Ocean biogeochemistry exhibits contrasting responses to a large scale reduction in dust deposition

Dust deposition of iron is thought to be an important control on ocean biogeochemistry and air-sea CO<sub>2</sub> exchange. In this study, we examine the impact of a large scale, yet climatically realistic, reduction in the aeolian Fe input during a 240 year transient simulation. In contrast to previous studies, we find that the ocean biogeochemical cycles of carbon and nitrogen are relatively insensitive (globally) to a 60% reduction in Fe input from dust. Net primary productivity (NPP) is reduced in the Fe limited regions, but the excess macronutrients that result are able to fuel additional NPP elsewhere. Overall, NPP and air-sea CO<sub>2</sub> exchange are only reduced by around 3% between 1860 and 2100. While the nitrogen cycle is perturbed more significantly (by ~15%), reduced N<sub>2</sub> fixation is balanced by a concomitant decline in denitrification. Feedbacks between N<sub>2</sub> fixation and denitrification are controlled by variability in surface utilization of inorganic nitrogen and subsurface oxygen consumption, as well as the direct influence of Fe on N<sub>2</sub> fixation. Overall, there is relatively little impact of reduced aeolian Fe input (<4%) on cumulative CO<sub>2</sub> fluxes over 240 years. The lower sensitivity of our model to changes in dust input is primarily due to the more detailed representation of the continental shelf Fe, which was absent in previous models

Major impact of dust deposition on the productivity of the Arabian Sea

In the Arabian Sea (AS), spatiotemporal nutrient limitation patterns of primary production and the possible role of nutrient inputs from the atmosphere are still not well understood. Using a biogeochemical model forced by modeled aerosol deposition, we show that without high atmospheric iron inputs through dust deposition during the summer monsoon, primary production over the AS would be reduced by half. Atmospheric iron deposition also supports most of the nitrogen fixation over the AS. However, our ocean biogeochemistry modeling results suggest that dinitrogen fixation constitutes a negligible fraction of the primary production. Finally, we show that atmospheric inputs of nitrogen, mostly from anthropogenic activities in India, have a negligible impact on primary production

A global compilation of dissolved iron measurements: focus on distributions and processes in the Southern Ocean

Due to its importance as a limiting nutrient for phytoplankton growth in large regions of the world's oceans, ocean water column observations of concentration of the trace-metal iron (Fe) have increased markedly over recent decades. Here we compile >13 000 global measurements of dissolved Fe (dFe) and make this available to the community. We then conduct a synthesis study focussed on the Southern Ocean, where dFe plays a fundamental role in governing the carbon cycle, using four regions, six basins and five depth intervals as a framework. Our analysis highlights depth-dependent trends in the properties of dFe between different regions and basins. In general, surface dFe is highest in the Atlantic basin and the Antarctic region. While attributing drivers to these patterns is uncertain, inter-basin patterns in surface dFe might be linked to differing degrees of dFe inputs, while variability in biological consumption between regions covaries with the associated surface dFe differences. Opposite to the surface, dFe concentrations at depth are typically higher in the Indian basin and the Subantarctic region. The inter-region trends can be reconciled with similar ligand variability (although only from one cruise), and the inter-basin difference might be explained by differences in hydrothermal inputs suggested by modelling studies (Tagliabue et al., 2010) that await observational confirmation. We find that even in regions where many dFe measurements exist, the processes governing the seasonal evolution of dFe remain enigmatic, suggesting that, aside from broad Subantarctic - Antarctic trends, biological consumption might not be the major driver of dFe variability. This highlights the apparent importance of other processes such as exogenous inputs, physical transport/mixing or dFe recycling processes. Nevertheless, missing measurements during key seasonal transitions make it difficult to better quantify and understand surface water replenishment processes and the seasonal Fe cycle. Finally, we detail the degree of seasonal coverage by region, basin and depth. By synthesising prior measurements, we suggest a role for different processes and highlight key gaps in understanding, which we hope can help structure future research efforts in the Southern Ocean

Emergent constraints on projections of declining primary production in the tropical oceans

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Nature Research via the DOI in this recordMarine primary production is a fundamental component of the Earth system, providing the main source of food and energy to the marine food web, and influencing the concentration of atmospheric CO 2 (refs,). Earth system model (ESM) projections of global marine primary production are highly uncer tain with models projecting both increases and declines of up to 20% by 2100. This uncertainty is predominantly driven by the sensitivity of tropical ocean primary production to climate change, with the latest ESMs suggesting twenty-first-century tropical declines of between 1 and 30% (refs,). Here we identify an emergent relationship between the long-term sensitivity of tropical ocean primary production to rising equatorial zone sea surface temperature (SST) and the interannual sensitivity of primary production to El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-driven SST anomalies. Satellite-based observations of the ENSO sensitivity of tropical primary production are then used to constrain projections of the long-term climate impact on primary production. We estimate that tropical primary production will decline by 3 ± 1% per kelvin increase in equatorial zone SST. Under a business-as-usual emissions scenario this results in an 11 ± 6% decline in tropical marine primary production and a 6 ± 3% decline in global marine primary production by 2100.European Union Horizon 202

Water masses as a unifying framework for understanding the Southern Ocean Carbon Cycle

International audienceThe scientific motivation for this study is to understand the processes in the ocean interior controlling carbon transfer across 30° S. To address this, we have developed a unified framework for understanding the interplay between physical drivers such as buoyancy fluxes and ocean mixing, and carbon-specific processes such as biology, gas exchange and carbon mixing. Given the importance of density in determining the ocean interior structure and circulation, the framework is one that is organized by density and water masses, and it makes combined use of Eulerian and Lagrangian diagnostics. This is achieved through application to a global ice-ocean circulation model and an ocean biogeochemistry model, with both components being part of the widely-used IPSL coupled ocean/atmosphere/carbon cycle model. Our main new result is the dominance of the overturning circulation (identified by water masses) in setting the vertical distribution of carbon transport from the Southern Ocean towards the global ocean. A net contrast emerges between the role of Subantarctic Mode Water (SAMW), associated with large northward transport and ingassing, and Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW), associated with a much smaller export and outgassing. The differences in their export rate reflects differences in their water mass formation processes. For SAMW, two-thirds of the surface waters are provided as a result of the densification of thermocline water (TW), and upon densification this water carries with it a substantial diapycnal flux of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC). For AAIW, principal formatin processes include buoyancy forcing and mixing, with these serving to lighten CDW. An additional important formation pathway of AAIW is through the effect of interior processing (mixing, including cabelling) that serve to densify SAMW. A quantitative evaluation of the contribution of mixing, biology and gas exchange to the DIC evolution per water mass reveals that mixing and, secondarily, gas exchange, effectively nearly balance biology on annual scales (while the latter process can be dominant at seasonal scale). The distribution of DIC in the northward flowing water at 30° S is thus primarily set by the DIC values of the water masses that are involved in the formation processes

Drivers and uncertainties of future global marine primary production in marine ecosystem models

Past model studies have projected a global decrease in marine net primary production (NPP) over the 21st century, but these studies focused on the multi-model mean rather than on the large inter-model differences. Here, we analyze model-simulated changes in NPP for the 21st century under IPCC's high-emission scenario RCP8.5. We use a suite of nine coupled carbon–climate Earth system models with embedded marine ecosystem models and focus on the spread between the different models and the underlying reasons. Globally, NPP decreases in five out of the nine models over the course of the 21st century, while three show no significant trend and one even simulates an increase. The largest model spread occurs in the low latitudes (between 30° S and 30° N), with individual models simulating relative changes between −25 and +40 %. Of the seven models diagnosing a net decrease in NPP in the low latitudes, only three simulate this to be a consequence of the classical interpretation, i.e., a stronger nutrient limitation due to increased stratification leading to reduced phytoplankton growth. In the other four, warming-induced increases in phytoplankton growth outbalance the stronger nutrient limitation. However, temperature-driven increases in grazing and other loss processes cause a net decrease in phytoplankton biomass and reduce NPP despite higher growth rates. One model projects a strong increase in NPP in the low latitudes, caused by an intensification of the microbial loop, while NPP in the remaining model changes by less than 0.5 %. While models consistently project increases NPP in the Southern Ocean, the regional inter-model range is also very substantial. In most models, this increase in NPP is driven by temperature, but it is also modulated by changes in light, macronutrients and iron as well as grazing. Overall, current projections of future changes in global marine NPP are subject to large uncertainties and necessitate a dedicated and sustained effort to improve the models and the concepts and data that guide their developmen

DMS atmospheric concentrations and sulphate aerosol indirect radiative forcing: a sensitivity study to the DMS source representation and oxidation

The global sulphur cycle has been simulated using a general circulation model with a focus on the source and oxidation of atmospheric dimethylsulphide (DMS). The sensitivity of atmospheric DMS to the oceanic DMS climatology, the parameterisation of the sea-air transfer and to the oxidant fields have been studied. The importance of additional oxidation pathways (by O₃ in the gas- and aqueous-phases and by BrO in the gas phase) not incorporated in global models has also been evaluated. While three different climatologies of the oceanic DMS concentration produce rather similar global DMS fluxes to the atmosphere at 24-27 Tg S yr ^-1, there are large differences in the spatial and seasonal distribution. The relative contributions of OH and NO₃ radicals to DMS oxidation depends critically on which oxidant fields are prescribed in the model. Oxidation by O₃ appears to be significant at high latitudes in both hemispheres. Oxidation by BrO could be significant even for BrO concentrations at sub-pptv levels in the marine boundary layer. The impact of such refinements on the DMS chemistry onto the indirect radiative forcing by anthropogenic sulphate aerosols is also discussed

Preformed and regenerated phosphate in ocean general circulation models: can right total concentrations be wrong?

Phosphate distributions simulated by seven state-of-the-art biogeochemical ocean circulation models are evaluated against observations of global ocean nutrient distributions. The biogeochemical models exhibit different structural complexities, ranging from simple nutrient-restoring to multi-nutrient NPZD type models. We evaluate the simulations using the observed volume distribution of phosphate. The errors in these simulated volume class distributions are significantly larger when preformed phosphate (or regenerated phosphate) rather than total phosphate is considered. Our analysis reveals that models can achieve similarly good fits to observed total phosphate distributions for a very different partitioning into preformed and regenerated nutrient components. This has implications for the strength and potential climate sensitivity of the simulated biological carbon pump. We suggest complementing the use of total nutrient distributions for assessing model skill by an evaluation of the respective preformed and regenerated nutrient components

Inconsistent strategies to spin up models in CMIP5: Implications for ocean biogeochemical model performance assessment

This is the final version of the article. Available from EGU via the DOI in this record.During the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) substantial efforts were made to systematically assess the skill of Earth system models. One goal was to check how realistically representative marine biogeochemical tracer distributions could be reproduced by models. In routine assessments model historical hindcasts were compared with available modern biogeochemical observations. However, these assessments considered neither how close modeled biogeochemical reservoirs were to equilibrium nor the sensitivity of model performance to initial conditions or to the spin-up protocols. Here, we explore how the large diversity in spin-up protocols used for marine biogeochemistry in CMIP5 Earth system models (ESMs) contributes to model-to-model differences in the simulated fields. We take advantage of a 500-year spin-up simulation of IPSL-CM5A-LR to quantify the influence of the spin-up protocol on model ability to reproduce relevant data fields. Amplification of biases in selected biogeochemical fields (O2, NO3, Alk-DIC) is assessed as a function of spin-up duration. We demonstrate that a relationship between spin-up duration and assessment metrics emerges from our model results and holds when confronted with a larger ensemble of CMIP5 models. This shows that drift has implications for performance assessment in addition to possibly aliasing estimates of climate change impact. Our study suggests that differences in spin-up protocols could explain a substantial part of model disparities, constituting a source of model-to-model uncertainty. This requires more attention in future model intercomparison exercises in order to provide quantitatively more correct ESM results on marine biogeochemistry and carbon cycle feedbacks.We sincerely thank I. Kriest, F. Joos, the anonymous reviewer and A. Yool for their useful comments on this paper. This work was supported by H2020 project CRESCENDO “Coordinated Research in Earth Systems and Climate: Experiments, kNowledge, Dissemination and Outreach”, which received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement no. 641816 and by the EU FP7 project CARBOCHANGE “Changes in carbon uptake and emissions by oceans in a changing climate” which received funding from the European community’s Seventh Framework Programme under grant agreement no. 264879. Supercomputing time was provided by GENCI (Grand Equipement National de Calcul Intensif) at CCRT (Centre de Calcul Recherche et Technologie), allocation 016178. Finally, we are grateful to the ESGF project which makes data available for all the community. Roland Séférian is grateful to Aurélien Ribes for his kind advices on statistics. Jerry Tjiputra acknowledges ORGANIC project (239965/F20) funded by the Research Council of Norway. Christoph Heinze and Jerry Tjiputra are grateful for support through project EVA – Earth system modelling of climate variations in the Anthropocene (229771/E10) funded by the Research Council of Norway, as well as CPU-time and mass storage provided through NOTUR project NN2345K as well as NorStore project NS2345K. Keith Lindsay and Scott C. Doney acknowledge support from the National Science Foundation