The impact of climate change and urban growth on urban climate and heat stress in a subtropical city

Urban residents face increasing risk of heat stress due to the combined impact of climate change and intensification of the urban heat island (UHI) associated with urban growth. Considering the combined effect of urban growth and climate change is vital to understanding how temperatures in urban areas will change in the future. This study investigated the impact of urban growth and climate change on the UHI and heat stress in a subtropical city (Brisbane, Australia) in the present day (1991–2000) and medium term (2041–2050; RCP8.5) during summer. A control and urban growth scenario was used to compare the temperature increase from climate change alone with the temperature increase from climate change and urban growth. Average and minimum temperatures increased more with climate change and urban growth combined than with climate change alone, indicating that if urban growth is ignored, future urban temperatures could be underestimated. Under climate change alone, rural temperatures increased more than urban temperatures, decreasing the effect of the UHI by 0.4 °C at night and increasing the urban cool island by 0.8 °C during the day. With climate change, the number of hot days and nights doubled in urban and rural areas in 2041–2050 as compared to 1991–2000. The number of hot nights was higher in urban areas and with urban growth. Dangerous heat stress, defined as apparent temperature above 40 °C, increased with climate change and occurred on average 1–2 days every summer during 2041–2050, even in shaded conditions. There was higher temperature increases with urban growth and climate change than with climate change alone, indicating that reducing the effect of the UHI is vital to ensuring urban growth does not increase the heat stress risks that urban residents will face in the future

A machine learning assisted development of a model for the populations of convective and stratiform clouds

Traditional parameterizations of the interaction between convection and the environment have relied on an assumption that the slowly-varying large-scale environment is in statistical equilibrium with a large number of small and short-lived convective clouds. They fail to capture non-equilibrium transitions such as the diurnal cycle and theformation of meso-scale convective systems as well asobserved precipitation statisticsand extremes. Informed by analysis of radar observations, cloud-permitting model simulation, theory and machine learning, this work presents a new stochastic cloud population dynamics model for characterizing the interactions between convective and stratiform clouds,with the ultimate goal of informing the representation ofthese interactions in global climate models. 15 wet seasons of precipitating cloud observations by a C-band radar at Darwin, Australia are fed into a machine learning algorithm to obtain transition functions that close a set of coupled equation relating large-scale forcing, mass flux, the convective cell size distribution and the stratiform area. Under realistic large-scale forcing, the derived transition functions show that, on the one hand, interactions with stratiform clouds act to dampen the variability in the size and number of convective cells and therefore in the convective mass flux. On the other hand, for a given convective area fraction, a larger number of smaller cells is more favorable for the growth of stratiform area than a smaller number of larger cells. The combination of these two factors gives rise to solutions with a number of convective cells embedded in a large stratiform area, reminiscent of mesoscale convective systems

Spatial Variation of Extreme Rainfall Observed From Two Century‐Long Datasets

This paper presents the spatial variation of area‐orientated annual maximum daily rainfall (AMDR), represented by well‐fitted generalized extreme value (GEV) distributions, over the last century in Great Britain (GB) and Australia (AU) with respect to three spatial properties: geographic locations, sizes, and shapes of the region‐of‐interest (ROI). The results show that the spatial variation of GEV location‐scale parameters is dominated by geographic locations and area sizes. In GB, there is an eastward‐decreasing banded pattern compared with a concentrically increasing pattern from the middle to coasts in AU. The parameters tend to decrease with increased area sizes in both studied regions. Although the impact of the ROI shapes is insignificant, the round‐shaped regions usually have higher‐valued parameters than the elongated ones. These findings provide a new perspective to understand the heterogeneity of extreme rainfall distribution over space driven by the complex interactions between climate, geographical features, and the practical sampling approaches

The role of tropical-extratropical interaction and synoptic variability in maintaining the South Pacific Convergence Zone in CMIP5 models

The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) is simulated as too zonal a feature in current generation climate models, including those in Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). This zonal bias induces errors in tropical convective heating, with subsequent effects on global circulation. The SPCZ structure, particularly in the subtropics, is governed by the tropical-extratropical interaction between transient synoptic systems and the mean background state. However, the fidelity of synoptic-scale interactions as simulated by CMIP5 models has not yet been evaluated. In this study, analysis of synoptic variability in the simulated subtropical SPCZ reveals that the basic mechanism of tropical-extratropical interaction is generally well simulated, with storms approaching the SPCZ along comparable trajectories to observations. However, there is a broad spread in mean precipitation and its variability across the CMIP5 ensemble. Inter-model spread appears to relate to a biased background state in which the synoptic waves propagate. In particular, the region of mean negative zonal stretching deformation or "storm graveyard" in the upper troposphere?a feature previously determined to play a key role in SPCZ-storm interactions?is typically displaced in CMIP5 models to the northeast of its position in reanalysis data, albeit with individual model graveyards displaying a pronounced (25 degree) longitudinal spread. From these findings, we suggest that SPCZs simulated by CMIP5 models are not simply too zonal; rather, in models the subtropical SPCZ manifests a diagonal tilt similar to observations while SST biases force an overly zonal tropical SPCZ, resulting in a more disjointed SPCZ than observed

Μελέτη επί της τρισδιάστατης απεικόνισης και αυτόματης ανακατασκευής τρισδιάστατων προϊστορικών αγγείων

88 σ.Στην παρούσα διπλωματική εργασία γίνεται, αρχικά, μία αναφορά σε αρχές της θεωρίας των καμπυλών και επιφανειών της διαφορικής γεωμετρίας οι οποίες αποτελούν ένα απαραίτητο μαθηματικό υπόβαθρό της σχετικής προσέγγισης. Δίνεται έμφαση σε βασικές έννοιες, όπως της καμπύλης, της επιφάνειας αλλά και άλλων μεγεθών-εργαλείων που τις συνοδεύουν, ούτως ώστε να γίνει εφικτή η προσέγγιση στο θέμα της αυτόματης ανασυγκρότησης θραυσμάτων. Στην συνέχεια, ακολουθεί περιγραφή της επεξεργασίας, την οποία υπέστησαν τρισδιάστατες απεικονίσεις θραυσμάτων αγγείων, οι οποίες προέρχονται από την τρισδιάστατη σάρωση των πραγματικών θραυσμάτων με τρισδιάστατο σαρωτή. Η παραπάνω επεξεργασία αποτελεί προκαταρκτικό στάδιο για την εφαρμογή μίας νέας μεθόδου η οποία προσφέρει αποτελεσματική λύση στο πρόβλημα της αυτόματης εικονικής ανασυγκρότησης των θραυσμένων αγγείων για την οποία γίνεται αναφορά στη συνέχεια.In this thesis, initially, a report on principles of the theory of curves and surfaces, in differential geometry, takes place. These principles are the mathematical background of this thesis. The understanding of basic concepts such as curve , surface and other sizes–tools which surround them, is emphasized thanks to which the approach to automatic reconstruction of fragments is feasible. Then, follows a description of the processing that was applied in three-dimensional representations of broken vessels. These represantations derived from the three-dimensional scan of the real fragments with three-dimensional scanner. The above process is a preliminary step for the implementation of a new method which is an effective solution to the problem of automatic virtual reconstruction of broken vessels to which reference is made below.Ιωάννης Γ. Κοτζά

Impact of two recent extreme heat episodes on morbidity and mortality in Adelaide, South Australia: a case-series analysis

Extent: 9p.BACKGROUND: Extreme heatwaves occurred in Adelaide, South Australia, in the summers of 2008 and 2009. Both heatwaves were unique in terms of their duration (15 days and 13 days respectively), and the 2009 heatwave was also remarkable in its intensity with a maximum temperature reaching 45.7°C. It is of interest to compare the health impacts of these two unprecedented heatwaves with those of previous heatwaves in Adelaide. METHODS: Using case-series analysis, daily morbidity and mortality rates during heatwaves (≥35°C for three or more days) occurring in 2008 and 2009 and previous heatwaves occurring between 1993 and 2008 were compared with rates during all non-heatwave days (1 October to 31 March). Incidence rate ratios (IRRs) were established for ambulance call-outs, hospital admissions, emergency department presentations and mortality. Dose response effects of heatwave duration and intensity were examined. RESULTS: Ambulance call-outs during the extreme 2008 and 2009 events were increased by 10% and 16% respectively compared to 4.4% during previous heatwaves. Overall increases in hospital and emergency settings were marginal, except for emergency department presentations in 2008, but increases in specific health categories were observed. Renal morbidity in the elderly was increased during both heatwaves. During the 2009 heatwave, direct heat-related admissions increased up to 14-fold compared to a three-fold increase seen during the 2008 event and during previous heatwaves. In 2009, marked increases in ischaemic heart disease were seen in the 15-64 year age group. Only the 2009 heatwave was associated with considerable increases in total mortality that particularly affected the 15-64 year age group (1.37; 95% CI, 1.09, 1.71), while older age groups were unaffected. Significant dose-response relationships were observed for heatwave duration (ambulance, hospital and emergency setting) and intensity (ambulance and mortality). CONCLUSIONS: While only incremental increases in morbidity and mortality above previous findings occurred in 2008, health impacts of the 2009 heatwave stand out. These findings send a signal that the intense and long 2009 heatwave may have exceeded the capacity of the population to cope. It is important that risk factors contributing to the adverse health outcomes are investigated to further improve preventive strategies.Monika Nitschke, Graeme R. Tucker, Alana L. Hansen, Susan Williams, Ying Zhang and Peng B

Marine recreational fishing and the implications of climate change

Marine recreational fishing is popular globally and benefits coastal economies and people's well-being. For some species, it represents a large component of fish landings. Climate change is anticipated to affect recreational fishing in many ways, creating opportunities and challenges. Rising temperatures or changes in storms and waves are expected to impact the availability of fish to recreational fishers, through changes in recruitment, growth and survival. Shifts in distribution are also expected, affecting the location that target species can be caught. Climate change also threatens the safety of fishing. Opportunities may be reduced owing to rougher conditions, and costs may be incurred if gear is lost or damaged in bad weather. However, not all effects are expected to be negative. Where weather conditions change favourably, participation rates could increase, and desirable species may become available in new areas. Drawing on examples from the UK and Australia, we synthesize existing knowledge to develop a conceptual model of climate-driven factors that could impact marine recreational fisheries, in terms of operations, participation and motivation. We uncover the complex pathways of drivers that underpin the recreational sector. Climate changes may have global implications on the behaviour of recreational fishers and on catches and local economies