Community Epidemiology Framework for Classifying Disease Threats

Ecologic and evolutionary features of multihost pathogens determine the likelihood of emerging infectious diseases

Understanding the role of eco-evolutionary feedbacks in host-parasite coevolution

It is widely recognised that eco-evolutionary feedbacks can have important implications for evolution. However, many models of host-parasite coevolution omit eco-evolutionary feedbacks for the sake of simplicity, typically by assuming the population sizes of both species are constant. It is often difficult to determine whether the results of these models are qualitatively robust if eco-evolutionary feedbacks are included. Here, by allowing interspecific encounter probabilities to depend on population densities without otherwise varying the structure of the models, we provide a simple method that can test whether eco-evolutionary feedbacks per se affect evolutionary outcomes. Applying this approach to explicit genetic and quantitative trait models from the literature, our framework shows that qualitative changes to the outcome can be directly attributable to eco-evolutionary feedbacks. For example, shifting the dynamics between stable monomorphism or polymorphism and cycling, as well as changing the nature of the cycles. Our approach, which can be readily applied to many different models of host-parasite coevolution, offers a straightforward method for testing whether eco-evolutionary feedbacks qualitatively change coevolutionary outcomes

Limiting damage during infection:lessons from infection tolerance for novel therapeutics

The distinction between pathogen elimination and damage limitation during infection is beginning to change perspectives on infectious disease control, and has recently led to the development of novel therapies that focus on reducing the illness caused by pathogens ("damage limitation") rather than reducing pathogen burdens directly ("pathogen elimination"). While beneficial at the individual host level, the population consequences of these interventions remain unclear. To address this issue, we present a simple conceptual framework for damage limitation during infection that distinguishes between therapies that are either host-centric (pro-tolerance) or pathogen-centric (anti-virulence). We then draw on recent developments from the evolutionary ecology of disease tolerance to highlight some potential epidemiological and evolutionary responses of pathogens to medical interventions that target the symptoms of infection. Just as pathogens are known to evolve in response to antimicrobial and vaccination therapies, we caution that claims of "evolution-proof" anti-virulence interventions may be premature, and further, that in infections where virulence and transmission are linked, reducing illness without reducing pathogen burden could have non-trivial epidemiological and evolutionary consequences that require careful examination

Social evolution theory for microorganisms.

Microorganisms communicate and cooperate to perform a wide range of multicellular behaviours, such as dispersal, nutrient acquisition, biofilm formation and quorum sensing. Microbiologists are rapidly gaining a greater understanding of the molecular mechanisms involved in these behaviours, and the underlying genetic regulation. Such behaviours are also interesting from the perspective of social evolution - why do microorganisms engage in these behaviours given that cooperative individuals can be exploited by selfish cheaters, who gain the benefit of cooperation without paying their share of the cost? There is great potential for interdisciplinary research in this fledgling field of sociomicrobiology, but a limiting factor is the lack of effective communication of social evolution theory to microbiologists. Here, we provide a conceptual overview of the different mechanisms through which cooperative behaviours can be stabilized, emphasizing the aspects most relevant to microorganisms, the novel problems that microorganisms pose and the new insights that can be gained from applying evolutionary theory to microorganisms

The evolution of eusociality

International audienc

Inclusive fitness theory and eusociality

Arising from M. A. Nowak, C. E. Tarnita & E. O. Wilson 466, 1057-1062 (2010); Nowak et al. reply. Nowak et al. argue that inclusive fitness theory has been of little value in explaining the natural world, and that it has led to negligible progress in explaining the evolution of eusociality. However, we believe that their arguments are based upon a misunderstanding of evolutionary theory and a misrepresentation of the empirical literature. We will focus our comments on three general issues