Emerging Capabilities for Detection and Characterization of Near-Earth Objects (NEOs)

Here we describe the status for the detection and characterization of Near- Earth Objects (NEO) with current and future observatories. A summary of the capabilities, limitations, and obtainable NEO parameters is provided. <p/

Emerging Capabilities for Detection and Characterization of Near-Earth Objects (NEOs)

Here we describe the status for the detection and characterization of Near- Earth Objects (NEO) with current and future observatories. A summary of the capabilities, limitations, and obtainable NEO parameters is provided. <p/

Local and Landscape Factors Determining Occurrence of Phyllostomid Bats in Tropical Secondary Forests

Neotropical forests are being increasingly replaced by a mosaic of patches of different successional stages, agricultural fields and pasture lands. Consequently, the identification of factors shaping the performance of taxa in anthropogenic landscapes is gaining importance, especially for taxa playing critical roles in ecosystem functioning. As phyllostomid bats provide important ecological services through seed dispersal, pollination and control of animal populations, in this study we assessed the relationships between phyllostomid occurrence and the variation in local and landscape level habitat attributes caused by disturbance. We mist-netted phyllostomids in 12 sites representing 4 successional stages of a tropical dry forest (initial, early, intermediate and late). We also quantitatively characterized the habitat attributes at the local (vegetation structure complexity) and the landscape level (forest cover, area and diversity of patches). Two focal scales were considered for landscape characterization: 500 and 1000 m. During 142 sampling nights, we captured 606 individuals representing 15 species and 4 broad guilds. Variation in phyllostomid assemblages, ensembles and populations was associated with variation in local and landscape habitat attributes, and this association was scale-dependent. Specifically, we found a marked guild-specific response, where the abundance of nectarivores tended to be negatively associated with the mean area of dry forest patches, while the abundance of frugivores was positively associated with the percentage of riparian forest. These results are explained by the prevalence of chiropterophilic species in the dry forest and of chiropterochorous species in the riparian forest. Our results indicate that different vegetation classes, as well as a multi-spatial scale approach must be considered for evaluating bat response to variation in landscape attributes. Moreover, for the long-term conservation of phyllostomids in anthropogenic landscapes, we must realize that the management of the habitat at the landscape level is as important as the conservation of particular forest fragments

The 2017 May 20th^{\rm th} stellar occultation by the elongated centaur (95626) 2002 GZ32_{32}

We predicted a stellar occultation of the bright star Gaia DR1 4332852996360346368 (UCAC4 385-75921) (m$_{\rm V}$= 14.0 mag) by the centaur 2002 GZ$_{32}$ for 2017 May 20$^{\rm th}$. Our latest shadow path prediction was favourable to a large region in Europe. Observations were arranged in a broad region inside the nominal shadow path. Series of images were obtained with 29 telescopes throughout Europe and from six of them (five in Spain and one in Greece) we detected the occultation. This is the fourth centaur, besides Chariklo, Chiron and Bienor, for which a multi-chord stellar occultation is reported. By means of an elliptical fit to the occultation chords we obtained the limb of 2002 GZ$_{32}$ during the occultation, resulting in an ellipse with axes of 305 $\pm$ 17 km $\times$ 146 $\pm$ 8 km. From this limb, thanks to a rotational light curve obtained shortly after the occultation, we derived the geometric albedo of 2002 GZ$_{32}$ ($p_{\rm V}$ = 0.043 $\pm$ 0.007) and a 3-D ellipsoidal shape with axes 366 km $\times$ 306 km $\times$ 120 km. This shape is not fully consistent with a homogeneous body in hydrostatic equilibrium for the known rotation period of 2002 GZ$_{32}$. The size (albedo) obtained from the occultation is respectively smaller (greater) than that derived from the radiometric technique but compatible within error bars. No rings or debris around 2002 GZ$_{32}$ were detected from the occultation, but narrow and thin rings cannot be discarded.Comment: Accepted for publication in MNRAS (8-Dec.-2020), 15 pages, 9 figure

Mortality by age, gene and gender in carriers of pathogenic mismatch repair gene variants receiving surveillance for early cancer diagnosis and treatment: a report from the prospective Lynch syndrome database

BACKGROUND: The Prospective Lynch Syndrome Database (PLSD) collates information on carriers of pathogenic or likely pathogenic MMR variants (path_MMR) who are receiving medical follow-up, including colonoscopy surveillance, which aims to the achieve early diagnosis and treatment of cancers. Here we use the most recent PLSD cohort that is larger and has wider geographical representation than previous versions, allowing us to present mortality as an outcome, and median ages at cancer diagnoses for the first time. METHODS: The PLSD is a prospective observational study without a control group that was designed in 2012 and updated up to October 2022. Data for 8500 carriers of path_MMR variants from 25 countries were included, providing 71,713 years of follow up. Cumulative cancer incidences at 65 years of age were combined with 10-year crude survival following cancer, to derive estimates of mortality up to 75 years of age by organ, gene, and gender. FINDINGS: Gynaecological cancers were more frequent than colorectal cancers in path_MSH2, path_MSH6 and path_PMS2 carriers [cumulative incidence: 53.3%, 49.6% and 23.3% at 75 years, respectively]. Endometrial, colon and ovarian cancer had low mortality [8%, 13% and 15%, respectively] and prostate cancers were frequent in male path_MSH2 carriers [cumulative incidence: 39.7% at 75 years]. Pancreatic, brain, biliary tract and ureter and kidney and urinary bladder cancers were associated with high mortality [83%, 66%, 58%, 27%, and 29%, respectively]. Among path_MMR carriers undergoing colonoscopy surveillance, particularly path_MSH2 carriers, more deaths followed non-colorectal Lynch syndrome cancers than colorectal cancers. INTERPRETATION: In path_MMR carriers undergoing colonoscopy surveillance, non-colorectal Lynch syndrome cancers were associated with more deaths than were colorectal cancers. Reducing deaths from non-colorectal cancers presents a key challenge in contemporary medical care in Lynch syndrome. FUNDING: We acknowledge funding from the Norwegian Cancer Society, contract 194751-2017

The large trans-Neptunian object 2002 TC302 from combined stellar occultation, photometry, and astrometry data

Context. Deriving physical properties of trans-Neptunian objects is important for the understanding of our Solar System. This requires observational efforts and the development of techniques suitable for these studies. Aims. Our aim is to characterize the large trans-Neptunian object (TNO) 2002 TC302. Methods. Stellar occultations offer unique opportunities to determine key physical properties of TNOs. On 28 January 2018, 2002 TC302 occulted a mv ~ 15.3 star with designation 593-005847 in the UCAC4 stellar catalog, corresponding to Gaia source 130957813463146112. Twelve positive occultation chords were obtained from Italy, France, Slovenia, and Switzerland. Also, four negative detections were obtained near the north and south limbs. This represents the best observed stellar occultation by a TNO other than Pluto in terms of the number of chords published thus far. From the 12 chords, an accurate elliptical fit to the instantaneous projection of the body can be obtained that is compatible with the near misses. Results. The resulting ellipse has major and minor axes of 543 ± 18 km and 460 ± 11 km, respectively, with a position angle of 3 ± 1 degrees for the minor axis. This information, combined with rotational light curves obtained with the 1.5 m telescope at Sierra Nevada Observatory and the 1.23 m telescope at Calar Alto observatory, allows us to derive possible three-dimensional shapes and density estimations for the body based on hydrostatic equilibrium assumptions. The effective diameter in equivalent area is around 84 km smaller than the radiometrically derived diameter using thermal data from Herschel and Spitzer Space Telescopes. This might indicate the existence of an unresolved satellite of up to ~300 km in diameter, which is required to account for all the thermal flux, although the occultation and thermal diameters are compatible within their error bars given the considerable uncertainty of the thermal results. The existence of a potential satellite also appears to be consistent with other ground-based data presented here. From the effective occultation diameter combined with absolute magnitude measurements we derive a geometric albedo of 0.147 ± 0.005, which would be somewhat smaller if 2002 TC302 has a satellite. The best occultation light curves do not show any signs of ring features or any signatures of a global atmosphere.Funding from Spanish projects AYA2014-56637-C2-1-P, AYA2017-89637-R, from FEDER, and Proyecto de Excelencia de la Junta de Andalucía 2012-FQM1776 is acknowledged. We would like to acknowledge financial support by the Spanish grant AYA-RTI2018-098657-JI00 “LEO-SBNAF” (MCIU/AEI/FEDER, UE) and the financial support from the State Agency for Research of the Spanish MCIU through the “Center of Excellence Severo Ochoa” award for the Instituto de Astrofísica de Andalucía (SEV- 2017-0709). Part of the research received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme, under grant agreement no. 687378 and from the ERC programme under Grant Agreement no. 669416 Lucky Star. The following authors acknowledge the respective CNPq grants: FB-R 309578/2017-5; RV-M 304544/2017-5, 401903/2016-8; J.I.B.C. 308150/2016-3; MA 427700/2018-3, 310683/2017-3, 473002/2013-2. This study was financed in part by the Coordenação de Aperfeiaçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior - Brasil (CAPES) - Finance Code 001 and the National Institute of Science and Technology of the e-Universe project (INCT do e-Universo, CNPq grant 465376/2014-2). GBR acknowledges CAPES-FAPERJ/PAPDRJ grant E26/203.173/2016, MA FAPERJ grant E-26/111.488/2013 and ARGJr FAPESP grant 2018/11239-8. E.F.-V. acknowledges support from the 2017 Preeminent Postdoctoral Program (P3) at UCF. C.K., R.S., A.F-T., and G.M. have been supported by the K-125015 and GINOP-2.3.2-15-2016-00003 grants of the Hungarian National Research, Development and Innovation Office (NKFIH), Hungary. G.M. was also supported by the Hungarian National Research, Development and Innovation Office (NKFIH) grant PD-128 360. R.K. and T.P. were supported by the VEGA 2/0031/18 grant

Why Are Outcomes Different for Registry Patients Enrolled Prospectively and Retrospectively? Insights from the Global Anticoagulant Registry in the FIELD-Atrial Fibrillation (GARFIELD-AF).

Background: Retrospective and prospective observational studies are designed to reflect real-world evidence on clinical practice, but can yield conflicting results. The GARFIELD-AF Registry includes both methods of enrolment and allows analysis of differences in patient characteristics and outcomes that may result. Methods and Results: Patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) and ≥1 risk factor for stroke at diagnosis of AF were recruited either retrospectively (n = 5069) or prospectively (n = 5501) from 19 countries and then followed prospectively. The retrospectively enrolled cohort comprised patients with established AF (for a least 6, and up to 24 months before enrolment), who were identified retrospectively (and baseline and partial follow-up data were collected from the emedical records) and then followed prospectively between 0-18 months (such that the total time of follow-up was 24 months; data collection Dec-2009 and Oct-2010). In the prospectively enrolled cohort, patients with newly diagnosed AF (≤6 weeks after diagnosis) were recruited between Mar-2010 and Oct-2011 and were followed for 24 months after enrolment. Differences between the cohorts were observed in clinical characteristics, including type of AF, stroke prevention strategies, and event rates. More patients in the retrospectively identified cohort received vitamin K antagonists (62.1% vs. 53.2%) and fewer received non-vitamin K oral anticoagulants (1.8% vs . 4.2%). All-cause mortality rates per 100 person-years during the prospective follow-up (starting the first study visit up to 1 year) were significantly lower in the retrospective than prospectively identified cohort (3.04 [95% CI 2.51 to 3.67] vs . 4.05 [95% CI 3.53 to 4.63]; p = 0.016). Conclusions: Interpretations of data from registries that aim to evaluate the characteristics and outcomes of patients with AF must take account of differences in registry design and the impact of recall bias and survivorship bias that is incurred with retrospective enrolment. Clinical Trial Registration: - URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov . Unique identifier for GARFIELD-AF (NCT01090362)

Improved risk stratification of patients with atrial fibrillation: an integrated GARFIELD-AF tool for the prediction of mortality, stroke and bleed in patients with and without anticoagulation.

OBJECTIVES: To provide an accurate, web-based tool for stratifying patients with atrial fibrillation to facilitate decisions on the potential benefits/risks of anticoagulation, based on mortality, stroke and bleeding risks. DESIGN: The new tool was developed, using stepwise regression, for all and then applied to lower risk patients. C-statistics were compared with CHA2DS2-VASc using 30-fold cross-validation to control for overfitting. External validation was undertaken in an independent dataset, Outcome Registry for Better Informed Treatment of Atrial Fibrillation (ORBIT-AF). PARTICIPANTS: Data from 39 898 patients enrolled in the prospective GARFIELD-AF registry provided the basis for deriving and validating an integrated risk tool to predict stroke risk, mortality and bleeding risk. RESULTS: The discriminatory value of the GARFIELD-AF risk model was superior to CHA2DS2-VASc for patients with or without anticoagulation. C-statistics (95% CI) for all-cause mortality, ischaemic stroke/systemic embolism and haemorrhagic stroke/major bleeding (treated patients) were: 0.77 (0.76 to 0.78), 0.69 (0.67 to 0.71) and 0.66 (0.62 to 0.69), respectively, for the GARFIELD-AF risk models, and 0.66 (0.64-0.67), 0.64 (0.61-0.66) and 0.64 (0.61-0.68), respectively, for CHA2DS2-VASc (or HAS-BLED for bleeding). In very low to low risk patients (CHA2DS2-VASc 0 or 1 (men) and 1 or 2 (women)), the CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS-BLED (for bleeding) scores offered weak discriminatory value for mortality, stroke/systemic embolism and major bleeding. C-statistics for the GARFIELD-AF risk tool were 0.69 (0.64 to 0.75), 0.65 (0.56 to 0.73) and 0.60 (0.47 to 0.73) for each end point, respectively, versus 0.50 (0.45 to 0.55), 0.59 (0.50 to 0.67) and 0.55 (0.53 to 0.56) for CHA2DS2-VASc (or HAS-BLED for bleeding). Upon validation in the ORBIT-AF population, C-statistics showed that the GARFIELD-AF risk tool was effective for predicting 1-year all-cause mortality using the full and simplified model for all-cause mortality: C-statistics 0.75 (0.73 to 0.77) and 0.75 (0.73 to 0.77), respectively, and for predicting for any stroke or systemic embolism over 1 year, C-statistics 0.68 (0.62 to 0.74). CONCLUSIONS: Performance of the GARFIELD-AF risk tool was superior to CHA2DS2-VASc in predicting stroke and mortality and superior to HAS-BLED for bleeding, overall and in lower risk patients. The GARFIELD-AF tool has the potential for incorporation in routine electronic systems, and for the first time, permits simultaneous evaluation of ischaemic stroke, mortality and bleeding risks. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier for GARFIELD-AF (NCT01090362) and for ORBIT-AF (NCT01165710)