Opinion dynamics with varying susceptibility to persuasion

A long line of work in social psychology has studied variations in people's susceptibility to persuasion -- the extent to which they are willing to modify their opinions on a topic. This body of literature suggests an interesting perspective on theoretical models of opinion formation by interacting parties in a network: in addition to considering interventions that directly modify people's intrinsic opinions, it is also natural to consider interventions that modify people's susceptibility to persuasion. In this work, we adopt a popular model for social opinion dynamics, and we formalize the opinion maximization and minimization problems where interventions happen at the level of susceptibility. We show that modeling interventions at the level of susceptibility lead to an interesting family of new questions in network opinion dynamics. We find that the questions are quite different depending on whether there is an overall budget constraining the number of agents we can target or not. We give a polynomial-time algorithm for finding the optimal target-set to optimize the sum of opinions when there are no budget constraints on the size of the target-set. We show that this problem is NP-hard when there is a budget, and that the objective function is neither submodular nor supermodular. Finally, we propose a heuristic for the budgeted opinion optimization and show its efficacy at finding target-sets that optimize the sum of opinions compared on real world networks, including a Twitter network with real opinion estimates

Hydrological Foundation as a Basis for a Holistic Environmental Flow Assessment of Tropical Highland Rivers in Ethiopia

The sustainable development of water resources includes retaining some amount of the natural flow regime in water bodies to protect and maintain aquatic ecosystem health and the human livelihoods and wellbeing dependent upon them. Although assessment of environmental flows is now occurring globally, limited studies have been carried out in the Ethiopian highlands, especially studies to understand flow-ecological response relationships. This paper establishes a hydrological foundation of Gumara River from an ecological perspective. The data analysis followed three steps: first, determination of the current flow regime flow indices and ecologically relevant flow regime; second, naturalization of the current flow regime looking at how flow regime is changing; and, finally, an initial exploration of flow linkages with ecological processes. Flow data of Gumara River from 1973 to 2018 are used for the analysis. Monthly low flow occurred from December to June; the lowest being in March, with a median flow of 4.0 m(3) s(-1). Monthly high flow occurred from July to November; the highest being in August, with a median flow of 236 m(3) s(-1). 1-Day low flows decreased from 1.55 m(3) s(-1) in 1973 to 0.16 m(3) s(-1) in 2018, and 90-Day (seasonal) low flow decreased from 4.9 m(3) s(-1) in 1973 to 2.04 m(3) s(-1) in 2018. The Mann-Kendall trend test indicated that the decrease in low flow was significant for both durations at alpha = 0.05. A similar trend is indicated for both durations of high flow. The decrease in both low flows and high flows is attributed to the expansion of pump irrigation by 29 km(2) and expansion of plantations, which resulted in an increase of NDVI from 0.25 in 2000 to 0.29 in 2019. In addition, an analysis of environmental flow components revealed that only four "large floods" appeared in the last 46 years; no "large flood" occurred after 1988. Lacking "large floods" which inundate floodplain wetlands has resulted in early disconnection of floodplain wetlands from the river and the lake; which has impacts on breeding and nursery habitat shrinkage for migratory fish species in Lake Tana. On the other hand, the extreme decrease in "low flow" components has impacts on pin smaller pools. These results serve as the hydrological foundation for continued studies in the Gumara catchment, with the eventual goal of quantifying environmental flow requirements.redators, reducing their mobility and ability to access prey concentrate

Robust, reproducible, industrialized, standard membrane feeding assay for assessing the transmission blocking activity of vaccines and drugs against Plasmodium falciparum.

BackgroundA vaccine that interrupts malaria transmission (VIMT) would be a valuable tool for malaria control and elimination. One VIMT approach is to identify sexual erythrocytic and mosquito stage antigens of the malaria parasite that induce immune responses targeted at disrupting parasite development in the mosquito. The standard Plasmodium falciparum membrane-feeding assay (SMFA) is used to assess transmission-blocking activity (TBA) of antibodies against candidate immunogens and of drugs targeting the mosquito stages. To develop its P. falciparum sporozoite (SPZ) products, Sanaria has industrialized the production of P. falciparum-infected Anopheles stephensi mosquitoes, incorporating quantitative analyses of oocyst and P. falciparum SPZ infections as part of the manufacturing process.MethodsThese capabilities were exploited to develop a robust, reliable, consistent SMFA that was used to assess 188 serum samples from animals immunized with the candidate vaccine immunogen, Pfs25, targeting P. falciparum mosquito stages. Seventy-four independent SMFAs were performed. Infection intensity (number of oocysts/mosquito) and infection prevalence (percentage of mosquitoes infected with oocysts) were compared between mosquitoes fed cultured gametocytes plus normal human O(+) serum (negative control), anti-Pfs25 polyclonal antisera (MRA39 or MRA38, at a final dilution in the blood meal of 1:54 as positive control), and test sera from animals immunized with Pfs25 (at a final dilution in the blood meal of 1:9).ResultsSMFA negative controls consistently yielded high infection intensity (mean = 46.1 oocysts/midgut, range of positives 3.7-135.6) and infection prevalence (mean = 94.2%, range 71.4-100.0) and in positive controls, infection intensity was reduced by 81.6% (anti-Pfs25 MRA39) and 97.0% (anti-Pfs25 MRA38), and infection prevalence was reduced by 12.9 and 63.5%, respectively. A range of TBAs was detected among the 188 test samples assayed in duplicate. Consistent administration of infectious gametocytes to mosquitoes within and between assays was achieved, and the TBA of anti-Pfs25 control antibodies was highly reproducible.ConclusionsThese results demonstrate a robust capacity to perform the SMFA in a medium-to-high throughput format, suitable for assessing large numbers of experimental samples of candidate antibodies or drugs

The Association Between Social Networks and Self-rated risk of HIV Infection among Secondary School Students in Moshi Municipality, Tanzania.

Abstract This study describes the social networks of secondary school students in Moshi Municipality, and their association with self-rated risk of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection. A cross-sectional analytical study was conducted among 300 students aged 15-24 years in 5 secondary schools in Moshi, Tanzania. Bonding networks were defined as social groupings of students participating in activities within the school, while bridging networks were groups that included students participating in social groupings from outside of the school environs. A structured questionnaire was used to ask about participation in bonding and bridging social networks and self-rated HIV risk behavior. More participants participated in bonding networks (72%) than in bridging networks (29%). Participation in bridging networks was greater among females (25%) than males (12%, p < .005). Of 300 participants, 88 (29%) were sexually experienced, and of these 62 (70%) considered themselves to be at low risk of HIV infection. Factors associated with self-rated risk of HIV included: type of school (p < .003), family structure (p < .008), being sexually experienced (p < .004), having had sex in the past three months (p < .009), having an extra sexual partner (p < .054) and non-condom use in last sexual intercourse (p < .001), but not the presence or type of social capital. The study found no association between bonding and bridging social networks on self-rated risk of HIV among study participants. However, sexually experienced participants rated themselves at low risk of HIV infection despite practicing unsafe sex. Efforts to raise adolescents' self-awareness of risk of HIV infection through life skills education and HIV/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome risk reduction strategies may be beneficial to students in this at-risk group

Focusing of geodesic congruences in an accelerated expanding Universe

We study the accelerated expansion of the Universe through its consequences on a congruence of geodesics. We make use of the Raychaudhuri equation which describes the evolution of the expansion rate for a congruence of timelike or null geodesics. In particular, we focus on the space-time geometry contribution to this equation. By straightforward calculation from the metric of a Robertson-Walker cosmological model, it follows that in an accelerated expanding Universe the space-time contribution to the Raychaudhuri equation is positive for the fundamental congruence, favoring a non-focusing of the congruence of geodesics. However, the accelerated expansion of the present Universe does not imply a tendency of the fundamental congruence to diverge. It is shown that this is in fact the case for certain congruences of timelike geodesics without vorticity. Therefore, the focusing of geodesics remains feasible in an accelerated expanding Universe. Furthermore, a negative contribution to the Raychaudhuri equation from space-time geometry which is usually interpreted as the manifestation of the attractive character of gravity is restored in an accelerated expanding Robertson-Walker space-time at high speeds.Comment: 11 pages, 2 figures. Final version changed to match published version in JCAP. References updated. Conclusions unchange

Major Intraoperative Complications of Cholecystectomy in a Teaching Hospital, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

Background: Gall stone disease is one of the commonly handled surgical pathologies by a General Surgeon. Major intra operative complications are less commonly encountered in experienced hands. The rate may increase in a teaching hospital where Residents are allowed to operate. Therefore it was with this assumption that a study was carried to assess the incidence and contributing factors for the complications in a tertiary teaching hospital.Methods: A retrospective chart and operation log book review was done in a two -year period between January 2009 and December 2010 in St Paul’s teaching hospital, AA, Ethiopia.Results: A total of 645 cholecystectomy, 588(91.2%) open and 57(8.8%) laparoscopic, were done in the study period. Females comprised 80.9% of the patients. The average age of the patients was 42.8 years with a range of 18 to 80. Major surgical complications were seen in 19(2.9%) patients but adequate information was found for 16 patients only with a retrievalrate of 84.2 %. Of the 16 patients 14(87.5%) were female. Thirteen  patients had open cholecystectomy and the rest 3 patients had  laparoscopic cholecystectomy. Accordingly the rate for open  cholecystectomy was 13/588(2.21%), and that of laparoscopic surgery3/57(5.26%). Twelve (92.3%) of the complicated cases in open   cholecystectomy were done by residents alone. The rate of complications for the consultants in open surgery was 0.2% and that of the residents 6.0%. The odd that patients operated by residents will develop IBDI was 6.25 times higher than that of the seniors. There is statistically significantassociation between seniority and major surgical complications(X2= 11.91, P=0.001).Conclusions: The incidence of major complications of cholecystectomy is unacceptably high in this study. Almost all complications occurred in the hands of residents which show that experience matters. Therefore it is our recommendation that residents should not be left alone until they get reasonable experience in the field

Factors that transformed maize productivity in Ethiopia

Published online: 26 July 2015Maize became increasingly important in the food security of Ethiopia following the major drought and famine that occurred in 1984. More than 9 million smallholder house- holds, more than for any other crop in the country, grow maize in Ethiopia at present. Ethiopia has doubled its maize produc- tivity and production in less than two decades. The yield, currently estimated at >3 metric tons/ha, is the second highest in Sub-Saharan Africa, after South Africa; yield gains for Ethiopia grew at an annual rate of 68 kg/ha between 1990 and 2013, only second to South Africa and greater than Mexico, China, or India. The maize area covered by improved varieties in Ethiopia grew from 14 % in 2004 to 40 % in 2013, and the application rate of mineral fertilizers from 16 to 34 kg/ ha during the same period. Ethiopia ’ s extension worker to farmer ratio is 1:476, compared to 1:1000 for Kenya, 1:1603 for Malawi and 1:2500 for Tanzania. Increased use of im- proved maize varieties and mineral fertilizers, coupled with increased extension services and the absence of devastating droughts are the key factors promoting the accelerated growth in maize productivity in Ethiopia. Ethiopia took a homegrown solutions approach to the research and development of its maize and other commodities. The lesson from Ethiopia ’ s experience with maize is that sustained investment in agricul- tural research and development and policy support by the national government are crucial for continued growth of agricultur

Metabolomics demonstrates divergent responses of two Eucalyptus species to water stress

Past studies of water stress in Eucalyptus spp. generally highlighted the role of fewer than five “important” metabolites, whereas recent metabolomic studies on other genera have shown tens of compounds are affected. There are currently no metabolite profiling data for responses of stress-tolerant species to water stress. We used GC–MS metabolite profiling to examine the response of leaf metabolites to a long (2 month) and severe (Ψpredawn < −2 MPa) water stress in two species of the perennial tree genus Eucalyptus (the mesic Eucalyptus pauciflora and the semi-arid Eucalyptus dumosa). Polar metabolites in leaves were analysed by GC–MS and inorganic ions by capillary electrophoresis. Pressure–volume curves and metabolite measurements showed that water stress led to more negative osmotic potential and increased total osmotically active solutes in leaves of both species. Water stress affected around 30–40% of measured metabolites in E. dumosa and 10–15% in E. pauciflora. There were many metabolites that were affected in E. dumosa but not E. pauciflora, and some that had opposite responses in the two species. For example, in E. dumosa there were increases in five acyclic sugar alcohols and four low-abundance carbohydrates that were unaffected by water stress in E. pauciflora. Re-watering increased osmotic potential and decreased total osmotically active solutes in E. pauciflora, whereas in E. dumosa re-watering led to further decreases in osmotic potential and increases in total osmotically active solutes. This experiment has added several extra dimensions to previous targeted analyses of water stress responses in Eucalyptus, and highlights that even species that are closely related (e.g. congeners) may respond differently to water stress and re-waterin