Projection of Populations by Level of Educational Attainment, Age and Sex for 120 Countries for 2005-2050

Using demographic multi-state methods, this paper presents projections for the population of 120 countries (covering 93 percent of the world population in 2000) by age, sex and level of educational attainment for the years 2000 to 2050. The dataset produced gives the full educational attainment distributions for four categories (no education, primary, secondary and tertiary education) by five-year age groups, with definitions that are consistent with a previous reconstruction of educational attainment for the years 1970 to 2000. Based on empirical distributions of educational attainment by age and sex for the year 2000, the method moves along cohort lines while taking into account differentials in fertility and mortality by education level. The most extensive in time and geographical coverage to date, to our knowledge this work represents the first attempt to project future educational attainment trends based on a statistical model of historical international attainment growth. The resulting dataset provides valuable insights both on the feasibility of international education targets and on their implications for human capital and population size and age structure

Decomposing the change in labour force indicators over time

In this paper we study changes in the size and the composition of the labour force in five OECD countries from 1983 through 2000. We apply a recent decomposition method to quantify the components of the change over time in the crude labour force rate and the mean age of the labour force. Our results show that the change in the crude labour force rate was dominated by the change in age-specific labour force participation rates. For the mean age of the labour force we find that for males the change in the age composition of the population predominately explains the overall change while the results for females are less clear-cut

Projection of populations by level of educational attainment, age, and sex for 120 countries for 2005-2050

Using demographic multi-state, cohort-component methods, we produce projections for 120 countries (covering 93% of the world population in 2005) by five-year age groups, sex, and four levels of educational attainment for the years 2005-2050. Taking into account differentials in fertility and mortality by education level, we present the first systematic global educational attainment projections according to four widely differing education scenarios. The results show the possible range of future educational attainment trends around the world, thereby contributing to long-term economic and social planning at the national and international levels, and to the assessment of the feasibility of international education goals

Comparative Network Analysis of Preterm vs. Full-Term Infant-Mother Interactions

Several studies have reported that interactions of mothers with preterm infants show differential characteristics compared to that of mothers with full-term infants. Interaction of preterm dyads is often reported as less harmonious. However, observations and explanations concerning the underlying mechanisms are inconsistent. In this work 30 preterm and 42 full-term mother-infant dyads were observed at one year of age. Free play interactions were videotaped and coded using a micro-analytic coding system. The video records were coded at one second resolution and studied by a novel approach using network analysis tools. The advantage of our approach is that it reveals the patterns of behavioral transitions in the interactions. We found that the most frequent behavioral transitions are the same in the two groups. However, we have identified several high and lower frequency transitions which occur significantly more often in the preterm or full-term group. Our analysis also suggests that the variability of behavioral transitions is significantly higher in the preterm group. This higher variability is mostly resulted from the diversity of transitions involving non-harmonious behaviors. We have identified a maladaptive pattern in the maternal behavior in the preterm group, involving intrusiveness and disengagement. Application of the approach reported in this paper to longitudinal data could elucidate whether these maladaptive maternal behavioral changes place the infant at risk for later emotional, cognitive and behavioral disturbance

Føler du deg ekte så kan ingen ta fra deg det - Norske, kvinnelige fjernsupporteres perspektiver på supporter-praksis

Studier av supporter-kultur og supporter-praksis har tradisjonelt operert med et tydelig skille mellom tradisjonell og moderne (Giulianotti, 2002; King, 2002), der de lokale ofte tilskrives mest autentisitet, mens fjernsupportere har et mer distansert forhold til klubben. Disse har presentert mannlige perspektiver, og (stort sett) hatt menn som informanter. Det har ført til en hierarkisering, og en autentisitetsvurdering hvor tradisjonelt maskuline kvaliteter er det som verdsettes (Wagg, 2004). Derfor tar denne oppgaven for seg kvinnelige fjernsupportere, ettersom dette er en gruppe supportere få studier har hatt som utgangspunkt. Utvalget består av sju norske kvinner som følger Liverpool F.C. Disse vil kunne møte mange utfordringer i supporter-praksisen da de verken er lokale eller menn. Ved å ta utgangspunkt i ulike autentisitetsoppfatninger (Hjelseth, 2005; Wagg, 2004; Wang, 1999) undersøker oppgaven hvordan dette påvirker og rammer inn supporter-praksisen. I oppgaven er dybdeintervju benyttet som metode for å få innblikk i kvinnenes supporter-praksis, hva som skaper den og hvordan de legitimerer den. Hva informantene anser som ekte, effekten av å være kvinne i et tradisjonelt mannsdominert miljø, holdninger til kommersialisering og bruk av supporter-effekter, og viktigheten av geografisk tilhørighet ble sentrale faktorer. Spesielt autentisitetsoppfatning viste seg å være sentralt for supporter-praksisen. Kvinnedimensjonen er ett av de sentrale temaene på grunn av oppgavens mål om å forstå kvinnelige fjernsupportere. Tradisjonell litteratur på supporter-kultur var ikke dekkende for å forstå dette ettersom kvinner har vært lite studert i tidligere studier. Derfor benyttes kjønnsteori, hovedsakelig i form av "andregjøring" (Beauvoir, 2000) for å forstå dette. De andre er sentrale i litteratur, både for å forstå autentisitet og for holdninger til kommersialisering. Funnene viser at kvinnene har en autentisitetsoppfatning som i større grad er dynamisk enn det som beskrives i deler av litteraturen (Wagg, 2004). Hva som kreves for å være en autentisk supporter er mindre kategorisk. Det viktigste funnet med tanke på autentisitetsoppfatning er at kvinnene mener det er opp til hver enkelt. Føler man seg som en ekte supporter, er man ekte. Dermed føler de lite behov for å legitimere sin egen supporter-praksis, og trenger ikke hevde sin plass i et hierarki, som det er vist at noen menn gjør (King, 2002). Supporter-praksisen i utvalget var preget av stor variasjon, men holdningen til kommersialisering var preget av at det ikke skulle føre til ekskludering (hovedsakelig pga. økonomi), verken av fjernsupportere eller lokale.Studies of supporter-culture and supporter-practices have traditionally operated with a clear distinction between traditional and modern (Giulianotti, 2002; King, 2002), where locals are often attributed to the most authenticity, while remote supporters have a more distant relationship with the club. These have presented male perspectives, and (largely) had men as informants. This has led to a hierarchy and an authenticity assessment where traditionally masculine qualities are valued (Wagg, 2004). This is why this assignment deals with female distance-supporters, as this is a group of supporters few studies have had as a starting point. The sample consists of seven Norwegian women who follow Liverpool F.C. These will face many challenges in the supporter practice as they are neither local nor male. Drawing on different authenticity beliefs (Hjelseth, 2005; Wagg, 2004; Wang, 1999), this thesis explores how this affects and frames the supporter practice. In the thesis, in-depth interviews are used as a method to get an insight into women's supporter-practice, what creates it and how they legitimize it. What informants consider real, the effect of being women in a traditional male-dominated environment, attitudes toward commercialization and use of supporter effects, and the importance of geographical belonging became key factors. Especially authenticity beliefs proved to be central to supporter practices. The female dimension is one of the central themes because of the mission's goal of understanding female remote supporters. Traditional literature on supporter culture was not sufficient to understand this, as women has been little studied in previous studies. Therefore, gender theory is used, mainly in the form of "second sex"-theory (Beauvoir, 2000) to understand this. The other factors are central to literature, both to understand authenticity and for attitude towards commercialization. The findings show that women have a sense of authenticity that is more dynamic than what's described in parts of the literature (Wagg, 2004). What it takes to be an authentic supporter is less categorical. The most important finding with regard to authenticity beliefs is that women believe it is up to each individual. If you feel like a true supporter, you are real. Thus, they feel little need to legitimize their own supporter-practices, and do not have to claim their place in a hierarchy, as some men have shown (King, 2002). The supporter-practice in the sample was characterized by great variety, but the attitude towards commercialization was characterized by the fact that it should not lead to exclusion (mainly due to finances), neither by remote supporters or local

Does Grandparenting Influence Engagement in Social Activities?

The positive effects of participation in social activities have been studied in various fields, including political science (in relation to democracy and trust), gerontology, and sociology (for its effects on physical and mental health). Against a background of rapid population ageing, the study of social integration among the elderly is of particular relevance within the framework of active ageing. Yet, whether the relationship between kin and non-kin social activities is characterized by cumulation or competition remains under-explored. In particular, grandparenting has taken a central role for the elderly due to unprecedented overlap between grandparents' and their grandchildren's lives. Grandparenting may stimulate social participation or it may impose time and energy constraints on it. This study aims to assess the effect on the participation in social activities among the elderly of providing childcare on a regular basis. Using an instrumental variable approach on data from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe, we find that regular provision of childcare has a significant negative effect on the number of activities in which grandmothers participate. When considering the activities separately by type, we find a negative effect on engagement in educational or training courses for both grandfathers and grandmothers, while a negative effect on volunteering and participating in political or community-related organization is additionally found only for grandmothers. These results contribute to the debate on active ageing

Age and skill bias of trade liberalisation? : heterogeneous employment effects of EU Eastern Enlargement

This study analyses the 2004 Eastern Enlargement to the European Union to obtain evidence on the employment effects of an increase in trade liberalisation. The Enlargement is thought to generate a trade-induced demand shock with no (or only limited) supply effects. Besides the variation over time induced by the Enlargement, identification of the effects is based on a Melitz (2003) type productivity term to differentiate firms by the extent of exposure to the demand shock. The idea is that the effects of the demand shock should be driven by differences in firm-level productivity from the period before the new member countries actually entered the EU. German linked employer-employee data allow to observe the relation of initial establishment productivity with employment changes over a long panel from 1995 to 2009. The estimates show that the Enlargement had a negative effect on establishment-level employment growth, which is driven by increased worker separations and increased job destruction. Besides the overall employment effect, the study focuses on effect heterogeneity across age and skill groups of the workforce. These estimates point to a skill bias in the effect of the Enlargement that disadvantages low- and medium-skilled workers in terms of higher worker separation and job destruction. In addition, lowskilled workers suffer fewer accessions by firms, where against medium-skilled workers enjoy increased accessions and creation of new jobs. Besides this indication for a skill bias, there are no clear indications that point to an age bias in the employment effect of the Eastern Enlargement

Global and national Burden of diseases and injuries among children and adolescents between 1990 and 2013

Importance The literature focuses on mortality among children younger than 5 years. Comparable information on nonfatal health outcomes among these children and the fatal and nonfatal burden of diseases and injuries among older children and adolescents is scarce. Objective To determine levels and trends in the fatal and nonfatal burden of diseases and injuries among younger children (aged <5 years), older children (aged 5-9 years), and adolescents (aged 10-19 years) between 1990 and 2013 in 188 countries from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2013 study. Evidence Review Data from vital registration, verbal autopsy studies, maternal and child death surveillance, and other sources covering 14 244 site-years (ie, years of cause of death data by geography) from 1980 through 2013 were used to estimate cause-specific mortality. Data from 35 620 epidemiological sources were used to estimate the prevalence of the diseases and sequelae in the GBD 2013 study. Cause-specific mortality for most causes was estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble Model strategy. For some infectious diseases (eg, HIV infection/AIDS, measles, hepatitis B) where the disease process is complex or the cause of death data were insufficient or unavailable, we used natural history models. For most nonfatal health outcomes, DisMod-MR 2.0, a Bayesian metaregression tool, was used to meta-analyze the epidemiological data to generate prevalence estimates. Findings Of the 7.7 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 7.4-8.1) million deaths among children and adolescents globally in 2013, 6.28 million occurred among younger children, 0.48 million among older children, and 0.97 million among adolescents. In 2013, the leading causes of death were lower respiratory tract infections among younger children (905 059 deaths; 95% UI, 810 304-998 125), diarrheal diseases among older children (38 325 deaths; 95% UI, 30 365-47 678), and road injuries among adolescents (115 186 deaths; 95% UI, 105 185-124 870). Iron deficiency anemia was the leading cause of years lived with disability among children and adolescents, affecting 619 (95% UI, 618-621) million in 2013. Large between-country variations exist in mortality from leading causes among children and adolescents. Countries with rapid declines in all-cause mortality between 1990 and 2013 also experienced large declines in most leading causes of death, whereas countries with the slowest declines had stagnant or increasing trends in the leading causes of death. In 2013, Nigeria had a 12% global share of deaths from lower respiratory tract infections and a 38% global share of deaths from malaria. India had 33% of the world’s deaths from neonatal encephalopathy. Half of the world’s diarrheal deaths among children and adolescents occurred in just 5 countries: India, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Pakistan, Nigeria, and Ethiopia. Conclusions and Relevance Understanding the levels and trends of the leading causes of death and disability among children and adolescents is critical to guide investment and inform policies. Monitoring these trends over time is also key to understanding where interventions are having an impact. Proven interventions exist to prevent or treat the leading causes of unnecessary death and disability among children and adolescents. The findings presented here show that these are underused and give guidance to policy makers in countries where more attention is needed

Global, regional, and national incidence and mortality for HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria during 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

BACKGROUND: The Millennium Declaration in 2000 brought special global attention to HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria through the formulation of Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 6. The Global Burden of Disease 2013 study provides a consistent and comprehensive approach to disease estimation for between 1990 and 2013, and an opportunity to assess whether accelerated progress has occured since the Millennium Declaration. METHODS: To estimate incidence and mortality for HIV, we used the UNAIDS Spectrum model appropriately modified based on a systematic review of available studies of mortality with and without antiretroviral therapy (ART). For concentrated epidemics, we calibrated Spectrum models to fit vital registration data corrected for misclassification of HIV deaths. In generalised epidemics, we minimised a loss function to select epidemic curves most consistent with prevalence data and demographic data for all-cause mortality. We analysed counterfactual scenarios for HIV to assess years of life saved through prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) and ART. For tuberculosis, we analysed vital registration and verbal autopsy data to estimate mortality using cause of death ensemble modelling. We analysed data for corrected case-notifications, expert opinions on the case-detection rate, prevalence surveys, and estimated cause-specific mortality using Bayesian meta-regression to generate consistent trends in all parameters. We analysed malaria mortality and incidence using an updated cause of death database, a systematic analysis of verbal autopsy validation studies for malaria, and recent studies (2010-13) of incidence, drug resistance, and coverage of insecticide-treated bednets. FINDINGS: Globally in 2013, there were 1·8 million new HIV infections (95% uncertainty interval 1·7 million to 2·1 million), 29·2 million prevalent HIV cases (28·1 to 31·7), and 1·3 million HIV deaths (1·3 to 1·5). At the peak of the epidemic in 2005, HIV caused 1·7 million deaths (1·6 million to 1·9 million). Concentrated epidemics in Latin America and eastern Europe are substantially smaller than previously estimated. Through interventions including PMTCT and ART, 19·1 million life-years (16·6 million to 21·5 million) have been saved, 70·3% (65·4 to 76·1) in developing countries. From 2000 to 2011, the ratio of development assistance for health for HIV to years of life saved through intervention was US$4498 in developing countries. Including in HIV-positive individuals, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7·5 million (7·4 million to 7·7 million), prevalence was 11·9 million (11·6 million to 12·2 million), and number of deaths was 1·4 million (1·3 million to 1·5 million) in 2013. In the same year and in only individuals who were HIV-negative, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7·1 million (6·9 million to 7·3 million), prevalence was 11·2 million (10·8 million to 11·6 million), and number of deaths was 1·3 million (1·2 million to 1·4 million). Annualised rates of change (ARC) for incidence, prevalence, and death became negative after 2000. Tuberculosis in HIV-negative individuals disproportionately occurs in men and boys (versus women and girls); 64·0% of cases (63·6 to 64·3) and 64·7% of deaths (60·8 to 70·3). Globally, malaria cases and deaths grew rapidly from 1990 reaching a peak of 232 million cases (143 million to 387 million) in 2003 and 1·2 million deaths (1·1 million to 1·4 million) in 2004. Since 2004, child deaths from malaria in sub-Saharan Africa have decreased by 31·5% (15·7 to 44·1). Outside of Africa, malaria mortality has been steadily decreasing since 1990. INTERPRETATION: Our estimates of the number of people living with HIV are 18·7% smaller than UNAIDS's estimates in 2012. The number of people living with malaria is larger than estimated by WHO. The number of people living with HIV, tuberculosis, or malaria have all decreased since 2000. At the global level, upward trends for malaria and HIV deaths have been reversed and declines in tuberculosis deaths have accelerated. 101 countries (74 of which are developing) still have increasing HIV incidence. Substantial progress since the Millennium Declaration is an encouraging sign of the effect of global action. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation