Numerical simulations of the possible origin of the two sub-parsec scale and counter-rotating stellar disks around SgrA*

We present a high resolution simulation of an idealized model to explain the origin of the two young, counter-rotating, sub-parsec scale stellar disks around the supermassive black hole SgrA* at the Center of the Milky Way. In our model, the collision of a single molecular cloud with a circum-nuclear gas disk (similar to the one observed presently) leads to multiple streams of gas flowing towards the black hole and creating accretion disks with angular momentum depending on the ratio of cloud and circum-nuclear disk material. The infalling gas creates two inclined, counter-rotating sub-parsec scale accretion disks around the supermassive black hole with the first disk forming roughly 1 Myr earlier, allowing it to fragment into stars and get dispersed before the second, counter-rotating disk forms. Fragmentation of the second disk would lead to the two inclined, counter-rotating stellar disks which are observed at the Galactic Center. A similar event might be happening again right now at the Milky Way Galactic Center. Our model predicts that the collision event generates spiral-like filaments of gas, feeding the Galactic Center prior to disk formation with a geometry and inflow pattern that is in agreement with the structure of the so called mini-spiral that has been detected in the Galactic Center.Comment: 14 pages, 12 figures, submitted to Ap

IMPACTS OF INCORPORATING LAND EXCHANGES BETWEEN FORESTRY AND AGRICULTURE IN SECTOR MODELS

The forest and agriculture sectors are linked by having a portion of their land bases suitable for use in either sector. A substantial part of the southern land base is suitable for either forestry or agriculture use, with most of forestation on U.S. agriculture land in the South. We examine how land exchanges between forestry and agriculture are influenced by specific federal conservation and farm support policies, including changes in the Conservation Reserve Program. Reallocation of land is a significant part of the sectors' responses to the policies, along with intensification of timber management on existing southern forests.Agriculture, Conservation, Forest sector, Land use, Projections, Land Economics/Use,

ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON SOUTHERN FORESTS

A multiperiod regional mathematical programming model is used to evaluate the potential economic impacts of global climatic change on the southern U.S. forestry sector. Scenarios for forest biological response to climate change are developed for small and large changes in forest growth rates. Resulting changes in timber supply have economic impacts on producers and consumers in forest products markets, both nationally and regionally. Conclusions include outer dimensions of global climate change impacts and potential effects of smaller biological responses on the forestry sector both nationally and in the U.S. South. Relative impacts are found to be larger for producers than for consumers, and southern producers experience relatively greater changes in economic welfare.Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

Superposition approach for description of electrical conductivity in sheared MWNT/polycarbonate melts

The theoretical description of electrical properties of polymer melts, filled with attractively interacting conductive particles, represents a great challenge. Such filler particles tend to build a network-like structure which is very fragile and can be easily broken in a shear flow with shear rates of about 1 s–1. In this study, measured shear-induced changes in electrical conductivity of polymer composites are described using a superposition approach, in which the filler particles are separated into a highly conductive percolating and low conductive non-percolating phases. The latter is represented by separated well-dispersed filler particles. It is assumed that these phases determine the effective electrical properties of composites through a type of mixing rule involving the phase volume fractions. The conductivity of the percolating phase is described with the help of classical percolation theory, while the conductivity of non-percolating phase is given by the matrix conductivity enhanced by the presence of separate filler particles. The percolation theory is coupled with a kinetic equation for a scalar structural parameter which describes the current state of filler network under particular flow conditions. The superposition approach is applied to transient shear experiments carried out on polycarbonate composites filled with multi-wall carbon nanotubes

Radiation feedback on dusty clouds during Seyfert activity

We investigate the evolution of dusty gas clouds falling into the centre of an active Seyfert nucleus. Two-dimensional high-resolution radiation hydrodynamics simulations are performed to study the fate of single clouds and the interaction between two clouds approaching the Active Galactic Nucleus. We find three distinct phases of the evolution of the cloud: (i) formation of a lenticular shape with dense inner rim caused by the interaction of gravity and radiation pressure (the lense phase), (ii) formation of a clumpy sickle-shaped structure as the result of a converging flow (the clumpy sickle phase) and (iii) a filamentary phase caused by a rapidly varying optical depth along the sickle. Depending on the column density of the cloud, it will either be pushed outwards or its central (highest column density) parts move inwards, while there is always some material pushed outwards by radiation pressure effects. The general dynamical evolution of the cloud can approximately be described by a simple analytical model.Comment: 13 pages, 18 figures, accepted by MNRA

Agriculture Afforestation for Carbon Sequestration Under Carbon Markets in the United States: Leakage Behavior from Regional Allowance Programs

This study quantifies how leakage behavior from afforesting agricultural land affects the intensification of agricultural production. In particular, we examine the leakage percentage from carbon offset allowance at specific southern regions in the United States as a part of a carbon market. We use the Forest and Agriculture Sector Optimization Model-Greenhouse Gases model to examine responses between sectors as part of the regional afforestation policy analysis. Regional characteristics and a policy's time frame are found to play important roles in achieving net gains, in terms of greenhouse gases stored, from such regional policies. In some cases, however, leakage greater than 100% is evident.Keywords: leakage, economics, Agricultural afforestation, carbon market

Simulations of the Origin and Fate of the Galactic Center Cloud G2

We investigate the origin and fate of the recently discovered gas cloud G2 close to the Galactic Center. Our hydrodynamical simulations focussing on the dynamical evolution of the cloud in combination with currently available observations favor two scenarios: a Compact Cloud which started around the year 1995 and a Spherical Shell of gas, with an apocenter distance within the disk(s) of young stars and a radius of a few times the size of the Compact Cloud. The former is able to explain the detected signal of G2 in the position-velocity diagram of the Br gamma emission of the year 2008.5 and 2011.5 data. The latter can account for both, G2's signal as well as the fainter extended tail-like structure G2t seen at larger distances from the black hole and smaller velocities. In contrast, gas stripped from a compact cloud by hydrodynamical interactions is not able to explain the location of the detected G2t emission in the observed position-velocity diagrams. This favors the Spherical Shell Scenario and might be a severe problem for the Compact Cloud as well as the so-called Compact Source Scenario. From these first idealized simulations we expect a roughly constant feeding of the supermassive black hole through a nozzle-like structure over a long period, starting shortly after the closest approach in 2013.51 for the Compact Cloud. If the matter accretes in the hot accretion mode, we do not expect a significant boost of the current activity of Sgr A* for the Compact Cloud model, but a boost of the average infrared and X-ray luminosity by roughly a factor of 80 for the Spherical Shell scenario with order of magnitude variations on a timescale of a few months. The near-future evolution of the cloud will be a sensitive probe of the conditions of the gas distribution in the milli-parsec environment of the massive black hole in the Galactic Center.Comment: 16 pages, 16 figures, accepted by Ap

Permanence of agricultural afforestation for carbon sequestration under stylized carbon markets in the U.S.

This paper examines the permanence of agricultural land afforestation under stylized carbon markets at the regional level in the US. Attention is focused on Southern and Midwest regions which historically have experienced a relatively large amount of land-use change between the agriculture and forest sectors. The Forest and Agriculture Sector Optimization Model–Greenhouse Gases model is used to examine responses between sectors as part of the regional afforestation policy analysis. Main findings suggest that most of afforested area in the Midwest regions remains unharvested by mid-21th century but a significant percentage of afforested area in the Southern regions shifts back to agricultural uses by this time. We also simulated a policy where carbon sequestration credits paid for afforestation are reduced 40% relative to other mitigation actions. A permanence value reduction for afforestation further promotes the harvesting of afforested stands in the Southern regions. Also, it has an impact not only on grassland pasture but also on high productive cropland. Results of this analysis are robust to lower permanence value reduction rates for higher carbon prices and can serve as upper bound of impacts for lower carbon prices.Keywords: Permanence, Carbon markets, Agricultural afforestation, Economic

Physics of the Galactic Center Cloud G2, on its Way towards the Super-Massive Black Hole

The origin, structure and evolution of the small gas cloud, G2, is investigated, that is on an orbit almost straight into the Galactic central supermassive black hole (SMBH). G2 is a sensitive probe of the hot accretion zone of Sgr A*, requiring gas temperatures and densities that agree well with models of captured shock-heated stellar winds. Its mass is equal to the critical mass below which cold clumps would be destroyed quickly by evaporation. Its mass is also constrained by the fact that at apocenter its sound crossing timescale was equal to its orbital timescale. Our numerical simulations show that the observed structure and evolution of G2 can be well reproduced if it formed in pressure equilibrium with the surrounding in 1995 at a distance from the SMBH of 7.6e16 cm. If the cloud would have formed at apocenter in the 'clockwise' stellar disk as expected from its orbit, it would be torn into a very elongated spaghetti-like filament by 2011 which is not observed. This problem can be solved if G2 is the head of a larger, shell-like structure that formed at apocenter. Our numerical simulations show that this scenario explains not only G2's observed kinematical and geometrical properties but also the Br_gamma observations of a low surface brightness gas tail that trails the cloud. In 2013, while passing the SMBH G2 will break up into a string of droplets that within the next 30 years mix with the surrounding hot gas and trigger cycles of AGN activity.Comment: 22 pages, 13 figures, submitted to Ap

Simulations of Direct Collisions of Gas Clouds with the Central Black Hole

We perform numerical simulations of clouds in the Galactic Centre (GC) engulfing the nuclear super-massive black hole and show that this mechanism leads to the formation of gaseous accretion discs with properties that are similar to the expected gaseous progenitor discs that fragmented into the observed stellar disc in the GC. As soon as the cloud hits the black hole, gas with opposite angular momentum relative to the black hole collides downstream. This process leads to redistribution of angular momentum and dissipation of kinetic energy, resulting in a compact gaseous accretion disc. A parameter study using thirteen high resolution simulations of homogeneous clouds falling onto the black hole and engulfing it in parts demonstrates that this mechanism is able to produce gaseous accretion discs that could potentially be the progenitor of the observed stellar disc in the GC. A comparison of simulations with different equations of state (adiabatic, isothermal and full cooling) demonstrates the importance of including a detailed thermodynamical description. However the simple isothermal approach already yields good results on the radial mass transfer and accretion rates, as well as disc eccentricities and sizes. We find that the cloud impact parameter strongly influences the accretion rate whereas the impact velocity has a small affect on the accretion rate.Comment: 21 pages, 18 figures, Accepted for publication in MNRA