Black swans, cognition and the power of learning from failure

Failure carries undeniable stigma and is difficult to confront for individuals, teams, and organizations. Disciplines such as commercial and military aviation, medicine, and business have long histories of grappling with it, beginning with the recognition that failure is inevitable in every human endeavor. While conservation may arguably be more complex, conservation professionals can draw upon the research and experience of these other disciplines to institutionalize activities and attitudes that foster learning from failures, whether they are minor setbacks or major disasters. Understanding the role of individual cognitive biases, team psychological safety, and organizational willingness to support critical self-examination all contribute to creating a cultural shift in conservation to one that is open to the learning opportunity that failure provides. This new approach to managing failure is a necessary next step in the evolution of conservation effectiveness. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved

Wildlife collisions with aircraft: A missing component of land-use planning for airports

Projecting risks posed to aviation safety by wildlife populations is often overlooked in airport land-use planning. However, the growing dependency on civil aviation for global commerce can require increases in capacity at airports which affect land use, wildlife populations, and perspectives on aviation safety. Our objectives were to (1) review legislation that affects airports and surrounding communities relative to managing and reducing wildlife hazards to aviation; (2) identify information gaps and future research needs relative to regulated land uses on and near airports, and the effects on wildlife populations; and (3) demonstrate how information regarding wildlife responses to land-use practices can be incorporated into wildlife-strike risk assessments.We show that guidelines for land-use practices on and near airports with regard to wildlife hazards to aviation can be vague, conflicting, and scientifically ill-supported. We discuss research needs with regard to management of storm water runoff; wildlife use of agricultural crops and tillage regimens relative to revenue and safety; the role of an airport in the landscape matrix with regard to its effects on wildlife species richness and abundance; and spatial and temporal requirements of wildlife species that use airports, relative to implementing current and novel management techniques. We also encourage the development and maintenance of data sets that will allow realistic assessment of wildlife-strike risk relative to current airport conditions and anticipated changes to capacity. Land uses at airports influence wildlife populations, and understanding and incorporating these effects into planning will reduce risks posed to both aviation safety and wildlife species

Biodiversidade de Sphingidae (Lepidoptera) nos biomas brasileiros, padrões de atividade temporal diária e áreas prioritárias para conservação de Sphingidae e Saturniidae no Cerrado

Dissertação (mestrado)—Universidade de Brasília, Instituto de Ciências Biológicas, Departamento de Ecologia, Programa de Pós-Graduação em Ecologia, 2017.Mariposas representam aproximadamente 12% de toda a fauna terrestre vivente. As famílias Sphingidae e Saturniidae são importantes indicadores da qualidade ambiental e respondem rapidamente às alterações no habitat. O conhecimento da composição, riqueza, abundância, distribuição e padrões de atividade desses lepidópteros nos biomas brasileiros ainda é restrito. Este estudo buscou elaborar um panorama da biodiversidade e distribuição de Sphingidae nos biomas brasileiros, caracterizar padrões de atividade diária de Sphingidae e Saturniidae no Cerrado e identificar áreas prioritárias para conservação dessas famílias nesse Bioma. Análises de registros de ocorrência levantados de dados secundários e de levantamentos populacionais realizados nos Parque Nacionais Chapada dos Veadeiros, Diamantina e em Rio Pardo de Minas-MG revelaram que: a Mata Atlântica e a Amazônia são os biomas com maior riqueza e número de espécies endêmicas de Sphingidae, seguidos do Cerrado e Caatinga, cujos padrões de riqueza são influenciados por variáveis abióticas; há um alto grau de compartilhamento de espécies entre os biomas brasileiros, onde as matas de galeria do Cerrado e brejos de altitude da Caatinga podem ser as principais vias de dispersão entre a Amazônia e Mata Atlântica; a esfingofauna do Pantanal é praticamente desconhecida; em mais de 95% das UCs ainda não foram realizados levantamentos de Sphingidae; os padrões de atividade diária de assembleias de Sphingidae e Saturniidae ocorrem em horários sobrepostos e deslocados para o final da noite, sendo uma possível estratégia anti-predação; as áreas prioritárias para conservação de Sphingidae e Saturniidae no Cerrado encontram-se em regiões atualmente fragmentadas e com alto risco de fragmentação; 83% das áreas prioritárias para conservação ainda não estão protegidas; 62,5% das áreas prioritárias não estão atualmente contempladas nas prioridades de proteção para o Cerrado, colocando em risco a conservação desta enorme biodiversidade. Estes resultados podem orientar novos levantamentos populacionais e futuras ações de conservação destes lepidópteros.The Sphingidae and Saturniidae families are important indicators of environmental quality and respond quickly to changes in habitat. Knowledge on composition, richness, abundance, distribution and activity patterns of these Lepidoptera in Brazilian biomes is still limited. This study aimed to elaborate an outlook of the biodiversity and distribution of Sphingidae in Brazilian biomes, characterize patterns of daily activity of Sphingidae and Saturniidae in the Cerrado and identify priority areas for conservation of these families in this biome. Analyses of occurrence records collected from secondary data and population surveys carried out in Chapada dos Veadeiros and Chapada Diamantina National Parks, as well as in Rio Pardo de Minas-MG revealed that: the Atlantic and Amazon forests are the richest biomes with the highest number of endemic species of Sphingidae, followed by the Cerrado and Caatinga, from which patterns of richness are influenced by abiotic variables; There is a high degree of species sharing among the Brazilian biomes, where the Cerrado gallery forests and Caatinga highland marshes may be the main dispersion paths between the Amazon and the Atlantic Forest; The sphingofauna of the Pantanal is practically unknown; Sphingidae have not been surveyed in more than 95% of Brazilian conservation units; The diel activity patterns in Sphingidae and Saturniidae assemblages occur at overlapping and displaced schedules towards the end of the night, that being a possible anti- predation strategy; The priority areas for conservation of Sphingidae and Saturniidae in the Cerrado are located in highly fragmented regions and at high risk of further fragmentation; 83% of priority areas for conservation are not yet protected; 62,5% of the priority areas are not currently included in the protection priorities for the Cerrado, which endangers the conservation of this enormous biodiversity. These results may guide new population surveys and future conservation actions for these Lepidoptera

Importância das fitofisionomias e estações climáticas na distribuição espacial e temporal de mariposas noturnas (Lepidoptera : Arctiinae, Saturniidae e Sphingidae) no Parque Estadual dos Pireneus, GO.

Tese (doutorado)—Universidade de Brasília, Programa de Pós-Graduação em Ecologia, 2014.Mariposas são indicadoras da qualidade de habitat e respondem às perturbações antrópicas, ao tipo de vegetação e aos processos sucessionais. No bioma Cerrado, pouco se conhece sobre a distribuição das espécies de mariposas em diferentes fitofisionomias e suas variações sazonais. Sendo assim, o presente estudo teve como principal objetivo descrever os padrões de distribuição espacial e temporal de três táxons de mariposas (Erebidae [Arctiinae], Saturniidae e Sphingidae), que diferem em suas ecologias e histórias de vida. O estudo foi desenvolvido em uma área de Cerrado localizada no Parque Estadual dos Pireneus (PEP), GO. Primeiramente verificou-se o efeito das fitofisionomias na estruturação da diversidade alfa e beta de mariposas, utilizando a análise de partição aditiva hierárquica. Em seguida foram descritos os padrões de distribuição espacial e temporal, para cada táxon separadamente, nas fitofisionomias e estações climáticas caraterísticas do bioma Cerrado. Foram capturados 4.854 indivíduos pertencentes a 340 espécies de mariposas. Destas, 2.184 indivíduos de 199 espécies correspondeu à subfamília Arctiinae, 2.197 indivíduos de 93 espécies aos saturniídeos e 473 indivíduos de 48 espécies aos esfingídeos. A partição da diversidade das mariposas noturnas do PEP indicou claramente que as fitofisionomias constituem a escala espacial mais importante na determinação da composição da comunidade. A partição aditiva apresentou, ainda, resultados distintos para cada grupo taxonômico, indicando que as famílias de mariposas respondem diferentemente ao efeito da heterogeneidade de habitat. Os padrões de distribuição espacial e temporal diferiram entre os táxons estudados. Para Arctiinae (Erebidae) a distribuição temporal da abundância observada diferiu entre as fitofisionomias, e as fitofisionomias e estações climáticas influenciaram a estruturação da composição de espécies. Para estas mariposas a mata semidecídua, aparentemente, funciona como um refúgio durante a estação seca. A distribuição temporal da abundância observada das espécies de Saturniidae foi agrupada na estação chuvosa e não diferiu entre as fitofisionomias, no entanto, a composição de espécies diferiu entre as fitofisionomias e estações climáticas. Enquanto a família Sphingidae apresentou sazonalidade, ocorrendo principalmente na estação chuvosa, mas a distribuição temporal da abundância observada diferiu entre as fitofisionomias. Não houve um efeito significativo das fitofisionomias e estações climáticas na estruturação da composição de espécies destas mariposas. As diferenças observadas nos padrões de distribuição espacial e temporal entre as famílias de mariposas estudadas no PEP podem ser explicadas pelas diferenças nas suas histórias de vida. __________________________________________________________________________________ ABSTRACTMoths are considered to be bioindicators of habitat quality because they respond to anthropic disturbances, to vegetation type and successional processes. In the Cerrado biome, little is known regarding the distribution of moth species in vegetation types and their seasonal variations. Therefore, this study had the main objective to describe the spatial and temporal distribution of three taxa of moths (Erebidae [Arctiinae], Saturniidae and Sphingidae), which differ in their ecologies and life histories. This study was carried out in an area of Cerrado within the Parque Estadual dos Pireneus (PEP), GO, Brazil. Firstly, it was verified the effect of the vegetation types in the structure of alpha and beta diversity of moths, using the analysis of hierarchical additive partitioning. Subsequently, were described the temporal and spatial distribution patterns for each taxon, accordingly to vegetation types and seasons. Were captured 4,854 individuals belonging to 340 species of moths, of these, 2,184 individuals of 199 species corresponded to Arctiinae, 2,197 individuals of 93 species to saturniids, and 473 individuals of 48 species to hawkmoths. The additive partitioning of the moth diversity in the PEP clearly indicated that the vegetation types are the most important spatial scale in determining the composition of the community. It also indicated that families of moths respond differently to the effect of habitat heterogeneity. Patterns of spatial and temporal distribution differed among taxa. Temporal distribution of relative abundance of Arctiinae (Erebidae) differed between vegetation types. Vegetation types and seasons influenced the structuring of their species composition. Apparently, the semideciduous forest functions as Arctiinae refuge during the dry season. Temporal distribution of the relative abundance of Saturniidae was grouped in the wet season and did not differ among the vegetation types however, the species composition differed among the vegetation types and seasons. The distribution of Sphingidae was seasonal occurring mainly in the wet season, but the temporal distribution of relative abundance differed among vegetation types. The vegetation types and seasons had not a significant effect in structuring their species composition. The observed differences in the patterns of spatial and temporal distribution among families of moths can be explained by differences in their life histories

Future-proofing conservation: applying systematic conservation planning to prevent extinction under climate and land use change

Humans have been reshaping the environment of Earth for thousands of years. However, the intensity of anthropogenic pressures has rapidly increased in recent decades, pushing an evergreater number of species towards extinction. The primary driver of modern extinctions is habitat loss, while climate change is projected to become the leading cause of biodiversity loss in the future. To mitigate these impacts and reverse these trends, nations have committed to halt the extinction of threatened species by mid-century, and to protect 30% of global land and sea by 2030 (known as the ‘30 by 30’ target). There is now an urgent need to understand how such targets can be achieved in a way that is deliverable, effective, and resilient to future climate and land use change. To answer this question, my thesis considers how systematic conservation planning approaches can optimise conservation interventions both in situ (such as protected area planning) and ex situ (such as conservation of threatened species in zoos). I show that both existing protected areas and current zoo collections must evolve significantly if they are to avoid being outpaced by anthropogenic environmental change. First, I model the impact of climate change on most of the world’s terrestrial vertebrate species (n = 24,598), and identify spatial and phylogenetic shifts in the distribution of threatened biodiversity globally. Using these data, I highlight spatial priorities for area-based conservation, achieving 30 by 30 in a manner that maximises the long-term conservation of threatened evolutionary history under environmental change. I then turn to ex situ conservation in zoos, finding that collections must adapt significantly if they are to conserve the taxa most threatened by climate and land use change. As zoos must house appealing species that drive visitation rates, I then investigate the traits that underpin species attractiveness to zoo visitors, with highly active, visible mammals proving the most attractive. I use these results to highlight opportunities to leverage species appeal and maximise investment in conservation. Finally, I bring this information together and apply, for the first time, conservation optimisation algorithms to zoo collection planning at global and regional scales. Such approaches can increase the protection of threatened evolutionary history by approximately an order of magnitude, both in situ and ex situ, relative to existing protected areas and zoo collections, respectively. These results pose both a challenge and an opportunity to the conservation community, highlighting both the scale of adaptation required, but also the huge potential conservation benefits that could be achieved, even as anthropogenic climate and land use change intensify