Cognitive decline in dementia with Lewy bodies: a 5-year prospective cohort study

OBJECTIVES: We report the cognitive decline in persons diagnosed with mild dementia with Lewy bodies (DLB) and mild Alzheimer's disease (AD) during 5 years of annual follow-ups. METHODS: Patients were recruited into the study from geriatric, psychiatric and neurology clinics in Western Norway during 2005–2013. They were diagnosed according to clinical consensus criteria, based on standardised clinical rating scales. Autopsy-based diagnoses were available for 20 cases. Cognitive decline for up to 5 years was assessed using the Clinical Dementia Rating (CDR) scale and the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE). Survival analysis including Cox regression (time to reach severe dementia) and linear mixed-effects (lme) modelling were used to model the decline on MMSE. RESULTS: At least one follow-up assessment was available for 67 patients with DLB and 107 patients with AD, with a median follow-up time of 4.3 years. The time to reach severe dementia was significantly shorter in DLB (median 1793 days) compared with AD (1947 days; p=0.033), and the difference remained significant in the multiple Cox regression analysis (HR=2.0, p<0.02). In the adjusted lme model, MMSE decline was faster in DLB (annual decline 4.4 points) compared with AD (3.2 points; p<0.008). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings show that from the mild dementia stage, patients with DLB have a more rapid cognitive decline than in AD. Such prognostic information is vital for patients and families and crucial for planning clinical trials and enabling health economic modelling

Buffering effects of soil seed banks on plant community composition in response to land use and climate

Aim Climate and land use are key determinants of biodiversity, with past and ongoing changes posing serious threats to global ecosystems. Unlike most other organism groups, plant species can possess dormant life‐history stages such as soil seed banks, which may help plant communities to resist or at least postpone the detrimental impact of global changes. This study investigates the potential for soil seed banks to achieve this. Location Europe. Time period 1978–2014. Major taxa studied Flowering plants. Methods Using a space‐for‐time/warming approach, we study plant species richness and composition in the herb layer and the soil seed bank in 2,796 community plots from 54 datasets in managed grasslands, forests and intermediate, successional habitats across a climate gradient. Results Soil seed banks held more species than the herb layer, being compositionally similar across habitats. Species richness was lower in forests and successional habitats compared to grasslands, with annual temperature range more important than mean annual temperature for determining richness. Climate and land‐use effects were generally less pronounced when plant community richness included seed bank species richness, while there was no clear effect of land use and climate on compositional similarity between the seed bank and the herb layer. Main conclusions High seed bank diversity and compositional similarity between the herb layer and seed bank plant communities may provide a potentially important functional buffer against the impact of ongoing environmental changes on plant communities. This capacity could, however, be threatened by climate warming. Dormant life‐history stages can therefore be important sources of diversity in changing environments, potentially underpinning already observed time‐lags in plant community responses to global change. However, as soil seed banks themselves appear, albeit less, vulnerable to the same changes, their potential to buffer change can only be temporary, and major community shifts may still be expected

More warm‐adapted species in soil seed banks than in herb layer plant communities across Europe

Responses to climate change have often been found to lag behind the rate of warming that has occurred. In addition to dispersal limitation potentially restricting spread at leading range margins, the persistence of species in new and unsuitable conditions is thought to be responsible for apparent time-lags. Soil seed banks can allow plant communities to temporarily buffer unsuitable environmental conditions, but their potential to slow responses to long-term climate change is largely unknown. As local forest cover can also buffer the effects of a warming climate, it is important to understand how seed banks might interact with land cover to mediate community responses to climate change. We first related species-level seed bank persistence and distribution-derived climatic niches for 840 plant species. We then used a database of plant community data from grasslands, forests and intermediate successional habitats from across Europe to investigate relationships between seed banks and their corresponding herb layers in 2763 plots in the context of climate and land cover. We found that species from warmer climates and with broader distributions are more likely to have a higher seed bank persistence, resulting in seed banks that are composed of species with warmer and broader climatic distributions than their corresponding herb layers. This was consistent across our climatic extent, with larger differences (seed banks from even warmer climates relative to vegetation) found in grasslands. Synthesis. Seed banks have been shown to buffer plant communities through periods of environmental variability, and in a period of climate change might be expected to contain species reflecting past, cooler conditions. Here, we show that persistent seed banks often contain species with relatively warm climatic niches and those with wide climatic ranges. Although these patterns may not be primarily driven by species' climatic adaptations, the prominence of such species in seed banks might still facilitate climate-driven community shifts. Additionally, seed banks may be related to ongoing trends regarding the spread of widespread generalist species into natural habitats, while cool-associated species may be at risk from both short- and long-term climatic variability and change

Xenophobia, the unconscious, the public sphere and Brexit

We examine xenophobia from the perspective of the unconscious of individuals, groups and nations, emphasizing the role of fantasy, and arguing that some leaders use xenophobic discourse to exploit fantasies arising from emotions such as anxiety, fear and anger. We discuss this in the context of the public sphere as conceptualized by Habermas. We illustrate this with reference to an analysis of the psychic life of ‘Brexit’, the UK decision to exit the European Union (EU) in 2016, arguing that Brexit was one expression of the unconscious life of a nation. We contribute to our understanding of xenophobia and the role of psychodynamic forces within the public sphere by highlighting the key role of the unconscious and its ability to be influenced by leaders. We conclude by reflecting on how we might work to counter xenophobia and its fantasies

On residual sums of squares in non-parametric autoregression

By relying on the theory of U-statistics of dependent data, we have given a detailed analysis of the residual sum of squares, RSS, after fitting a nonlinear autoregression using the kernel method. The asymptotic bias of the RSS as an estimator of the noise variance is evaluated up to and including the first order term. A similar quantity, the cross validated residual sum of squares obtained by 'leaving one out' in the fitting is similarly analysed. An asymptotic positive bias is obtained