Using random forest and decision tree models for a new vehicle prediction approach in computational toxicology

yesDrug vehicles are chemical carriers that provide beneficial aid to the drugs they bear. Taking advantage of their favourable properties can potentially allow the safer use of drugs that are considered highly toxic. A means for vehicle selection without experimental trial would therefore be of benefit in saving time and money for the industry. Although machine learning is increasingly used in predictive toxicology, to our knowledge there is no reported work in using machine learning techniques to model drug-vehicle relationships for vehicle selection to minimise toxicity. In this paper we demonstrate the use of data mining and machine learning techniques to process, extract and build models based on classifiers (decision trees and random forests) that allow us to predict which vehicle would be most suited to reduce a drug’s toxicity. Using data acquired from the National Institute of Health’s (NIH) Developmental Therapeutics Program (DTP) we propose a methodology using an area under a curve (AUC) approach that allows us to distinguish which vehicle provides the best toxicity profile for a drug and build classification models based on this knowledge. Our results show that we can achieve prediction accuracies of 80 % using random forest models whilst the decision tree models produce accuracies in the 70 % region. We consider our methodology widely applicable within the scientific domain and beyond for comprehensively building classification models for the comparison of functional relationships between two variables

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

SummaryBackground The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. Methods We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors—the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specific DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Findings Between 1990 and 2015, global exposure to unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, childhood underweight, childhood stunting, and smoking each decreased by more than 25%. Global exposure for several occupational risks, high body-mass index (BMI), and drug use increased by more than 25% over the same period. All risks jointly evaluated in 2015 accounted for 57·8% (95% CI 56·6–58·8) of global deaths and 41·2% (39·8–42·8) of DALYs. In 2015, the ten largest contributors to global DALYs among Level 3 risks were high systolic blood pressure (211·8 million [192·7 million to 231·1 million] global DALYs), smoking (148·6 million [134·2 million to 163·1 million]), high fasting plasma glucose (143·1 million [125·1 million to 163·5 million]), high BMI (120·1 million [83·8 million to 158·4 million]), childhood undernutrition (113·3 million [103·9 million to 123·4 million]), ambient particulate matter (103·1 million [90·8 million to 115·1 million]), high total cholesterol (88·7 million [74·6 million to 105·7 million]), household air pollution (85·6 million [66·7 million to 106·1 million]), alcohol use (85·0 million [77·2 million to 93·0 million]), and diets high in sodium (83·0 million [49·3 million to 127·5 million]). From 1990 to 2015, attributable DALYs declined for micronutrient deficiencies, childhood undernutrition, unsafe sanitation and water, and household air pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DALY rates rather than reductions in exposure drove these declines. Rising exposure contributed to notable increases in attributable DALYs from high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, occupational carcinogens, and drug use. Environmental risks and childhood undernutrition declined steadily with SDI; low physical activity, high BMI, and high fasting plasma glucose increased with SDI. In 119 countries, metabolic risks, such as high BMI and fasting plasma glucose, contributed the most attributable DALYs in 2015. Regionally, smoking still ranked among the leading five risk factors for attributable DALYs in 109 countries; childhood underweight and unsafe sex remained primary drivers of early death and disability in much of sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation Declines in some key environmental risks have contributed to declines in critical infectious diseases. Some risks appear to be invariant to SDI. Increasing risks, including high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, drug use, and some occupational exposures, contribute to rising burden from some conditions, but also provide opportunities for intervention. Some highly preventable risks, such as smoking, remain major causes of attributable DALYs, even as exposure is declining. Public policy makers need to pay attention to the risks that are increasingly major contributors to global burden. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Simulating Food Web Dynamics along a Gradient: Quantifying Human Influence

Realistically parameterized and dynamically simulated food-webs are useful tool to explore the importance of the functional diversity of ecosystems, and in particular relations between the dynamics of species and the whole community. We present a stochastic dynamical food web simulation for the Kelian River (Borneo). The food web was constructed for six different locations, arrayed along a gradient of increasing human perturbation (mostly resulting from gold mining activities) along the river. Along the river, the relative importance of grazers, filterers and shredders decreases with increasing disturbance downstream, while predators become more dominant in governing eco-dynamics. Human activity led to increased turbidity and sedimentation which adversely impacts primary productivity. Since the main difference between the study sites was not the composition of the food webs (structure is quite similar) but the strengths of interactions and the abundance of the trophic groups, a dynamical simulation approach seemed to be useful to better explain human influence. In the pristine river (study site 1), when comparing a structural version of our model with the dynamical model we found that structurally central groups such as omnivores and carnivores were not the most important ones dynamically. Instead, primary consumers such as invertebrate grazers and shredders generated a greater dynamical response. Based on the dynamically most important groups, bottom-up control is replaced by the predominant top-down control regime as distance downstream and human disturbance increased. An important finding, potentially explaining the poor structure to dynamics relationship, is that indirect effects are at least as important as direct ones during the simulations. We suggest that our approach and this simulation framework could serve systems-based conservation efforts. Quantitative indicators on the relative importance of trophic groups and the mechanistic modeling of eco-dynamics could greatly contribute to understanding various aspects of functional diversity

Development of the Pulmonary Vein and the Systemic Venous Sinus: An Interactive 3D Overview

Knowledge of the normal formation of the heart is crucial for the understanding of cardiac pathologies and congenital malformations. The understanding of early cardiac development, however, is complicated because it is inseparably associated with other developmental processes such as embryonic folding, formation of the coelomic cavity, and vascular development. Because of this, it is necessary to integrate morphological and experimental analyses. Morphological insights, however, are limited by the difficulty in communication of complex 3D-processes. Most controversies, in consequence, result from differences in interpretation, rather than observation. An example of such a continuing debate is the development of the pulmonary vein and the systemic venous sinus, or “sinus venosus”. To facilitate understanding, we present a 3D study of the developing venous pole in the chicken embryo, showing our results in a novel interactive fashion, which permits the reader to form an independent opinion. We clarify how the pulmonary vein separates from a greater vascular plexus within the splanchnic mesoderm. The systemic venous sinus, in contrast, develops at the junction between the splanchnic and somatic mesoderm. We discuss our model with respect to normal formation of the heart, congenital cardiac malformations, and the phylogeny of the venous tributaries

Mental workload and driving

International audienceThe aim of this review is to identify the most representative measures of subjective and objective mental workload in driving, and to understand how the subjective and objective levels of mental workload influence the performance as a function of situation complexity and driving experience, i.e., to verify whether the increase of situation complexity and the lack of experience increase the subjective and physiological levels of mental workload and lead to driving performance impairments. This review will be useful to both researchers designing an experimental study of mental workload and to designers of drivers' training content. In the first part, we will broach the theoretical approach with two factors of mental workload and performance, i.e., situation complexity and driving experience. Indeed, a low complex situation (e.g., highways), or conversely a high complex situation (e.g., town) can provoke an overload. Additionally, performing the driving tasks implies producing a high effort for novice drivers who have not totally automated the driving activity. In the second part, we will focus on subjective measures of mental workload. A comparison of questionnaires usually used in driving will allow identifying the most appropriate ones as a function of different criteria. Moreover, we will review the empirical studies to verify if the subjective level of mental workload is high in simple and very complex situations, especially for novice drivers compared to the experienced ones. In the third part, we will focus on physiological measures. A comparison of physiological indicators will be realized in order to identify the most correlated to mental workload. An empirical review will also take the effect of situation complexity and experience on these physiological indicators into consideration. Finally, a more nuanced comparison between subjective and physiological measures will be established from the impact on situation complexity and experience

Notch signaling in glioblastoma: a developmental drug target?

Malignant gliomas are among the most devastating tumors for which conventional therapies have not significantly improved patient outcome. Despite advances in imaging, surgery, chemotherapy and radiotherapy, survival is still less than 2 years from diagnosis and more targeted therapies are urgently needed. Notch signaling is central to the normal and neoplastic development of the central nervous system, playing important roles in proliferation, differentiation, apoptosis and cancer stem cell regulation. Notch is also involved in the regulation response to hypoxia and angiogenesis, which are typical tumor and more specifically glioblastoma multiforme (GBM) features. Targeting Notch signaling is therefore a promising strategy for developing future therapies for the treatment of GBM. In this review we give an overview of the mechanisms of Notch signaling, its networking pathways in gliomas, and discuss its potential for designing novel therapeutic approaches

Latitudinal diversity gradients in New World bats: are they a consequence of niche conservatism?

The increase in species diversity from the Poles to the Equator is a major biogeographic pattern, but the mechanisms underlying it remain obscure. Our aim is to contribute to their clarification by describing the latitudinal gradients in species richness and in evolutionary age of species of New World bats, and testing if those patterns may be explained by the niche conservatism hypothesis. Maps of species ranges were used to estimate species richness in a 100 x 100 km grid. Root distances in a molecular phylogeny were used as a proxy for the age of species, and the mean root distance of the species in each cell of the grid was estimated. Generalised additive models were used to relate latitude with both species richness and mean root distance. This was done for each of the three most specious bat families and for all Chiroptera combined. Species richness increases towards the Equator in the whole of the Chiroptera and in the Phyllostomidae and Molossidae, families that radiated in the tropics, but the opposite trend is observed in the Vespertilionidae, which has a presumed temperate origin. In the whole of the Chiroptera, and in the three main families, there were more basal species in the higher latitudes, and more derived species in tropical areas. In general, our results were not consistent with the predictions of niche conservatism. Tropical niche conservatism seems to keep bat clades of tropical origin from colonizing temperate zones, as they lack adaptations to survive cold winters, such as the capacity to hibernate. However, the lower diversity of Vespertilionidae in the Neotropics is better explained by competition with a diverse pre-existing community of bats than by niche conservatism.MJRP was supported by Foundation for Science and Technology, Portugal (www.fct.pt), fellowship SFRH/BD/19620/2004 and SFRH/BPD/ 72845/2010. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript. We thank J. P. Granadeiro and R. Lemos for advice on statistical methods, J. A. Diniz-Filho for support with SAM software, and M. A. Dias and P. E. Cardoso for help with the distributional maps. O. R. P. Bininda-Emonds kindly gave us access to the Chiroptera species-level phylogeny. Bat data was provided by NatureServe in collaboration with Bruce Patterson, Wes Sechrest, Marcelo Tognelli, Gerardo Ceballos, the Nature Conservancy-Migratory Bird Program, Conservation International-CABS, World Wildlife Fund-US, and Environment Canada-WILDSPACE - http://www.natureserve.org/infonatura.publishe

The Cholesterol Metabolite 25-Hydroxycholesterol Activates Estrogen Receptor α-Mediated Signaling in Cancer Cells and in Cardiomyocytes

The hydroxylated derivatives of cholesterol, such as the oxysterols, play important roles in lipid metabolism. In particular, 25-hydroxycholesterol (25 HC) has been implicated in a variety of metabolic events including cholesterol homeostasis and atherosclerosis. 25 HC is detectable in human plasma after ingestion of a meal rich in oxysterols and following a dietary cholesterol challenge. In addition, the levels of oxysterols, including 25 HC, have been found to be elevated in hypercholesterolemic serum.Here, we demonstrate that the estrogen receptor (ER) α mediates gene expression changes and growth responses induced by 25 HC in breast and ovarian cancer cells. Moreover, 25 HC exhibits the ERα-dependent ability like 17 β-estradiol (E2) to inhibit the up-regulation of HIF-1α and connective tissue growth factor by hypoxic conditions in cardiomyocytes and rat heart preparations and to prevent the hypoxia-induced apoptosis.The estrogen action exerted by 25 HC may be considered as an additional factor involved in the progression of breast and ovarian tumors. Moreover, the estrogen-like activity of 25 HC elicited in the cardiovascular system may play a role against hypoxic environments

A systematic review of the effectiveness of self-management interventions in people with multiple sclerosis at improving depression, anxiety and quality of life.

BACKGROUND: Self-management interventions have become increasingly popular in the management of long-term health conditions; however, little is known about their impact on psychological well-being in people with Multiple Sclerosis (MS). PURPOSE: To examine the effectiveness of self-management interventions on improving depression, anxiety and health related quality of life in people with MS. METHOD: A structured literature search was conducted for the years 2000 to 2016. The review process followed the PRISMA guidelines, and is registered with PROSPERO (no. CRD42016033925). RESULTS: The review identified 10 RCT trials that fulfilled selection criteria and quality appraisal. Self-management interventions improved health-related quality of life in 6 out of 7 studies, with some evidence of improvement in depression and anxiety symptoms. CONCLUSION: Although the results are promising more robust evaluation is required in order to determine the effectiveness of self-management interventions on depression, anxiety and quality of life in people with MS. Evaluation of the data was impeded by a number of methodological issues including incomplete content and delivery information for the intervention and the exclusion of participants representing the disease spectrum. Recommendations are made for service development and research quality improvement

Populations of Radial Glial Cells Respond Differently to Reelin and Neuregulin1 in a Ferret Model of Cortical Dysplasia

Radial glial cells play an essential role during corticogenesis through their function as neural precursors and guides of neuronal migration. Both reelin and neuregulin1 (NRG1) maintain the radial glial scaffold; they also induce expression of Brain Lipid Binding Protein (BLBP), a well known marker of radial glia. Although radial glia in normal ferrets express both vimentin and BLBP, this coexpression diverges at P3; vimentin is expressed in the radial glial processes, while BLBP appears in cells detached from the ventricular zone. Our lab developed a model of cortical dysplasia in the ferret, resulting in impaired migration of neurons into the cortical plate and disordered radial glia. This occurs after exposure to the antimitotic methylazoxymethanol (MAM) on the 24th day of development (E24). Ferrets treated with MAM on E24 result in an overall decrease of BLBP expression; radial glia that continue to express BLBP, however, show only mild disruption compared with the strongly disrupted vimentin expressing radial glia. When E24 MAM-treated organotypic slices are exposed to reelin or NRG1, the severely disrupted vimentin+ radial glial processes are repaired but the slightly disordered BLBP+ processes are not. The realignment of vimentin+ processes was linked with an increase of their BLBP expression. BLBP expressing radial glia are distinguished by being both less affected by MAM treatment and by attempts at repair. We further investigated the effects induced by reelin and found that signaling was mediated via VLDLR/Dab1/Pi3K activation while NRG1 signaling was mediated via erbB3/erbB4/Pi3K. We then tested whether radial glial repair correlated with improved neuronal migration. Repairing the radial glial scaffold is not sufficient to restore neuronal migration; although reelin improves migration of neurons toward the cortical plate signaling through ApoER2/Dab1/PI3K activation, NRG1 does not