The use of classification and regression trees to predict the likelihood of seasonal influenza

Background Individual signs and symptoms are of limited value for the diagnosis of influenza. Objective To develop a decision tree for the diagnosis of influenza based on a classification and regression tree (CART) analysis. Methods Data from two previous similar cohort studies were assembled into a single dataset. The data were randomly divided into a development set (70%) and a validation set (30%). We used CART analysis to develop three models that maximize the number of patients who do not require diagnostic testing prior to treatment decisions. The validation set was used to evaluate overfitting of the model to the training set. Results Model 1 has seven terminal nodes based on temperature, the onset of symptoms and the presence of chills, cough and myalgia. Model 2 was a simpler tree with only two splits based on temperature and the presence of chills. Model 3 was developed with temperature as a dichotomous variable (≥38°C) and had only two splits based on the presence of fever and myalgia. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROCC) for the development and validation sets, respectively, were 0.82 and 0.80 for Model 1, 0.75 and 0.76 for Model 2 and 0.76 and 0.77 for Model 3. Model 2 classified 67% of patients in the validation group into a high- or low-risk group compared with only 38% for Model 1 and 54% for Model 3. Conclusions A simple decision tree (Model 2) classified two-thirds of patients as low or high risk and had an AUROCC of 0.76. After further validation in an independent population, this CART model could support clinical decision making regarding influenza, with low-risk patients requiring no further evaluation for influenza and high-risk patients being candidates for empiric symptomatic or drug therap

Gestational Weight Gain and Birth Outcome in Relation to Prepregnancy Body Mass Index and Ethnicity

The obesity epidemic raises concerns about the impact of excessive and insufficient weight gain during pregnancy

c-Fms-Mediated Differentiation and Priming of Monocyte Lineage Cells Play a Central Role in Autoimmune Arthritis

Introduction: Tyrosine kinases are key mediators of multiple signaling pathways implicated in rheumatoid arthritis (RA). We previously demonstrated that imatinib mesylate--a Food and Drug Administration (FDA)-approved, antineoplastic drug that potently inhibits the tyrosine kinases Abl, c-Kit, platelet-derived growth factor receptor (PDGFR), and c-Fms--ameliorates murine autoimmune arthritis. However, which of the imatinib-targeted kinases is the principal culprit in disease pathogenesis remains unknown. Here we examine the role of c-Fms in autoimmune arthritis. Methods: We tested the therapeutic efficacy of orally administered imatinib or GW2580, a small molecule that specifically inhibits c-Fms, in three mouse models of RA: collagen-induced arthritis (CIA), anti-collagen antibody-induced arthritis (CAIA), and K/BxN serum transfer-induced arthritis (K/BxN). Efficacy was evaluated by visual scoring of arthritis severity, paw thickness measurements, and histological analysis. We assessed the in vivo effects of imatinib and GW2580 on macrophage infiltration of synovial joints in CIA, and their in vitro effects on macrophage and osteoclast differentiation, and on osteoclast-mediated bone resorption. Further, we determined the effects of imatinib and GW2580 on the ability of macrophage colony-stimulating factor (M-CSF; the ligand for c-Fms) to prime bone marrow-derived macrophages to produce tumor necrosis factor (TNF) upon subsequent Fc receptor ligation. Finally, we measured M-CSF levels in synovial fluid from patients with RA, osteoarthritis (OA), or psoriatic arthritis (PsA), and levels of total and phosphorylated c-Fms in synovial tissue from patients with RA. Results: GW2580 was as efficacious as imatinib in reducing arthritis severity in CIA, CAIA, and K/BxN models of RA. Specific inhibition of c-Fms abrogated (i) infiltration of macrophages into synovial joints of arthritic mice; (ii) differentiation of monocytes into macrophages and osteoclasts; (iii) osteoclast-mediated bone resorption; and (iv) priming of macrophages to produce TNF upon Fc receptor stimulation, an important trigger of synovitis in RA. Expression and activation of c-Fms in RA synovium were high, and levels of M-CSF were higher in RA synovial fluid than in OA or PsA synovial fluid. Conclusions: These results suggest that c-Fms plays a central role in the pathogenesis of RA by mediating the differentiation and priming of monocyte lineage cells. Therapeutic targeting of c-Fms could provide benefit in RA

Challenging claims in the study of migratory birds and climate change

Recent shifts in phenology in response to climate change are well established but often poorly understood. Many animals integrate climate change across a spatially and temporally dispersed annual life cycle, and effects are modulated by ecological interactions, evolutionary change and endogenous control mechanisms. Here we assess and discuss key statements emerging from the rapidly developing study of changing spring phenology in migratory birds. These well-studied organisms have been instrumental for understanding climate-change effects, but research is developing rapidly and there is a need to attack the big issues rather than risking affirmative science. Although we agree poorly on the support for most claims, agreement regarding the knowledge basis enables consensus regarding broad patterns and likely causes. Empirical data needed for disentangling mechanisms are still scarce, and consequences at a population level and on community composition remain unclear. With increasing knowledge, the overall support (‘consensus view’) for a claim increased and between-researcher variability in support (‘expert opinions') decreased, indicating the importance of assessing and communicating the knowledge basis. A proper integration across biological disciplines seems essential for the field's transition from affirming patterns to understanding mechanisms and making robust predictions regarding future consequences of shifting phenologies

Annotation of two large contiguous regions from the Haemonchus contortus genome using RNA-seq and comparative analysis with Caenorhabditis elegans

The genomes of numerous parasitic nematodes are currently being sequenced, but their complexity and size, together with high levels of intra-specific sequence variation and a lack of reference genomes, makes their assembly and annotation a challenging task. Haemonchus contortus is an economically significant parasite of livestock that is widely used for basic research as well as for vaccine development and drug discovery. It is one of many medically and economically important parasites within the strongylid nematode group. This group of parasites has the closest phylogenetic relationship with the model organism Caenorhabditis elegans, making comparative analysis a potentially powerful tool for genome annotation and functional studies. To investigate this hypothesis, we sequenced two contiguous fragments from the H. contortus genome and undertook detailed annotation and comparative analysis with C. elegans. The adult H. contortus transcriptome was sequenced using an Illumina platform and RNA-seq was used to annotate a 409 kb overlapping BAC tiling path relating to the X chromosome and a 181 kb BAC insert relating to chromosome I. In total, 40 genes and 12 putative transposable elements were identified. 97.5% of the annotated genes had detectable homologues in C. elegans of which 60% had putative orthologues, significantly higher than previous analyses based on EST analysis. Gene density appears to be less in H. contortus than in C. elegans, with annotated H. contortus genes being an average of two-to-three times larger than their putative C. elegans orthologues due to a greater intron number and size. Synteny appears high but gene order is generally poorly conserved, although areas of conserved microsynteny are apparent. C. elegans operons appear to be partially conserved in H. contortus. Our findings suggest that a combination of RNA-seq and comparative analysis with C. elegans is a powerful approach for the annotation and analysis of strongylid nematode genomes

Ethnic Variation in Inflammatory Profile in Tuberculosis

PMCID: PMC3701709This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited

Brain structural covariance networks in obsessive-compulsive disorder: a graph analysis from the ENIGMA Consortium.

Brain structural covariance networks reflect covariation in morphology of different brain areas and are thought to reflect common trajectories in brain development and maturation. Large-scale investigation of structural covariance networks in obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD) may provide clues to the pathophysiology of this neurodevelopmental disorder. Using T1-weighted MRI scans acquired from 1616 individuals with OCD and 1463 healthy controls across 37 datasets participating in the ENIGMA-OCD Working Group, we calculated intra-individual brain structural covariance networks (using the bilaterally-averaged values of 33 cortical surface areas, 33 cortical thickness values, and six subcortical volumes), in which edge weights were proportional to the similarity between two brain morphological features in terms of deviation from healthy controls (i.e. z-score transformed). Global networks were characterized using measures of network segregation (clustering and modularity), network integration (global efficiency), and their balance (small-worldness), and their community membership was assessed. Hub profiling of regional networks was undertaken using measures of betweenness, closeness, and eigenvector centrality. Individually calculated network measures were integrated across the 37 datasets using a meta-analytical approach. These network measures were summated across the network density range of K = 0.10-0.25 per participant, and were integrated across the 37 datasets using a meta-analytical approach. Compared with healthy controls, at a global level, the structural covariance networks of OCD showed lower clustering (P < 0.0001), lower modularity (P < 0.0001), and lower small-worldness (P = 0.017). Detection of community membership emphasized lower network segregation in OCD compared to healthy controls. At the regional level, there were lower (rank-transformed) centrality values in OCD for volume of caudate nucleus and thalamus, and surface area of paracentral cortex, indicative of altered distribution of brain hubs. Centrality of cingulate and orbito-frontal as well as other brain areas was associated with OCD illness duration, suggesting greater involvement of these brain areas with illness chronicity. In summary, the findings of this study, the largest brain structural covariance study of OCD to date, point to a less segregated organization of structural covariance networks in OCD, and reorganization of brain hubs. The segregation findings suggest a possible signature of altered brain morphometry in OCD, while the hub findings point to OCD-related alterations in trajectories of brain development and maturation, particularly in cingulate and orbitofrontal regions

F-Actin-Dependent Regulation of NESH Dynamics in Rat Hippocampal Neurons

Synaptic plasticity is an important feature of neurons essential for learning and memory. Postsynaptic organization and composition are dynamically remodeled in response to diverse synaptic inputs during synaptic plasticity. During this process, the dynamics and localization of postsynaptic proteins are also precisely regulated. NESH/Abi-3 is a member of the Abl interactor (Abi) protein family. Overexpression of NESH is associated with reduced cell motility and tumor metastasis. Strong evidence of a close relationship between NESH and the actin cytoskeleton has been documented. Although earlier studies have shown that NESH is prominently expressed in the brain, its function and characteristics are yet to be established. Data from the present investigation suggest that synaptic localization of NESH in hippocampal neurons is regulated in an F-actin-dependent manner. The dynamic fraction of NESH in the dendritic spine was analyzed using FRAP (fluorescence recovery after photobleaching). Interestingly, F-actin stabilization and disruption significantly affected the mobile fraction of NESH, possibly through altered interactions of NESH with the F-actin. In addition, NESH was synaptically targeted from the dendritic shaft to spine after induction of chemical LTP (long-term potentiation) and the translocation was dependent on F-actin. Our data collectively support the significance of the F-actin cytoskeleton in synaptic targeting of NESH as well as its dynamics

Reply to: New Meta- and Mega-analyses of Magnetic Resonance Imaging Findings in Schizophrenia: Do They Really Increase Our Knowledge About the Nature of the Disease Process?

This work was supported by National Institute of Biomedical Imaging and Bioengineering Grant No. U54EB020403 (to the ENIGMA consortium)