The trend is our friend: Risk parity, momentum and trend following in global asset allocation

We examine applying a trend following methodology to global asset allocation between equities, bonds, commodities and real estate. This strategy offers substantial improvement in risk-adjusted performance compared to buy-and-hold portfolios and a superior method of asset allocation than risk parity. We believe the discipline of trend following overcomes many of the behavioural biases investors succumb to, such as regret and herding, and offers a solution to the inappropriate sequence of returns which can be problematic for decumulation portfolios. The other side of behavioural biases is that they may be exploited by investors: an example is momentum investing where herding leads to continuation of returns and has been identified across many assets. Momentum and trend following differ as the former is a relative concept and the latter absolute. Combining both can achieve the higher return levels associated with momentum portfolios with much reduced volatility and drawdowns due to trend following. Measures based on utility of a representative investor reinforce the superiority of combining trend following with momentum strategies. These techniques help address the sequencing of returns issue which can be a serious issue for financial planning

Development of the preterm gut microbiome in twins at risk of necrotising enterocolitis and sepsis

The preterm gut microbiome is a complex dynamic community influenced by genetic and environmental factors and is implicated in the pathogenesis of necrotising enterocolitis (NEC) and sepsis. We aimed to explore the longitudinal development of the gut microbiome in preterm twins to determine how shared environmental and genetic factors may influence temporal changes and compared this to the expressed breast milk (EBM) microbiome. Stool samples (n = 173) from 27 infants (12 twin pairs and 1 triplet set) and EBM (n = 18) from 4 mothers were collected longitudinally. All samples underwent PCR-DGGE (denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis) analysis and a selected subset underwent 454 pyrosequencing. Stool and EBM shared a core microbiome dominated by Enterobacteriaceae, Enterococcaceae, and Staphylococcaceae. The gut microbiome showed greater similarity between siblings compared to unrelated individuals. Pyrosequencing revealed a reduction in diversity and increasing dominance of Escherichia sp. preceding NEC that was not observed in the healthy twin. Antibiotic treatment had a substantial effect on the gut microbiome, reducing Escherichia sp. and increasing other Enterobacteriaceae. This study demonstrates related preterm twins share similar gut microbiome development, even within the complex environment of neonatal intensive care. This is likely a result of shared genetic and immunomodulatory factors as well as exposure to the same maternal microbiome during birth, skin contact and exposure to EBM. Environmental factors including antibiotic exposure and feeding are additional significant determinants of community structure, regardless of host genetics

Multiple populations in globular clusters. Lessons learned from the Milky Way globular clusters

Recent progress in studies of globular clusters has shown that they are not simple stellar populations, being rather made of multiple generations. Evidence stems both from photometry and spectroscopy. A new paradigm is then arising for the formation of massive star clusters, which includes several episodes of star formation. While this provides an explanation for several features of globular clusters, including the second parameter problem, it also opens new perspectives about the relation between globular clusters and the halo of our Galaxy, and by extension of all populations with a high specific frequency of globular clusters, such as, e.g., giant elliptical galaxies. We review progress in this area, focusing on the most recent studies. Several points remain to be properly understood, in particular those concerning the nature of the polluters producing the abundance pattern in the clusters and the typical timescale, the range of cluster masses where this phenomenon is active, and the relation between globular clusters and other satellites of our Galaxy.Comment: In press (The Astronomy and Astrophysics Review

Two-sample mendelian randomization analysis of associations between periodontal disease and risk of cancer.

Background: Observational studies indicate that periodontal disease may increase the risk of colorectal, lung, and pancreatic cancers. Using a 2-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis, we assessed whether a genetic predisposition index for periodontal disease was associated with colorectal, lung, or pancreatic cancer risks. Methods: Our primary instrument included single nucleotide polymorphisms with strong genome-wide association study evidence for associations with chronic, aggressive, and/or severe periodontal disease (rs729876, rs1537415, rs2738058, rs12461706, rs16870060, rs2521634, rs3826782, and rs7762544). We used summary-level genetic data for colorectal cancer (n = 58 131 cases; Genetics and Epidemiology of Colorectal Cancer Consortium, Colon Cancer Family Registry, and Colorectal Transdisciplinary Study), lung cancer (n = 18 082 cases; International Lung Cancer Consortium), and pancreatic cancer (n = 9254 cases; Pancreatic Cancer Consortia). Four MR approaches were employed for this analysis: random-effects inverse-variance weighted (primary analyses), Mendelian Randomization-Pleiotropy RESidual Sum and Outlier, simple median, and weighted median. We conducted secondary analyses to determine if associations varied by cancer subtype (colorectal cancer location, lung cancer histology), sex (colorectal and pancreatic cancers), or smoking history (lung and pancreatic cancer). All statistical tests were 2-sided. Results: The genetic predisposition index for chronic or aggressive periodontitis was statistically significantly associated with a 3% increased risk of colorectal cancer (per unit increase in genetic index of periodontal disease; P = .03), 3% increased risk of colon cancer (P = .02), 4% increased risk of proximal colon cancer (P = .01), and 3% increased risk of colorectal cancer among females (P = .04); however, it was not statistically significantly associated with the risk of lung cancer or pancreatic cancer, overall or within most subgroups. Conclusions: Genetic predisposition to periodontitis may be associated with colorectal cancer risk. Further research should determine whether increased periodontitis prevention and increased cancer surveillance of patients with periodontitis is warranted

The study of atmospheric ice-nucleating particles via microfluidically generated droplets

Ice-nucleating particles (INPs) play a significant role in the climate and hydrological cycle by triggering ice formation in supercooled clouds, thereby causing precipitation and affecting cloud lifetimes and their radiative properties. However, despite their importance, INP often comprise only 1 in 10³–10⁶ ambient particles, making it difficult to ascertain and predict their type, source, and concentration. The typical techniques for quantifying INP concentrations tend to be highly labour-intensive, suffer from poor time resolution, or are limited in sensitivity to low concentrations. Here, we present the application of microfluidic devices to the study of atmospheric INPs via the simple and rapid production of monodisperse droplets and their subsequent freezing on a cold stage. This device offers the potential for the testing of INP concentrations in aqueous samples with high sensitivity and high counting statistics. Various INPs were tested for validation of the platform, including mineral dust and biological species, with results compared to literature values. We also describe a methodology for sampling atmospheric aerosol in a manner that minimises sampling biases and which is compatible with the microfluidic device. We present results for INP concentrations in air sampled during two field campaigns: (1) from a rural location in the UK and (2) during the UK’s annual Bonfire Night festival. These initial results will provide a route for deployment of the microfluidic platform for the study and quantification of INPs in upcoming field campaigns around the globe, while providing a benchmark for future lab-on-a-chip-based INP studies

Toxicity of Three Insecticides to Lysiphlebus fabarum, a Parasitoid of the Black Bean Aphid, Aphis fabae

The toxicity of three insecticides to Lysiphlebus fabarum (Marshall) (Hymenoptera: Braconidae: Aphidiinae), a parasitoid of Aphis fabae Scopoli (Hemiptera: Aphididae), was investigated using IOBC/wprs protocols. Abamectin 1.8 EC, imidacloprid 350 SC, and pymetrozine 25 WP were tested under laboratory conditions at recommended field rates. Immature stages of the parasitoid were exposed to materials by briefly dipping mummified aphids into insecticide solutions/suspensions or water (controls). Abamectin, imidacloprid, and pymetrozine caused 44.8, 58.5, and 14.5% mortality of mummies, respectively. Insecticides were also applied to broad bean foliage until run-off using a hand sprayer and the contact toxicity of residues was investigated after 1, 5, 16 and 30 day periods of outdoor weathering by caging adult wasps on treated plants for 24 h. One day-old residues of abamectin, imidacloprid, and pymetrozine produced 52.5, 90.0 and 57.0% mortality, respectively, and 5 day-old residues produced 28.1, 77.0 and 18.6% mortality. Sixteen day-old residues produced 8.8, 22.4 and 13.6% mortality, whereas 30 day-old residues produced 0.0, 3.2 and 1.1% mortality, respectively. On the basis of these results, abamectin and pymetrozine were classified as short-lived compounds (Class A) and imidacloprid as a slightly persistent compound (Class B)

Antiinflammatory Therapy with Canakinumab for Atherosclerotic Disease

Background: Experimental and clinical data suggest that reducing inflammation without affecting lipid levels may reduce the risk of cardiovascular disease. Yet, the inflammatory hypothesis of atherothrombosis has remained unproved. Methods: We conducted a randomized, double-blind trial of canakinumab, a therapeutic monoclonal antibody targeting interleukin-1β, involving 10,061 patients with previous myocardial infarction and a high-sensitivity C-reactive protein level of 2 mg or more per liter. The trial compared three doses of canakinumab (50 mg, 150 mg, and 300 mg, administered subcutaneously every 3 months) with placebo. The primary efficacy end point was nonfatal myocardial infarction, nonfatal stroke, or cardiovascular death. RESULTS: At 48 months, the median reduction from baseline in the high-sensitivity C-reactive protein level was 26 percentage points greater in the group that received the 50-mg dose of canakinumab, 37 percentage points greater in the 150-mg group, and 41 percentage points greater in the 300-mg group than in the placebo group. Canakinumab did not reduce lipid levels from baseline. At a median follow-up of 3.7 years, the incidence rate for the primary end point was 4.50 events per 100 person-years in the placebo group, 4.11 events per 100 person-years in the 50-mg group, 3.86 events per 100 person-years in the 150-mg group, and 3.90 events per 100 person-years in the 300-mg group. The hazard ratios as compared with placebo were as follows: in the 50-mg group, 0.93 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.80 to 1.07; P = 0.30); in the 150-mg group, 0.85 (95% CI, 0.74 to 0.98; P = 0.021); and in the 300-mg group, 0.86 (95% CI, 0.75 to 0.99; P = 0.031). The 150-mg dose, but not the other doses, met the prespecified multiplicity-adjusted threshold for statistical significance for the primary end point and the secondary end point that additionally included hospitalization for unstable angina that led to urgent revascularization (hazard ratio vs. placebo, 0.83; 95% CI, 0.73 to 0.95; P = 0.005). Canakinumab was associated with a higher incidence of fatal infection than was placebo. There was no significant difference in all-cause mortality (hazard ratio for all canakinumab doses vs. placebo, 0.94; 95% CI, 0.83 to 1.06; P = 0.31). Conclusions: Antiinflammatory therapy targeting the interleukin-1β innate immunity pathway with canakinumab at a dose of 150 mg every 3 months led to a significantly lower rate of recurrent cardiovascular events than placebo, independent of lipid-level lowering. (Funded by Novartis; CANTOS ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01327846.

Gallstones, cholecystectomy, and the risk for developing pancreatic cancer

We examined the relation between gallstones, cholecystectomy, and the development of pancreatic cancer in the Nurses' Health Study and the Health Professionals Follow-up Study. Among 104 856 women and 48 928 men without cancer at baseline, we documented 349 cases of pancreatic cancer during up to 16 years of follow-up. Participants were classified according to a history of gallstones or cholecystectomy. The age-adjusted relative risk of pancreatic cancer following cholecystectomy or diagnosis of gallstones was 1.31 (95% CI, 0.93–1.83). However, adjustment for other pancreatic cancer risk factors attenuated the association (RR=1.11, 95% CI, 0.78–1.56); this risk did not increase with increasing time following cholecystectomy or gallstones. Gallstones or cholecystectomy do not appear to be significant risk factors for pancreatic cancer

Familial association of pancreatic cancer with other malignancies in Swedish families

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to characterise the familial association of pancreatic cancer with other malignancies. METHODS: Relative risks (RRs) of pancreatic cancer according to family history of cancer were calculated using the updated Swedish Family-Cancer Database, which includes over 11.5 million individuals. Estimates were based on Poisson regression. RRs of tumours for individuals with a parental history of pancreatic cancer were also estimated. RESULTS: The risk of pancreatic cancer was elevated in individuals with a parental history of cancers of the liver (RR 1.41; 95% CI 1.10-1.81), kidney (RR 1.37; 95% CI 1.06-1.76), lung (RR 1.50; 95% CI 1.27-1.79) and larynx (RR 1.98; 95% CI 1.19-3.28). Associations were also found between parental history of pancreatic cancer and cancers of the small intestine, colon, breast, lung, testis and cervix in offspring. There was an increased risk of pancreatic cancer associated with early-onset breast cancer in siblings. CONCLUSION: Pancreatic cancer aggregates in families with several types of cancer. Smoking may contribute to the familial aggregation of pancreatic and lung tumours, and the familial clustering of pancreatic and breast cancer could be partially explained by inherited mutations in the BRCA2 gene. British Journal of Cancer (2009) 101, 1792-1797. doi: 10.1038/sj.bjc.6605363 www.bjcancer.com Published online 13 October 2009 (C) 2009 Cancer Research U

The efficacy of preopoerative instruction in reducing anxiety following gyneoncological surgery: a case control study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>This is a quasi-experimental case control research focusing on the impact of systematic preoperative instruction on the level of postoperative anxiety in gyneoncologic patients. The population studied consists of the gyneoncologic surgery patients admitted to the Gynecologic Oncology Service at Zekai Tahir Burak Gynecology Training and Research Hospital from May to September 2010.</p> <p>Patients and methods</p> <p>Through a random sampling, 60 patients were recruited in each group. The study group was given a systematic preoperative instruction while the control group was given routine nursing care. Patients were interviewed in the postoperative period and anxiety was measured. The data-collecting tool consisted of the Individual Information Form and the State-Trait Anxiety Inventory. The collected data were analyzed by using the SPSS Program to find the frequency, the percentage, the mean and the standard variables, and the hypothesis was tested with Chi-square, variance, and t-independent test.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>It was found that the incidence rates from the post-operative anxiety score of the study group were lower than those of the control group (p < .05). The results of this research demonstrated that gyneoncologic surgery patients who were given systematic preoperative instruction felt less anxious than the ones who were given merely a routine nursing care.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Results of this study suggest that preoperative instruction programs aiming at informing gyneoncologic surgery patients at the preoperative stage should be organized in hospitals and have an essential role.</p