Livelihood Strategies of Resource-Poor Farmers in Striga-Infested Areas of Western Kenya.

Striga hermonthica (del) Benth is threatening rural livelihoods in western Kenya where maize is the major food and cash crop. Vulnerability analysis was conducted on a sample of 802 households in eight districts of Nyanza and Western provinces. Farmers perceived Striga as the major cause of poverty and food insecurity. Both household income and child nutrition indicators showed alarming conditions for the majority of households. The coping strategies and informal safety nets were not capable of addressing the vulnerability issue successfully. A logistic regression model of determinants of poverty was estimated to examine the determinants and correlates of poverty. Results revealed certain characteristics of households that were more likely to be poor: poor access to land and farm assets; high dependency ratio; headed by older farmer with low education attainment; no off-farm work, no cash crops; depend on credit; Striga has been on the farm for long, high perceived yield loss to Striga given high dependency on maize for livelihoods; adopt no integrated Striga control options; and live in Bondo and Vihiga districts. The paper concludes with implications for policy to improve the livelihoods of small-scale farmers in the Striga-affected areas of western Kenya. Key words: livelihoods, maize, Striga, Kenya, Logitlivelihoods, maize, Kenya, Striga, logit, Agricultural and Food Policy, Community/Rural/Urban Development, Consumer/Household Economics, Environmental Economics and Policy, Farm Management, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Food Security and Poverty, Health Economics and Policy, Land Economics/Use, Marketing, Productivity Analysis, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies,

Spatial analysis of schistosomiasis in Hunan and Jiangxi provinces in the People's Republic of China

Understanding the spatial distribution of schistosome infection is critical for tailoring preventive measures to control and eliminate schistosomiasis. This study used spatial analysis to determine risk factors that may impact Schistosoma japonicum infection and predict risk in Hunan and Jiangxi Provinces in the People's Republic of China. The study employed survey data collected in Hunan and Jiangxi in 2016. Independent variable data were obtained from publicly available sources. Bayesian-based geostatistics was used to build models with covariate fixed effects and spatial random effects to identify factors associated with the spatial distribution of infection. Prevalence of schistosomiasis was higher in Hunan (12.8%) than Jiangxi (2.6%). Spatial distribution of schistosomiasis varied at pixel level (0.1 x 0.1 km), and was significantly associated with distance to nearest waterbody (km, beta = -1.158; 95% credible interval [CrI]: -2.104, -0.116) in Hunan and temperature ( degrees C, beta = -4.359; 95% CrI: -9.641, -0.055) in Jiangxi. The spatial distribution of schistosomiasis in Hunan and Jiangxi varied substantially and was significantly associated with distance to nearest waterbody. Prevalence of schistosomiasis decreased with increasing distance to nearest waterbody in Hunan, indicating that schistosomiasis control should target individuals in close proximity to open water sources as they are at highest risk of infection

Impact of improved maize varieties on food security in Eastern Zambia : A doubly robust analysis

This study investigates the impact of improved maize varieties on household food security in eastern Zambia using household survey data from a sample of over 800 rural households. Since treatment effect estimates are often prone to misspecification in either the treatment or outcome equation, we use the doubly robust inverse probability weighted regression adjustment method, complemented with propensity score matching on six different food security measures to obtain reliable impact estimates. Generally, we find a positive impact of improved maize adoption on food security across the two econometric approaches. Maize being the most important food staple in Zambia has a great bearing on the food security status of farm households. It is therefore imperative that a conducive environment is created that promotes the adoption of maize yield improving technologies.</p

In vivo efficacy of artemether-lumefantrine against uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum malaria in Central Ethiopia

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p><it>In vivo </it>efficacy assessments of the first-line treatments for <it>Plasmodium falciparum </it>malaria are essential for ensuring effective case management. In Ethiopia, artemether-lumefantrine (AL) has been the first-line treatment for uncomplicated <it>P. falciparum </it>malaria since 2004.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Between October and November 2009, we conducted a 42-day, single arm, open label study of AL for <it>P. falciparum </it>in individuals >6 months of age at two sites in Oromia State, Ethiopia. Eligible patients who had documented <it>P. falciparum </it>mono-infection were enrolled and followed according to the standard 2009 World Health Organization <it>in vivo </it>drug efficacy monitoring protocol. The primary and secondary endpoints were PCR uncorrected and corrected cure rates, as measured by adequate clinical and parasitological response on days 28 and 42, respectively.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Of 4426 patients tested, 120 with confirmed falciparum malaria were enrolled and treated with AL. Follow-up was completed for 112 patients at day 28 and 104 patients at day 42. There was one late parasitological failure, which was classified as undetermined after genotyping. Uncorrected cure rates at both day 28 and 42 for the per protocol analysis were 99.1% (95% CI 95.1-100.0); corrected cure rates at both day 28 and 42 were 100.0%. Uncorrected cure rates at day 28 and 42 for the intention to treat analysis were 93.3% (95% CI 87.2-97.1) and 86.6% (95% CI 79.1-92.1), respectively, while the corrected cure rates at day 28 and 42 were 94.1% (95% CI 88.2-97.6) and 87.3% (95% CI 79.9-92.7), respectively. Using survival analysis, the unadjusted cure rate was 99.1% and 100.0% adjusted by genotyping for day 28 and 42, respectively. Eight <it>P. falciparum </it>patients (6.7%) presented with <it>Plasmodium vivax </it>infection during follow-up and were excluded from the per protocol analysis. Only one patient had persistent parasitaemia at day 3. No serious adverse events were reported, with cough and nausea/vomiting being the most common adverse events.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>AL remains a highly effective and well-tolerated treatment for uncomplicated falciparum malaria in the study setting after several years of universal access to AL. A high rate of parasitaemia with <it>P. vivax </it>possibly from relapse or new infection was observed.</p> <p>Trial Registration</p> <p><a href="http://www.clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT01052584">NCT01052584</a></p

Global, regional, and national sex-specific burden and control of the HIV epidemic, 1990–2019, for 204 countries and territories: the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2019

Background: The sustainable development goals (SDGs) aim to end HIV/AIDS as a public health threat by 2030. Understanding the current state of the HIV epidemic and its change over time is essential to this effort. This study assesses the current sex-specific HIV burden in 204 countries and territories and measures progress in the control of the epidemic. Methods: To estimate age-specific and sex-specific trends in 48 of 204 countries, we extended the Estimation and Projection Package Age-Sex Model to also implement the spectrum paediatric model. We used this model in cases where age and sex specific HIV-seroprevalence surveys and antenatal care-clinic sentinel surveillance data were available. For the remaining 156 of 204 locations, we developed a cohort-incidence bias adjustment to derive incidence as a function of cause-of-death data from vital registration systems. The incidence was input to a custom Spectrum model. To assess progress, we measured the percentage change in incident cases and deaths between 2010 and 2019 (threshold &gt;75% decline), the ratio of incident cases to number of people living with HIV (incidence-to-prevalence ratio threshold &lt;0·03), and the ratio of incident cases to deaths (incidence-to-mortality ratio threshold &lt;1·0). Findings: In 2019, there were 36·8 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 35·1–38·9) people living with HIV worldwide. There were 0·84 males (95% UI 0·78–0·91) per female living with HIV in 2019, 0·99 male infections (0·91–1·10) for every female infection, and 1·02 male deaths (0·95–1·10) per female death. Global progress in incident cases and deaths between 2010 and 2019 was driven by sub-Saharan Africa (with a 28·52% decrease in incident cases, 95% UI 19·58–35·43, and a 39·66% decrease in deaths, 36·49–42·36). Elsewhere, the incidence remained stable or increased, whereas deaths generally decreased. In 2019, the global incidence-to-prevalence ratio was 0·05 (95% UI 0·05–0·06) and the global incidence-to-mortality ratio was 1·94 (1·76–2·12). No regions met suggested thresholds for progress. Interpretation: Sub-Saharan Africa had both the highest HIV burden and the greatest progress between 1990 and 2019. The number of incident cases and deaths in males and females approached parity in 2019, although there remained more females with HIV than males with HIV. Globally, the HIV epidemic is far from the UNAIDS benchmarks on progress metrics. Funding: The Bill &amp; Melinda Gates Foundation, the National Institute of Mental Health of the US National Institutes of Health (NIH), and the National Institute on Aging of the NIH

Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality and life expectancy, 1950-2017 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background Assessments of age-specific mortality and life expectancy have been done by the UN Population Division, Department of Economics and Social Affairs (UNPOP), the United States Census Bureau, WHO, and as part of previous iterations of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD). Previous iterations of the GBD used population estimates from UNPOP, which were not derived in a way that was internally consistent with the estimates of the numbers of deaths in the GBD. The present iteration of the GBD, GBD 2017, improves on previous assessments and provides timely estimates of the mortality experience of populations globally. Methods The GBD uses all available data to produce estimates of mortality rates between 1950 and 2017 for 23 age groups, both sexes, and 918 locations, including 195 countries and territories and subnational locations for 16 countries. Data used include vital registration systetns, sample registration systetns, household surveys (complete birth histories, summary birth histories, sibling histories), censuses (summary birth histories, household deaths), and Demographic Surveillance Sites. In total, this analysis used 8259 data sources. Estimates of the probability of death between birth and the age of 5 years and between ages 15 and 60 years are generated and then input into a model life table system to produce complete life tables for all locations and years. Fatal discontinuities and mortality due to HIV/AIDS are analysed separately and then incorporated into the estimation. We analyse the relationship between age-specific mortality and development status using the Socio-demographic Index, a composite measure based on fertility under the age of 25 years, education, and income. There are four main methodological improvements in GBD 2017 compared with GBD 2016: 622 additional data sources have been incorporated; new estimates of population, generated by the GBD study, are used; statistical methods used in different components of the analysis have been further standardised and improved; and the analysis has been extended backwards in time by two decades to start in 1950. Findings Globally, 18.7% (95% uncertainty interval 18.4-19.0) of deaths were registered in 1950 and that proportion has been steadily increasing since, with 58.8% (58.2-59.3) of all deaths being registered in 2015. At the global level, between 1950 and 2017, life expectancy increased from 48.1 years (46.5-49.6) to 70.5 years (70.1-70.8) for men and from 52.9 years (51.7-54.0) to 75.6 years (75.3-75.9) for women. Despite this overall progress, there remains substantial variation in life expectancy at birth in 2017, which ranges from 49.1 years (46.5-51.7) for men in the Central African Republic to 87.6 years (86.9-88.1) among women in Singapore. The greatest progress across age groups was for children younger than 5 years; under-5 mortality dropped from 216.0 deaths (196.3-238.1) per 1000 livebirths in 1950 to 38.9 deaths (35.6-42.83) per 1000 livebirths in 2017, with huge reductions across countries. Nevertheless, there were still 5.4 million (5.2-5.6) deaths among children younger than 5 years in the world in 2017. Progress has been less pronounced and more variable for adults, especially for adult tnales, who had stagnant or increasing mortality rates in several countries. The gap between male and female life expectancy between 1950 and 2017, while relatively stable at the global level, shows distinctive patterns across super-regions and has consistently been the largest in central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia, and smallest in south Asia. Performance was also variable across countries and time in observed mortality rates compared with those expected on the basis of development. Interpretation This analysis of age-sex-specific mortality shows that there are remarkably complex patterns in population mortality across countries. The findings of this study highlight global successes, such as the large decline in under-5 mortality, which reflects significant local, national, and global commitment and investment over several decades. However, they also bring attention to mortality patterns that are a cause for concern, particularly among adult men and, to a lesser extent, wotnen, whose mortality rates have stagnated in many countries over the time period of this study, and in some cases are increasing. Copyright C) 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.Peer reviewe

Demographic, socio-economic, and cultural factors affecting fertility differentials in Nepal

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Traditionally Nepalese society favors high fertility. Children are a symbol of well-being both socially and economically. Although fertility has been decreasing in Nepal since 1981, it is still high compared to many other developing countries. This paper is an attempt to examine the demographic, socio-economic, and cultural factors for fertility differentials in Nepal.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>This paper has used data from the Nepal Demographic and Health Survey (NDHS 2006). The analysis is confined to ever married women of reproductive age (8,644). Both bivariate and multivariate analyses have been performed to describe the fertility differentials. The bivariate analysis (one-way ANOVA) was applied to examine the association between children ever born and women's demographic, socio-economic, and cultural characteristics. Besides bivariate analysis, the net effect of each independent variable on the dependent variable after controlling for the effect of other predictors has also been measured through multivariate analysis (multiple linear regressions).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The mean numbers of children ever born (CEB) among married Nepali women of reproductive age and among women aged 40-49 were three and five children, respectively. There are considerable differentials in the average number of children ever born according to women's demographic, socio-economic, and cultural settings. Regression analysis revealed that age at first marriage, perceived ideal number of children, place of residence, literacy status, religion, mass media exposure, use of family planning methods, household headship, and experience of child death were the most important variables that explained the variance in fertility. Women who considered a higher number of children as ideal (β = 0.03; p < 0.001), those who resided in rural areas (β = 0.02; p < 0.05), Muslim women (β = 0.07; p < 0.001), those who had ever used family planning methods (β = 0.08; p < 0.001), and those who had a child-death experience (β = 0.31; p < 0.001) were more likely to have a higher number of CEB compared to their counterparts. On the other hand, those who married at a later age (β = -0.15; p < 0.001), were literate (β = -0.05; p < 0.001), were exposed to both (radio/TV) mass media (β = -0.05; p < 0.001), were richest (β = -0.12; p < 0.001), and were from female-headed households (β = -0.02; p < 0.05) had a lower number of children ever born than their counterparts.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The average number of children ever born is high among women in Nepal. There are many contributing factors for the high fertility, among which are age at first marriage, perceived ideal number of children, literacy status, mass media exposure, wealth status, and child-death experience by mothers. All of these were strong predictors for CEB. It can be concluded that programs should aim to reduce fertility rates by focusing on these identified factors so that fertility as well as infant and maternal mortality and morbidity will be decreased and the overall well-being of the family maintained and enhanced.</p

Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

© 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation