Adaptive management of infectious disease epidemics

Infectious disease epidemics present a difficult task for policymakers, requiring the implementation of control strategies under significant time constraints and uncertainty. Mathematical models can be used to predict the outcome of control interventions, providing useful information to policymakers in the event of such an epidemic. However, these models suffer in the early stages of an outbreak from a lack of accurate, relevant information regarding the dynamics of spread and the efficacy of control. As such, recommendations provided by these models are often incorporated in an ad hoc fashion, as and when more reliable information becomes available. We propose and motivate the use of adaptive management (AM) as a solution to this problem. AM is an iterative, structured decision making framework, encouraging the incorporation of real-time information, resolution of uncertainty and adaptation of control as an outbreak progresses. We investigate in detail how the AM framework can be applied to the management of epidemics. We clarify the effects, benefits and limitations of certain components, such as the difference between active and passive optimisation and the method used to predict uncertainty resolution. We cover a range of scenarios, exhibiting the value of an AM approach in guiding decisions under uncertainty and providing relevant, clear information to decision makers regarding efficient allocation of control and monitoring resources. We believe the practical implementation of such an approach could greatly improve the outcome of epidemics in the future

Inhibition of Cdc42 during mitotic exit is required for cytokinesis

The role of Cdc42 and its regulation during cytokinesis is not well understood. Using biochemical and imaging approaches in budding yeast, we demonstrate that Cdc42 activation peaks during the G1/S transition and during anaphase but drops during mitotic exit and cytokinesis. Cdc5/Polo kinase is an important upstream cell cycle regulator that suppresses Cdc42 activity. Failure to down-regulate Cdc42 during mitotic exit impairs the normal localization of key cytokinesis regulators—Iqg1 and Inn1—at the division site, and results in an abnormal septum. The effects of Cdc42 hyperactivation are largely mediated by the Cdc42 effector p21-activated kinase Ste20. Inhibition of Cdc42 and related Rho guanosine triphosphatases may be a general feature of cytokinesis in eukaryotes

A network modelling approach to assess non-pharmaceutical disease controls in a worker population : an application to SARS-CoV-2

As part of a concerted pandemic response to protect public health, businesses can enact non-pharmaceutical controls to minimise exposure to pathogens in workplaces and premises open to the public. Amendments to working practices can lead to the amount, duration and/or proximity of interactions being changed, ultimately altering the dynamics of disease spread. These modifications could be specific to the type of business being operated. We use a data-driven approach to parameterise an individual-based network model for transmission of SARS-CoV-2 amongst the working population, stratified into work sectors. The network is comprised of layered contacts to consider the risk of spread in multiple encounter settings (workplaces, households, social and other). We analyse several interventions targeted towards working practices: mandating a fraction of the population to work from home; using temporally asynchronous work patterns; and introducing measures to create ‘COVID-secure’ workplaces. We also assess the general role of adherence to (or effectiveness of) isolation and test and trace measures and demonstrate the impact of all these interventions across a variety of relevant metrics. The progress of the epidemic can be significantly hindered by instructing a significant proportion of the workforce to work from home. Furthermore, if required to be present at the workplace, asynchronous work patterns can help to reduce infections when compared with scenarios where all workers work on the same days, particularly for longer working weeks. When assessing COVID-secure workplace measures, we found that smaller work teams and a greater reduction in transmission risk reduced the probability of large, prolonged outbreaks. Finally, following isolation guidance and engaging with contact tracing without other measures is an effective tool to curb transmission, but is highly sensitive to adherence levels. In the absence of sufficient adherence to non-pharmaceutical interventions, our results indicate a high likelihood of SARS-CoV-2 spreading widely throughout a worker population. Given the heterogeneity of demographic attributes across worker roles, in addition to the individual nature of controls such as contact tracing, we demonstrate the utility of a network model approach to investigate workplace-targeted intervention strategies and the role of test, trace and isolation in tackling disease spread

The impact of school reopening on the spread of COVID-19 in England

By mid-May, cases of COVID-19 in the UK had been declining for over a month; a multi-phase emergence from lockdown was planned, including a scheduled partial reopening of schools on 1st June. Although evidence suggests that children generally display mild symptoms, the size of the school-age population means the total impact of reopening schools is unclear. Here, we present work from mid-May that focused on the imminent opening of schools and consider what these results imply for future policy. We compared eight strategies for reopening primary and secondary schools in England. Modifying a transmission model fitted to UK SARS-CoV-2 data, we assessed how reopening schools affects contact patterns, anticipated secondary infections and the relative change in the reproductive number, R. We determined the associated public health impact and its sensitivity to changes in social-distancing within the wider community. We predicted reopening schools with half-sized classes or focused on younger children was unlikely to push R above one. Older children generally have more social contacts, so reopening secondary schools results in more cases than reopening primary schools, while reopening both could have pushed R above one in some regions. Reductions in community social-distancing were found to outweigh and exacerbate any impacts of reopening. In particular, opening schools when the reproductive number R is already above one generates the largest increase in cases. Our work indicates that while any school reopening will result in increased mixing and infection amongst children and the wider population, reopening schools alone in June was unlikely to push R above one. Ultimately, reopening decisions are a difficult trade-off between epidemiological consequences and the emotional, educational and developmental needs of children. Into the future, there are difficult questions about what controls can be instigated such that schools can remain open if cases increase

Anticipating future learning affects current control decisions : a comparison between passive and active adaptive management in an epidemiological setting

Infectious disease epidemics present a difficult task for policymakers, requiring the implementation of control strategies under significant time constraints and uncertainty. Mathematical models can be used to predict the outcome of control interventions, providing useful information to policymakers in the event of such an epidemic. However, these models suffer in the early stages of an outbreak from a lack of accurate, relevant information regarding the dynamics and spread of the disease and the efficacy of control. As such, recommendations provided by these models are often incorporated in an ad hoc fashion, as and when more reliable information becomes available. In this work, we show that such trial-and-error-type approaches to management, which do not formally take into account the resolution of uncertainty and how control actions affect this, can lead to sub-optimal management outcomes. We compare three approaches to managing a theoretical epidemic: a non-adaptive management (AM) approach that does not use real-time outbreak information to adapt control, a passive AM approach that incorporates real-time information if and when it becomes available, and an active AM approach that explicitly incorporates the future resolution of uncertainty through gathering real-time information into its initial recommendations. The structured framework of active AM encourages the specification of quantifiable objectives, models of system behaviour and possible control and monitoring actions, followed by an iterative learning and control phase that is able to employ complex control optimisations and resolve system uncertainty. The result is a management framework that is able to provide dynamic, long-term projections to help policymakers meet the objectives of management. We investigate in detail the effect of different methods of incorporating up-to-date outbreak information. We find that, even in a highly simplified system, the method of incorporating new data can lead to different results that may influence initial policy decisions, with an active AM approach to management providing better information that can lead to more desirable outcomes from an epidemic

An analysis of school absences in England during the COVID-19 pandemic

Background: The introduction of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19 infection, in the UK in early 2020, resulted in the introduction of several control policies to reduce disease spread. As part of these restrictions, schools were closed to all pupils in March (except for vulnerable and key worker children), before re-opening to certain year groups in June. Finally, all school children returned to the classroom in September. Methods: Here, we analyse data on school absences in late 2020 as a result of COVID-19 infection and how that varied through time as other measures in the community were introduced. We utilise data from the Department for Education Educational Settings database and examine how pupil and teacher absences change in both primary and secondary schools. Results: Our results show that absences as a result of COVID-19 infection rose steadily following the re-opening of schools in September. Cases in teachers declined during the November lockdown, particularly in regions previously in tier 3, the highest level of control at the time. Cases in secondary school pupils increased for the first 2 weeks of the November lockdown, before decreasing. Since the introduction of the tier system, the number of absences with confirmed infection in primary schools was observed to be (markedly) lower than that in secondary schools. In December, we observed a large rise in the number of absences per school in secondary school settings in the South East and London, but such rises were not observed in other regions or in primary school settings. We conjecture that the increased transmissibility of the new variant in these regions may have contributed to this rise in secondary school cases. Finally, we observe a positive correlation between cases in the community and cases in schools in most regions, with weak evidence suggesting that cases in schools lag behind cases in the surrounding community. Conclusions: We conclude that there is no significant evidence to suggest that schools are playing a substantial role in driving spread in the community and that careful monitoring may be required as schools re-open to determine the effect associated with open schools upon community incidence

Optimal health and economic impact of non-pharmaceutical intervention measures prior and post vaccination in England: a mathematical modelling study

AbstractBackgroundEven with good progress on vaccination, SARS-CoV-2 infections in the UK may continue to impose a high burden of disease and therefore pose substantial challenges for health policy decision makers. Stringent government-mandated physical distancing measures (lockdown) have been demonstrated to be epidemiologically effective, but can have both positive and negative economic consequences. The duration and frequency of any intervention policy could, in theory, could be optimised to maximise economic benefits while achieving substantial reductions in disease.MethodsHere we use a pre-existing SARS-CoV-2 transmission model to assess the health and economic implications of different strengths of control through time in order to identify optimal approaches to non-pharmaceutical intervention stringency in the UK, considering the role of vaccination in reducing the need for future physical distancing measures. The model is calibrated to the COVID-19 epidemic in England and we carry out retrospective analysis of the optimal timing of precautionary breaks in 2020 and the optimal relaxation policy from the January 2021 lockdown, considering the willingness to pay for health improvement.ResultsWe find that the precise timing and intensity of interventions is highly dependent upon the objective of control. As intervention measures are relaxed, we predict a resurgence in cases, but the optimal intervention policy can be established dependent upon the willingness to pay (WTP) per QALY loss avoided. Our results show that establishing an optimal level of control can result in a reduction in net monetary loss of billions of pounds, dependent upon the precise WTP value.ConclusionsIt is vital, as the UK emerges from lockdown, but continues to face an on-going pandemic, to accurately establish the overall health and economic costs when making policy decisions. We demonstrate how some of these can be quantified, employing mechanistic infectious disease transmission models to establish optimal levels of control for the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.</jats:sec

Search for Neutral Higgs Bosons in Events with Multiple Bottom Quarks at the Tevatron

The combination of searches performed by the CDF and D0 collaborations at the Fermilab Tevatron Collider for neutral Higgs bosons produced in association with b quarks is reported. The data, corresponding to 2.6 fb-1 of integrated luminosity at CDF and 5.2 fb-1 at D0, have been collected in final states containing three or more b jets. Upper limits are set on the cross section multiplied by the branching ratio varying between 44 pb and 0.7 pb in the Higgs boson mass range 90 to 300 GeV, assuming production of a narrow scalar boson. Significant enhancements to the production of Higgs bosons can be found in theories beyond the standard model, for example in supersymmetry. The results are interpreted as upper limits in the parameter space of the minimal supersymmetric standard model in a benchmark scenario favoring this decay mode.Comment: 10 pages, 2 figure

Lancet commission on hypertension group position statement on the global improvement of accuracy standards for devices that measure blood pressure

The Lancet Commission on Hypertension identified that a key action to address the worldwide burden of high blood pressure (BP) was to improve the quality of BP measurements by using BP devices that have been validated for accuracy. Currently, there are over 3000 commercially available BP devices, but many do not have published data on accuracy testing according to established scientific standards. This problem is enabled through weak or absent regulations that allow clearance of devices for commercial use without formal validation. In addition, new BP technologies have emerged (e.g. cuffless sensors) for which there is no scientific consensus regarding BP measurement accuracy standards. Altogether, these issues contribute to the widespread availability of clinic and home BP devices with limited or uncertain accuracy, leading to inappropriate hypertension diagnosis, management and drug treatment on a global scale. The most significant problems relating to the accuracy of BP devices can be resolved by the regulatory requirement for mandatory independent validation of BP devices according to the universally-accepted International Organisation for Standardization Standard. This is a primary recommendation for which there is an urgent international need. Other key recommendations are development of validation standards specifically for new BP technologies and online lists of accurate devices that are accessible to consumers and health professionals. Recommendations are aligned with WHO policies on medical devices and universal healthcare. Adherence to recommendations would increase the global availability of accurate BP devices and result in better diagnosis and treatment of hypertension, thus decreasing the worldwide burden from high BP