acebayes: An R Package for Bayesian Optimal Design of Experiments via Approximate Coordinate Exchange

We describe the R package acebayes and demonstrate its use to find Bayesian optimal experimental designs. A decision-theoretic approach is adopted, with the optimal design maximizing an expected utility. Finding Bayesian optimal designs for realistic problems is challenging, as the expected utility is typically intractable and the design space may be high-dimensional. The package implements the approximate coordinate exchange algorithm to optimize (an approximation to) the expected utility via a sequence of conditional one-dimensional optimization steps. At each step, a Gaussian process regression model is used to approximate, and subsequently optimize, the expected utility as the function of a single design coordinate (the value taken by one controllable variable for one run of the experiment). In addition to functions for bespoke design problems with user-defined utility functions, acebayes provides functions tailored to finding designs for common generalized linear and nonlinear models. The package provides a step-change in the complexity of problems that can be addressed, enabling designs to be found for much larger numbers of variables and runs than previously possible. We provide tutorials on the application of the methodology for four illustrative examples of varying complexity where designs are found for the goals of parameter estimation, model selection and prediction. These examples demonstrate previously unseen functionality of acebayes

Optimal designs for experiments for scalar-on-function linear models

The aim of this work is to extend the usual optimal experimental design paradigm to experiments where the settings of one or more factors are functions. For these new experiments, a design consists of combinations of functions for each run of the experiment along with settings for non-functional variables. After briefly introducing the class of functional variables, basis function systems are described. Basis function expansion is applied to a functional linear model consisting of both functional and scalar factors, reducing the problem to an optimisation problem of a single design matrix

Crowdsourcing Linked Data on listening experiences through reuse and enhancement of library data

Research has approached the practice of musical reception in a multitude of ways, such as the analysis of professional critique, sales figures and psychological processes activated by the act of listening. Studies in the Humanities, on the other hand, have been hindered by the lack of structured evidence of actual experiences of listening as reported by the listeners themselves, a concern that was voiced since the early Web era. It was however assumed that such evidence existed, albeit in pure textual form, but could not be leveraged until it was digitised and aggregated. The Listening Experience Database (LED) responds to this research need by providing a centralised hub for evidence of listening in the literature. Not only does LED support search and reuse across nearly 10,000 records, but it also provides machine-readable structured data of the knowledge around the contexts of listening. To take advantage of the mass of formal knowledge that already exists on the Web concerning these contexts, the entire framework adopts Linked Data principles and technologies. This also allows LED to directly reuse open data from the British Library for the source documentation that is already published. Reused data are re-published as open data with enhancements obtained by expanding over the model of the original data, such as the partitioning of published books and collections into individual stand-alone documents. The database was populated through crowdsourcing and seamlessly incorporates data reuse from the very early data entry phases. As the sources of the evidence often contain vague, fragmentary of uncertain information, facilities were put in place to generate structured data out of such fuzziness. Alongside elaborating on these functionalities, this article provides insights into the most recent features of the latest instalment of the dataset and portal, such as the interlinking with the MusicBrainz database, the relaxation of geographical input constraints through text mining, and the plotting of key locations in an interactive geographical browser

Cyprus' image—a sun and sea destination—as a detrimental factor to seasonal fluctuations. Exploration into motivational factors for holidaying in Cyprus

Cyprus is established as a summer destination. To aid the destination in developing its winter season as well, this research uses a qualitative inductive approach to explore the tourists’ current image of the island and their motivations of visiting it. The research indicates that the current image, which essentially portrays Cyprus as a sun-and-sea destination is thought to dissuade tourists from perceiving the island as a year-round destination. Nonetheless, increasing the pull factors of the destination through the development of unique special interest products can help in extending the tourism season as well as broaden its narrow image

Cause-specific mortality of children younger than 5 years in communities receiving biannual mass azithromycin treatment in Niger: verbal autopsy results from a cluster-randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: The Macrolides Oraux pour Réduire les Décès avec un Oeil sur la Résistance (MORDOR) trial found that biannual mass distribution of azithromycin to children younger than 5 years in Niger reduced the primary outcome of all-cause mortality by 18%. We aimed to determine the causes of mortality among deceased children using verbal autopsy. METHODS: In this 2-year cluster-randomised controlled trial, 594 community clusters in Niger were randomly allocated (1:1 ratio) to receive biannual mass distributions of either oral azithromycin (approximately 20 mg per kg of bodyweight) or placebo targeted to children aged 1-59 months. Participants, study investigators, and field workers were masked to treatment allocation. Between Nov 23, 2014, and July 31, 2017, 3615 child deaths were recorded by use of biannual house-to-house censuses, and verbal autopsies were done between May 26, 2015, and May 17, 2018, to identify cause of death. Cause-specific mortality, as assessed by verbal autopsy, was a prespecified secondary outcome. This trial is completed and is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02047981. FINDINGS: Between Nov 23, 2014, and July 31, 2017, 303 communities (n=40 375 children at baseline) in Niger received mass azithromycin and 291 communities (n=35 747 children at baseline) received placebo. Treatment coverage was 90·3% (SD 10·6) in the azithromycin group and 90·4% (10·1) in the placebo group. No communities were lost to follow-up. In total, 1727 child deaths in the azithromycin group and 1888 child deaths in the placebo group were reported from the population censuses. Of these, the cause of death for 1566 (90·7%) children in the azithromycin group and 1735 (91·9%) children in the placebo group were ascertained by verbal autopsy interviews. In the azithromycin group, 437 (27·9%) deaths were due to malaria, 252 (16·1%) deaths were due to pneumonia, and 234 (14·9%) deaths were due to diarrhoea. In the placebo group, 493 (28·4%) deaths were due to malaria, 275 (15·9%) deaths were due to pneumonia, and 251 (14·5%) deaths were due to diarrhoea. Relative to communities that received placebo, child mortality in communities that received azithromycin was lower for malaria (incidence rate ratio 0·78, 95% CI 0·66-0·92; p=0·0029), dysentery (0·65, 0·44-0·94; p=0·025), meningitis (0·67, 0·46-0·97; p=0·036), and pneumonia (0·83, 0·68-1·00; p=0·051). The distribution of causes of death did not differ significantly between the two study groups (p=0·98). INTERPRETATION: Mass azithromycin distribution resulted in approximately a third fewer deaths in children aged 1-59 months due to meningitis and dysentery, and a fifth fewer deaths due to malaria and pneumonia. The lack of difference in the distribution of causes of death between the azithromycin and placebo groups could be attributable to the broad spectrum of azithromycin activity and the study setting, in which most childhood deaths were due to infections. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Development of a multiplexed bead-based immunoassay for the simultaneous detection of antibodies to 17 pneumococcal proteins

Presently, several pneumococcal proteins are being evaluated as potential vaccine candidates. Here, we gather novel insights in the immunogenicity of PLY, PsaA, PspA, PspC, NanA, Hyl, PpmA, SlrA, Eno, IgA1-protease, PdBD, BVH-3, SP1003, SP1633, SP1651, SP0189 and SP0376. We developed a multiplex bead-based immunoassay (xMAP® Technology, Luminex Corporation) to simultaneously quantify antibodies against these 17 pneumococcal proteins in serum. The median fluorescence intensity (MFI) values obtained for human pooled serum with the multiplex assay were between 82% and 111% (median 94%) of those obtained with the singleplex assays. For IgG, the coefficient of variation (CV) in serum ranged from 2% to 9%, for IgA, the CV ranged from 3% to 14% and for IgM, the CV ranged from 11% to 15%. Using this immunoassay, we showed that anti-pneumococcal antibody levels exhibited extensive inter-individual variability in young children suffering from invasive pneumococcal disease. All proteins, including the proteins with, as yet, unknown function, were immunogenic. In conclusion, the multiplex Streptococcus pneumoniae immunoassay based on proteins is reproducible. This assay can be used to monitor anti-S. pneumoniae antibody responses in a material- and time-saving manner

Updated European Consensus Statement on diagnosis and treatment of adult ADHD

Background Attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) is among the most common psychiatric disorders of childhood that often persists into adulthood and old age. Yet ADHD is currently underdiagnosed and undertreated in many European countries, leading to chronicity of symptoms and impairment, due to lack of, or ineffective treatment, and higher costs of illness. Methods The European Network Adult ADHD and the Section for Neurodevelopmental Disorders Across the Lifespan (NDAL) of the European Psychiatric Association (EPA), aim to increase awareness and knowledge of adult ADHD in and outside Europe. This Updated European Consensus Statement aims to support clinicians with research evidence and clinical experience from 63 experts of European and other countries in which ADHD in adults is recognized and treated. Results Besides reviewing the latest research on prevalence, persistence, genetics and neurobiology of ADHD, three major questions are addressed: (1) What is the clinical picture of ADHD in adults? (2) How should ADHD be properly diagnosed in adults? (3) How should adult ADHDbe effectively treated? Conclusions ADHD often presents as a lifelong impairing condition. The stigma surrounding ADHD, mainly due to lack of knowledge, increases the suffering of patients. Education on the lifespan perspective, diagnostic assessment, and treatment of ADHD must increase for students of general and mental health, and for psychiatry professionals. Instruments for screening and diagnosis of ADHD in adults are available, as are effective evidence-based treatments for ADHD and its negative outcomes. More research is needed on gender differences, and in older adults with ADHD. (c) 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Masson SAS.Peer reviewe