Climate-informed stochastic hydrological modeling: Incorporating decadal-scale variability using paleo data

A hierarchical framework for incorporating modes of climate variability into stochastic simulations of hydrological data is developed, termed the climate-informed multi-time scale stochastic (CIMSS) framework. A case study on two catchments in eastern Australia illustrates this framework. To develop an identifiable model characterizing long-term variability for the first level of the hierarchy, paleoclimate proxies, and instrumental indices describing the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) are analyzed. A new paleo IPO-PDO time series dating back 440 yr is produced, combining seven IPO-PDO paleo sources using an objective smoothing procedure to fit low-pass filters to individual records. The paleo data analysis indicates that wet/dry IPO-PDO states have a broad range of run lengths, with 90% between 3 and 33 yr and a mean of 15 yr. The Markov chain model, previously used to simulate oscillating wet/dry climate states, is found to underestimate the probability of wet/dry periods >5 yr, and is rejected in favor of a gamma distribution for simulating the run lengths of the wet/dry IPO-PDO states. For the second level of the hierarchy, a seasonal rainfall model is conditioned on the simulated IPO-PDO state. The model is able to replicate observed statistics such as seasonal and multiyear accumulated rainfall distributions and interannual autocorrelations. Mean seasonal rainfall in the IPO-PDO dry states is found to be 15%-28% lower than the wet state at the case study sites. In comparison, an annual lag-one autoregressive model is unable to adequately capture the observed rainfall distribution within separate IPO-PDO states. Copyright © 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.Benjamin J. Henley, Mark A. Thyer, George Kuczera and Stewart W. Frank

p63 and SOX2 Dictate Glucose Reliance and Metabolic Vulnerabilities in Squamous Cell Carcinomas

Squamous cell carcinoma (SCC), a malignancy arising across multiple anatomical sites, is responsible for significant cancer mortality due to insufficient therapeutic options. Here, we identify exceptional glucose reliance among SCCs dictated by hyperactive GLUT1-mediated glucose influx. Mechanistically, squamous lineage transcription factors p63 and SOX2 transactivate the intronic enhancer cluster of SLC2A1. Elevated glucose influx fuels generation of NADPH and GSH, thereby heightening the anti-oxidative capacity in SCC tumors. Systemic glucose restriction by ketogenic diet and inhibiting renal glucose reabsorption with SGLT2 inhibitor precipitate intratumoral oxidative stress and tumor growth inhibition. Furthermore, reduction of blood glucose lowers blood insulin levels, which suppresses PI3K/AKT signaling in SCC cells. Clinically, we demonstrate a robust correlation between blood glucose concentration and worse survival among SCC patients. Collectively, this study identifies the exceptional glucose reliance of SCC and suggests its candidacy as a highly vulnerable cancer type to be targeted by systemic glucose restriction

State of the Climate in 2006 Executive Summary

On the heels of 2005’s record-breaking weather events, 2006 was also a year of records. This was especially the case over the polar regions, where the largest Antarctic ozone hole on record occurred in 2006. Sea ice extent in the Antarctic reached records at times for both maximum and minimum extent, and in the Arctic, scientists observed the second smallest sea ice extent on record (behind 2005). These record events came as attention to the polar regions gained greater focus, thanks in large part to the International Polar Year, during which an unprecedented effort is underway to monitor the Arctic and Antarctic from March 2007 through March 2009

Estimating daily climatological normals in a changing climate

International audienceClimatological normals are widely used baselines for the description and the characterization of a given meteorological situation. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) standard recommends estimating climatological normals as the average of observations over a 30-year period. This approach may lead to strongly biased normals in a changing climate. Here we propose a new method with which to estimate daily climatological normals in a non-stationary climate. Our statistical framework relies on the assumption that the response to climate change is smooth over time, and on a decomposition of the response inspired by the pattern scaling assumption. Estimation is carried out using smoothing splines techniques, with a careful examination of the selection of smoothing parameters. The new method is compared, in a predictive sense and in a perfect model framework, to previously proposed alternatives such as the WMO standard (reset either on a decadal or annual basis), averages over shorter periods, and hinge fits. Results show that our technique outperforms all alternatives considered. They confirm that previously proposed techniques are substantially biased-biases are typically as large as a few tenths to more than 1 • C by the end of the century-while our method is not. We argue that such "climate change corrected" normals might be very useful for climate monitoring, and that weather services could consider using two different sets of normals (i.e. both stationary and non-stationary) for different purposes

FIGURES 7–10. Phileurus truncatus, third instar. 7 in Description of the larva and pupa of Phileurus truncatus (Palisot de Beauvois, 1806) (Coleoptera: Scarabaeidae: Dynastinae: Phileurini) with a key to described third instars of New World Phileurini

FIGURES 7–10. Phileurus truncatus, third instar. 7, Maxillary stridulatory area. SD—stridulatory teeth; 8, labium and maxillae, dorsal view. HSC—hypopharyngeal sclerome; TP—truncate process; (9) antennomeres II–IV; 10, terminal antennomere.DSS—dorsal sensory spots

Phileurus truncatus

<i>Phileurus truncatus</i> (Palisot de Beauvois, 1806) <p> <b>Third instar</b></p> <p>(Figs 1–10)</p> <p> <b>Material examined.</b> One third instar with the following data: “FLORIDA: Alachua Co/Archer; 10-XII-1976 / rotten log of turkey oak/ Scarabaeidae / <i>Phileurus truncatus</i> /P.M. Choate collr.”. One third instar with the following data: “FLORIDA: Alachua Co. Archer; 20-II-2017 /in rotting pine wood in association with adult/coll. Oliver Keller”.</p> <p> <b>Description.</b> Dorsal body length approximately 48 mm. <b>Cranium:</b> Width of head capsule 8 mm. Color yellowish brown (Fig. 1). Surface moderately punctate on frons (F) (punctures separated by slightly more than a punctures diameter), epicranium (E) less densely punctate (most of the large punctures are near the frontal suture and less dense on posterior portions of the epicranium), postclypeus (PSC) with large punctures as dense as on the anterior portion of the frons, and labrum densely punctate. Epicranial suture (ES) and frontal suture (FS) distinct. <b>Frons:</b> Surface with 1 exterior frontal seta (EFS) (Fig. 1). Anterior frontal setae absent. Two posterior frontal setae (PFS) on each side of frons. Each anterior angle (AAS) with 2 setae. Epicranium on surface with 3 dorsoepicranial setae (DES). About 10 total epicranial setae distributed irregularly. Eight paraocellar setae (POS) on each side, setae arranged in two distinct rows of four setae each. Ocellus (O) present. <b>Clypeus:</b> Form trapezoidal. Surface of postclypeus with no anterior clypeal setae (ACS) and 2 external clypeal setae (ECS) on both right and left side (Fig. 1). <b>Labrum:</b> Surface slightly asymmetrical with lateral margins of labrum (and epipharynx) angulate on each side (Fig. 1). One long posterior labral setae (PLS) on each side and about 10 posterolateral labral setae (PLLS). <b>Epipharynx:</b> Asymmetrical, left lateral margin slightly angulate (Fig. 2). Haptomeral process (HP) ridge-like, not notched. Right and left chaetoparia (CPA) well developed, without sensillae; each with about 50 setae. Acroparia (ACR) with about 10 long, stout, slightly curved setae. Corypha (CO) with 8 short, stout, slightly curved setae. Left acanthoparia (ACP) with 10 short, curved, spine-like setae; right acanthoparia with 11 short, curved, spine-like setae. Pedium (P) longer than wide and without setae. Dexiotorma (DX) sclerotized, broad, and elongate. Laetorma (LT) shorter than dexiotorma (by approximately 1 mm). Pternotorma (PTT) rounded. Haptolachus (HL) lacking setae. Sclerotized plate (SP) of right nesium (RN) well developed, nearly half as broad at middle as the sense cone, sclerotized plate projected medially, half its length to sense cone. Sense cone (SC) a well-sclerotized, rounded plate. <b>Left mandible:</b> Form falcate (Figs 3–4). Scissorial area with blade-like apical tooth (S1+S2 fused), separated from S3 by scissorial notch (SN), S4 below notch. S3 large and triangular. Scrobis (SCR) with 10 slender, long setae. Acia (AC) well developed and acute. Ventral surface with elongate, oval stridulatory area (STA) that are similar in width with about 52-54 narrowly separated, subparallel ridges. Preartis (PA) distinct, concave. Ventral process (VP) large, anterior portion subangulate. Brustia (BR) with about 15 long setae. Molar area with about 6 ventral molar setae. Molar lobe (ML) with a large, prominent anterior tooth, with apex weakly emarginate. Flattened posterior portion of subdivided molar with dorsal margin weakly depressed. Postartis (PTA) large, rounded. <b>Right mandible:</b> Form falcate (Figs 5–6). Scissorial area with apical, blade-like tooth (S1+S2 fused), separated from S3 by scissorial notch, S4 below notch. S3 slightly smaller than on left mandible. Scrobis (SCR) with 8 long setae. Acia (AC) absent. Dorsal surface with 1 long seta posterior to base of S3. Preartis (PA) distinct, concave. Ventral surface with elongate-oval, stridulatory area (SA) with about 50 narrowly separated, subparallel ridges. Ventral process (VP) large, subangulate. Brustia with about 10–12 long setae. Molar area with about 6 ventral molar setae (VMS). Postartis (PTA) large, rounded. <b>Maxilla and labium:</b> Stridulatory area of left maxilla with row of 9–10 stridulatory teeth (SD), teeth becoming increasingly smaller basally; apical most tooth much larger than other teeth (Fig. 7). Stridulatory area of right maxilla with row of 7 teeth. Glossa in dorsal view with about 40 setae; disc of glossa in dorsal view developed into a round mound. Hypopharyngeal sclerome (HSC) (Fig. 8) symmetrical; apical portion of hypopharyngeal sclerome developed into a large, roughly symmetrical lobe, apex of this lobe is broadly emarginated and fits snuggly onto the glossal mound. Truncate process (TP) prominent, elevated slightly and produced. Lateral lobes with about 13 long setae on left side. <b>Antenna:</b> Antenna with 4 antennomeres; antennomeres I–II subequal in length, each slightly longer than antennomere III; length of terminal antennomere slightly less than length of antennomere III. Terminal antennomere on dorsal surface with 5 dorsal sensory spots (DSS) (Figs. 9–10). <b>Thorax:</b> Prothoracic spiracle about 0.8–1.0 mm long, 0.6–0.7 mm wide; respiratory plate light brown. C-shaped, spiracular bulla rounded, barely elevated; respiratory plate with about 40 regularly edged holes across diameter at middle. Dorsum of pronotum and prescutum segments II and III each with transverse row of long slender setae. <b>Legs:</b> Coxa, trochanter, femur, and tibiotarsus of all legs with numerous long, stout, setae. Tarsal claws falcate, with 1 basal external seta and 1 internal, preapical seta. Protarsal, mesotarsal, and metatarsal claws equal in length. <b>Abdomen:</b> Abdominal spiracles slightly larger (1.1 mm long, 0.8 mm wide) than prothoracic spiracle, all abdominal spiracles subequal in size. Abdominal segments I–VIII each with multiple transverse rows of long, spine-like setae. <b>Raster:</b> Teger with short, spine-like setae projecting towards anal slit. Lower anal lobe entire, covered with short, stout setae like those of the raster; fringed posteriorly with longer, slender setae. Anal slit transverse.</p>Published as part of <i>Arguez, Katherine M., Moore, Matthew R. & Branham, Marc A., 2017, Description of the larva and pupa of Phileurus truncatus (Palisot de Beauvois, 1806) (Coleoptera: Scarabaeidae: Dynastinae: Phileurini) with a key to described third instars of New World Phileurini in Zootaxa 4363 (2)</i>, DOI: 10.11646/zootaxa.4363.2.6, <a href="http://zenodo.org/record/1098838">http://zenodo.org/record/1098838</a&gt

Phileurini Burmeister 1847

Key to the third instars of New World Phileurini Modified from Neita & Ratcliffe (2011), Ratcliffe & Skelley (2011), Ibarra-Polesel et al. 2017. 1. Anterior frontal setae absent............................................................................. 2 - Anterior frontal setae present............................................................................ 7 2. Lateral margins of labrum broadly rounded, not angulate (Argentina, southern Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay)................................................................................... Trioplus cylindricus (Mannerheim, 1829) - At least one lateral margin of labrum angulate............................................................... 3 3. Left and right lateral margins of labrum angulate. Maxilla with a row of six conical, stridulatory teeth (Uruguay, Brazil).................................................................... Archophileurus fimbriatus (Burmeister, 1847) - Left lateral margin of labrum angulate. Maxilla with 6–10 stridulatory teeth....................................... 4 4. Terminal antennomere with 5 dorsal sensory spots........................................................... 5 - Terminal antennomere with less than 5 dorsal sensory spots....................................................6 5. Abdominal spiracle I smaller than spiracles II–VII. Maxilla with row of 6–7 truncate, stridulatory teeth (Colombia)......................................................................... Hemiphileurus elbitae Neita & Ratcliffe, 2010 - Abdominal spiracles similar in size. Maxilla with row of 7–10 truncate, stridulatory teeth (United States of America to Pan- ama).......................................................... Phileurus truncatus (Palisot de Beauvois, 1806) 6. Terminal segment of antenna with 2 dorsal sensory spots. Inner margin of left mandible, distad of molar area, with short, rounded tooth (Hispaniola)................................................... Hemiphileurus dispar Kolbe, 1910 - Terminal segment of antenna with 3–4 dorsal sensory spots. Inner margin of left mandible, distad of molar area, with promi- nent, triangular tooth (United States of America, Mexico)....................... Hemiphileurus illatus (LeConte, 1854) 7. Protarsal claw longer than mesotarsal and metatarsal claws.....................................................8 - Protarsal claw similar in size to mesotarsal and metatarsal claws.............................................. 11 8. Surface of head coarsely pitted, with dense covering of setae. Stridulatory area of mandible formed by approximately 30 sepa- rated ridges (Brazil)...................................................... Actinobolus trilobus Lüderwaldt, 1910 - Surface of head moderately punctate and sparsely setae. Stridulatory area of mandible formed by 40 or more separated ridges....................................................................................................9 9. Left lateral margin of labrum angulate................................................................... 10 - Lateral margins of labrum broadly rounded, not angulate (northeastern South America)................................................................................................ Homophileurus luederwaldti (Ohaus, 1910) 10. Anterior clypeal setae absent (Brazil, Paraguay)........................... Homophileurus integer (Burmeister, 1847) - Anterior clypeal setae present (Mexico to Brazil)............................... Homophileurus tricuspis Prell, 1914 11. Ocelli absent....................................................................................... 12 - Ocelli present....................................................................................... 13 12. Right lateral margin of labrum rounded, raster and lower anal lobe with short setae alternates with numerous long setae (South America)............................................................ Archophileurus vervex Burmeister, 1847 - Right lateral margin of labrum angulate, raster and lower anal lobe with short and thin setae (United States of America to Argentina)................................................................. Phileurus valgus (Olivier, 1789) 13. Lateral margins of labrum broadly rounded, not angulate. Laephoba with 11 slender, short setae Maxilla with a row of 7 strid- ulatory teeth (Mexico to Paraguay)........................................... Phileurus didymus (Linnaeus, 1758) - Left and right lateral margins of labrum angulate. Laephoba with 17 slender, short setae. Maxilla with a row of 9 stridulatory teeth (French Guiana, Brazil, Uruguay)......................................... Phileurus affinis Burmeister, 1847Published as part of Arguez, Katherine M., Moore, Matthew R. & Branham, Marc A., 2017, Description of the larva and pupa of Phileurus truncatus (Palisot de Beauvois, 1806) (Coleoptera: Scarabaeidae: Dynastinae: Phileurini) with a key to described third instars of New World Phileurini in Zootaxa 4363 (2), DOI: 10.11646/zootaxa.4363.2.6, http://zenodo.org/record/109883

Description of the larva and pupa of Phileurus truncatus (Palisot de Beauvois, 1806) (Coleoptera: Scarabaeidae: Dynastinae: Phileurini) with a key to described third instars of New World Phileurini

Arguez, Katherine M., Moore, Matthew R., Branham, Marc A. (2017): Description of the larva and pupa of Phileurus truncatus (Palisot de Beauvois, 1806) (Coleoptera: Scarabaeidae: Dynastinae: Phileurini) with a key to described third instars of New World Phileurini. Zootaxa 4363 (2), DOI: https://doi.org/10.11646/zootaxa.4363.2.