Data-driven and hybrid coastal morphological prediction methods for mesoscale forecasting

It is now common for coastal planning to anticipate changes anywhere from 70 to 100 years into the future. The process models developed and used for scheme design or for large-scale oceanography are currently inadequate for this task. This has prompted the development of a plethora of alternative methods. Some, such as reduced complexity or hybrid models simplify the governing equations retaining processes that are considered to govern observed morphological behaviour. The computational cost of these models is low and they have proven effective in exploring morphodynamic trends and improving our understanding of mesoscale behaviour. One drawback is that there is no generally agreed set of principles on which to make the simplifying assumptions and predictions can vary considerably between models. An alternative approach is data-driven techniques that are based entirely on analysis and extrapolation of observations. Here, we discuss the application of some of the better known and emerging methods in this category to argue that with the increasing availability of observations from coastal monitoring programmes and the development of more sophisticated statistical analysis techniques data-driven models provide a valuable addition to the armoury of methods available for mesoscale prediction. The continuation of established monitoring programmes is paramount, and those that provide contemporaneous records of the driving forces and the shoreline response are the most valuable in this regard. In the second part of the paper we discuss some recent research that combining some of the hybrid techniques with data analysis methods in order to synthesise a more consistent means of predicting mesoscale coastal morphological evolution. While encouraging in certain applications a universally applicable approach has yet to be found. The route to linking different model types is highlighted as a major challenge and requires further research to establish its viability. We argue that key elements of a successful solution will need to account for dependencies between driving parameters, (such as wave height and tide level), and be able to predict step changes in the configuration of coastal systems

Livro didático público paranaense "lingua portuguesa e literatura" : o professor-autor e o gênero discursivo

Orientadora: Profa. Dra. Iara Bemquerer CostaAutor não autorizou a divulgação do arquivo digitalTese (doutorado) - Universidade Federal do Paraná, Setor de Ciências Humanas, Letras e Artes, Programa de Pós-Graduação em Letras. Defesa: Curitiba, 23/04/2012Bibliografia: fls. 163-178Área de concentração :Resumo: Esta pesquisa descritivo-explicativa tem como objetivo averiguar a relacao dialogica entre o Livro Didatico Publico Paranaense \Lingua Portuguesa e Literatura. (LDP-PR) e os livros representantes do genero discursivo Livro Didatico de Lingua Portuguesa (LD-LP). A partir de uma perspectiva socio-historico-discursiva e empregando fontes bibliografica e documental, desenvolvemos esta pesquisa em duas etapas. Na primeira, procuramos efetuar uma reflexao teorica sobre os Generos Discursivos (BAKHTIN) e sobre como a abordagem sociointeracionista se apropria desta concepcao bakhtiniana e discute a questao da didatizacao dos generos (SCHNEUWLY e DOLZ). Na segunda, aplicamos estes pressupostos ao LDP-PR com o intuito de averiguar o encaminhamento didatico dado aos textos de generos discursivos empregados neste material didatico. A partir desta averiguacao do conteudo tematico do LDP-PR, realizada pelo trabalho com as praticas de leitura, escrita e oralidade, buscamos sustentacao para a analise deste LD como um exemplar do genero LD-LP. Nossos resultados mostram que o LDP-PR inova na escolha do conteudo tematico, mas mantem o estilo (marcado pelo emprego de discursos injuntivos, explicativos e expositivos) e a construcao composicional (de textualidade multimodal) tipicos do genero LD-LP. Creditamos a autoria multipla (constituida por professores da rede escolar), marcada pela experiencia reduzida e a merce da Secretaria de Estado da Educacao do Parana (SEED-PR) este apego ao genero consolidado.Abstract: This descriptive-explanatory research aims to investigate the dialogic relationship between the Parana‘s Public Textbook "Portuguese and Literature" (LDP-PR) and the representative books of the discursive genre of Portuguese Textbook (LP-LD). From a socio-historic-discursive perspective and by the use of bibliographical and documentary sources, we developed this research in two stages. In the first one, we carried out a theoretical reflection about the Discursive Genres (BAKHTIN) and how the social interactionist approach appropriates this Bakhtinian concept and discusses the issue of making genre educational (SCHNEUWLY and DOLZ). In the second one, we applied these assumptions to the LDP-PR with the intent of investigating the educational directions given to the texts of discursive genres employed in such a teaching materials. From this investigation of the LDP-PR‘s thematic contents, performed through the work with reading, writing and speaking skills practices, we sought support for the analysis of this LD as an exemplar of the LD-LP genre. Our results reveal that the LDP-PR innovates the choice of the thematic content but retains the style (marked by the use of injunctive, explanatory and expository discourses) and compositional construction (multimodal textuality) that is typical of the LD-LP genre. We attribute to the multiple authorship (made up of teachers from the public educational system), marked by limited experience and at the mercy of the Parana‘s State Department of Education (SEED-PR), this attachment to the consolidated genre

Cold injury, ground type /

Title on additional title page: Medical Department, United States Army in World War II.Mode of access: Internet