A Two-Population Insurgency in Colombia: Quasi-Predator-Prey Models - A Trend Towards Simplicity

A sequence of analytic mathematical models has been developed in the context of the low-level insurgency in Colombia, from 1993 to the present. They are based on generalizations of the two-population predator-prey model commonly applied in ecological modeling, and interestingly, the less sophisticated models yield more insight into the problem than the more complicated ones, but the formalism is available to adapt the model upwards in the event that more data becomes available, or as the situation increases in complexity. Specifically, so-called forcing terms were included initially in the coupled differential equations to represent the effects of government policies towards both the narco-terrorist or insurgent (I) and susceptible (S) populations. These terms are in general functions of time, since it is to be expected that changes in policy will occur as the outcomes of previously implemented policies are recognized. Both continuous and discontinuous forcing functions can be appropriate for each population. Although nonhomogeneous systems are discussed for both populations, the majority of the analysis focused on a system with forcing terms for the terrorist population only. Two categories of models emerged: 1-in which the time-dependent forcing terms were independent of the two populations, and 2-in which these terms were directly proportional to the respective populations. Model 2 in fact, can be considered as a generalization of the unforced (or homogeneous) version of model 1, and as such is implemented to describe the data obtained for the insurgent population from 1993-2003. This provides some restrictions on the unknown parameters in the model. Because of new government policy towards the insurgent population as a result of the election of President Uribe in 2002, a slight but significant modification of this model is used to describe the I-population from 2003 to the present time, again resulting in useful relationships between the various model parameters. The data suggest that a further simplification in this model is appropriate beyond 2003, and an analytic solution was found for both populations. A further simplification results from examining the related decoupled system of equations, yielding a straightforward predictive model for the behavior of the S-population in particular. Finally, in the Appendix, detailed analysis of model 2 yields a general analytic solution of the system for a wide range of sub-models, expressible in terms of confluent hypergeometric functions. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved

Structural pathways for ultrafast melting of optically excited thin polycrystalline Palladium films

Due to its extremely short timescale, the non-equilibrium melting of metals is exceptionally difficult to probe experimentally. The knowledge of melting mechanisms is thus based mainly on the results of theoretical predictions. This work reports on the investigation of ultrafast melting of thin polycrystalline Pd films studied by optical laser pump - X-ray free-electron laser probe experiments and molecular-dynamics simulations. By acquiring X-ray diffraction snapshots with sub-picosecond resolution, we capture the sample's atomic structure during its transition from the crystalline to the liquid state. Bridging the timescales of experiments and simulations allows us to formulate a realistic microscopic picture of melting. We demonstrate that the existing models of strongly non-equilibrium melting, developed for systems with relatively weak electron-phonon coupling, remain valid even for ultrafast heating rates achieved in femtosecond laser-excited Pd. Furthermore, we highlight the role of pre-existing and transiently generated crystal defects in the transition to the liquid state.Comment: main manuscript 33 pages, 9 figures; supplemental material 19 pages, 13 figures - all in one fil

Ultrafast terahertz-field-driven ionic response in ferroelectric BaTiO3

The dynamical processes associated with electric field manipulation of the polarization in a ferroelectric remain largely unknown but fundamentally determine the speed and functionality of ferroelectric materials and devices. Here we apply subpicosecond duration, single-cycle terahertz pulses as an ultrafast electric field bias to prototypical BaTiO[subscript 3] ferroelectric thin films with the atomic-scale response probed by femtosecond x-ray-scattering techniques. We show that electric fields applied perpendicular to the ferroelectric polarization drive large-amplitude displacements of the titanium atoms along the ferroelectric polarization axis, comparable to that of the built-in displacements associated with the intrinsic polarization and incoherent across unit cells. This effect is associated with a dynamic rotation of the ferroelectric polarization switching on and then off on picosecond time scales. These transient polarization modulations are followed by long-lived vibrational heating effects driven by resonant excitation of the ferroelectric soft mode, as reflected in changes in the c-axis tetragonality. The ultrafast structural characterization described here enables a direct comparison with first-principles-based molecular-dynamics simulations, with good agreement obtained

Geographic and seasonal patterns and limits on the adaptive response to temperature of European Mytilus spp. and Macoma balthica populations

Seasonal variations in seawater temperature require extensive metabolic acclimatization in cold-blooded organisms inhabiting the coastal waters of Europe. Given the energetic costs of acclimatization, differences in adaptive capacity to climatic conditions are to be expected among distinct populations of species that are distributed over a wide geographic range. We studied seasonal variations in the metabolic adjustments of two very common bivalve taxa at European scale. To this end we sampled 16 populations of Mytilus spp. and 10 Macoma balthica populations distributed from 39° to 69°N. The results from this large-scale comprehensive comparison demonstrated seasonal cycles in metabolic rates which were maximized during winter and springtime, and often reduced in the summer and autumn. Studying the sensitivity of metabolic rates to thermal variations, we found that a broad range of Q10 values occurred under relatively cold conditions. As habitat temperatures increased the range of Q10 narrowed, reaching a bottleneck in southern marginal populations during summer. For Mytilus spp., genetic-group-specific clines and limits on Q10 values were observed at temperatures corresponding to the maximum climatic conditions these geographic populations presently experience. Such specific limitations indicate differential thermal adaptation among these divergent groups. They may explain currently observed migrations in mussel distributions and invasions. Our results provide a practical framework for the thermal ecophysiology of bivalves, the assessment of environmental changes due to climate change and its impact on (and consequences for) aquaculture

Dissecting the Shared Genetic Architecture of Suicide Attempt, Psychiatric Disorders, and Known Risk Factors

Background Suicide is a leading cause of death worldwide, and nonfatal suicide attempts, which occur far more frequently, are a major source of disability and social and economic burden. Both have substantial genetic etiology, which is partially shared and partially distinct from that of related psychiatric disorders. Methods We conducted a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of 29,782 suicide attempt (SA) cases and 519,961 controls in the International Suicide Genetics Consortium (ISGC). The GWAS of SA was conditioned on psychiatric disorders using GWAS summary statistics via multitrait-based conditional and joint analysis, to remove genetic effects on SA mediated by psychiatric disorders. We investigated the shared and divergent genetic architectures of SA, psychiatric disorders, and other known risk factors. Results Two loci reached genome-wide significance for SA: the major histocompatibility complex and an intergenic locus on chromosome 7, the latter of which remained associated with SA after conditioning on psychiatric disorders and replicated in an independent cohort from the Million Veteran Program. This locus has been implicated in risk-taking behavior, smoking, and insomnia. SA showed strong genetic correlation with psychiatric disorders, particularly major depression, and also with smoking, pain, risk-taking behavior, sleep disturbances, lower educational attainment, reproductive traits, lower socioeconomic status, and poorer general health. After conditioning on psychiatric disorders, the genetic correlations between SA and psychiatric disorders decreased, whereas those with nonpsychiatric traits remained largely unchanged. Conclusions Our results identify a risk locus that contributes more strongly to SA than other phenotypes and suggest a shared underlying biology between SA and known risk factors that is not mediated by psychiatric disorders.Peer reviewe