Probabilistic Analysis of Earthquake-Induced Pool Release

Wappapello Dam was constructed in 1938 near the New Madrid seismic region. Loose sands in the dam foundation led to concern for liquefaction and embankment sliding if a large earthquake were to occur. However it was also recognized that the operation of the dam for flood control results in relatively low reservoir levels the majority of the time, substantially reducing the risk of earthquake-induced flooding. Because of these factors, a probabilistic analysis was performed to assess the likelihood of the combination of required events leading to an earthquake-induced pool release. Results of such analyses provide better information on which to make both quantitative and qualitative judgements regarding remedial action

Zonation of Central U. S. Earthquake Sources

A variety of analyses are utilized in developing potential earthquake ground shaking at a specific location. Geological procedures for estimating causes of earthquakes are fundamental to the prediction of ground motions. Evaluations of geologic factors compliment mathematical assessments of seismological data. Earthquake potential in the Central United States is predicted using the concept of seismic source zones due to the difficulty of determining active faults. Resolution of these geographic source zones is dependent upon knowledge of historic seismicity, pertinent geologic features, and causative tectonics. Regardless of the method used to delineate source zones, these zones must be geologically and seismologically unique. Statistical testing of historic earthquake catalogues is required for reduction of the data base. The resolution of zones is an iterative process of bounding the zones and determining recurrence rates. Earthquake potential and risk assessment should be understood by the owner and the designer of a facility

St. Louis Area Earthquake Hazards Mapping Project: Seismic and Liquefaction Hazard Maps

We present probabilistic and deterministic seismic and liquefaction hazard maps for the densely populated St. Louis metropolitan area that account for the expected effects of surficial geology on earthquake ground shaking. Hazard calculations were based on a map grid of 0.005°, or about every 500 m, and are thus higher in resolution than any earlier studies. To estimate ground motions at the surface of the model (e.g., site amplification), we used a new detailed near-surface shear-wave velocity model in a 1D equivalent- linear response analysis. When compared with the 2014 U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Seismic Hazard Model, which uses a uniform firm-rock-site condition, the new probabilistic seismic-hazard estimates document much more variability. Hazard levels for upland sites (consisting of bedrock and weathered bedrock overlain by loess-covered till and drift deposits), show up to twice the ground-motion values for peak ground acceleration (PGA), and similar ground-motion values for 1.0 s spectral acceleration (SA). Probabilistic ground-motion levels for lowland alluvial floodplain sites (generally the 20-40-m-thick modern Mississippi and Missouri River floodplain deposits overlying bedrock) exhibit up to twice the ground-motion levels for PGA, and up to three times the ground-motion levels for 1.0 s SA. Liquefaction probability curves were developed from available standard penetration test data assuming typical lowland and upland water table levels. A simplified liquefaction hazard map was created from the 5%-in-50-year probabilistic ground-shaking model. The liquefaction hazard ranges from low (\u3c40% of area expected to liquefy) in the uplands to severe (\u3e60% of area expected to liquefy) in the lowlands. Because many transportation routes, power and gas transmission lines, and population centers exist in or on the highly susceptible lowland alluvium, these areas in the St. Louis region are at significant potential risk from seismically induced liquefaction and associated ground deformation

Effect of Intraduodenal Bile and Na-Taurodeoxycholate on Exocrine Pancreatic Secretion and on Plasma Levels of Secretin, Pancreatic Polypeptide, and Gastrin in Man

The effect of intraduodenally administered cattle bile (CB) and Na-taurodeoxycholate (TDC) on basal pancreatic secretion and plasma levels of secretin, pancreatic polypeptide (PP), and gastrin were investigated on two separate days in 10 fasting volunteers. Doses of 2-6 g CB and 20&600 mg TDC were given intraduodenally at 65-min intervals. Volume, bicarbonate, lipase, trypsin, amylase, and bilirubin were measured in 10-min fractions of duodenal juice, and GI peptides determined by radioimmunoassay. CB and TDC enhanced significantly and dose-dependently volume, bicarbonate and enzyme secretion, and plasma secretin and PP levels. In contrast, plasma gastrin showed only a marginal increase. We conclude that the hydrokinetic effect of intraduodenal CB and TDC is at least partially mediated by secretin. Gastrin could be ruled out as a mediator of the ecbolic effect, whereas other GI peptides, primarily CCK, and/or neural mechanisms must be considered possible mediators. Both pathways may also play a role in the PP release

Evaluation of public and animal health risks in case of a delayed post-mortem inspection in ungulates

The potential effects of a 24 or 72-h delay in post-mortem inspection (PMI) of ungulates on public health and monitoring of animal health and welfare was evaluated. The assessment used a survey of meat inspectors, expert opinion, literature search and a stochastic model for Salmonella detection sensitivity. Disease detection sensitivity at a delayed PMI is expected to reduce detection sensitivity to a variable extent, depending on the hazard and on the signs/lesions and organs involved. No reduction is expected for Trichinella detection in meat from susceptible animal species and any decrease in detection of transmissible spongiform encephalopathies (TSEs) will not exceed the current tolerance for fallen stock. A 24-h delay in PMI could result in a small reduction in sensitivity of detection for tuberculosis, echinococcosis and cysticercosis. A greater reduction is expected for the detection of pyaemia and Rift valley fever. For the detection of Salmonella, the median model estimates are a reduction of sensitivity of 66.5% (90% probability interval (PI) 0.08–99.75%) after 24-h delay and 94% (90% PI 0.83–100%) after 72-h delay of PMI. Laboratory testing for tuberculosis following a sampling delay of 24–72 h could result in no, or a moderate, decrease in detection depending on the method of confirmation used (PCR, culture, histopathology). For chemical contaminants, a delay in meat inspection of 24 or 72 h is expected to have no impact on the effectiveness of detection of persistent organic pollutants and metals. However, for certain pharmacologically active substances, there will be a reduced effectiveness to detect some of these substances due to potential degradation in the available matrices (tissues and organs) and the non-availability of specific preferred matrices of choice

Public health risks associated with food‐borne parasites

Parasites are important food-borne pathogens. Their complex lifecycles, varied transmission routes, and prolonged periods between infection and symptoms mean that the public health burden and relative importance of different transmission routes are often difficult to assess. Furthermore, there are challenges in detection and diagnostics, and variations in reporting. A Europe-focused ranking exercise, using multicriteria decision analysis, identified potentially food-borne parasites of importance, and that are currently not routinely controlled in food. These are Cryptosporidium spp., Toxoplasma gondii and Echinococcus spp. Infection with these parasites in humans and animals, or their occurrence in food, is not notifiable in all Member States. This Opinion reviews current methods for detection, identification and tracing of these parasites in relevant foods, reviews literature on food-borne pathways, examines information on their occurrence and persistence in foods, and investigates possible control measures along the food chain. The differences between these three parasites are substantial, but for all there is a paucity of well-established, standardised, validated methods that can be applied across the range of relevant foods. Furthermore, the prolonged period between infection and clinical symptoms (from several days for Cryptosporidium to years for Echinococcus spp.) means that source attribution studies are very difficult. Nevertheless, our knowledge of the domestic animal lifecycle (involving dogs and livestock) for Echinoccocus granulosus means that this parasite is controllable. For Echinococcus multilocularis, for which the lifecycle involves wildlife (foxes and rodents), control would be expensive and complicated, but could be achieved in targeted areas with sufficient commitment and resources. Quantitative risk assessments have been described for Toxoplasma in meat. However, for T.gondii and Cryptosporidium as faecal contaminants, development of validated detection methods, including survival/infectivity assays and consensus molecular typing protocols, are required for the development of quantitative risk assessments and efficient control measures

Efficacy and safety of acupuncture for chronic pain caused by gonarthrosis: A study protocol of an ongoing multi-centre randomised controlled clinical trial [ISRCTN27450856]

BACKGROUND: Controlled clinical trials produced contradictory results with respect to a specific analgesic effect of acupuncture. There is a lack of large multi-centre acupuncture trials. The German Acupuncture Trial represents the largest multi-centre study of acupuncture in the treatment of chronic pain caused by gonarthrosis up to now. METHODS: 900 patients will be randomised to three treatment arms. One group receives verum acupuncture, the second sham acupuncture, and the third conservative standard therapy. The trial protocol is described with eligibility criteria, detailed information on the treatment definition, blinding, endpoints, safety evaluation, statistical methods, sample size determination, monitoring, legal aspects, and the current status of the trial. DISCUSSION: A critical discussion is given regarding the considerations about standardisation of the acupuncture treatment, the choice of the control group, and the blinding of patients and observers

The role of steroids in the management of brain metastases: a systematic review and evidence-based clinical practice guideline

Do steroids improve neurologic symptoms in patients with metastatic brain tumors compared to no treatment? If steroids are given, what dose should be used? Comparisons include: (1) steroid therapy versus none. (2) comparison of different doses of steroid therapy. Target population These recommendations apply to adults diagnosed with brain metastases. Recommendations Steroid therapy versus no steroid therapy Asymptomatic brain metastases patients without mass effect Insufficient evidence exists to make a treatment recommendation for this clinical scenario. Brain metastases patients with mild symptoms related to mass effect Level 3 Corticosteroids are recommended to provide temporary symptomatic relief of symptoms related to increased intracranial pressure and edema secondary to brain metastases. It is recommended for patients who are symptomatic from metastatic disease to the brain that a starting dose of 4–8 mg/day of dexamethasone be considered. Brain metastases patients with moderate to severe symptoms related to mass effect Level 3 Corticosteroids are recommended to provide temporary symptomatic relief of symptoms related to increased intracranial pressure and edema secondary to brain metastases. If patients exhibit severe symptoms consistent with increased intracranial pressure, it is recommended that higher doses such as 16 mg/day or more be considered. Choice of Steroid Level 3 If corticosteroids are given, dexamethasone is the best drug choice given the available evidence. Duration of Corticosteroid Administration Level 3 Corticosteroids, if given, should be tapered slowly over a 2 week time period, or longer in symptomatic patients, based upon an individualized treatment regimen and a full understanding of the long-term sequelae of corticosteroid therapy. Given the very limited number of studies (two) which met the eligibility criteria for the systematic review, these are the only recommendations that can be offered based on this methodology. Please see “Discussion” and “Summary” section for additional details

Bub1 overexpression induces aneuploidy and tumor formation through Aurora B kinase hyperactivation

Hyperactivated Aurora B kinase is a primary mediator of Bub1 overexpression-induced aneuploidy and tumorigenesis in mice

Specific ion channels contribute to key elements of pathology during secondary degeneration following neurotrauma

Background: Following partial injury to the central nervous system, cells beyond the initial injury site undergo secondary degeneration, exacerbating loss of neurons, compact myelin and function. Changes in Ca 2+ flux are associated with metabolic and structural changes, but it is not yet clear how flux through specific ion channels contributes to the various pathologies. Here, partial optic nerve transection in adult female rats was used to model secondary degeneration. Treatment with combinations of three ion channel inhibitors was used as a tool to investigate which elements of oxidative and structural damage related to long term functional outcomes. The inhibitors employed were the voltage gated Ca 2+ channel inhibitor Lomerizine (Lom), the Ca 2+ permeable AMPA receptor inhibitor YM872 and the P2X 7 receptor inhibitor oxATP. Results: Following partial optic nerve transection, hyper-phosphorylation of Tau and acetylated tubulin immunoreactivity were increased, and Nogo-A immunoreactivity was decreased, indicating that axonal changes occurred acutely. All combinations of ion channel inhibitors reduced hyper-phosphorylation of Tau and increased Nogo-A immunoreactivity at day 3 after injury. However, only Lom/oxATP or all three inhibitors in combination significantly reduced acetylated tubulin immunoreactivity. Most combinations of ion channel inhibitors were effective in restoring the lengths of the paranode and the paranodal gap, indicative of the length of the node of Ranvier, following injury. However, only all three inhibitors in combination restored to normal Ankyrin G length at the node of Ranvier. Similarly, HNE immunoreactivity and loss of oligodendrocyte precursor cells were only limited by treatment with all three ion channel inhibitors in combination. Conclusions: Data indicate that inhibiting any of a range of ion channels preserves certain elements of axon and node structure and limits some oxidative damage following injury, whereas ionic flux through all three channels must be inhibited to prevent lipid peroxidation and preserve Ankyrin G distribution and OPCs