Creation of Central National Database in Nigeria: Challenges and Prospects

This paper focuses on the creation of central national database based on Entity Relationship (ER) data model in order to describe each person individually and uniquely.  Also, the model establishes the use of the unique code (National Security code) as the primary key to identify each entity, entity relationship within and among public services entities.  Presently, Nigeria is critically facing security challenges because people are not uniquely identified and tagged.  The situation has led to insecurity in Nigeria with different trends and dimensions from one geopolitical zone to the other.  For instance, this has led to various faceless activities such as Islamic sect called Boko Haram in the North, rampant armed robbery in the South-West, notorious robbery and kidnapping in the South-East and South-South.  Corruption and unemployment are all over.  To curb the menace, a central national residency database must be created to solving identity challenge, loose neighboring borders, sectional terrorist, corruption, Crime and criminalities, unemployment, poverty and leadership distrust.  The paper recommends how the government can achieve central coordination of national security and attitudinal change of the country men despite the prevailing security challenge. Key-words: Central National Database, Data, National Security code, Entity Relationship (ER), Utilities, Residency code, Enforcement, National security, Attitudinal change JEL Classification: C82, M15, O3

Trends in female sterilization in north central Nigeria

Background: Contraception is key to the reduction of maternal mortality. Tubal ligation is a good option for women seeking out a safe, effective, permanent and convenient form of contraceptive. However, due to variety of reasons, there is aversion to it especially in developing world. The objective of this study was to determine the trends, uptake, socio-demographic characteristics of acceptors, indications and complications of bilateral tubal ligation (BTL) in our environment.Methods: A retrospective study of BTL at UATH was conducted over a five year period, from 1 January 2015 to 31 December 2019. The records of women who had BTL were retrieved from the medical records department, family planning clinic, and the theatre. The data was analyzed using SPSS 21.Results: The mean age and parity were 36.0±4.0 and 5.0±2.0 respectively. The incidence of BTL was 1.3%. Majority of those that had BTL had at least secondary level of education 100 (83.4%) and 58 (48.3%) were grand multiparous. Majority of cases 87 (72.5%) were done during caesarean section/laparotomy. Postpartum BTL accounted for 15.0%, while interval BTL accounted for 12.5%. Completed family size was the commonest indication 48.3%. No client came back with regrets. There was one case of failed BTL.Conclusions: BTL is a safe and effective method of sterilization. There is an increasing trend in utilization of BTL however the rate is still low

Anaemia in HIV positive mothers on antiretroviral therapy for prevention of mother-to-child transmission HIV in a tertiary health institution in North Central Nigeria

Background: Anaemia in pregnancy and HIV infection are two common public health issues in sub-Saharan African with Nigeria bearing the greatest burden. The duo occurring together poses a higher risk of morbidity and mortality for both the foetus and the mother. We therefore conducted this study to determine the burden of anaemia and other haematological abnormalities among HIV positive pregnant mothers on antiretroviral therapy who attended antenatal clinical services in our health institution.Methods: A 10-year retrospective review from January 2010 to December 2019 of medical records of HIV positive mothers on highly anti-retroviral therapy in attendance for antenatal clinical services in our health institution was carried out for the above objectives. Information extracted were, age, HIV status, gestational age at delivery, type of antiretroviral drugs used, duration of use, haemoglobin level, platelet, and complete blood count at booking of the positive mothers.Results: Of a total of 330 HIV positive mothers seen during the review period, 82.7% were from rural communities, 88.8% were from middle socio-economic class, 80.0% were Christians, and 80.3% started their highly active antiretroviral therapy before their index pregnancy. Most, 51.5% and 42.7% were on zidovudine, lamivudine and nevirapine, and tenofovir with lamivudine and lopinavir boasted ritonavir combinations, while 94.2% were on 1st line antiretroviral medication. Their mean age, gestational age at delivery, and parity were 31.11±4.7 years, 38.57±3.1 weeks, and 2.0±1.6 respectively. The prevalence of anaemia, thrombocytopenia and leucopoenia were 36.1%, 4.8%, and 6.7% respectively while their mean CD4 cell count and viral loads at the point of booking were 543.63±283.7 cells/μl, and 2953.02±1619.9 copies/ml. The two maternal variables that showed significant relationship with haemoglobin concentration of <10 gm/dl was mother’s level of education x2=6.29, p=0.043, and her socio=economic class, x2=10.162, p=0.006.Conclusions: There is high burden of anaemia among HIV positive mothers on antiretroviral therapy in our environment. The prevalence of thrombocytopenia and leucopoenia was much lower. The burden of maternal anaemia was associated with maternal level of education and her socio-economic class

The nature of rainfall in the main drainage sub-basins of Uganda

A study of rainfall trends and temporal variations within seven sub- basins of Uganda spanning from 1940 to 2009 has been made. Rainfall climatologies are constructed from observational data, using 36 station records which reflect hydro climatic conditions. Long-term changes in rainfall characteristics were determined by non-parametric tests (Mann-Kendall and Sen’s T tests), coefficient of variation, precipitation concentration Index and drought severity index. Magnitude of change was estimated by applying Sen’s estimator of slope. Decadal variability of rainfall with marked seasonal cycles is evident. Temporal variability of drought patterns is detected. Variations in annual rainfall are low with no significant trends observed in the main drainage sub-basins. Significant trends occur in October, November, December and January. A noticeable decrease in the annual total rainfall was observed mostly in north-western and south-western sub-basins. Rainfall trend in the second normal of June-July-August (JJA) was decreasing in all the main drainage sub-basins.http://www.tandfonline.com/loi/thsj202015-06-30hb201

Prevalence and Prognostic Features of ECG Abnormalities in Acute Stroke: Findings From the SIREN Study Among Africans

Background Africa has a growing burden of stroke with associated high morbidity and a 3-year fatality rate of 84%. Cardiac disease contributes to stroke occurrence and outcomes, but the precise relationship of abnormalities as noted on a cheap and widely available test, the electrocardiogram (ECG), and acute stroke outcomes have not been previously characterized in Africans. Objectives The study assessed the prevalence and prognoses of various ECG abnormalities among African acute stroke patients encountered in a multisite, cross-national epidemiologic study. Methods We included 890 patients from Nigeria and Ghana with acute stroke who had 12-lead ECG recording within first 24 h of admission and stroke classified based on brain computed tomography scan or magnetic resonance imaging. Stroke severity at baseline was assessed using the Stroke Levity Scale (SLS), whereas 1-month outcome was assessed using the modified Rankin Scale (mRS). Results Patients\u27 mean age was 58.4 ± 13.4 years, 490 were men (55%) and 400 were women (45%), 65.5% had ischemic stroke, and 85.4% had at least 1 ECG abnormality. Women were significantly more likely to have atrial fibrillation, or left ventricular hypertrophy with or without strain pattern. Compared to ischemic stroke patients, hemorrhagic stroke patients were less likely to have atrial fibrillation (1.0% vs. 6.7%; p = 0.002), but more likely to have left ventricular hypertrophy (64.4% vs. 51.4%; p = 0.004). Odds of severe disability or death at 1 month were higher with severe stroke (AOR: 2.25; 95% confidence interval: 1.44 to 3.50), or atrial enlargement (AOR: 1.45; 95% confidence interval: 1.04 to 2.02). Conclusions About 4 in 5 acute stroke patients in this African cohort had evidence of a baseline ECG abnormality, but presence of any atrial enlargement was the only independent ECG predictor of death or disability

Subnational mapping of HIV incidence and mortality among individuals aged 15–49 years in sub-Saharan Africa, 2000–18 : a modelling study

Background: High-resolution estimates of HIV burden across space and time provide an important tool for tracking and monitoring the progress of prevention and control efforts and assist with improving the precision and efficiency of targeting efforts. We aimed to assess HIV incidence and HIV mortality for all second-level administrative units across sub-Saharan Africa. Methods: In this modelling study, we developed a framework that used the geographically specific HIV prevalence data collected in seroprevalence surveys and antenatal care clinics to train a model that estimates HIV incidence and mortality among individuals aged 15–49 years. We used a model-based geostatistical framework to estimate HIV prevalence at the second administrative level in 44 countries in sub-Saharan Africa for 2000–18 and sought data on the number of individuals on antiretroviral therapy (ART) by second-level administrative unit. We then modified the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) to use these HIV prevalence and treatment estimates to estimate HIV incidence and mortality by second-level administrative unit. Findings: The estimates suggest substantial variation in HIV incidence and mortality rates both between and within countries in sub-Saharan Africa, with 15 countries having a ten-times or greater difference in estimated HIV incidence between the second-level administrative units with the lowest and highest estimated incidence levels. Across all 44 countries in 2018, HIV incidence ranged from 2 ·8 (95% uncertainty interval 2·1–3·8) in Mauritania to 1585·9 (1369·4–1824·8) cases per 100 000 people in Lesotho and HIV mortality ranged from 0·8 (0·7–0·9) in Mauritania to 676· 5 (513· 6–888·0) deaths per 100 000 people in Lesotho. Variation in both incidence and mortality was substantially greater at the subnational level than at the national level and the highest estimated rates were accordingly higher. Among second-level administrative units, Guijá District, Gaza Province, Mozambique, had the highest estimated HIV incidence (4661·7 [2544·8–8120·3]) cases per 100000 people in 2018 and Inhassunge District, Zambezia Province, Mozambique, had the highest estimated HIV mortality rate (1163·0 [679·0–1866·8]) deaths per 100 000 people. Further, the rate of reduction in HIV incidence and mortality from 2000 to 2018, as well as the ratio of new infections to the number of people living with HIV was highly variable. Although most second-level administrative units had declines in the number of new cases (3316 [81· 1%] of 4087 units) and number of deaths (3325 [81·4%]), nearly all appeared well short of the targeted 75% reduction in new cases and deaths between 2010 and 2020. Interpretation: Our estimates suggest that most second-level administrative units in sub-Saharan Africa are falling short of the targeted 75% reduction in new cases and deaths by 2020, which is further compounded by substantial within-country variability. These estimates will help decision makers and programme implementers expand access to ART and better target health resources to higher burden subnational areas

Measuring universal health coverage based on an index of effective coverage of health services in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: Achieving universal health coverage (UHC) involves all people receiving the health services they need, of high quality, without experiencing financial hardship. Making progress towards UHC is a policy priority for both countries and global institutions, as highlighted by the agenda of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and WHO's Thirteenth General Programme of Work (GPW13). Measuring effective coverage at the health-system level is important for understanding whether health services are aligned with countries' health profiles and are of sufficient quality to produce health gains for populations of all ages. Methods: Based on the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, we assessed UHC effective coverage for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. Drawing from a measurement framework developed through WHO's GPW13 consultation, we mapped 23 effective coverage indicators to a matrix representing health service types (eg, promotion, prevention, and treatment) and five population-age groups spanning from reproductive and newborn to older adults (>= 65 years). Effective coverage indicators were based on intervention coverage or outcome-based measures such as mortality-to-incidence ratios to approximate access to quality care; outcome-based measures were transformed to values on a scale of 0-100 based on the 2.5th and 97.5th percentile of location-year values. We constructed the UHC effective coverage index by weighting each effective coverage indicator relative to its associated potential health gains, as measured by disability-adjusted life-years for each location-year and population-age group. For three tests of validity (content, known-groups, and convergent), UHC effective coverage index performance was generally better than that of other UHC service coverage indices from WHO (ie, the current metric for SDG indicator 3.8.1 on UHC service coverage), the World Bank, and GBD 2017. We quantified frontiers of UHC effective coverage performance on the basis of pooled health spending per capita, representing UHC effective coverage index levels achieved in 2019 relative to country-level government health spending, prepaid private expenditures, and development assistance for health. To assess current trajectories towards the GPW13 UHC billion target-1 billion more people benefiting from UHC by 2023-we estimated additional population equivalents with UHC effective coverage from 2018 to 2023. Findings: Globally, performance on the UHC effective coverage index improved from 45.8 (95% uncertainty interval 44.2-47.5) in 1990 to 60.3 (58.7-61.9) in 2019, yet country-level UHC effective coverage in 2019 still spanned from 95 or higher in Japan and Iceland to lower than 25 in Somalia and the Central African Republic. Since 2010, sub-Saharan Africa showed accelerated gains on the UHC effective coverage index (at an average increase of 2.6% [1.9-3.3] per year up to 2019); by contrast, most other GBD super-regions had slowed rates of progress in 2010-2019 relative to 1990-2010. Many countries showed lagging performance on effective coverage indicators for non-communicable diseases relative to those for communicable diseases and maternal and child health, despite non-communicable diseases accounting for a greater proportion of potential health gains in 2019, suggesting that many health systems are not keeping pace with the rising non-communicable disease burden and associated population health needs. In 2019, the UHC effective coverage index was associated with pooled health spending per capita (r=0.79), although countries across the development spectrum had much lower UHC effective coverage than is potentially achievable relative to their health spending. Under maximum efficiency of translating health spending into UHC effective coverage performance, countries would need to reach $1398 pooled health spending per capita (US$ adjusted for purchasing power parity) in order to achieve 80 on the UHC effective coverage index. From 2018 to 2023, an estimated 388.9 million (358.6-421.3) more population equivalents would have UHC effective coverage, falling well short of the GPW13 target of 1 billion more people benefiting from UHC during this time. Current projections point to an estimated 3.1 billion (3.0-3.2) population equivalents still lacking UHC effective coverage in 2023, with nearly a third (968.1 million [903.5-1040.3]) residing in south Asia. Interpretation: The present study demonstrates the utility of measuring effective coverage and its role in supporting improved health outcomes for all people-the ultimate goal of UHC and its achievement. Global ambitions to accelerate progress on UHC service coverage are increasingly unlikely unless concerted action on non-communicable diseases occurs and countries can better translate health spending into improved performance. Focusing on effective coverage and accounting for the world's evolving health needs lays the groundwork for better understanding how close-or how far-all populations are in benefiting from UHC

Anemia prevalence in women of reproductive age in low- and middle-income countries between 2000 and 2018

Anemia is a globally widespread condition in women and is associated with reduced economic productivity and increased mortality worldwide. Here we map annual 2000–2018 geospatial estimates of anemia prevalence in women of reproductive age (15–49 years) across 82 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), stratify anemia by severity and aggregate results to policy-relevant administrative and national levels. Additionally, we provide subnational disparity analyses to provide a comprehensive overview of anemia prevalence inequalities within these countries and predict progress toward the World Health Organization’s Global Nutrition Target (WHO GNT) to reduce anemia by half by 2030. Our results demonstrate widespread moderate improvements in overall anemia prevalence but identify only three LMICs with a high probability of achieving the WHO GNT by 2030 at a national scale, and no LMIC is expected to achieve the target in all their subnational administrative units. Our maps show where large within-country disparities occur, as well as areas likely to fall short of the WHO GNT, offering precision public health tools so that adequate resource allocation and subsequent interventions can be targeted to the most vulnerable populations

Estimating global injuries morbidity and mortality : methods and data used in the Global Burden of Disease 2017 study

Background: While there is a long history of measuring death and disability from injuries, modern research methods must account for the wide spectrum of disability that can occur in an injury, and must provide estimates with sufficient demographic, geographical and temporal detail to be useful for policy makers. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 study used methods to provide highly detailed estimates of global injury burden that meet these criteria. Methods: In this study, we report and discuss the methods used in GBD 2017 for injury morbidity and mortality burden estimation. In summary, these methods included estimating cause-specific mortality for every cause of injury, and then estimating incidence for every cause of injury. Non-fatal disability for each cause is then calculated based on the probabilities of suffering from different types of bodily injury experienced. Results: GBD 2017 produced morbidity and mortality estimates for 38 causes of injury. Estimates were produced in terms of incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability, cause-specific mortality, years of life lost and disability-adjusted life-years for a 28-year period for 22 age groups, 195 countries and both sexes. Conclusions: GBD 2017 demonstrated a complex and sophisticated series of analytical steps using the largest known database of morbidity and mortality data on injuries. GBD 2017 results should be used to help inform injury prevention policy making and resource allocation. We also identify important avenues for improving injury burden estimation in the future

Mapping 123 million neonatal, infant and child deaths between 2000 and 2017

Since 2000, many countries have achieved considerable success in improving child survival, but localized progress remains unclear. To inform efforts towards United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 3.2—to end preventable child deaths by 2030—we need consistently estimated data at the subnational level regarding child mortality rates and trends. Here we quantified, for the period 2000–2017, the subnational variation in mortality rates and number of deaths of neonates, infants and children under 5 years of age within 99 low- and middle-income countries using a geostatistical survival model. We estimated that 32% of children under 5 in these countries lived in districts that had attained rates of 25 or fewer child deaths per 1,000 live births by 2017, and that 58% of child deaths between 2000 and 2017 in these countries could have been averted in the absence of geographical inequality. This study enables the identification of high-mortality clusters, patterns of progress and geographical inequalities to inform appropriate investments and implementations that will help to improve the health of all populations