Models for Forest Ecosystem Management: A European Perspective

Background Forest management in Europe is committed to sustainability. In the face of climate change and accompanying risks, however, planning in order to achieve this aim becomes increasingly challenging, underlining the need for new and innovative methods. Models potentially integrate a wide range of system knowledge and present scenarios of variables important for any management decision. In the past, however, model development has mainly focused on specific purposes whereas today we are increasingly aware of the need for the whole range of information that can be provided by models. It is therefore assumed helpful to review the various approaches that are available for specific tasks and to discuss how they can be used for future management strategies. Scope Here we develop a concept for the role of models in forest ecosystem management based on historical analyses. Five paradigms of forest management are identified: (1) multiple uses, (2) dominant use, (3) environmentally sensitive multiple uses, (4) full ecosystem approach and (5) eco-regional perspective. An overview of model approaches is given that is dedicated to this purpose and to developments of different kinds of approaches. It is discussed how these models can contribute to goal setting, decision support and development of guidelines for forestry operations. Furthermore, it is shown how scenario analysis, including stand and landscape visualization, can be used to depict alternatives, make long-term consequences of different options transparent, and ease participation of different stakeholder groups and education. Conclusions In our opinion, the current challenge of forest ecosystem management in Europe is to integrate system knowledge from different temporal and spatial scales and from various disciplines. For this purpose, using a set of models with different focus that can be selected from a kind of toolbox according to particular needs is more promising than developing one overarching model, covering ecological, production and landscape issues equally wel

The relative importance of seed competition, resource competition and perturbations on community structure

While the regional climate is the primary selection pressure for whether a plant strategy can survive, however, competitive interactions strongly affect the relative abundances of plant strategies within communities. Here, we investigate the relative importance of competition and perturbations on the development of vegetation community structure. To do so, we develop DIVE (Dynamics and Interactions of VEgetation), a simple general model that links plant strategies to their competitive dynamics, using growth and reproduction characteristics that emerge from climatic constraints. The model calculates population dynamics based on establishment, mortality, invasion and exclusion in the presence of different strengths of perturbations, seed and resource competition. The highest levels of diversity were found in simulations without competition as long as mortality is not too high. However, reasonable successional dynamics were only achieved when resource competition is considered. Under high levels of competition, intermediate levels of perturbations were required to obtain coexistence. Since succession and coexistence are observed in plant communities, we conclude that the DIVE model with competition and intermediate levels of perturbation represents an adequate way to model population dynamics. Because of the simplicity and generality of DIVE, it could be used to understand vegetation structure and functioning at the global scale and the response of vegetation to global change

Evaluating the Influence of Epidemiological Parameters and Host Ecology on the Spread of Phocine Distemper Virus through Populations of Harbour Seals

Catriona Harris was supported by a grant from the UK Natural Environment Research Council. The funders had no role in study design, data collections and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.Background: Outbreaks of phocine distemper virus (PDV) in Europe during 1988 and 2002 were responsible for the death of around 23,000 and 30,000 harbour seals, respectively. These epidemics, particularly the one in 2002, provided an unusual opportunity to estimate epidemic parameters for a wildlife disease. There were marked regional differences in the values of some parameters both within and between epidemics. Methodology and Principal Findings: We used an individual-based model of seal movement that allowed us to incorporate realistic representations of space, time and animal behaviour into a traditional epidemiological modelling framework. We explored the potential influence of a range of ecological (foraging trip duration, time of epidemic onset, population size) and epidemiological (length of infectious period, contact rate between infectious and susceptible individuals, case mortality) parameters on four readily-measurable epidemic characteristics (number of dead individuals, duration of epidemic, peak mortality date and prevalence) and on the probability that an epidemic would occur in a particular region. We analysed the outputs as if they were the results of a series of virtual experiments, using Generalised Linear Modelling. All six variables had a significant effect on the probability that an epidemic would be recognised as an unusual mortality event by human observers. Conclusions: Regional and temporal variation in contact rate was the most likely cause of the observed differences between the two epidemics. This variation could be a consequence of differences in the way individuals divide their time between land and sea at different times of the year.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Reference material for radionuclides in sediment IAEA-384 (Fangataufa Lagoon sediment)

Author Posting. © Springer, 2007. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of Springer for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Radioanalytical and Nuclear Chemistry 273 (2007): 383-393, doi:10.1007/s10967-007-6898-4.A reference material designed for the determination of anthropogenic and natural radionuclides in sediment, IAEA-384 (Fangataufa Lagoon sediment), is described and the results of certification are presented. The material has been certified for 8 radionuclides (40K, 60Co, 155Eu, 230Th, 238U, 238Pu, 239+240Pu and 241Am). Information values are given for 12 radionuclides (90Sr, 137Cs, 210Pb (210Po), 226Ra, 228Ra, 232Th, 234U, 235U, 239Pu, 240Pu and 241Pu). Less reported radionuclides include 228Th, 236U, 239Np and 242Pu. The reference material may be used for quality management of radioanalytical laboratories engaged in the analysis of radionuclides in the environment, as well as for the development and validation of analytical methods and for training purposes. The material is available from IAEA in 100 g units

Amerindian Helicobacter pylori Strains Go Extinct, as European Strains Expand Their Host Range

We studied the diversity of bacteria and host in the H. pylori-human model. The human indigenous bacterium H. pylori diverged along with humans, into African, European, Asian and Amerindian groups. Of these, Amerindians have the least genetic diversity. Since niche diversity widens the sets of resources for colonizing species, we predicted that the Amerindian H. pylori strains would be the least diverse. We analyzed the multilocus sequence (7 housekeeping genes) of 131 strains: 19 cultured from Africans, 36 from Spanish, 11 from Koreans, 43 from Amerindians and 22 from South American Mestizos. We found that all strains that had been cultured from Africans were African strains (hpAfrica1), all from Spanish were European (hpEurope) and all from Koreans were hspEAsia but that Amerindians and Mestizos carried mixed strains: hspAmerind and hpEurope strains had been cultured from Amerindians and hpEurope and hpAfrica1 were cultured from Mestizos. The least genetically diverse H. pylori strains were hspAmerind. Strains hpEurope were the most diverse and showed remarkable multilocus sequence mosaicism (indicating recombination). The lower genetic structure in hpEurope strains is consistent with colonization of a diversity of hosts. If diversity is important for the success of H. pylori, then the low diversity of Amerindian strains might be linked to their apparent tendency to disappear. This suggests that Amerindian strains may lack the needed diversity to survive the diversity brought by non-Amerindian hosts

Moving in the anthropocene: global reductions in terrestrial mammalian movements

Animal movement is fundamental for ecosystem functioning and species survival, yet the effects of the anthropogenic footprint on animal movements have not been estimated across species. Using a unique GPS-tracking database of 803 individuals across 57 species, we found that movements of mammals in areas with a comparatively high human footprint were on average one-half to one-third the extent of their movements in areas with a low human footprint. We attribute this reduction to behavioral changes of individual animals and to the exclusion of species with long-range movements from areas with higher human impact. Global loss of vagility alters a key ecological trait of animals that affects not only population persistence but also ecosystem processes such as predator-prey interactions, nutrient cycling, and disease transmission