of $\sigma(E_\nu)$ modeling uncertainties on DUNE's supernova neutrino physics sensitivity for the first time. We find that the currently large theoretical uncertainties on $\sigma(E_\nu)$ must be substantially reduced before the $\nu_e$ flux parameters can be extracted reliably: in the absence of external constraints, a measurement of the integrated neutrino luminosity with less than 10\% bias with DUNE requires $\sigma(E_\nu)$ to be known to about 5%. The neutrino spectral shape parameters can be known to better than 10% for a 20% uncertainty on the cross-section scale, although they will be sensitive to uncertainties on the shape of $\sigma(E_\nu)$. A direct measurement of low-energy $\nu_e$-argon scattering would be invaluable for improving the theoretical precision to the needed level.Comment: 25 pages, 21 figure