Permanence of agricultural afforestation for carbon sequestration under stylized carbon markets in the U.S.
- Publication date
- Publisher
- 'Elsevier BV'
Abstract
This paper examines the permanence of agricultural land afforestation under stylized carbon markets at the regional
level in the US. Attention is focused on Southern and Midwest regions which historically have experienced
a relatively large amount of land-use change between the agriculture and forest sectors. The Forest and Agriculture
Sector Optimization Model–Greenhouse Gases model is used to examine responses between sectors as part
of the regional afforestation policy analysis. Main findings suggest that most of afforested area in the Midwest regions
remains unharvested by mid-21th century but a significant percentage of afforested area in the Southern
regions shifts back to agricultural uses by this time. We also simulated a policy where carbon sequestration
credits paid for afforestation are reduced 40% relative to other mitigation actions. A permanence value reduction
for afforestation further promotes the harvesting of afforested stands in the Southern regions. Also, it has an
impact not only on grassland pasture but also on high productive cropland. Results of this analysis are robust
to lower permanence value reduction rates for higher carbon prices and can serve as upper bound of impacts
for lower carbon prices.Keywords: Permanence, Carbon markets, Agricultural afforestation, Economic