Evaluating Density Forecasts

We propose methods for evaluating density forecasts. We focus primarily on methods that are applicable regardless of the particular user's loss function. We illustrate the methods with a detailed simulation example, and then we present an application to density forecasting of daily stock market returns. We discuss extensions for improving suboptimal density forecasts, multi-step-ahead density forecast evaluation, multivariate density forecast evaluation, monitoring for structural change and its relationship to density forecasting, and density forecast evaluation with known loss function.

Evaluating density forecasts

The authors propose methods for evaluating and improving density forecasts. They focus primarily on methods that are applicable regardless of the particular user's loss function, though they take explicit account of the relationships between density forecasts, action choices, and the corresponding expected loss throughout. They illustrate the methods with a detailed series of examples, and they discuss extensions to improving and combining suboptimal density forecasts, multistep-ahead density forecast evaluation, multivariate density forecast evaluation, monitoring for structural change and its relationship to density forecasting, and density forecast evaluation with known loss function.Forecasting

Neural precursors of future liking and affective reciprocity

Why do certain group members end up liking each other more than others? How does affective reciprocity arise in human groups? The prediction of interpersonal sentiment has been a long-standing pursuit in the social sciences. We combined fMRI and longitudinal social network data to test whether newly acquainted group members’ reward-related neural responses to images of one another’s faces predict their future interpersonal sentiment, even many months later. Specifically, we analyze associations between relationship-specific valuation activity and relationship-specific future liking. We found that one’s own future (T2) liking of a particular group member is predicted jointly by actor’s initial (T1) neural valuation of partner and by that partner’s initial (T1) neural valuation of actor. These actor and partner effects exhibited equivalent predictive strength and were robust when statistically controlling for each other, both individuals’ initial liking, and other potential drivers of liking. Behavioral findings indicated that liking was initially unreciprocated at T1 yet became strongly reciprocated by T2. The emergence of affective reciprocity was partly explained by the reciprocal pathways linking dyad members’ T1 neural data both to their own and to each other’s T2 liking outcomes. These findings elucidate interpersonal brain mechanisms that define how we ultimately end up liking particular interaction partners, how group members’ initially idiosyncratic sentiments become reciprocated, and more broadly, how dyads evolve. This study advances a flexible framework for researching the neural foundations of interpersonal sentiments and social relations that—conceptually, methodologically, and statistically—emphasizes group members’ neural interdependence

The Hot QCD White Paper: Exploring the Phases of QCD at RHIC and the LHC

The past decade has seen huge advances in experimental measurements made in heavy ion collisions at the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider (RHIC) and more recently at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC). These new data, in combination with theoretical advances from calculations made in a variety of frameworks, have led to a broad and deep knowledge of the properties of thermal QCD matter. Increasingly quantitative descriptions of the quark-gluon plasma (QGP) created in these collisions have established that the QGP is a strongly coupled liquid with the lowest value of specific viscosity ever measured. However, much remains to be learned about the precise nature of the initial state from which this liquid forms, how its properties vary across its phase diagram and how, at a microscopic level, the collective properties of this liquid emerge from the interactions among the individual quarks and gluons that must be visible if the liquid is probed with sufficiently high resolution. This white paper, prepared by the Hot QCD Writing Group as part of the U.S. Long Range Plan for Nuclear Physics, reviews the recent progress in the field of hot QCD and outlines the scientific opportunities in the next decade for resolving the outstanding issues in the field.Comment: 110 pages, 33 figures, 429 references. Prepared as part of the U.S. Long-Range Plan for Nuclear Physic

Evaluating Density Forecasts

We propose methods for evaluating density forecasts. We focus primarily on methods" that are applicable regardless of the particular user's loss function. We illustrate the methods" with a detailed simulation example, and then we present an application to density forecasting of" daily stock market returns. We discuss extensions for improving suboptimal density forecasts multi-step-ahead density forecast evaluation, multivariate density forecast evaluation for structural change and its relationship to density forecasting, and density forecast evaluation" with known loss function.

Bioconductor: open software development for computational biology and bioinformatics.

The Bioconductor project is an initiative for the collaborative creation of extensible software for computational biology and bioinformatics. The goals of the project include: fostering collaborative development and widespread use of innovative software, reducing barriers to entry into interdisciplinary scientific research, and promoting the achievement of remote reproducibility of research results. We describe details of our aims and methods, identify current challenges, compare Bioconductor to other open bioinformatics projects, and provide working examples

Feedback Effect on Landau-Zener-Stueckelberg Transitions in Magnetic Systems

We examine the effect of the dynamics of the internal magnetic field on the staircase magnetization curves observed in large-spin molecular magnets. We show that the size of the magnetization steps depends sensitively on the intermolecular interactions, even if these are very small compared to the intra-molecular couplings.Comment: 4 pages, 3 Postscript figures; paper reorganized, conclusions modifie

ROBO2 is a stroma suppressor gene in the pancreas and acts via TGF-β signalling

Whereas genomic aberrations in the SLIT-ROBO pathway are frequent in pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC), their function in the pancreas is unclear. Here we report that in pancreatitis and PDAC mouse models, epithelial Robo2 expression is lost while Robo1 expression becomes most prominent in the stroma. Cell cultures of mice with loss of epithelial Robo2 (Pdx1 ;Robo2 ) show increased activation of Robo1 myofibroblasts and induction of TGF-β and Wnt pathways. During pancreatitis, Pdx1 ;Robo2 mice present enhanced myofibroblast activation, collagen crosslinking, T-cell infiltration and tumorigenic immune markers. The TGF-β inhibitor galunisertib suppresses these effects. In PDAC patients, ROBO2 expression is overall low while ROBO1 is variably expressed in epithelium and high in stroma. ROBO2 ;ROBO1 patients present the poorest survival. In conclusion, Robo2 acts non-autonomously as a stroma suppressor gene by restraining myofibroblast activation and T-cell infiltration. ROBO1/2 expression in PDAC patients may guide therapy with TGF-β inhibitors or other stroma /immune modulating agents

LSST: from Science Drivers to Reference Design and Anticipated Data Products

(Abridged) We describe here the most ambitious survey currently planned in the optical, the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST). A vast array of science will be enabled by a single wide-deep-fast sky survey, and LSST will have unique survey capability in the faint time domain. The LSST design is driven by four main science themes: probing dark energy and dark matter, taking an inventory of the Solar System, exploring the transient optical sky, and mapping the Milky Way. LSST will be a wide-field ground-based system sited at Cerro Pach\'{o}n in northern Chile. The telescope will have an 8.4 m (6.5 m effective) primary mirror, a 9.6 deg$^2$ field of view, and a 3.2 Gigapixel camera. The standard observing sequence will consist of pairs of 15-second exposures in a given field, with two such visits in each pointing in a given night. With these repeats, the LSST system is capable of imaging about 10,000 square degrees of sky in a single filter in three nights. The typical 5$\sigma$ point-source depth in a single visit in $r$ will be $\sim 24.5$ (AB). The project is in the construction phase and will begin regular survey operations by 2022. The survey area will be contained within 30,000 deg$^2$ with $\delta<+34.5^\circ$, and will be imaged multiple times in six bands, $ugrizy$, covering the wavelength range 320--1050 nm. About 90\% of the observing time will be devoted to a deep-wide-fast survey mode which will uniformly observe a 18,000 deg$^2$ region about 800 times (summed over all six bands) during the anticipated 10 years of operations, and yield a coadded map to $r\sim27.5$. The remaining 10\% of the observing time will be allocated to projects such as a Very Deep and Fast time domain survey. The goal is to make LSST data products, including a relational database of about 32 trillion observations of 40 billion objects, available to the public and scientists around the world.Comment: 57 pages, 32 color figures, version with high-resolution figures available from https://www.lsst.org/overvie

Effect of a price discount and consumer education strategy on food and beverage purchases in remote Indigenous Australia: a stepped-wedge randomised controlled trial

Background Evidence is mounting that price discounts can be effective in improving diet. This study examined the effectiveness of a 20% price discount on food and drink purchases with and without consumer education in remote Indigenous Australia. Methods A 20% discount on fruit, vegetables, water, and artificially sweetened soft drinks was applied for 24 weeks in 20 communities in remote Indigenous Australia where the community store was managed by the Arnhem Land Progress Aboriginal Corporation (ALPA) or Outback Stores (OBS) in a stepped-wedge randomised trial. Communities were randomly allocated to a fixed framework of five sets of four stratified by store association; ten stores (two in each set) were randomly assigned to receive consumer education. A store from each of the ALPA and OBS store groups (contained in separate opaque envelopes) was selected, and stores in turn continued to be consecutively allocated to the fixed store set framework, starting with the first store slot in the first store set, until all stores had been allocated. The effect of the discount on the weight of fruit and vegetables purchased (the primary endpoint) was assessed using weekly store sales data and mixed models per protocol. We did sensitivity analyses by repeating the analyses with the outliers included and repeating the analyses for the primary outcome measure removing each store one at a time. This trial was registered with Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry, number ACTRN12613000694718. Findings Weekly store sales data on all food and drink products sold in 20 stores were collected from July 1, 2012, to Dec 28, 2014. Price discount alone was associated with a 12&middot;7% (95% CI 4&middot;1&ndash;22&middot;1) increase in purchases in grams of fruit and vegetables combined (primary outcome), and a 19&middot;8% (6&middot;2&ndash;35&middot;1) increase post discount (after vs before); an effect of 12 g and 18 g per capita per day. Sensitivity analyses did not modify the results for the primary outcome measure. Interpretation A 20% discount can only increase fruit and vegetable purchases to help protect against obesity and diet related disease to a certain extent. Large discounts might have a greater impact than small discounts. Creative merchandising approaches to consumer education could also be considered alongside fiscal interventions to achieve marked improvements in diet.<br /