Assessing the communication gap between AI models and healthcare professionals: explainability, utility and trust in AI-driven clinical decision-making

This paper contributes with a pragmatic evaluation framework for explainable Machine Learning (ML) models for clinical decision support. The study revealed a more nuanced role for ML explanation models, when these are pragmatically embedded in the clinical context. Despite the general positive attitude of healthcare professionals (HCPs) towards explanations as a safety and trust mechanism, for a significant set of participants there were negative effects associated with confirmation bias, accentuating model over-reliance and increased effort to interact with the model. Also, contradicting one of its main intended functions, standard explanatory models showed limited ability to support a critical understanding of the limitations of the model. However, we found new significant positive effects which repositions the role of explanations within a clinical context: these include reduction of automation bias, addressing ambiguous clinical cases (cases where HCPs were not certain about their decision) and support of less experienced HCPs in the acquisition of new domain knowledge.Comment: supplementary information in the main pd

Genome sequencing with gene panel-based analysis for rare inherited conditions in a publicly funded healthcare system: implications for future testing

Acknowledgements This study would not be possible without the families, patients, clinicians, nurses, research scientists, laboratory staff, informaticians and the wider Scottish Genomes Partnership team to whom we give grateful thanks. This research was made possible through access to the data and findings generated by the 100,000 Genomes Project. The 100,000 Genomes Project is managed by Genomics England Limited (a wholly owned company of the Department of Health). The Scottish Genomes Partnership was funded by the Chief Scientist Office of the Scottish Government Health Directorates (SGP/1) and The Medical Research Council Whole Genome Sequencing for Health and Wealth Initiative (MC/PC/15080). The 100,000 Genomes Project is funded by the National Institute for Health Research and NHS England. The Wellcome Trust, Cancer Research UK and the Medical Research Council have also funded research infrastructure.Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Circulating Biomarkers and Resistance to Endocrine Therapy in Metastatic Breast Cancers: Correlative Results from AZD9496 Oral SERD Phase I Trial.

PURPOSE: Common resistance mechanisms to endocrine therapy (ET) in estrogen receptor (ER)-positive metastatic breast cancers include, among others, ER loss and acquired activating mutations in the ligand-binding domain of the ER gene (ESR1LBDm). ESR1 mutational mediated resistance may be overcome by selective ER degraders (SERD). During the first-in-human study of oral SERD AZD9496, early changes in circulating tumor cells (CTCs) and circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) were explored as potential noninvasive tools, alongside paired tumor biopsies, to assess pharmacodynamics and early efficacy. EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN: CTC were enumerated/phenotyped for ER and Ki67 using CellSearch in serial blood draws. ctDNA was assessed for the most common ESR1LBDm by droplet digital PCR (BioRad). RESULTS: Before starting AZD9496, 11 of 43 (25%) patients had ≥5 CTC/7.5 mL whole blood (WB), none of whom underwent reduction to <5 CTC/7.5 mL WB on C1D15. Five of 11 patients had baseline CTC-ER+, two of whom had CTC-ER+ reduction. CTC-Ki67 status did not change appreciably. Patients with ≥5 CTC/7.5 mL WB before treatment had worse progression-free survival (PFS) than patients with <5 CTC (P = 0.0003). Fourteen of 45 (31%) patients had ESR1LBDm + ctDNA at baseline, five of whom had ≥2 unique mutations. Baseline ESR1LBDm status was not prognostic. Patients with persistently elevated CTC and/or ESR1LBDm + ctDNA at C1D15 had worse PFS than patients who did not (P = 0.0007). CONCLUSIONS: Elevated CTC at baseline was a strong prognostic factor in this cohort. Early on-treatment changes were observed in CTC-ER+ and ESR1LBDm + ctDNA, but not in overall CTC number. Integrating multiple biomarkers in prospective trials may improve outcome prediction and ET resistance mechanisms' identification over a single biomarker

Rucaparib maintenance treatment for recurrent ovarian carcinoma after response to platinum therapy (ARIEL3): a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled, phase 3 trial

Background: Rucaparib, a poly(ADP-ribose) polymerase inhibitor, has anticancer activity in recurrent ovarian carcinoma harbouring a BRCA mutation or high percentage of genome-wide loss of heterozygosity. In this trial we assessed rucaparib versus placebo after response to second-line or later platinum-based chemotherapy in patients with high-grade, recurrent, platinum-sensitive ovarian carcinoma. Methods: In this randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled, phase 3 trial, we recruited patients from 87 hospitals and cancer centres across 11 countries. Eligible patients were aged 18 years or older, had a platinum-sensitive, high-grade serous or endometrioid ovarian, primary peritoneal, or fallopian tube carcinoma, had received at least two previous platinum-based chemotherapy regimens, had achieved complete or partial response to their last platinum-based regimen, had a cancer antigen 125 concentration of less than the upper limit of normal, had a performance status of 0–1, and had adequate organ function. Patients were ineligible if they had symptomatic or untreated central nervous system metastases, had received anticancer therapy 14 days or fewer before starting the study, or had received previous treatment with a poly(ADP-ribose) polymerase inhibitor. We randomly allocated patients 2:1 to receive oral rucaparib 600 mg twice daily or placebo in 28 day cycles using a computer-generated sequence (block size of six, stratified by homologous recombination repair gene mutation status, progression-free interval after the penultimate platinum-based regimen, and best response to the most recent platinum-based regimen). Patients, investigators, site staff, assessors, and the funder were masked to assignments. The primary outcome was investigator-assessed progression-free survival evaluated with use of an ordered step-down procedure for three nested cohorts: patients with BRCA mutations (carcinoma associated with deleterious germline or somatic BRCA mutations), patients with homologous recombination deficiencies (BRCA mutant or BRCA wild-type and high loss of heterozygosity), and the intention-to-treat population, assessed at screening and every 12 weeks thereafter. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01968213; enrolment is complete. Findings: Between April 7, 2014, and July 19, 2016, we randomly allocated 564 patients: 375 (66%) to rucaparib and 189 (34%) to placebo. Median progression-free survival in patients with a BRCA-mutant carcinoma was 16·6 months (95% CI 13·4–22·9; 130 [35%] patients) in the rucaparib group versus 5·4 months (3·4–6·7; 66 [35%] patients) in the placebo group (hazard ratio 0·23 [95% CI 0·16–0·34]; p&lt;0·0001). In patients with a homologous recombination deficient carcinoma (236 [63%] vs 118 [62%]), it was 13·6 months (10·9–16·2) versus 5·4 months (5·1–5·6; 0·32 [0·24–0·42]; p&lt;0·0001). In the intention-to-treat population, it was 10·8 months (8·3–11·4) versus 5·4 months (5·3–5·5; 0·36 [0·30–0·45]; p&lt;0·0001). Treatment-emergent adverse events of grade 3 or higher in the safety population (372 [99%] patients in the rucaparib group vs 189 [100%] in the placebo group) were reported in 209 (56%) patients in the rucaparib group versus 28 (15%) in the placebo group, the most common of which were anaemia or decreased haemoglobin concentration (70 [19%] vs one [1%]) and increased alanine or aspartate aminotransferase concentration (39 [10%] vs none). Interpretation: Across all primary analysis groups, rucaparib significantly improved progression-free survival in patients with platinum-sensitive ovarian cancer who had achieved a response to platinum-based chemotherapy. ARIEL3 provides further evidence that use of a poly(ADP-ribose) polymerase inhibitor in the maintenance treatment setting versus placebo could be considered a new standard of care for women with platinum-sensitive ovarian cancer following a complete or partial response to second-line or later platinum-based chemotherapy. Funding: Clovis Oncology

Serial monitoring of genomic alterations in circulating tumor cells of ER-positive/HER2-negative advanced breast cancer: feasibility of precision oncology biomarker detection.

Nearly all estrogen receptor (ER)-positive (POS) metastatic breast cancers become refractory to endocrine (ET) and other therapies, leading to lethal disease presumably due to evolving genomic alterations. Timely monitoring of the molecular events associated with response/progression by serial tissue biopsies is logistically difficult. Use of liquid biopsies, including circulating tumor cells (CTC) and circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA), might provide highly informative, yet easily obtainable, evidence for better precision oncology care. Although ctDNA profiling has been well investigated, the CTC precision oncology genomic landscape and the advantages it may offer over ctDNA in ER-POS breast cancer remain largely unexplored. Whole-blood (WB) specimens were collected at serial time points from patients with advanced ER-POS/HER2-negative (NEG) advanced breast cancer in a phase I trial of AZD9496, an oral selective ER degrader (SERD) ET. Individual CTC were isolated from WB using tandem CellSearch® /DEPArray™ technologies and genomically profiled by targeted single-cell DNA next-generation sequencing (scNGS). High-quality CTC (n = 123) from 12 patients profiled by scNGS showed 100% concordance with ctDNA detection of driver estrogen receptor α (ESR1) mutations. We developed a novel CTC-based framework for precision medicine actionability reporting (MI-CTCseq) that incorporates novel features, such as clonal predominance and zygosity of targetable alterations, both unambiguously identifiable in CTC compared to ctDNA. Thus, we nominated opportunities for targeted therapies in 73% of patients, directed at alterations in phosphatidylinositol-4,5-bisphosphate 3-kinase catalytic subunit alpha (PIK3CA), fibroblast growth factor receptor 2 (FGFR2), and KIT proto-oncogene, receptor tyrosine kinase (KIT). Intrapatient, inter-CTC genomic heterogeneity was observed, at times between time points, in subclonal alterations. Our analysis suggests that serial monitoring of the CTC genome is feasible and should enable real-time tracking of tumor evolution during progression, permitting more combination precision medicine interventions

Effect of Sub-Lethal Exposure to Ultraviolet Radiation on the Escape Performance of Atlantic Cod Larvae (Gadus morhua)

The amount of ultraviolet (UV) radiation reaching the earth's surface has increased due to depletion of the ozone layer. Several studies have reported that UV radiation reduces survival of fish larvae. However, indirect and sub-lethal impacts of UV radiation on fish behavior have been given little consideration. We observed the escape performance of larval cod (24 dph, SL: 7.6±0.2 mm; 29 dph, SL: 8.2±0.3 mm) that had been exposed to sub-lethal levels of UV radiation vs. unexposed controls. Two predators were used (in separate experiments): two-spotted goby (Gobiusculus flavescens; a suction predator) and lion's mane jellyfish (Cyanea capillata; a “passive" ambush predator). Ten cod larvae were observed in the presence of a predator for 20 minutes using a digital video camera. Trials were replicated 4 times for goby and 5 times for jellyfish. Escape rate (total number of escapes/total number of attacks ×100), escape distance and the number of larvae remaining at the end of the experiment were measured. In the experiment with gobies, in the UV-treated larvae, both escape rate and escape distance (36%, 38±7.5 mm respectively) were significantly lower than those of control larvae (75%, 69±4.7 mm respectively). There was a significant difference in survival as well (UV: 35%, Control: 63%). No apparent escape response was observed, and survival rate was not significantly different, between treatments (UV: 66%, Control: 74%) in the experiment with jellyfish. We conclude that the effect and impact of exposure to sub-lethal levels of UV radiation on the escape performance of cod larvae depends on the type of predator. Our results also suggest that prediction of UV impacts on fish larvae based only on direct effects are underestimations

Rare coding variants and X-linked loci associated with age at menarche.

More than 100 loci have been identified for age at menarche by genome-wide association studies; however, collectively these explain only ∼3% of the trait variance. Here we test two overlooked sources of variation in 192,974 European ancestry women: low-frequency protein-coding variants and X-chromosome variants. Five missense/nonsense variants (in ALMS1/LAMB2/TNRC6A/TACR3/PRKAG1) are associated with age at menarche (minor allele frequencies 0.08-4.6%; effect sizes 0.08-1.25 years per allele; P<5 × 10(-8)). In addition, we identify common X-chromosome loci at IGSF1 (rs762080, P=9.4 × 10(-13)) and FAAH2 (rs5914101, P=4.9 × 10(-10)). Highlighted genes implicate cellular energy homeostasis, post-transcriptional gene silencing and fatty-acid amide signalling. A frequently reported mutation in TACR3 for idiopathic hypogonatrophic hypogonadism (p.W275X) is associated with 1.25-year-later menarche (P=2.8 × 10(-11)), illustrating the utility of population studies to estimate the penetrance of reportedly pathogenic mutations. Collectively, these novel variants explain ∼0.5% variance, indicating that these overlooked sources of variation do not substantially explain the 'missing heritability' of this complex trait.UK sponsors (see article for overseas ones): This work made use of data and samples generated by the 1958 Birth Cohort (NCDS). Access to these resources was enabled via the 58READIE Project funded by Wellcome Trust and Medical Research Council (grant numbers WT095219MA and G1001799). A full list of the financial, institutional and personal contributions to the development of the 1958 Birth Cohort Biomedical resource is available at http://www2.le.ac.uk/projects/birthcohort. Genotyping was undertaken as part of the Wellcome Trust Case-Control Consortium (WTCCC) under Wellcome Trust award 076113, and a full list of the investigators who contributed to the generation of the data is available at www.wtccc.org.uk ... The Fenland Study is funded by the Wellcome Trust and the Medical Research Council, as well as by the Support for Science Funding programme and CamStrad. ... SIBS - CRUK ref: C1287/A8459 SEARCH - CRUK ref: A490/A10124 EMBRACE is supported by Cancer Research UK Grants C1287/A10118, C1287/A16563 and C1287/A17523. Genotyping was supported by Cancer Research - UK grant C12292/A11174D and C8197/A16565. Gareth Evans and Fiona Lalloo are supported by an NIHR grant to the Biomedical Research Centre, Manchester. The Investigators at The Institute of Cancer Research and The Royal Marsden NHS Foundation Trust are supported by an NIHR grant to the Biomedical Research Centre at The Institute of Cancer Research and The Royal Marsden NHS Foundation Trust. Ros Eeles and Elizabeth Bancroft are supported by Cancer Research UK Grant C5047/A8385. ... Generation Scotland - Scottish Executive Health Department, Chief Scientist Office, grant number CZD/16/6. Exome array genotyping for GS:SFHS was funded by the Medical Research Council UK. 23andMe - This work was supported in part by NIH Award 2R44HG006981-02 from the National Human Genome Research Institute.This is the final version of the article. It first appeared from NPG via http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/ncomms875

Prevalence and architecture of de novo mutations in developmental disorders.

The genomes of individuals with severe, undiagnosed developmental disorders are enriched in damaging de novo mutations (DNMs) in developmentally important genes. Here we have sequenced the exomes of 4,293 families containing individuals with developmental disorders, and meta-analysed these data with data from another 3,287 individuals with similar disorders. We show that the most important factors influencing the diagnostic yield of DNMs are the sex of the affected individual, the relatedness of their parents, whether close relatives are affected and the parental ages. We identified 94 genes enriched in damaging DNMs, including 14 that previously lacked compelling evidence of involvement in developmental disorders. We have also characterized the phenotypic diversity among these disorders. We estimate that 42% of our cohort carry pathogenic DNMs in coding sequences; approximately half of these DNMs disrupt gene function and the remainder result in altered protein function. We estimate that developmental disorders caused by DNMs have an average prevalence of 1 in 213 to 1 in 448 births, depending on parental age. Given current global demographics, this equates to almost 400,000 children born per year

Particulate matter exposure during pregnancy is associated with birth weight, but not gestational age, 1962-1992: a cohort study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Exposure to air pollutants is suggested to adversely affect fetal growth, but the evidence remains inconsistent in relation to specific outcomes and exposure windows.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Using birth records from the two major maternity hospitals in Newcastle upon Tyne in northern England between 1961 and 1992, we constructed a database of all births to mothers resident within the city. Weekly black smoke exposure levels from routine data recorded at 20 air pollution monitoring stations were obtained and individual exposures were estimated via a two-stage modeling strategy, incorporating temporally and spatially varying covariates. Regression analyses, including 88,679 births, assessed potential associations between exposure to black smoke and birth weight, gestational age and birth weight standardized for gestational age and sex.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Significant associations were seen between black smoke and both standardized and unstandardized birth weight, but not for gestational age when adjusted for potential confounders. Not all associations were linear. For an increase in whole pregnancy black smoke exposure, from the 1^st(7.4 μg/m³) to the 25^th(17.2 μg/m³), 50^th(33.8 μg/m³), 75^th(108.3 μg/m³), and 90^th(180.8 μg/m³) percentiles, the adjusted estimated decreases in birth weight were 33 g (SE 1.05), 62 g (1.63), 98 g (2.26) and 109 g (2.44) respectively. A significant interaction was observed between socio-economic deprivation and black smoke on both standardized and unstandardized birth weight with increasing effects of black smoke in reducing birth weight seen with increasing socio-economic disadvantage.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The findings of this study progress the hypothesis that the association between black smoke and birth weight may be mediated through intrauterine growth restriction. The associations between black smoke and birth weight were of the same order of magnitude as those reported for passive smoking. These findings add to the growing evidence of the harmful effects of air pollution on birth outcomes.</p