Heavy rainfall episode over Mumbai on 26 July 2005: Assessment of NWP guidance

In the present work a qualitative assessment of guidance from NCMRWF operational global and regional Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) systems in the episode of unprecedented rainfall over Mumbai has been attempted. This also consolidates and examines the predictions that were provided by some of the leading global operational centres. Some hindcast runs were also made with different initial conditions. It reveals that the use of very high resolution global and regional models with advanced data assimilation techniques (4D Var), that optimally utilizes information from satellite observations, could significantly enhance the usefulness of NWP guidance

Synthesis, Magnetic Anisotropy and Optical Properties of Preferred Oriented Zinc Ferrite Nanowire Arrays

Preferred oriented ZnFe2O4 nanowire arrays with an average diameter of 16 nm were fabricated by post-annealing of ZnFe2 nanowires within anodic aluminum oxide templates in atmosphere. Selected area electron diffraction and X-ray diffraction exhibit that the nanowires are in cubic spinel-type structure with a [110] preferred crystallite orientation. Magnetic measurement indicates that the as-prepared ZnFe2O4 nanowire arrays reveal uniaxial magnetic anisotropy, and the easy magnetization direction is parallel to the axis of nanowire. The optical properties show the ZnFe2O4 nanowire arrays give out 370–520 nm blue-violet light, and their UV absorption edge is around 700 nm. The estimated values of direct and indirect band gaps for the nanowires are 2.23 and 1.73 eV, respectively

Antiinflammatory Therapy with Canakinumab for Atherosclerotic Disease

Background: Experimental and clinical data suggest that reducing inflammation without affecting lipid levels may reduce the risk of cardiovascular disease. Yet, the inflammatory hypothesis of atherothrombosis has remained unproved. Methods: We conducted a randomized, double-blind trial of canakinumab, a therapeutic monoclonal antibody targeting interleukin-1β, involving 10,061 patients with previous myocardial infarction and a high-sensitivity C-reactive protein level of 2 mg or more per liter. The trial compared three doses of canakinumab (50 mg, 150 mg, and 300 mg, administered subcutaneously every 3 months) with placebo. The primary efficacy end point was nonfatal myocardial infarction, nonfatal stroke, or cardiovascular death. RESULTS: At 48 months, the median reduction from baseline in the high-sensitivity C-reactive protein level was 26 percentage points greater in the group that received the 50-mg dose of canakinumab, 37 percentage points greater in the 150-mg group, and 41 percentage points greater in the 300-mg group than in the placebo group. Canakinumab did not reduce lipid levels from baseline. At a median follow-up of 3.7 years, the incidence rate for the primary end point was 4.50 events per 100 person-years in the placebo group, 4.11 events per 100 person-years in the 50-mg group, 3.86 events per 100 person-years in the 150-mg group, and 3.90 events per 100 person-years in the 300-mg group. The hazard ratios as compared with placebo were as follows: in the 50-mg group, 0.93 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.80 to 1.07; P = 0.30); in the 150-mg group, 0.85 (95% CI, 0.74 to 0.98; P = 0.021); and in the 300-mg group, 0.86 (95% CI, 0.75 to 0.99; P = 0.031). The 150-mg dose, but not the other doses, met the prespecified multiplicity-adjusted threshold for statistical significance for the primary end point and the secondary end point that additionally included hospitalization for unstable angina that led to urgent revascularization (hazard ratio vs. placebo, 0.83; 95% CI, 0.73 to 0.95; P = 0.005). Canakinumab was associated with a higher incidence of fatal infection than was placebo. There was no significant difference in all-cause mortality (hazard ratio for all canakinumab doses vs. placebo, 0.94; 95% CI, 0.83 to 1.06; P = 0.31). Conclusions: Antiinflammatory therapy targeting the interleukin-1β innate immunity pathway with canakinumab at a dose of 150 mg every 3 months led to a significantly lower rate of recurrent cardiovascular events than placebo, independent of lipid-level lowering. (Funded by Novartis; CANTOS ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01327846.

Evaluation of appendicitis risk prediction models in adults with suspected appendicitis

Background Appendicitis is the most common general surgical emergency worldwide, but its diagnosis remains challenging. The aim of this study was to determine whether existing risk prediction models can reliably identify patients presenting to hospital in the UK with acute right iliac fossa (RIF) pain who are at low risk of appendicitis. Methods A systematic search was completed to identify all existing appendicitis risk prediction models. Models were validated using UK data from an international prospective cohort study that captured consecutive patients aged 16–45 years presenting to hospital with acute RIF in March to June 2017. The main outcome was best achievable model specificity (proportion of patients who did not have appendicitis correctly classified as low risk) whilst maintaining a failure rate below 5 per cent (proportion of patients identified as low risk who actually had appendicitis). Results Some 5345 patients across 154 UK hospitals were identified, of which two‐thirds (3613 of 5345, 67·6 per cent) were women. Women were more than twice as likely to undergo surgery with removal of a histologically normal appendix (272 of 964, 28·2 per cent) than men (120 of 993, 12·1 per cent) (relative risk 2·33, 95 per cent c.i. 1·92 to 2·84; P < 0·001). Of 15 validated risk prediction models, the Adult Appendicitis Score performed best (cut‐off score 8 or less, specificity 63·1 per cent, failure rate 3·7 per cent). The Appendicitis Inflammatory Response Score performed best for men (cut‐off score 2 or less, specificity 24·7 per cent, failure rate 2·4 per cent). Conclusion Women in the UK had a disproportionate risk of admission without surgical intervention and had high rates of normal appendicectomy. Risk prediction models to support shared decision‐making by identifying adults in the UK at low risk of appendicitis were identified

Daily rainfall analysis for indian summer monsoon region

A simple method of daily rainfall analysis on a regular latitude by longitude grid over the Indian monsoon region is described. Daily rainfall estimates obtained from INSAT IR radiances and rain-gauge observations are combined to produce this analysis. A case of a typical westward moving monsoon depression during the 1994 monsoon season is chosen to present the characteristics of the rainfall analysed. The results obtained show that the analysis is able to represent adequately the large-scale distribution of the rainfall realized, which can further be used for modelling studies. By inserting rain-gauge observations it is seen that, in general, the final analysis removes the large negative bias imposed by the satellite estimates. Owing to the non-availability of the precipitable water estimates over mis region in real time, at present, there is a necessity to have alternative procedures for analysed rainfall distribution, especially for the purposes of physical initialization and other related applications of the tropical numerical weather prediction. When the Special Sensor Microwave Instrument (SSM/I) and other estimates from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission, etc. become available in future the present scheme will be able to include these new products also for improving the quality and representation of rainfall over oceanic region

Daily indian precipitation analysis formed from a merge of rain-gauge data with the TRMM TMPA satellite-derived rainfall estimates

The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI) and Precipitation Radar (PR) have enhanced the accuracy of rainfall estimation from satellites over ocean and land. An algorithm to merge TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) satellite estimates with the India Meteorological Department (IMD) rain-gauge values is tested for the Indian monsoon region. A daily merged gauge and satellite data product (NMSG) at 1° latitude-longitude resolution for the Indian monsoon region is prepared to depict the large-scale aspects of monsoon rainfall. The satellite product used as a first guess is the TRMM TMPA for daily estimates. Incorporation of IMD gauge data corrects the mean biases of the TMPA values. TMPA alone is able to depict the space-time distribution of monsoon rainfall patterns. The merging of gauge data enhances the value of the satellite information; therefore, the NMSG is more representative than TMPA. Daily, monthly, and seasonal fields are prepared and compared with the land-only gridded data of the India Meteorological Department National Climate Centre (IMDNCC) at the same resolution. This inter-comparison with another independent dataset confirms the utility of the NMSG, produced by this objective analysis algorithm. The comparison of the merged data with the TMPA data reveals the regions where the satellite estimates have mean biases. Objective statistical scores also confirm the goodness of NMSG. The NMSG data are meant for use in verification of large-scale rainfall features from numerical models for the monsoon region

On the impact of divergent part of the wind computed from INSAT OLR data on global analysis and forecast fields

In this paper, a procedure for the computation of the divergent part of wind from Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) data is described. This divergent part is included in the global analysis scheme and its impact is studied by computing the vertical velocity, velocity potential etc., using the analysed fields with and without modifying the divergent part and also making 24 hr and 48 hr rainfall forecasts. Results show that magnitudes of vertical velocity were increased when the divergent part was modified in the wind analysis. There were also changes observed in the analysed wind field over convective regions and the changes over the oceanic regions were higher, suggesting that the impact of divergent part is more pronounced over data sparse regions. Marginal increase was observed in 24 hr and 48 hr rainfall forecast over the Indian region. The area averaged rainfall forecast at each time step in the first 6 hours of model integration was also higher in the case when the wind field contained the divergent part. To sum up, it can be stated that the inclusion of the divergent part from OLR data in the initial wind field has brought out positive impact on the wind analyses and rainfall forecast

HETEROCYCLIC-COMPOUNDS CONTAINING ANTIMONY .1. SYNTHESIS, PHYSICOCHEMICAL PROPERTIES, CRYSTAL AND MOLECULAR-STRUCTURE OF 2-(BETA-HYDROXYETHYLTHIO) 1,3,2-OXATHIASTIBOLANE

The compound (HOCH2CH2S) ) Sb(SCH2CH2O)(1) has been prepared by the reaction of antimony(III) isopropoxide and 2-mercaptoethanol in a 1:2 molar ratio. Reaction of 1 with MOCH3 (where M = Li, Na and K) yields bimetallic products of the type, M[(OCH2CH2S) Sb(SCH2CH2O))]. All these derivatives have been characterized by elemental analysis, IR, NMR (1H and 13C) spectra and molar conductivity measurements. Crystals of 1 are triclinic, space group P1, with a = 6.449(2), b = 10.285(2), c = 13.494(1) &#197;, &#945; = 78.08(1), &#946; = 75.99(1), &#947; = 71.54(2)&#176;, V = 815.48 &#197;3, Z = 4, Dcalc = 2.239 g cm-3, (Mo K&#945;) &#955; = 0.7107 &#197;, &#956; = 3.55 mm-1, F(000) = 528, T = 295 K, final R = 0.0189 for 2344 reflections. One of the two mercaptoethanol moieties in 1 forms a five-membered chelate ring with antimony, Sb(1)---O(11) = 2.023(2) &#197; and Sb(1)---S(11) = 2.434(1) &#197;, while the other is bonded through the S atom only, Sb(1)---S(12) = 2.434(1) &#197;. The angles between these primary bonds with a mean value of 90.2&#176; suggest a basically pyramidal, or pseudo tetrahedral structure if the stereochemically active lone pair is included in the coordination sphere. Two molecules are linked by intermolecular hydrogen bridges. The presence of weak intermolecular secondary bonding, Sb(1)---O(12) = 2.567(3) &#197;, in the complex indicates that the overall coordination polyhedron is best described in terms of a distorted trigonal bipyramidal arrangement

Assessment of quality and impact of full resolution TOVS temperature profile data on the operational global data assimilation-forecast system of india

TOVS temperature profile data (SATEM) at its full resolution (85 km) has now become available in India on experimental basis. An attempt is made in this study to examine the quality and impact of this on the medium range forecasts over India and neighbourhood. For this purpose, a seven day period starting from 15 March 1996 is chosen to study the impact of the data on the global analysis-forecasting system operational in India. Though one week data is utilized for the impact study, the complete data of March 1996 is used for examining quality, representativeness and consistency of the retrievals. In the operational system of the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF), all types of data, including coarse resolution (500 km) global TOVS retrievals-coarse grid SATEM (CGS) data, received on GTS at hourly intervals are used in the assimilation cycle. For the present study the assimilation cycle is repeated for the above period by including high resolution data over the geographical regions covered by the New Delhi's high resolution picture transmission (HRPT) station and simultaneously removing coarse resolution SATEM data. The analysis and forecast fields thus generated are compared with the corresponding operational archives. The impact of the data is examined in terms of various objective scores and through circulation characteristics. The study reveals that the quality of high resolution SATEM (HRS) data is satisfactory and is such that it can be utilized in the global data assimilation system on real-time basis. A general improvement in the RMSE and ACC scores of the medium range forecasts is found over the data void equatorial sectors of the Indian Ocean after the incorporation of the HRS data fields in the assimilation cycle. With regard to a typical easterly wave activity of moderate intensity during the period of experimentation, a marginal modulation in low level vorticity and divergence forecasts is found to be improving the precipitation magnitudes over the south peninsular India as well

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