Decadal Assessment and Distribution of Rainfall Anomaly Index (1991 – 2020) for Benin City, Edo State, Nigeria

This study was designed to provide valuable insight into the temporal patterns of rainfall in Benin City, Edo State, Nigeria using rainfall data from 1991 – 2020 (30 years) collected from Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET), airport station, Benin City. The data were assessed based on 10 years interval (decade) identified as decadal A (1991-2000), decadal B (2001-2010) and decadal C (2011-2020). The data was analysed descriptively using charts and graphs. Also, Rainfall Anomaly Index (RAI) was determined for each decadal. Findings from the study reveal that rainfall pattern changes significantly based on statistics for each decadal. In decadal A, rainfall usually began in the month of July to October, June to September in decadal B while May to September in decadal C with rainfall going above the annual precipitation (2679 mm) for the City. The rainfall anomaly over the city revealed that there was a composite nature in which some dry years were mixed with wet years and vice versa and this occurred in all decades. RAI revealed that decadal C recorded the highest number of years (7) of intense rainfall compared to decadal A and B. The trend for the average annual rainfall showed a significant trend based on the decade. The average annual rainfall increased with time (decade) as the trend rose from 1886.9 mm in decade A to 1890.0mm in decade B and 2078.8 mm in decade C. The year of greatest positive value was 2016 (decadal C), with an average RAI of 6.53 classified as extremely humid. Based on these findings, the study concludes that the climate in Benin City has significantly changed

An Assessment of the UK’s Trade with Developing Countries under the Generalised System of Preferences

The European Union (EU) Generalised System of Preferences (GSP Scheme) grants preferential treatment to 88 eligible countries. There are, however, concerns that the restrictive features (such as Rules of Origin, Low Preference Margin and Low Coverage) of the existing scheme indicate gravitation towards commercial trade agenda to which efficiency imperatives appear subordinated. Whether these concerns are genuine is an empirical question whose answer largely determines whether, after Brexit, the UK continues with the existing specifics of the EU scheme or develops a more inclusive UK-specific GSP framework. This study quantitatively examines the efficiency of the EU GSP as it relates to UK beneficiaries from 2014 to 2017. We draw on the descriptive efficiency estimation (The utilisation Rate, Potential Coverage Rate, and the Utility Rate) using import data across 88 beneficiary countries and agricultural products of the Harmonised System Code Chapter 1 to 24. Asides the Rules of Origin that, generally, harm the uptake of GSP, low preference margin is found to cause low utilisation rates in a non-linear manner. Essentially, a more robust option (such that allows “global Cumulation” or broader product coverage) could, substantially, lower the existing barriers to trade and upsurge the efficiency of the GSP scheme

Consequences of Covid-19 on the Social Isolation of the Chinese Economy: Accounting for the Role of Reduction in Carbon Emissions

The main contribution of the present study to the energy literature is linked to the interaction between economic growth and pollution emission amidst globalization. Unlike other studies, this research explores the effect of economic and social isolation as a dimension of globalization. This allows underpinning the effects on the Chinese economic development of the isolation phenomenon as a consequence of coronavirus (COVID-19). To this end, annual time frequency data is used to achieve the hypothesized claims. The study resolutions include (i) The existence of a long-run equilibrium bond between the outlined variables (ii) The long-run estimates suggest that the Chinese economy over the investigated period, is inelastic to pollutant–driven economic growth as reported by the dynamic ordinary least squares, fully modified ordinary least squares and canonical regressions with a magnitude of 0.09%. (iii) The Chinese isolation is less responsive to its economic growth while the country political willpower is elastic as demonstrated by current government commitment to dampen the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic. This is marked by the aggressive response on the government officials resolute by flattening the exponential impact of the pandemic. Based on these robust results some far-reaching policy implication(s) are underlined in the concluding remark section

Cost-effectiveness of adjunct non-pharmacological interventions for osteoarthritis of the knee

BACKGROUND: There is limited information on the costs and benefits of alternative adjunct non-pharmacological treatments for knee osteoarthritis and little guidance on which should be prioritised for commissioning within the NHS. This study estimates the costs and benefits of acupuncture, braces, heat treatment, insoles, interferential therapy, laser/light therapy, manual therapy, neuromuscular electrical stimulation, pulsed electrical stimulation, pulsed electromagnetic fields, static magnets and transcutaneous electrical nerve Stimulation (TENS), based on all relevant data, to facilitate a more complete assessment of value. METHODS: Data from 88 randomised controlled trials including 7,507 patients were obtained from a systematic review. The studies reported a wide range of outcomes. These were converted into EQ-5D index values using prediction models, and synthesised using network meta-analysis. Analyses were conducted including firstly all trials and secondly only trials with low risk of selection bias. Resource use was estimated from trials, expert opinion and the literature. A decision analytic model synthesised all evidence to assess interventions over a typical treatment period (constant benefit over eight weeks or linear increase in effect over weeks zero to eight and dissipation over weeks eight to 16). RESULTS: When all trials are considered, TENS is cost-effective at thresholds of £20-30,000 per QALY with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of £2,690 per QALY vs. usual care. When trials with a low risk of selection bias are considered, acupuncture is cost-effective with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of £13,502 per QALY vs. TENS. The results of the analysis were sensitive to varying the intensity, with which interventions were delivered, and the magnitude and duration of intervention effects on EQ-5D. CONCLUSIONS: Using the £20,000 per QALY NICE threshold results in TENS being cost-effective if all trials are considered. If only higher quality trials are considered, acupuncture is cost-effective at this threshold, and thresholds down to £14,000 per QALY

Small individual loans and mental health: a randomized controlled trial among South African adults

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>In the developing world, access to small, individual loans has been variously hailed as a poverty-alleviation tool – in the context of "microcredit" – but has also been criticized as "usury" and harmful to vulnerable borrowers. Prior studies have assessed effects of access to credit on traditional economic outcomes for poor borrowers, but effects on mental health have been largely ignored.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Applicants who had previously been rejected (n = 257) for a loan (200% annual percentage rate – APR) from a lender in South Africa were randomly assigned to a "second-look" that encouraged loan officers to approve their applications. This randomized encouragement resulted in 53% of applicants receiving a loan they otherwise would not have received. All subjects were assessed 6–12 months later with questions about demographics, socio-economic status, and two indicators of mental health: the Center for Epidemiologic Studies – Depression Scale (CES-D) and Cohen's Perceived Stress scale. Intent-to-treat analyses were calculated using multinomial probit regressions.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Randomization into receiving a "second look" for access to credit increased perceived stress in the combined sample of women and men; the findings were stronger among men. Credit access was associated with reduced depressive symptoms in men, but not women.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Our findings suggest that a mechanism used to reduce the economic stress of extremely poor individuals can have mixed effects on their experiences of psychological stress and depressive symptomatology. Our data support the notion that mental health should be included as a measure of success (or failure) when examining potential tools for poverty alleviation. Further longitudinal research is needed in South Africa and other settings to understand how borrowing at high interest rates affects gender roles and daily life activities. CCT: ISRCTN 10734925</p

In Vitro Evolution of Allergy Vaccine Candidates, with Maintained Structure, but Reduced B Cell and T Cell Activation Capacity

Allergy and asthma to cat (Felis domesticus) affects about 10% of the population in affluent countries. Immediate allergic symptoms are primarily mediated via IgE antibodies binding to B cell epitopes, whereas late phase inflammatory reactions are mediated via activated T cell recognition of allergen-specific T cell epitopes. Allergen-specific immunotherapy relieves symptoms and is the only treatment inducing a long-lasting protection by induction of protective immune responses. The aim of this study was to produce an allergy vaccine designed with the combined features of attenuated T cell activation, reduced anaphylactic properties, retained molecular integrity and induction of efficient IgE blocking IgG antibodies for safer and efficacious treatment of patients with allergy and asthma to cat. The template gene coding for rFel d 1 was used to introduce random mutations, which was subsequently expressed in large phage libraries. Despite accumulated mutations by up to 7 rounds of iterative error-prone PCR and biopanning, surface topology and structure was essentially maintained using IgE-antibodies from cat allergic patients for phage enrichment. Four candidates were isolated, displaying similar or lower IgE binding, reduced anaphylactic activity as measured by their capacity to induce basophil degranulation and, importantly, a significantly lower T cell reactivity in lymphoproliferative assays compared to the original rFel d 1. In addition, all mutants showed ability to induce blocking antibodies in immunized mice.The approach presented here provides a straightforward procedure to generate a novel type of allergy vaccines for safer and efficacious treatment of allergic patients

Effects of antiplatelet therapy on stroke risk by brain imaging features of intracerebral haemorrhage and cerebral small vessel diseases: subgroup analyses of the RESTART randomised, open-label trial

Background Findings from the RESTART trial suggest that starting antiplatelet therapy might reduce the risk of recurrent symptomatic intracerebral haemorrhage compared with avoiding antiplatelet therapy. Brain imaging features of intracerebral haemorrhage and cerebral small vessel diseases (such as cerebral microbleeds) are associated with greater risks of recurrent intracerebral haemorrhage. We did subgroup analyses of the RESTART trial to explore whether these brain imaging features modify the effects of antiplatelet therapy

Antiplatelet therapy with aspirin, clopidogrel, and dipyridamole versus clopidogrel alone or aspirin and dipyridamole in patients with acute cerebral ischaemia (TARDIS): a randomised, open-label, phase 3 superiority trial

Background: Intensive antiplatelet therapy with three agents might be more effective than guideline treatment for preventing recurrent events in patients with acute cerebral ischaemia. We aimed to compare the safety and efficacy of intensive antiplatelet therapy (combined aspirin, clopidogrel, and dipyridamole) with that of guideline-based antiplatelet therapy. Methods: We did an international, prospective, randomised, open-label, blinded-endpoint trial in adult participants with ischaemic stroke or transient ischaemic attack (TIA) within 48 h of onset. Participants were assigned in a 1:1 ratio using computer randomisation to receive loading doses and then 30 days of intensive antiplatelet therapy (combined aspirin 75 mg, clopidogrel 75 mg, and dipyridamole 200 mg twice daily) or guideline-based therapy (comprising either clopidogrel alone or combined aspirin and dipyridamole). Randomisation was stratified by country and index event, and minimised with prognostic baseline factors, medication use, time to randomisation, stroke-related factors, and thrombolysis. The ordinal primary outcome was the combined incidence and severity of any recurrent stroke (ischaemic or haemorrhagic; assessed using the modified Rankin Scale) or TIA within 90 days, as assessed by central telephone follow-up with masking to treatment assignment, and analysed by intention to treat. This trial is registered with the ISRCTN registry, number ISRCTN47823388. Findings: 3096 participants (1556 in the intensive antiplatelet therapy group, 1540 in the guideline antiplatelet therapy group) were recruited from 106 hospitals in four countries between April 7, 2009, and March 18, 2016. The trial was stopped early on the recommendation of the data monitoring committee. The incidence and severity of recurrent stroke or TIA did not differ between intensive and guideline therapy (93 [6%] participants vs 105 [7%]; adjusted common odds ratio [cOR] 0·90, 95% CI 0·67–1·20, p=0·47). By contrast, intensive antiplatelet therapy was associated with more, and more severe, bleeding (adjusted cOR 2·54, 95% CI 2·05–3·16, p<0·0001). Interpretation: Among patients with recent cerebral ischaemia, intensive antiplatelet therapy did not reduce the incidence and severity of recurrent stroke or TIA, but did significantly increase the risk of major bleeding. Triple antiplatelet therapy should not be used in routine clinical practice