Risk, Unexpected Uncertainty, and Estimation Uncertainty: Bayesian Learning in Unstable Settings

Recently, evidence has emerged that humans approach learning using Bayesian updating rather than (model-free) reinforcement algorithms in a six-arm restless bandit problem. Here, we investigate what this implies for human appreciation of uncertainty. In our task, a Bayesian learner distinguishes three equally salient levels of uncertainty. First, the Bayesian perceives irreducible uncertainty or risk: even knowing the payoff probabilities of a given arm, the outcome remains uncertain. Second, there is (parameter) estimation uncertainty or ambiguity: payoff probabilities are unknown and need to be estimated. Third, the outcome probabilities of the arms change: the sudden jumps are referred to as unexpected uncertainty. We document how the three levels of uncertainty evolved during the course of our experiment and how it affected the learning rate. We then zoom in on estimation uncertainty, which has been suggested to be a driving force in exploration, in spite of evidence of widespread aversion to ambiguity. Our data corroborate the latter. We discuss neural evidence that foreshadowed the ability of humans to distinguish between the three levels of uncertainty. Finally, we investigate the boundaries of human capacity to implement Bayesian learning. We repeat the experiment with different instructions, reflecting varying levels of structural uncertainty. Under this fourth notion of uncertainty, choices were no better explained by Bayesian updating than by (model-free) reinforcement learning. Exit questionnaires revealed that participants remained unaware of the presence of unexpected uncertainty and failed to acquire the right model with which to implement Bayesian updating

Tcf-3 expression and β -catenin mediated transcriptional activation in aggressive fibromatosis (desmoid tumour)

Aggressive fibromatosis harbours mutations resulting in β-catenin protein stabilization. Primary cell cultures demonstrate constitutive tcf activation in aggressive fibromatosis. Expression and co-immunoprecipitation studies suggest that β-catenin binds and activates tcf-3 in this tumour. This is the first demonstration of tcf-3 activation by β-catenin stabilization in a human neoplastic process. © 2001 Cancer Research Campaign http://www.bjcancer.co

The dependence of dijet production on photon virtuality in ep collisions at HERA

The dependence of dijet production on the virtuality of the exchanged photon, Q^2, has been studied by measuring dijet cross sections in the range 0 < Q^2 < 2000 GeV^2 with the ZEUS detector at HERA using an integrated luminosity of 38.6 pb^-1. Dijet cross sections were measured for jets with transverse energy E_T^jet > 7.5 and 6.5 GeV and pseudorapidities in the photon-proton centre-of-mass frame in the range -3 < eta^jet <0. The variable xg^obs, a measure of the photon momentum entering the hard process, was used to enhance the sensitivity of the measurement to the photon structure. The Q^2 dependence of the ratio of low- to high-xg^obs events was measured. Next-to-leading-order QCD predictions were found to generally underestimate the low-xg^obs contribution relative to that at high xg^obs. Monte Carlo models based on leading-logarithmic parton-showers, using a partonic structure for the photon which falls smoothly with increasing Q^2, provide a qualitative description of the data.Comment: 35 pages, 6 eps figures, submitted to Eur.Phys.J.

Beauty photoproduction measured using decays into muons in dijet events in ep collisions at s\sqrt{s}=318 GeV

The photoproduction of beauty quarks in events with two jets and a muon has been measured with the ZEUS detector at HERA using an integrated luminosity of 110 pb$^{- 1}$. The fraction of jets containing b quarks was extracted from the transverse momentum distribution of the muon relative to the closest jet. Differential cross sections for beauty production as a function of the transverse momentum and pseudorapidity of the muon, of the associated jet and of $x_{\gamma}^{jets}$, the fraction of the photon's momentum participating in the hard process, are compared with MC models and QCD predictions made at next-to-leading order. The latter give a good description of the data.Comment: 32 pages, 6 tables, 7 figures Table 6 and Figure 7 revised September 200

Search for a narrow charmed baryonic state decaying to D^*+/- p^-/+ in ep collisions at HERA

A resonance search has been made in the D^*+/- p^-/+ invariant-mass spectrum with the ZEUS detector at HERA using an integrated luminosity of 126 pb^-1. The decay channels D^*+ -> D^0 pi^+_s -> (K^- pi^+) pi^+_s and D^*+ -> D^0 pi^+_s -> (K^- pi^+ pi^+ pi^-) pi^+_s (and the corresponding antiparticle decays) were used to identify D^*+/- mesons. No resonance structure was observed in the D^*+/- p^-/+ mass spectrum from more than 60000 reconstructed D^*+/- mesons. The results are not compatible with a report of the H1 Collaboration of a charmed pentaquark, Theta^0_c.Comment: 22 pages, 7 figures, 1 table; minor text revisions; 2 references adde

Angular and Current-Target Correlations in Deep Inelastic Scattering at HERA

Correlations between charged particles in deep inelastic ep scattering have been studied in the Breit frame with the ZEUS detector at HERA using an integrated luminosity of 6.4 pb-1. Short-range correlations are analysed in terms of the angular separation between current-region particles within a cone centred around the virtual photon axis. Long-range correlations between the current and target regions have also been measured. The data support predictions for the scaling behaviour of the angular correlations at high Q2 and for anti-correlations between the current and target regions over a large range in Q2 and in the Bjorken scaling variable x. Analytic QCD calculations and Monte Carlo models correctly describe the trends of the data at high Q2, but show quantitative discrepancies. The data show differences between the correlations in deep inelastic scattering and e+e- annihilation.Comment: 26 pages including 10 figures (submitted to Eur. J. Phys. C

Plastisol Foaming Process. Decomposition of the Foaming Agent, Polymer Behavior in the Corresponding Temperature Range and Resulting Foam Properties

The decomposition of azodicarbonamide, used as foaming agent in PVC - plasticizer (1/1) plastisols was studied by DSC. Nineteen different plasticizers, all belonging to the ester family, two being polymeric (polyadipates), were compared. The temperature of maximum decomposition rate (in anisothermal regime at 5 K min-1 scanning rate), ranges between 434 and 452 K. The heat of decomposition ranges between 8.7 and 12.5 J g -1. Some trends of variation of these parameters appear significant and are discussed in terms of solvent (matrix) and viscosity effects on the decomposition reactions. The shear modulus at 1 Hz frequency was determined at the temperature of maximum rate of foaming agent decomposition, and differs significantly from a sample to another. The foam density was determined at ambient temperature and the volume fraction of bubbles was used as criterion to judge the efficiency of the foaming process. The results reveal the existence of an optimal shear modulus of the order of 2 kPa that corresponds roughly to plasticizer molar masses of the order of 450 ± 50 g mol-1. Heavier plasticizers, especially polymeric ones are too difficult to deform. Lighter plasticizers such as diethyl phthalate (DEP) deform too easily and presumably facilitate bubble collapse

Hemispheric Asymmetry in White Matter Connectivity of the Temporoparietal Junction with the Insula and Prefrontal Cortex

The temporoparietal junction (TPJ) is a key node in the brain's ventral attention network (VAN) that is involved in spatial awareness and detection of salient sensory stimuli, including pain. The anatomical basis of this network's right-lateralized organization is poorly understood. Here we used diffusion-weighted MRI and probabilistic tractography to compare the strength of white matter connections emanating from the right versus left TPJ to target regions in both hemispheres. Symmetry of structural connectivity was evaluated for connections between TPJ and target regions that are key cortical nodes in the right VAN (insula and inferior frontal gyrus) as well as target regions that are involved in salience and/or pain (putamen, cingulate cortex, thalamus). We found a rightward asymmetry in connectivity strength between the TPJ and insula in healthy human subjects who were scanned with two different sets of diffusion-weighted MRI acquisition parameters. This rightward asymmetry in TPJ-insula connectivity was stronger in females than in males. There was also a leftward asymmetry in connectivity strength between the TPJ and inferior frontal gyrus, consistent with previously described lateralization of language pathways. The rightward lateralization of the pathway between the TPJ and insula supports previous findings on the roles of these regions in stimulus-driven attention, sensory awareness, interoception and pain. The findings also have implications for our understanding of acute and chronic pains and stroke-induced spatial hemineglect

Elevated levels of β-catenin and fibronectin in three-dimensional collagen cultures of Dupuytren's disease cells are regulated by tension in vitro

BACKGROUND: Dupuytren's contracture or disease (DD) is a fibro-proliferative disease of the hand that results in the development of scar-like, collagen-rich disease cords within specific palmar fascia bands. Although the molecular pathology of DD is unknown, recent evidence suggests that β-catenin may play a role. In this study, collagen matrix cultures of primary disease fibroblasts show enhanced contraction and isometric tension-dependent changes in β-catenin and fibronectin levels. METHODS: Western blots of β-catenin and fibronectin levels were determined for control and disease primary cell cultures grown within stressed- and attached-collagen matrices. Collagen contraction was quantified, and immunocytochemistry analysis of filamentous actin performed. RESULTS: Disease cells exhibited enhanced collagen contraction activity compared to control cells. Alterations in isometric tension of collagen matrices triggered dramatic changes in β-catenin and fibronectin levels, including a transient increase in β-catenin levels within disease cells, while fibronectin levels steadily decreased to levels below those seen in normal cell cultures. In contrast, both fibronectin and β-catenin levels increased in attached collagen-matrix cultures of disease cells, while control cultures showed only increases in fibronectin levels. Immunocytochemistry analysis also revealed extensive filamentous actin networks in disease cells, and enhanced attachment and spreading of disease cell in collagen matrices. CONCLUSION: Three-dimensional collagen matrix cultures of primary disease cell lines are more contractile and express a more extensive filamentous actin network than patient-matched control cultures. The elevated levels of β-catenin and Fn seen in collagen matrix cultures of disease fibroblasts can be regulated by changes in isometric tension

Performance of CMS muon reconstruction in pp collision events at sqrt(s) = 7 TeV

The performance of muon reconstruction, identification, and triggering in CMS has been studied using 40 inverse picobarns of data collected in pp collisions at sqrt(s) = 7 TeV at the LHC in 2010. A few benchmark sets of selection criteria covering a wide range of physics analysis needs have been examined. For all considered selections, the efficiency to reconstruct and identify a muon with a transverse momentum pT larger than a few GeV is above 95% over the whole region of pseudorapidity covered by the CMS muon system, abs(eta) < 2.4, while the probability to misidentify a hadron as a muon is well below 1%. The efficiency to trigger on single muons with pT above a few GeV is higher than 90% over the full eta range, and typically substantially better. The overall momentum scale is measured to a precision of 0.2% with muons from Z decays. The transverse momentum resolution varies from 1% to 6% depending on pseudorapidity for muons with pT below 100 GeV and, using cosmic rays, it is shown to be better than 10% in the central region up to pT = 1 TeV. Observed distributions of all quantities are well reproduced by the Monte Carlo simulation.Comment: Replaced with published version. Added journal reference and DO