Uncertainties in tidally adjusted estimates of sea level rise flooding (bathtub model) for the Greater London

Sea-level rise (SLR) from global warming may have severe consequences for coastal cities, particularly when combined with predicted increases in the strength of tidal surges. Predicting the regional impact of SLR flooding is strongly dependent on the modelling approach and accuracy of topographic data. Here, the areas under risk of sea water flooding for London boroughs were quantified based on the projected SLR scenarios reported in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) fifth assessment report (AR5) and UK climatic projections 2009 (UKCP09) using a tidally-adjusted bathtub modelling approach. Medium- to very high-resolution digital elevation models (DEMs) are used to evaluate inundation extents as well as uncertainties. Depending on the SLR scenario and DEMs used, it is estimated that 3%–8% of the area of Greater London could be inundated by 2100. The boroughs with the largest areas at risk of flooding are Newham, Southwark, and Greenwich. The differences in inundation areas estimated from a digital terrain model and a digital surface model are much greater than the root mean square error differences observed between the two data types, which may be attributed to processing levels. Flood models from SRTM data underestimate the inundation extent, so their results may not be reliable for constructing flood risk maps. This analysis provides a broad-scale estimate of the potential consequences of SLR and uncertainties in the DEM-based bathtub type flood inundation modelling for London boroughs

Influence of ground surface characteristics on the mean radiant temperature in urban areas

The effect of variations in land cover on mean radiant surface temperature (Tmrt) is explored through a simple scheme developed within the radiation model SOLWEIG. Outgoing longwave radiation is parameterised using surface temperature observations on a grass and an asphalt surface, whereas outgoing shortwave radiation is modelled through variations in albedo for the different surfaces. The influence of surface materials on Tmrt is small compared to the effects of shadowing. Nevertheless, altering ground surface materials could contribute to a reduction on Tmrt to reduce the radiant load during heat-wave episodes in locations where shadowing is not an option. Evaluation of the new scheme suggests that despite its simplicity it can simulate the outgoing fluxes well, especially during sunny conditions. However, it underestimates at night and in shadowed locations. One grass surface used to develop the parameterisation, with very different characteristics compared to an evaluation grass site, caused Tmrt to be underestimated. The implications of using high resolution (e.g. 15 minutes) temporal forcing data under partly cloudy conditions are demonstrated even for fairly proximal sites

Anthropogenic Heat Flux Estimation from Space: Results of the first phase of the URBANFLUXES Project

H2020-Space project URBANFLUXES (URBan ANthrpogenic heat FLUX from Earth observation Satellites) investigates the potential of Copernicus Sentinels to retrieve anthropogenic heat flux, as a key component of the Urban Energy Budget (UEB). URBANFLUXES advances the current knowledge of the impacts of UEB fluxes on urban heat island and consequently on energy consumption in cities. This will lead to the development of tools and strategies to mitigate these effects, improving thermal comfort and energy efficiency. In URBANFLUXES, the anthropogenic heat flux is estimated as a residual of UEB. Therefore, the rest UEB components, namely, the net all-wave radiation, the net change in heat storage and the turbulent sensible and latent heat fluxes are independently estimated from Earth Observation (EO), whereas the advection term is included in the error of the anthropogenic heat flux estimation from the UEB closure. The project exploits Sentinels observations, which provide improved data quality, coverage and revisit times and increase the value of EO data for scientific work and future emerging applications. These observations can reveal novel scientific insights for the detection and monitoring of the spatial distribution of the urban energy budget fluxes in cities, thereby generating new EO opportunities. URBANFLUXES thus exploits the European capacity for space-borne observations to enable the development of operational services in the field of urban environmental monitoring and energy efficiency in cities. H2020-Space project URBANFLUXES (URBan ANthrpogenic heat FLUX from Earth observation Satellites)investigates the potential of Copernicus Sentinels to retrieve anthropogenic heat flux, as a key component of the UrbanEnergy Budget (UEB). URBANFLUXES advances the current knowledge of the impacts of UEB fluxes on urban heatisland and consequently on energy consumption in cities. This will lead to the development of tools and strategies tomitigate these effects, improving thermal comfort and energy efficiency. In URBANFLUXES, the anthropogenic heatflux is estimated as a residual of UEB. Therefore, the rest UEB components, namely, the net all-wave radiation, the netchange in heat storage and the turbulent sensible and latent heat fluxes are independently estimated from EarthObservation (EO), whereas the advection term is included in the error of the anthropogenic heat flux estimation from theUEB closure. The project exploits Sentinels observations, which provide improved data quality, coverage and revisittimes and increase the value of EO data for scientific work and future emerging applications. These observations canreveal novel scientific insights for the detection and monitoring of the spatial distribution of the urban energy budgetfluxes in cities, thereby generating new EO opportunities. URBANFLUXES thus exploits the European capacity forspace-borne observations to enable the development of operational services in the field of urban environmentalmonitoring and energy efficiency in cities

Local-scale urban meteorological parameterization scheme (LUMPS): longwave radiation parameterization and seasonality-related developments

Recent developments to the Local-scale Urban Meteorological Parameterization Scheme (LUMPS), a simple model able to simulate the urban energy balance, are presented. The major development is the coupling of LUMPS to the Net All-Wave Radiation Parameterization (NARP). Other enhancements include that the model now accounts for the changing availability of water at the surface, seasonal variations of active vegetation, and the anthropogenic heat flux, while maintaining the need for only commonly available meteorological observations and basic surface characteristics. The incoming component of the longwave radiation (L↓) in NARP is improved through a simple relation derived using cloud cover observations from a ceilometer collected in central London, England. The new L↓ formulation is evaluated with two independent multiyear datasets (Łódź, Poland, and Baltimore, Maryland) and compared with alternatives that include the original NARP and a simpler one using the National Climatic Data Center cloud observation database as input. The performance for the surface energy balance fluxes is assessed using a 2-yr dataset (Łódź). Results have an overall RMSE < 34 W m−2 for all surface energy balance fluxes over the 2-yr period whe

Urban Multi-scale Environmental Predictor (UMEP) : An integrated tool for city-based climate services

UMEP (Urban Multi-scale Environmental Predictor), a city-based climate service tool, combines models and tools essential for climate simulations. Applications are presented to illustrate UMEP's potential in the identification of heat waves and cold waves; the impact of green infrastructure on runoff; the effects of buildings on human thermal stress; solar energy production; and the impact of human activities on heat emissions. UMEP has broad utility for applications related to outdoor thermal comfort, wind, urban energy consumption and climate change mitigation. It includes tools to enable users to input atmospheric and surface data from multiple sources, to characterise the urban environment, to prepare meteorological data for use in cities, to undertake simulations and consider scenarios, and to compare and visualise different combinations of climate indicators. An open-source tool, UMEP is designed to be easily updated as new data and tools are developed, and to be accessible to researchers, decision-makers and practitioners. (C) 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.Peer reviewe

Genetic Control of the Variable Innate Immune Response to Asymptomatic Bacteriuria

The severity of urinary tract infection (UTI) reflects the quality and magnitude of the host response. While strong local and systemic innate immune activation occurs in patients with acute pyelonephritis, the response to asymptomatic bacteriuria (ABU) is low. The immune response repertoire in ABU has not been characterized, due to the inherent problem to distinguish bacterial differences from host-determined variation. In this study, we investigated the host response to ABU and genetic variants affecting innate immune signaling and UTI susceptibility. Patients were subjected to therapeutic urinary tract inoculation with E. coli 83972 to ensure that they were exposed to the same E. coli strain. The innate immune response repertoire was characterized in urine samples, collected from each patient before and after inoculation with bacteria or PBS, if during the placebo arm of the study. Long-term E. coli 83972 ABU was established in 23 participants, who were followed for up to twelve months and the innate immune response was quantified in 233 urine samples. Neutrophil numbers increased in all but two patients and in an extended urine cytokine/chemokine analysis (31 proteins), the chemoattractants IL-8 and GRO-α, RANTES, Eotaxin-1 and MCP-1, the T cell chemoattractant and antibacterial peptide IP-10, inflammatory regulators IL-1-α and sIL-1RA and the T lymphocyte/dendritic cell product sIL-2Rα were detected and variably increased, compared to sterile samples. IL-6, which is associated with symptomatic UTI, remained low and numerous specific immune mediators were not detected. The patients were also genotyped for UTI-associated IRF3 and TLR4 promoter polymorphisms. Patients with ABU associated TLR4 polymorphisms had low neutrophil numbers, IL-6, IP-10, MCP-1 and sIL-2Rα concentrations. Patients with the ABU-associated IRF3 genotype had lower neutrophils, IL-6 and MCP-1 responses than the remaining group. The results suggest that the host-specific, low immune response to ABU mainly includes innate immune mediators and that host genetics directly influence the magnitude of this response

Characterization of the Viral Microbiome in Patients with Severe Lower Respiratory Tract Infections, Using Metagenomic Sequencing

The human respiratory tract is heavily exposed to microorganisms. Viral respiratory tract pathogens, like RSV, influenza and rhinoviruses cause major morbidity and mortality from respiratory tract disease. Furthermore, as viruses have limited means of transmission, viruses that cause pathogenicity in other tissues may be transmitted through the respiratory tract. It is therefore important to chart the human virome in this compartment. We have studied nasopharyngeal aspirate samples submitted to the Karolinska University Laboratory, Stockholm, Sweden from March 2004 to May 2005 for diagnosis of respiratory tract infections. We have used a metagenomic sequencing strategy to characterize viruses, as this provides the most unbiased view of the samples. Virus enrichment followed by 454 sequencing resulted in totally 703,790 reads and 110,931 of these were found to be of viral origin by using an automated classification pipeline. The snapshot of the respiratory tract virome of these 210 patients revealed 39 species and many more strains of viruses. Most of the viral sequences were classified into one of three major families; Paramyxoviridae, Picornaviridae or Orthomyxoviridae. The study also identified one novel type of Rhinovirus C, and identified a number of previously undescribed viral genetic fragments of unknown origin

Evaluation of urban local-scale aerodynamic parameters: implications for the vertical profile of wind speed and for source areas

Nine methods to determine local-scale aerodynamic roughness length (z0) and zero-plane displacement (zd) are compared at three sites (within 60 m of each other) in London, UK. Methods include three anemometric (single-level high frequency observations), six morphometric (surface geometry) and one reference-based approach (look-up tables). A footprint model is used with the morphometric methods in an iterative procedure. The results are insensitive to the initial zd and z0 estimates. Across the three sites, zd varies between 5 – 45 m depending upon the method used. Morphometric methods that incorporate roughness-element height variability agree better with anemometric methods, indicating zd is consistently greater than the local mean building height. Depending upon method and wind direction, z0 varies between 0.1 and 5 m with morphometric z0 consistently being 2 – 3 m larger than the anemometric z0. No morphometric method consistently resembles the anemometric methods. Wind-speed profiles observed with Doppler lidar provide additional data with which to assess the methods. Locally determined roughness parameters are used to extrapolate wind-speed profiles to a height roughly 200 m above the canopy. Wind-speed profiles extrapolated based on morphometric methods that account for roughness-element height variability are most similar to observations. The extent of the modelled source area for measurements varies by up to a factor of three, depending upon the morphometric method used to determine zd and z0