Acoustic properties of the South Pole ice for astrophysical neutrino detection

Over the last few decades, several dedicated neutrino telescopes have been built to detect high energy astrophysical neutrinos which are predicted from a variety of astrophysical objects. Since the neutrino flux is predicted to be very low (about 1 per km² per year), the IceCube detector could detect only about 1 event per year. A detector with an effective volume of the order of 100 km³ is needed to detect a few events per year. Acoustic and radio methods can, in principle, be used to instrument a large hybrid neutrino telescope with a good sensitivity at a reasonable cost. The South Pole Acoustic Test Setup (SPATS) is the only acoustic activity to study the acoustic detection in ice so far. The acoustic attenuation length of the Antarctic ice is a fundamental quantity to design a future acoustic neutrino detector at the South Pole. The longitudinal waves in the South Pole ice are expected to be attenuated via absorption and scattering, where the attenuation due to scattering depends on the frequency (~f^4). In this work, recent measurements from SPATS was used to investigate the frequency dependence of sound in the South Pole ice. This will allow us to distinguish between the two different attenuation mechanisms (absorption or scattering.) Further analysis related to the sound speed frequency dependence and the ice fabric of the South Pole was done. The in-situ measured attenuation length was used to perform a detailed simulation of neutrino-induced cascades and the resulting acoustic signal in ice. Further simulations were done to investigate the feasibility of a large neutrino telescope in ice

Application of UPFC on stabilizing torsional oscillations and improving transient stability

This paper investigates the application of Unified Power Flow Controller (UPFC) to stabilize multi-mode torsional oscillations of sub-synchronous resonance (SSR), and to improve the transient stability during a three phase short circuit fault that may result in oscillatory torques on the generator rotor shaft causing serious damages to the system and may call for the disconnection of a wind farm to avoid any possible damages. Simulation is carried out using MATLAB/Simulink software. Results show that the proposed UPFC controller is very effective in damping all SSR modes of the system under study and in minimizing the potential for the wind farm disconnection during the studied faults. The proposed controller is simple and easy to be implemented

USING MOBILE AUGMENTED REALITY TECHNOLOGIES IN ARCHITECTURAL EDUCATION

Effective applied research is based on close collaboration between research and industry. The teaching and learning methods used for decades in Architectural learning process should be reviewed taking into account habits of learning and the existing challenges provided by contemporary information technologies for a new generation of students. This paper introduces a pilot study based on using Augmented Reality (AR) as a new tool in architectural learning process. AR is an emerging technology which enables participants to interact with digital information embedded within the physical environment. Egyptian educational architectural institutions today are largely unaware of new concepts such as Augmented Reality opportunities for architectural practice, and the prototypes that are being developed by researchers worldwide. The paper goal is to present how it is very helpful to use such new advanced technology in architectural learning process. Testing its possibilities for graphical and spatial capabilities and recognition improvements for the first year architectural students in the Building Construction course, at the Department of Architecture, Menoufia University, Egypt. The case study was applied at the first semester of the academic year of 2015-2016

The impact of smoking on inflammatory biomarkers in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

AbstractBackgroundChronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a chronic progressive inflammatory disease characterized by airflow limitation that is not fully reversible (Nillawar et al., 2012). The pathophysiology of COPD is not completely understood. Cigarette smoking is a major risk factor for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Elevated CRP has been increasingly used as a surrogate marker of systemic inflammation in diverse conditions. TNF-α, a powerful pro-inflammatory cytokine primarily produced by activated macrophages, is thought to play a critical role in the pathogenesis of COPD (Higashimoto et al., 2008; Churg et al., 2002).The aim of the workTo evaluate the impact of smoking on inflammatory biomarkers and relations between these biomarkers and the decline of lung function in COPD patients.MethodsThis case–control observational prospective study was conducted on fifty-eight clinically stable COPD patients (26 non-smokers and 32 current smokers; at different stages ranged from mild to very severe), their mean age 53.1±14.25 and 53.9±5.95years respectively), recruited from Chest Department, Assiut University Hospitals. All patients met the Global Initiative for Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) (Battaglia et al., 2007). All participants were subjected to thorough history taking, full clinical examination, anthropometric measurements with spirometry and chest X-ray. Peripheral hemogram, liver function tests, kidney function tests, high sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs CRP) and serum level of TNF-α were measured for both patients and controls.ResultsThe concentrations of circulating hs-CRP and TNF-α, were highly significantly elevated in patients with COPD in comparison to the control group (3.74±0.2 vs. 1.30±0.14 for hs-CRP; 33.88±5.97 vs. 8.79±0. 57 for TNF-α with p<0.0001 for each) and the levels of measured TNF-α were significantly increased with the increased degree and severity of COPD and increased severity of smoking status. Regarding the smoking status of COPD patients, there was a highly significant difference for the measured TNF-α (53. 74±9.52 versus 12.73±1.20 with p<0.0001) with no significant difference for the measured hs-CRP (3.87±0.29 versus 3.58±0.27 with p>0.05). Interestingly, there were significant negative correlations between the levels of TNF-α and hs-CRP, and FEV1 in stages II, III, and IV of COPD.ConclusionsThe circulating levels of the inflammatory markers hs-CRP and TNF-alpha are significantly elevated in patients with stable COPD and these biomarkers could be used as predictor factors for severity of inflammation in COPD patients. Longitudinal studies evaluating the effects of smoking cessation on bronchial and systemic inflammation are needed to allow better understanding of these relationships and their consequences

Synthesis of some new of thieno[2,3-b]pyridines, pyrazolo[1,5-a]pyrimidine, [1,2,4]triazolo[1,5-a]pyrimidine, pyrazolo[5,1-c]triazine and pyrimido[1,2-a]benzimidazole derivatives containing pyridine moiety

pyrazolo[1,5-a]pyrimidine, [1,2,4]triazolo[1,5-a]pyrimidine and pyrimido[1,2-a] benzimidazole derivatives were synthesized by reaction of sodium salt of 3-hydroxy-(1-pyridin-2-yl)prop-2-en-1-one or sodium salt of 3-hydroxy-1-(pyridin-3-yl)prop-2-en-1-one with different heterocyclic amines in piperidenium acetate. Also, 3-amino-6-(2-pyridyl)thieno[2,3-b]pyridine derivatives were synthesized via reaction of pyridine-2-thione with various halogenated compounds. The structures of the newly synthesized compounds were confirmed by elemental analysis, spectral data, X-ray and alternative synthetic routes whenever possible

Respiratory syncytial virus infection among children younger than 2 years admitted to a paediatric intensive care unit with extended severe acute respiratory infection in ten Gavi-eligible countries: the RSV GOLD—ICU Network study

Background Patient-level data on life-threatening respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection in children in low-income and lower-middle-income countries (LMICs) are scarce, and this scarcity might limit demand for RSV interventions in LMICs who rely on support from Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance. We aimed to describe the characteristics of RSV-positive children younger than 2 years who were admitted to paediatric intensive care units (PICUs) with extended severe acute respiratory infection (eSARI) in Gavi-eligible countries. Methods The RSV GOLD—ICU Network study is a 2-year prospective, multicountry, observational study of children younger than 2 years admitted to a PICU with eSARI. The study was conducted at 12 referral hospitals in Bolivia, Cameroon, The Gambia, Ghana, Haiti, Mozambique, Nepal, Nigeria, Sudan, and Tanzania. For comparison with a high-income country, patients were also included from two referral hospitals in the Netherlands. Children were eligible for inclusion if they were aged between 4 days and 2 years, admitted to a PICU, and met the WHO eSARI definition. RSV infection was confirmed within 72 h of PICU admission via a molecular point-of-care test at LMIC study sites and via a PCR test at the Dutch study sites. Clinical data were extracted from admission charts of patients; underlying conditions that were identified at admission were classified as comorbidities. Socioeconomic and demographic data were collected via a written, structured, parental questionnaire. Findings Between April 28, 2021, and Sept 30, 2023, we included 2118 children who were admitted to a PICU with eSARI in the ten participating countries. 614 (29·0%; range 23·0–38·2) of 2118 children tested positive for RSV and 608 were included in descriptive analyses as six medical files were lost at one study site and data could not be retrieved. Among all 608 children infected with RSV, 379 (62%) were male and 229 (38%) were female. Median age at testing was 3·0 months (IQR 1·3–7·7). 30 (5%) of 608 children died from RSV infection. RSV fatality occurred at seven of ten participating LMIC study sites and was highest in Tanzania (seven [27%] of 26 children). Median age at testing of children who died with RSV infection was 1·8 months (IQR 1·1–4·2).Interpretation To our knowledge, this is the first prospective, multicountry study reporting data from children admitted to a PICU with life-threatening RSV infection in Gavi-eligible countries. As there is no access to intensive care for most children in LMICs, RSV prevention is urgently needed

Global prevalence and genotype distribution of hepatitis C virus infection in 2015 : A modelling study

Publisher Copyright: © 2017 Elsevier LtdBackground The 69th World Health Assembly approved the Global Health Sector Strategy to eliminate hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection by 2030, which can become a reality with the recent launch of direct acting antiviral therapies. Reliable disease burden estimates are required for national strategies. This analysis estimates the global prevalence of viraemic HCV at the end of 2015, an update of—and expansion on—the 2014 analysis, which reported 80 million (95% CI 64–103) viraemic infections in 2013. Methods We developed country-level disease burden models following a systematic review of HCV prevalence (number of studies, n=6754) and genotype (n=11 342) studies published after 2013. A Delphi process was used to gain country expert consensus and validate inputs. Published estimates alone were used for countries where expert panel meetings could not be scheduled. Global prevalence was estimated using regional averages for countries without data. Findings Models were built for 100 countries, 59 of which were approved by country experts, with the remaining 41 estimated using published data alone. The remaining countries had insufficient data to create a model. The global prevalence of viraemic HCV is estimated to be 1·0% (95% uncertainty interval 0·8–1·1) in 2015, corresponding to 71·1 million (62·5–79·4) viraemic infections. Genotypes 1 and 3 were the most common cause of infections (44% and 25%, respectively). Interpretation The global estimate of viraemic infections is lower than previous estimates, largely due to more recent (lower) prevalence estimates in Africa. Additionally, increased mortality due to liver-related causes and an ageing population may have contributed to a reduction in infections. Funding John C Martin Foundation.publishersversionPeer reviewe

Burden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories, 2022–2050: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Future trends in disease burden and drivers of health are of great interest to policy makers and the public at large. This information can be used for policy and long-term health investment, planning, and prioritisation. We have expanded and improved upon previous forecasts produced as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) and provide a reference forecast (the most likely future), and alternative scenarios assessing disease burden trajectories if selected sets of risk factors were eliminated from current levels by 2050. Methods: Using forecasts of major drivers of health such as the Socio-demographic Index (SDI; a composite measure of lag-distributed income per capita, mean years of education, and total fertility under 25 years of age) and the full set of risk factor exposures captured by GBD, we provide cause-specific forecasts of mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by age and sex from 2022 to 2050 for 204 countries and territories, 21 GBD regions, seven super-regions, and the world. All analyses were done at the cause-specific level so that only risk factors deemed causal by the GBD comparative risk assessment influenced future trajectories of mortality for each disease. Cause-specific mortality was modelled using mixed-effects models with SDI and time as the main covariates, and the combined impact of causal risk factors as an offset in the model. At the all-cause mortality level, we captured unexplained variation by modelling residuals with an autoregressive integrated moving average model with drift attenuation. These all-cause forecasts constrained the cause-specific forecasts at successively deeper levels of the GBD cause hierarchy using cascading mortality models, thus ensuring a robust estimate of cause-specific mortality. For non-fatal measures (eg, low back pain), incidence and prevalence were forecasted from mixed-effects models with SDI as the main covariate, and YLDs were computed from the resulting prevalence forecasts and average disability weights from GBD. Alternative future scenarios were constructed by replacing appropriate reference trajectories for risk factors with hypothetical trajectories of gradual elimination of risk factor exposure from current levels to 2050. The scenarios were constructed from various sets of risk factors: environmental risks (Safer Environment scenario), risks associated with communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases (CMNNs; Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination scenario), risks associated with major non-communicable diseases (NCDs; Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario), and the combined effects of these three scenarios. Using the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways climate scenarios SSP2-4.5 as reference and SSP1-1.9 as an optimistic alternative in the Safer Environment scenario, we accounted for climate change impact on health by using the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change temperature forecasts and published trajectories of ambient air pollution for the same two scenarios. Life expectancy and healthy life expectancy were computed using standard methods. The forecasting framework includes computing the age-sex-specific future population for each location and separately for each scenario. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for each individual future estimate were derived from the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of distributions generated from propagating 500 draws through the multistage computational pipeline. Findings: In the reference scenario forecast, global and super-regional life expectancy increased from 2022 to 2050, but improvement was at a slower pace than in the three decades preceding the COVID-19 pandemic (beginning in 2020). Gains in future life expectancy were forecasted to be greatest in super-regions with comparatively low life expectancies (such as sub-Saharan Africa) compared with super-regions with higher life expectancies (such as the high-income super-region), leading to a trend towards convergence in life expectancy across locations between now and 2050. At the super-region level, forecasted healthy life expectancy patterns were similar to those of life expectancies. Forecasts for the reference scenario found that health will improve in the coming decades, with all-cause age-standardised DALY rates decreasing in every GBD super-region. The total DALY burden measured in counts, however, will increase in every super-region, largely a function of population ageing and growth. We also forecasted that both DALY counts and age-standardised DALY rates will continue to shift from CMNNs to NCDs, with the most pronounced shifts occurring in sub-Saharan Africa (60·1% [95% UI 56·8–63·1] of DALYs were from CMNNs in 2022 compared with 35·8% [31·0–45·0] in 2050) and south Asia (31·7% [29·2–34·1] to 15·5% [13·7–17·5]). This shift is reflected in the leading global causes of DALYs, with the top four causes in 2050 being ischaemic heart disease, stroke, diabetes, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, compared with 2022, with ischaemic heart disease, neonatal disorders, stroke, and lower respiratory infections at the top. The global proportion of DALYs due to YLDs likewise increased from 33·8% (27·4–40·3) to 41·1% (33·9–48·1) from 2022 to 2050, demonstrating an important shift in overall disease burden towards morbidity and away from premature death. The largest shift of this kind was forecasted for sub-Saharan Africa, from 20·1% (15·6–25·3) of DALYs due to YLDs in 2022 to 35·6% (26·5–43·0) in 2050. In the assessment of alternative future scenarios, the combined effects of the scenarios (Safer Environment, Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination, and Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenarios) demonstrated an important decrease in the global burden of DALYs in 2050 of 15·4% (13·5–17·5) compared with the reference scenario, with decreases across super-regions ranging from 10·4% (9·7–11·3) in the high-income super-region to 23·9% (20·7–27·3) in north Africa and the Middle East. The Safer Environment scenario had its largest decrease in sub-Saharan Africa (5·2% [3·5–6·8]), the Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario in north Africa and the Middle East (23·2% [20·2–26·5]), and the Improved Nutrition and Vaccination scenario in sub-Saharan Africa (2·0% [–0·6 to 3·6]). Interpretation: Globally, life expectancy and age-standardised disease burden were forecasted to improve between 2022 and 2050, with the majority of the burden continuing to shift from CMNNs to NCDs. That said, continued progress on reducing the CMNN disease burden will be dependent on maintaining investment in and policy emphasis on CMNN disease prevention and treatment. Mostly due to growth and ageing of populations, the number of deaths and DALYs due to all causes combined will generally increase. By constructing alternative future scenarios wherein certain risk exposures are eliminated by 2050, we have shown that opportunities exist to substantially improve health outcomes in the future through concerted efforts to prevent exposure to well established risk factors and to expand access to key health interventions

Global, regional, and national burden of disorders affecting the nervous system, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND: Disorders affecting the nervous system are diverse and include neurodevelopmental disorders, late-life neurodegeneration, and newly emergent conditions, such as cognitive impairment following COVID-19. Previous publications from the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor Study estimated the burden of 15 neurological conditions in 2015 and 2016, but these analyses did not include neurodevelopmental disorders, as defined by the International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-11, or a subset of cases of congenital, neonatal, and infectious conditions that cause neurological damage. Here, we estimate nervous system health loss caused by 37 unique conditions and their associated risk factors globally, regionally, and nationally from 1990 to 2021. METHODS: We estimated mortality, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs), by age and sex in 204 countries and territories, from 1990 to 2021. We included morbidity and deaths due to neurological conditions, for which health loss is directly due to damage to the CNS or peripheral nervous system. We also isolated neurological health loss from conditions for which nervous system morbidity is a consequence, but not the primary feature, including a subset of congenital conditions (ie, chromosomal anomalies and congenital birth defects), neonatal conditions (ie, jaundice, preterm birth, and sepsis), infectious diseases (ie, COVID-19, cystic echinococcosis, malaria, syphilis, and Zika virus disease), and diabetic neuropathy. By conducting a sequela-level analysis of the health outcomes for these conditions, only cases where nervous system damage occurred were included, and YLDs were recalculated to isolate the non-fatal burden directly attributable to nervous system health loss. A comorbidity correction was used to calculate total prevalence of all conditions that affect the nervous system combined. FINDINGS: Globally, the 37 conditions affecting the nervous system were collectively ranked as the leading group cause of DALYs in 2021 (443 million, 95% UI 378–521), affecting 3·40 billion (3·20–3·62) individuals (43·1%, 40·5–45·9 of the global population); global DALY counts attributed to these conditions increased by 18·2% (8·7–26·7) between 1990 and 2021. Age-standardised rates of deaths per 100 000 people attributed to these conditions decreased from 1990 to 2021 by 33·6% (27·6–38·8), and age-standardised rates of DALYs attributed to these conditions decreased by 27·0% (21·5–32·4). Age-standardised prevalence was almost stable, with a change of 1·5% (0·7–2·4). The ten conditions with the highest age-standardised DALYs in 2021 were stroke, neonatal encephalopathy, migraine, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, diabetic neuropathy, meningitis, epilepsy, neurological complications due to preterm birth, autism spectrum disorder, and nervous system cancer. INTERPRETATION: As the leading cause of overall disease burden in the world, with increasing global DALY counts, effective prevention, treatment, and rehabilitation strategies for disorders affecting the nervous system are needed

Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950–2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020–21 COVID-19 pandemic period. Methods: 22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution. Findings: Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5–65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020–21; 5·1% [0·9–9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98–5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50–6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126–137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7–17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8–24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7–51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9–72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0–2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67–8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4–52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0–44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations. Interpretation: Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic