Do we (need to) care about canopy radiation schemes in DGVMs? Caveats and potential impacts

Dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) are an essential part of current state-of-the-art Earth system models. In recent years, the complexity of DGVMs has increased by incorporating new important processes like, e.g., nutrient cycling and land cover dynamics, while biogeophysical processes like surface radiation have not been developed much further. Canopy radiation models are however very important for the estimation of absorption and reflected fluxes and are essential for a proper estimation of surface carbon, energy and water fluxes. The present study provides an overview of current implementations of canopy radiation schemes in a couple of state-of-the-art DGVMs and assesses their accuracy in simulating canopy absorption and reflection for a variety of different surface conditions. Systematic deviations in surface albedo and fractions of absorbed photosynthetic active radiation (faPAR) are identified and potential impacts are assessed. The results show clear deviations for both, absorbed and reflected, surface solar radiation fluxes. FaPAR is typically underestimated, which results in an underestimation of gross primary productivity (GPP) for the investigated cases. The deviation can be as large as 25% in extreme cases. Deviations in surface albedo range between −0.15 ≤ Δα ≤ 0.36, with a slight positive bias on the order of Δα ≈ 0.04. Potential radiative forcing caused by albedo deviations is estimated at −1.25 ≤ RF ≤ −0.8 (W m−2), caused by neglect of the diurnal cycle of surface albedo. The present study is the first one that provides an assessment of canopy RT schemes in different currently used DGVMs together with an assessment of the potential impact of the identified deviations. The paper illustrates that there is a general need to improve the canopy radiation schemes in DGVMs and provides different perspectives for their improvement

Water and energy budgets over hydrological basins on short and long timescales

Quantifying regional water and energy fluxes much more accurately from observations is essential for assessing the capability of climate and Earth system models and their ability to simulate future change. This study uses satellite observations to produce monthly flux estimates for each component of the terrestrial water and energy budget over selected large river basins from 2002 to 2013. Prior to optimisation, the water budget residuals vary between 1.5 % and 35 % precipitation by basin, and the magnitude of the imbalance between the net radiation and the corresponding turbulent heat fluxes ranges between 1 and 12 W m−2 in the long-term average. In order to further assess these imbalances, a flux-inferred surface storage (Sfi) is used for both water and energy, based on integrating the flux observations. This exposes mismatches in seasonal water storage in addition to important inter-annual variability between GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) and the storage suggested by the other flux observations. Our optimisation ensures that the flux estimates are consistent with the total water storage changes from GRACE on short (monthly) and longer timescales, while also balancing a coupled long-term energy budget by using a sequential approach. All the flux adjustments made during the optimisation are small and within uncertainty estimates, using a χ2 test, and inter-annual variability from observations is retained. The optimisation also reduces formal uncertainties for individual flux components. When compared with results from the previous literature in basins such as the Mississippi, Congo, and Huang He rivers, our results show better agreement with GRACE variability and trends in each case.</p

Macroeconomic costs of the unmet burden of surgical disease in Sierra Leone: a retrospective economic analysis.

OBJECTIVES: The Lancet Commission on Global Surgery estimated that low/middle-income countries will lose an estimated cumulative loss of US$12.3 trillion from gross domestic product (GDP) due to the unmet burden of surgical disease. However, no country-specific data currently exist. We aimed to estimate the costs to the Sierra Leone economy from death and disability which may have been averted by surgical care. DESIGN: We used estimates of total, met and unmet need from two main sources-a cluster randomised, cross-sectional, countrywide survey and a retrospective, nationwide study on surgery in Sierra Leone. We calculated estimated disability-adjusted life years from morbidity and mortality for the estimated unmet burden and modelled the likely economic impact using three different methods-gross national income per capita, lifetime earnings foregone and value of a statistical life. RESULTS: In 2012, estimated, discounted lifetime losses to the Sierra Leone economy from the unmet burden of surgical disease was between US$1.1 and US$3.8 billion, depending on the economic method used. These lifetime losses equate to between 23$360 million and US$2.9 billion. CONCLUSION: There is a large economic loss from the unmet need for surgical care in Sierra Leone. There is an immediate need for massive investment to counteract ongoing economic losses

'He just gave up': an exploratory study into the perspectives of paid carers on supporting older people living in care homes with depression, self-harm, and suicide ideation and behaviours

This study explored the concept of ‘giving up’ from the perspective of care staff working in care homes, and their everyday communication and hidden knowledge concerning what they think about this taboo topic and the context it reflects. Moving to a care home is a major transition where cumulative losses can pose risks to mental health in later life. If not recognised, this vulnerability can lead to depression which extends to suicide ideation and behaviours in the form of self-harm and self-neglect. Care homes are a significant place of care until death, yet a discourse of silence means that self-harm and suicide is under-reported or not attended to with specialist expertise. The layperson’s concept of an older person ‘giving up’ on life is hardly discussed in the literature. This co-produced qualitative study used an inductive approach to explore this phenomenon through focus groups with 33 care staff across four care homes in South-East England. Findings paint a complex picture, highlighting tensions in providing the right support and creating spaces to respond to such challenging situations. ‘Giving up’ requires skilled detailed assessment to respond to risks alongside improved training and support for paid carers, to achieve a more holistic strategy which capitalises on significant relationships within a wider context

Understanding demand for higher quality sanitation in peri-urban Lusaka, Zambia through stated and revealed preference analysis.

Poor peri-urban sanitation is a significant public health problem, likely to become more important as the world rapidly urbanizes. However, little is known about the role of consumer demand in increasing peri-urban sanitation quality, especially for tenants using shared sanitation as only their rental choices can be observed in the market. We analyzed data on existing housing markets collected between 9 Jun and 6 Jul 2017 using the Hedonic Pricing Method (HPM) to capture the percentage of rent attributable to sanitation quality (n = 933). We also conducted discrete choice experiments (DCEs) to obtain willingness to pay (WTP) estimates for specific sanitation components (n = 1087), and explored the implications by estimating the proportion of plots for which improved sanitation quality would generate a higher return on investment for landlords than building a place for an additional tenant to live. The HPM attributed 18% of rental prices to sanitation (∼US$8.10 per month), but parameters for several components were poorly specified due to collinearity and low overall prevalence of some products. DCEs revealed that tenants were willing to pay$2.20 more rent per month for flushing toilets on plots with running water and $3.39 more per month for solid toilet doors, though they were willing to pay little for simple hole covers and had negative WTP for adding locks to doors (-$1.04). Solid doors and flushing toilets had higher rent increase to cost ratios than other ways landlords commonly invested in their plots, especially as the number of tenant households on a plot increased. DCEs yielded estimates generally consistent with and better specified than HPM and may be useful to estimate demand in other settings. Interventions leveraging landlords' profit motives could lead to significant improvements in peri-urban sanitation quality, reduced diarrheal disease transmission, and increased well-being without subsidies or infrastructure investments by government or NGOs

Persistent reduced ecosystem respiration after insect disturbance in high elevation forests

Amid a worldwide increase in tree mortality, mountain pine beetles (Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins) have led to the death of billions of trees from Mexico to Alaska since 2000. This is predicted to have important carbon, water and energy balance feedbacks on the Earth system. Counter to current projections, we show that on a decadal scale, tree mortality causes no increase in ecosystem respiration from scales of several square metres up to an 84 km2 valley. Rather, we found comparable declines in both gross primary productivity and respiration suggesting little change in net flux, with a transitory recovery of respiration 6–7 years after mortality associated with increased incorporation of leaf litter C into soil organic matter, followed by further decline in years 8–10. The mechanism of the impact of tree mortality caused by these biotic disturbances is consistent with reduced input rather than increased output of carbon

Affordability of Adult Tuberculosis Vaccination in India and China: A Dynamic Transmission Model-Based Analysis.

New tuberculosis vaccines have made substantial progress in the development pipeline. Previous modelling suggests that adolescent/adult mass vaccination may cost-effectively contribute towards achieving global tuberculosis control goals. These analyses have not considered the budgetary feasibility of vaccine programmes. We estimate the maximum total cost that the public health sectors in India and China should expect to pay to introduce a M72/AS01E-like vaccine deemed cost-effective at country-specific willingness to pay thresholds for cost-effectiveness. To estimate the total disability adjusted life years (DALYs) averted by the vaccination programme, we simulated a 50% efficacy vaccine providing 10-years of protection in post-infection populations between 2027 and 2050 in India and China using a dynamic transmission model of M. tuberculosis. We investigated two mass vaccination strategies, both delivered every 10-years achieving 70% coverage: Vaccinating adults and adolescents (age ≥10y), or only the most efficient 10-year age subgroup (defined as greatest DALYs averted per vaccine given). We used country-specific thresholds for cost-effectiveness to estimate the maximum total cost (Cmax) a government should be willing to pay for each vaccination strategy. Adult/adolescent vaccination resulted in a Cmax of $21 billion (uncertainty interval [UI]: 16-27) in India, and$15B (UI:12-29) in China at willingness to pay thresholds of $264/DALY averted and$3650/DALY averted, respectively. Vaccinating the highest efficiency age group (India: 50-59y; China: 60-69y) resulted in a Cmax of $5B (UI:4-6) in India and$6B (UI:4-7) in China. Mass vaccination against tuberculosis of all adults and adolescents, deemed cost-effective, will likely impose a substantial budgetary burden. Targeted tuberculosis vaccination, deemed cost-effective, may represent a more affordable approach

Challenges for modelling interventions for future pandemics

Funding: This work was supported by the Isaac Newton Institute (EPSRC grant no. EP/R014604/1). MEK was supported by grants from The Netherlands Organisation for Health Research and Development (ZonMw), grant number 10430022010001, and grant number 91216062, and by the H2020 Project 101003480 (CORESMA). RNT was supported by the UKRI, grant number EP/V053507/1. GR was supported by Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (FCT) project reference 131_596787873. and by the VERDI project 101045989 funded by the European Union. LP and CO are funded by the Wellcome Trust and the Royal Society (grant 202562/Z/16/Z). LP is also supported by the UKRI through the JUNIPER modelling consortium (grant number MR/V038613/1) and by The Alan Turing Institute for Data Science and Artificial Intelligence. HBS is funded by the Wellcome Trust and Royal Society (202562/Z/16/Z), and the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation. DV had support from the National Council for Scientific and Technological Development of Brazil (CNPq - Refs. 441057/2020-9, 424141/2018-3, 309569/2019-2). FS is supported by the UKRI through the JUNIPER modelling consortium (grant number MR/V038613/1). EF is supported by UKRI (Medical Research Council)/Department of Health and Social Care (National Insitute of Health Research) MR/V028618/1. JPG's work was supported by funding from the UK Health Security Agency and the UK Department of Health and Social Care.Mathematical modelling and statistical inference provide a framework to evaluate different non-pharmaceutical and pharmaceutical interventions for the control of epidemics that has been widely used during the COVID-19 pandemic. In this paper, lessons learned from this and previous epidemics are used to highlight the challenges for future pandemic control. We consider the availability and use of data, as well as the need for correct parameterisation and calibration for different model frameworks. We discuss challenges that arise in describing and distinguishing between different interventions, within different modelling structures, and allowing both within and between host dynamics. We also highlight challenges in modelling the health economic and political aspects of interventions. Given the diversity of these challenges, a broad variety of interdisciplinary expertise is needed to address them, combining mathematical knowledge with biological and social insights, and including health economics and communication skills. Addressing these challenges for the future requires strong cross-disciplinary collaboration together with close communication between scientists and policy makers.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

A functional siRNA screen identifies genes modulating angiotensin II-mediated EGFR transactivation

The angiotensin type 1 receptor (AT1R) transactivates the epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) to mediate cellular growth, however, the molecular mechanisms involved have not yet been resolved. To address this, we performed a functional siRNA screen of the human kinome in human mammary epithelial cells that demonstrate a robust AT1R-EGFR transactivation. We identified a suite of genes encoding proteins that both positively and negatively regulate AT1R-EGFR transactivation. Many candidates are components of EGFR signalling networks, whereas others, including TRIO, BMX and CHKA, have not been previously linked to EGFR transactivation. Individual knockdown of TRIO, BMX or CHKA attenuated tyrosine phosphorylation of the EGFR by angiotensin II stimulation, but this did not occur following direct stimulation of the EGFR with EGF, indicating that these proteins function between the activated AT1R and the EGFR. Further investigation of TRIO and CHKA revealed that their activity is likely to be required for AT1R-EGFR transactivation. CHKA also mediated EGFR transactivation in response to another G protein-coupled receptor (GPCR) ligand, thrombin, indicating a pervasive role for CHKA in GPCR-EGFR crosstalk. Our study reveals the power of unbiased, functional genomic screens to identify new signalling mediators important for tissue remodelling in cardiovascular disease and cancer.This work was supported by the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council project grants [grant numbers 472640, 1024726 to W.G.T. and R.D.H]; and a project grant awarded to R.D.H, funded in Australia by the Captain Courageous Foundation (http://www.captaincourageousfoundation.com). R.D.H also holds an NHMRC senior research fellowship [grant number 1022402]