Are carbon futures prices stable? New evidence during negative oil

We investigate volatility spillovers from West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil to carbon emission allowance futures, focusing on the period surrounding the WTI negative pricing event of April 2020. Results evidence, pre-negative WTI, a doubling of directional spillover from WTI oil to carbon allowance futures upon the global spread of COVID-19, with a sharp elevation of directional spillover from WTI oil to carbon allowances during the specific period of negative WTI. This extraordinary rise in directional spillover continued past the near-term contract through several ensuing contracts. Results suggest that carbon futures markets are highly sensitive to periods of fragility.</p

A qualitative study about immigrant workers’ perceptions of their working conditions in Spain

Background: Spain has recently become an inward migration country. Little is known about the occupational health of immigrant workers. This study aimed to explore the perceptions that immigrant workers in Spain had of their working conditions. Methods: Qualitative, exploratory, descriptive study. Criterion sampling. Data collected between September 2006 and May 2007 through semi-structured focus groups and individual interviews, with a topic guide. One hundred and fifty-eight immigrant workers (90 men/68 women) from Colombia (n = 21), Morocco (n = 39), sub-Saharan Africa (n = 29), Romania (n = 44) and Ecuador (n = 25), who were authorised (documented) or unauthorised (undocumented) residents in five medium to large cities in Spain. Results: Participants described poor working conditions, low pay and health hazards. Perception of hazards appeared to be related to gender and job sector. Informants were highly segregated into jobs by sex, however, so this issue will need further exploration. Undocumented workers described poorer conditions than documented workers, which they attributed to their documentation status. Documented participants also felt vulnerable because of their immigrant status. Informants believed that deficient language skills, non-transferability of their education and training and, most of all, their immigrant status and economic need left them with little choice but to work under poor conditions. Conclusions: The occupational health needs of immigrant workers must be addressed at the job level, while improving the enforcement of existing health and safety regulations. The roles that documentation status and economic need played in these informants’ work experiences should be considered and how these may influence health outcomes.Garcia Garcia, Ana Maria, [email protected]

Immigration, work and health in Spain: the influence of legal status and employment contract on reported health indicators

Objective To analyze the relationship of legal status and employment conditions with health indicators in foreign-born and Spanish-born workers in Spain. Methods Cross-sectional study of 1,849 foreign-born and 509 Spanish-born workers (2008–2009, ITSAL Project). Considered employment conditions: permanent, temporary and no contract (foreign-born and Spanish-born); considered legal statuses: documented and undocumented (foreign-born). Joint relationships with self-rated health (SRH) and mental health (MH) were analyzed via logistical regression. Results When compared with male permanently contracted Spanish-born workers, worse health is seen in undocumented foreign-born, time in Spain ≤3 years (SRH aOR 2.68, 95% CI 1.09–6.56; MH aOR 2.26, 95% CI 1.15–4.42); in Spanish-born, temporary contracts (SRH aOR 2.40, 95% CI 1.04–5.53); and in foreign-born, temporary contracts, time in Spain >3 years (MH: aOR 1.96, 95% CI 1.13–3.38). In females, highest self-rated health risks are in foreign-born, temporary contracts (aOR 2.36, 95% CI 1.13–4.91) and without contracts, time in Spain >3 years (aOR 4.63, 95% CI 1.95–10.97). Conclusions Contract type is a health determinant in both foreign-born and Spanish-born workers. This study offers an uncommon exploration of undocumented migration and raises methodological issues to consider in future research.The study was funded partially by Fondo de Investigaciones Sanitarias [Spanish Fund for Health Research] grant numbers FIS PI050497, PI052334, PI061701

The economic costs, management and regulation of biological invasions in the Nordic countries

A collective understanding of economic impacts and in particular of monetary costs of biological invasions is lacking for the Nordic region. This paper synthesizes findings from the literature on costs of invasions in the Nordic countries together with expert elicitation. The analysis of cost data has been made possible through the InvaCost database, a globally open repository of monetary costs that allows for the use of temporal, spatial, and taxonomic descriptors facilitating a better understanding of how costs are distributed. The total reported costs of invasive species across the Nordic countries were estimated at $8.35 billion (in 2017 US$ values) with damage costs significantly outweighing management costs. Norway incurred the highest costs ($3.23 billion), followed by Denmark ($2.20 billion), Sweden ($1.45 billion), Finland ($1.11 billion) and Iceland ($25.45 million). Costs from invasions in the Nordics appear to be largely underestimated. We conclude by highlighting such knowledge gaps, including gaps in policies and regulation stemming from expert judgment as well as avenues for an improved understanding of invasion costs and needs for future research

Sickness presenteeism in Spanish-born and immigrant workers in Spain

<p>Abstract</p> <p><b>Background</b></p> <p>Previous studies have shown that immigrant workers face relatively worse working and employment conditions, as well as lower rates of sickness absence than native-born workers. This study aims to assess rates of sickness presenteeism in a sample of Spanish-born and foreign-born workers according to different characteristics.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A cross-sectional survey was conducted amongst a convenience sample of workers (Spanish-born and foreign-born), living in four Spanish cities: Barcelona, Huelva, Madrid and Valencia (2008-2009). Sickness presenteeism information was collected through two items in the questionnaire ("Have you had health problems in the last year?" and "Have you ever had to miss work for any health problem?") and was defined as worker who had a health problem (answered yes, first item) and had not missed work (answered no, second item). For the analysis, the sample of 2,059 workers (1,617 foreign-born) who answered yes to health problems was included. After descriptives, logistic regressions were used to establish the association between origin country and sickness presenteeism (adjusted odds ratios aOR; 95% confidence interval 95%CI). Analyses were stratified per time spent in Spain among foreign-born workers.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>All of the results refer to the comparison between foreign-born and Spanish-born workers as a whole, and in some categories relating to personal and occupational conditions. Foreign-born workers were more likely to report sickness presenteeism compared with their Spanish-born counterparts, especially those living in Spain for under 2 years [Prevalence: 42% in Spanish-born and 56.3% in Foreign-born; aOR 1.77 95%CI 1.24-2.53]. In case of foreign-born workers (with time in Spain < 2 years), men [aOR 2.31 95%CI 1.40-3.80], those with university studies [aOR 3.01 95%CI 1.04-8.69], temporary contracts [aOR 2.26 95%CI 1.29-3.98] and salaries between 751-1,200€ per month [aOR 1.74 95% CI 1.04-2.92] were more likely to report sickness presenteeism. Also, recent immigrants with good self-perceived health and good mental health were more likely to report presenteeism than Spanish-born workers with the same good health indicators.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Immigrant workers report more sickness presenteeism than their Spanish-born counterparts. These results could be related to precarious work and employment conditions of immigrants. Immigrant workers should benefit from the same standards of social security, and of health and safety in the workplace that are enjoyed by Spanish workers.</p

The effect of perceived discrimination on the health of immigrant workers in Spain

Background: Discrimination is an important determinant of health inequalities, and immigrants may be more vulnerable to certain types of discrimination than the native-born. This study analyses the relationship between immigrants' perceived discrimination and various self-reported health indicators. Methods: A cross-sectional survey was conducted (2008) amongst a non-random sample of 2434 immigrants from Ecuador, Morocco, Romania and Colombia in four Spanish cities: Barcelona, Huelva, Madrid and Valencia. A factorial analysis of variables revealed three dimensions of perceived discrimination (due to immigrant status, due to physical appearance, and workplace-related). The association of these dimensions with self-rated health, mental health (GHQ-12), change in self-rated health between origin and host country, and other self-reported health outcomes was analysed. Logistic regression was used adjusting for potential confounders (aOR-95%CI). Subjects with worsening self-reported health status potentially attributable to perceived discrimination was estimated (population attributable proportion, PAP %). Results: 73.3% of men and 69.3% of women immigrants reported discrimination due to immigrant status. Moroccans showed the highest prevalence of perceived discrimination. Immigrants reporting discrimination were at significantly higher risk of reporting health problems than those not reporting discrimination. Workplace-related discrimination was associated with poor mental health (aOR 2.97 95%CI 2.45-3.60), and the worsening of self-rated health (aOR 2.20 95%CI 1.73- 2.80). 40% (95% CI 24-53) PAP of those reporting worse self-rated health could be attributable to discrimination due to immigrant status. Conclusions: Discrimination may constitute a risk factor for health in immigrant workers in Spain and could explain some health inequalities among immigrant populations in Spanish society.This work was supported by the following sources: Carolina Foundation (Spain), Healthcare Research Fund of the Spanish Ministry of Health and Consumption (references PI050497, PI052202, PI052334, PI061701, and PI0790470

The economic costs, management and regulation of biological invasions in the Nordic countries

A collective understanding of economic impacts and in particular of monetary costs of biological invasions is lacking for the Nordic region. This paper synthesizes findings from the literature on costs of invasions in the Nordic countries together with expert elicitation. The analysis of cost data has been made possible through the InvaCost database, a globally open repository of monetary costs that allows for the use of temporal, spatial, and taxonomic descriptors facilitating a better understanding of how costs are distributed. The total reported costs of invasive species across the Nordic countries were estimated at $8.35 billion (in 2017 US$ values) with damage costs significantly outweighing management costs. Norway incurred the highest costs ($3.23 billion), followed by Denmark ($2.20 billion), Sweden ($1.45 billion), Finland ($1.11 billion) and Iceland ($25.45 million). Costs from invasions in the Nordics appear to be largely underestimated. We conclude by highlighting such knowledge gaps, including gaps in policies and regulation stemming from expert judgment as well as avenues for an improved understanding of invasion costs and needs for future research.</p

Does the Size of the Government Consumption Multiplier for Finland Vary Over Time?

This background paper provides new empirical evidence on the size of the Finnish fiscal policy multiplier for the period from 1975 to 2018. Using the tools of Bayesian time-varying parameters approach, I estimate a time-varying multiplier for government consumption for Finland. Based on the research results, it is not possible to conclude whether the government consumption multiplier has varied over time or not.nonPeerReviewe

Hyperparametrien optimointi TVC VAR -mallille Suomen aineistolla

Tutkielmani tarkoituksena on osoittaa, että hyperparametrien valinta on merkittävässä osassa Primicerin (2005) ja Del Negron ja Primicerin (2015) bayesialaisella ajassa liikkuvien kertoimien vektoriautoregressiivisellä mallilla (TVC VAR) mallintaessa. Tutkielmani tulokset korostavat hyperparametrien valinnassa käytettävän menetelmän tärkeyttä. TVC VAR -malli soveltuu muun muassa raha- tai talouspolitiikan muutosten mallintamiseen. Malli ottaa huomioon sekä muutokset talous- ja rahapolitiikassa että muutokset yksityisen sektorin käyttäytymisessä. Erityisesti yksityisen sektorin käyttäytymismuutosten sisällyttäminen malliin tekee siitä kiinnostavan, sillä yksityisellä sektorin käyttäytymisellä on suuri vaikutus kansantalouden reagointiin raha- ja talouspolitiikan muutoksiin. Haasteena TVC VAR -mallin kaltaisissa monimutkaisissa matemaattisissa malleissa on se, että mallien onnistunut soveltaminen saattaa tuottaa kompromisseja tulosten objektiivisuuden suhteen. Bayesilaisen lähestymistavan hyperparametreilla on merkittävä rooli TVC VAR -mallin sovelluksissa. Primicerin (2005) kuvaus hänen hyperparametriensä valitsemiseen käyttämästään lähestymistavasta ei ole yksiselitteisen selkeä. TVC VAR -mallin tuloksiin vaikuttavien hyperparametrien määrä on pieni, minkä vuoksi parametrien tietoinen valinta haluttujen ja ennalta päätettyjen tulosten saamiseksi saattaa olla mahdollista. Tutkimuskysymykseni voidaan tiivistää seuraavasti: onko tutkijan mahdollista tietoisesti säätää TVC VAR -mallin toimintaa siten, että malli tuottaa hänen ennakolta päättämiään tuloksia? Analysoin tutkimuksessani TVC VAR - mallin hyperparametrien tietoisen valinnan vaikutusta käyttämällä nykyaikaisia numeerisen optimoinnin menetelmiä. En analysoi hyperparametrien vaikutusta kattavasti vaan käytän idean toimivuuden osoittavaa osaratkaisua, eli niin sanottua proof-of-concept -todistusta. Käytän Suomen julkisen kulutuksen kerrointa esimerkkinä siksi, että Primicerin käyttämät hyperparametrien arvot on tarkoitettu Yhdysvaltojen aineiston tarkasteluun. Kansantalouksien erojen vuoksi Suomelle on valittava toisenlaiset parametrien arvot. Analyysini tulosten mukaan Suomen julkisen kulutuksen kerrointa on mahdollista muokata haluttuun suuntaan valitsemalla hyperparametrien arvot tietoisesti. Ensisilmäyksellä mielekkäiltä vaikuttavat hyperparametrien arvojen yhdistelmät tuottavat huomattavan erilaiset tulokset, joiden pohjalta tehtävät johtopäätökset olisivat erilaisia. Tutkimustulokseni osoittavat, että TVC VAR -malli voidaan säätää tuottamaan halutun suuntaisia tuloksia hyperparametrien tietoisella valinnalla. Tämä tarkoittaa sitä, että mallin luotettavuus ei ole optimaalinen ilman objektiivista ja huolellisesti dokumentoitua menetelmää hyperparametrien valinnalle. Tulokseni korostavat tarvetta kattavalle, objektiiviselle ja empiiriseen aineistoon perustuvalle menetelmälle TVC VAR -mallin hyperparametrien valitsemiseksi.The aim of this thesis is to demonstrate the importance of selecting feasible and, preferably data-based prior assumptions for the Bayesian time-varying coefficient vector autoregressive model (TVC VAR model for further reference) of Primiceri (2005) and Del Negro and Primiceri (2015). The TVC VAR model would be suitable for quantifying, for example, the impacts of different monetary policy or fiscal policy regimes. The biggest advantage of the TVC VAR model is that it takes into account both changes in economic policy and in the private sector behaviour. The latter feature makes the model very compelling to use, because the private sector plays an important role in facilitating mote stable change in monetary and fiscal policy regimes. In complex mathematical models, such as the TVC VAR model, the objectiveness of the model may be compromised by deliberate selection of parameters. The TVC VAR model uses the Bayesian approach, which means that the researcher’s choice for the prior assumptions for the model plays an important role in the estimation. Unfortunately, Primiceri’s (2005) approach for selecting hyperparameters for the model is poorly explained and difficult to follow. Given that the model depends only for a small number of hyperparameters, it might be possible that the model can be tuned in a predefined way. To investigate whether the TVC VAR model can be tuned according to a researcher’s preferences, I design a proof of concept approach for optimising the hyperparameters of the model according to a set of predefined results. In other words, my research question is: could one tune the TVC VAR model to produce results according to the researcher’s bias? In my proof of concept approach I tune the TVC VAR model for six different targets for the Finnish government consumption multiplier. Given that Finland is a small open economy, Primiceri’s (2005) original hyperparameter values for the United States are not feasible and other values have to be used. The results from my proof of concept analysis show that the TVC VAR model can be tuned for predefined results, which shows that the practical reliability of the model can be easily compromised. My findings highlight the need for a comprehensible, data-based approach for selecting the hyperparameters for the model

Are carbon futures prices stable? New evidence during negative oil

We investigate volatility spillovers from West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil to carbon emission allowance futures, focusing on the period surrounding the WTI negative pricing event of April 2020. Results evidence, pre-negative WTI, a doubling of directional spillover from WTI oil to carbon allowance futures upon the global spread of COVID-19, with a sharp elevation of directional spillover from WTI oil to carbon allowances during the specific period of negative WTI. This extraordinary rise in directional spillover continued past the near-term contract through several ensuing contracts. Results suggest that carbon futures markets are highly sensitive to periods of fragility.</p